Age structure and income distribution policy

The dependence of earnings on age is a firmly established empirical fact. A simple microeconomic model of educational choice, being consistent with this observation, is designed. The model lends itself readily to aggregation over individuals and age groups. Thus, relations can be set up between economic variables influencing the aggregate distribution of labor incomes and demographic variables determining the age structure of the population. The main results of the present study are: 1) overall earnings inequality is shown to be an increasing function of life expectancy and a decreasing function of fertility. 2) The effectiveness of redistributive policies is sensitive to the age composition. In particular, the inequality-reducing effect of a 1% income tax rise is shown to be smaller the older the population.     

Remittances and the income distribution in Tonga

Receipt of remittances from migrants decreased the inequality of income in Tonga. Policies that attempt to affect migration or remittance flows, such as policies to improve the administration and collection of taxes, should take into account any undesirable effects on the distribution of income.     

The effects of income level,income distribution,education and urbanization on fertility rates among 28 administrative regions of China

Conflicting empirical evidence on the role of income distribution on fertility rates is the impetus for this 1982 study of providence-specific Chinese Census data, excluding Tibet. The findings support the prior thesis of Repetto but utilize the micromethods and per household income measures of the competing findings of Boulier. It is cautioned that in the Chinese analysis equal income distribution depresses fertility, but China may not reflect world wide patterns. China did not have until recently a market incentive system, and there are income measurement problems. The data are per capita economic output not per capita income, and those high output areas which did not produce low fertility may actually have had households with low incomes. The importance of this research is in establishing that cross-province data are a useful tool in understanding the influence of income distribution on fertility. As with most developing countries, women's education, for instance, at least junior high education explained the largest variation of fertility differences among the 28 provinces. The urbanization variable when controlling for income was positive, unlike the other developing countries. The 1949 Chinese government's spatial industrial policy encouraged urbanization and industrialization in rural areas and family planning programs such that highly urbanized provinces have low population density. A variety of variables on income level, income distribution, education, and urbanization are discussed. OLSQ regressions were generated utilizing such independent variables as output per capita in yuan (YOUTHPC80), the square of YOUTHPC80 (YOUTHPC802), YOUTHPC80 multiplied by the average family size in each province (YOUTHPH80), and the squared value of YOUTHPH80.     

How to measure segregation conditional on the distribution of covariates

This short paper proposes a nonparametric method for accounting for the distribution of background characteristics when testing for segregation in empirical studies. It is shown and exemplified – using data on workplace segregation between immigrants and natives in Sweden – how the method can be applied to correct any measure of segregation for differences between groups in the distribution of covariates by means of simulation and how analytical results can be used when studying segregation by means of peer group exposure.     

Government involvement in the economy and the distribution of income: A cross-national study

This study explores the effect of government involvement in the economy, as measured by central government expenditures as a percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), on the distribution of income. It is hypothesized that state spending — in the form of transfer payments to firms and households, government purchases, and military spending — will have a negative influence on income inequality only at high levels of economic development. Multivariate analysis confirms this hypothesis. The results show that government expenditures as a percent of GDP and level of industrialization interact to produce a negative impact on income inequality. This finding, moreover, holds up after additional investigation for possible OLS assumption violations, sample dependence of results, and model misspecification. This paper was presented at the 1988 annual meeting of the American Sociological Association.     

The variance of population characteristics in stable populations, with applications to the distribution of income

Summary Stable population theory has recently been used to analyse the effects of changes in fertility and mortality on economic variables such as income per head. In this paper more general results are derived to describe the effects of changing vital rates on the variance and higher moments of the distribution of some age-dependent variable. Simple analytical expressions are derived which decompose the effects of changes in age structure into the effects on inter-cohort and intra-cohort variance. The results are easily applied to standard measures of the distribution of income. By combining the analytical results with actual age profiles of income and income variance from the United States and Brazil it is observed that both the magnitude and direction of the effects of population growth on measured inequality are sensitive to the specific age profiles used. The most surprising result is that the Brazilian age profiles suggest that higher growth rates may actually reduce measured inequality, although the effect is relatively small.     

A Kin-Based measure of r and an evaluation of its effectiveness

A relation is shown between r and the ratio (S) of those living who are youngest in their sibsets to those who are oldest. This extends Goldman's work on the relation between r and the ratio (Z) of younger to older ever born sisters. Solved for r, these relations provide kin-based measures of r. Tested against microsimulated population data, the S-based measure, though working from fewer observations per population, performs as well or better than any Z-based measure. Since the data needed to compute S make considerably fewer demands on respondents' knowledge, the S-based measure appears preferable in actual application.     

Stochastic indicators of income mobility

Income mobility is one of the indicators of social mobility. This study explains the methodology in estimating the stochastic indicators of income mobility in Canada using aggregate time series data. Assuming stationary finite Markov chain approximation of the mobility process, the probabilities of transition from one income stratum to another was estimated. The absolute minimum deviation criterion has been employed for the period 1946–72. This investigation suggests that, on an annual basis, there was low degree of upward income mobility in Canada.     

Physical capital taxation and labor income taxation in an endogenous growth model with new generations

This paper examines the growth and welfare effects of physical capital taxation and labor income taxation. It is found that the impact of a rise in the physical capital tax rate on the balanced growth rate is crucially related to the birth rate, but a rise in the labor income tax rate definitely reduces the balanced growth rate regardless of the birth rate. It is also found that an increase in the physical capital income tax rate will harm the older but will benefit the younger, while an increase in the labor income tax rate will benefit the older but will harm the younger.

The effect of income on fertility

Abstract Cross-sectional data and long-period time series data have generally shown an inverse relationship between income and fertility. But short-period time series data over the business cycle have shown a direct relationship. The first part of this paper resolves this apparent paradox by showing that it arises from a statistical illusion-specification bias due to omitted lagged variables. The second part of the paper then considers the likely unconditional effect of income on fertility in several sorts of situations: (a) secular income increase in less developed countries; (b) cyclical income change in industrialized countries; (c) secular income increase in industrialized countries; and (d) incentive payments for higher and lower fertility.     

Postcensal estimates of household income distributions

This article develops and evaluates a method for deriving postcensal estimates of household income distributions for counties. A modified lognormal probability curve is used as a model of income distribution. The function is closely related to the classical lognormal model, but it contains a nonlinear component in its derivation. Simulated postcensal estimates of household income distributions are compared with 1980 census data for the counties in California. The results indicate that the modified lognormal curve approximates observed income distributions well and produces reliable postcensal estimates for areas with a wide variety of median income levels and numbers of households.     

Demographic change and the labour share of income

Despite similar levels of per capita income, education and technology, the development of labour income shares in OECD countries has displayed different patterns since 1960. The paper examines the role of demography in this regard. We first use a standard overlapping generations model to derive the mechanisms by which demographic change can affect the labour share. It turns out that demographic change can affect the labour share either by altering the domestic capital intensity, by causing factor-biased technological change or in a small open economy framework by creating a gap between domestic savings and investments. The latter affects the country’s investments abroad and in return its net foreign asset income which directly leads to changes in the labour share. Empirical estimations based on these insights, provide evidence that an increases in the expected retirement durations and old-age dependency ratios as well as declines in labour force growth rates have indeed been major forces behind the decline in labour shares that took place in many countries. These effects tend to be larger in open economies and pension reforms towards a funded pension system seem to have accelerated the effects.     

Developing an instrument to measure satisfaction with continuity of midwifery care drawing on the Delphi technique

BackgroundMaternal satisfaction with maternity care is an important indicator of quality maternity services. Continuity of midwifery models of care are increasing in Australia and while several instruments have been developed to measure satisfaction with maternity care most of these have not been validated and there are none that are appropriate to continuity of midwifery maternity care models.AimTo develop a questionnaire to measure women’s satisfaction with maternity services provided in a continuity of midwifery care service model.MethodsA modified Delphi technique was used. A heterogenous panel of eight experts provided feedback over four rounds. The starting point for the questionnaire was informed by two systematic literature reviews focusing on available instruments for measuring maternal satisfaction with maternity care and what women value continuity of midwifery models of care.FindingsThe Continuity of Midwifery Care Satisfaction Survey (COMcareSS) was developed after four rounds of feedback with the expert panel. The survey comprises nine domains and fifty-nine questions. The domains include demographics, maternity care outcomes, facilities, the midwife/woman relationship, building capacity-empowerment, decision making and involvement, personalised care, advice care and support and general.ConclusionsConsumer satisfaction is an important indicator of quality care. This is the first instrument to be developed that is appropriate to continuity of midwifery models of care. The important next step is to pilot test the instrument to establish its validity and reliability.     

The effect of schooling on income in Japan

This paper uses cross-sectional data from the 1955, 1965, and 1975 Social Stratification and Mobility Surveys to investigate the effect of schooling on personal income in the Japanese male labor force. For each survey, log-income regressions are estimated which include (in addition to controls for years of work experience) two variables to indicate educational attainment: (1) years of schooling completed, and (2) percentile ranking in the distribution of years of schooling for one's age-cohort. The effect of the first educational variable may be interpreted as the human capital effect of schooling. The effect of the second educational variable may be interpreted as the screening or credentialing effect of schooling. The results indicate that controlling for the credentialing effect of schooling significantly reduces the net effect of schooling as human capital. Regression decomposition is then used to ascertain the components of the growth in mean log-income between 1955 and 1975. The contribution of years of schooling to the increase in mean log-income across these decades is significantly reduced after controlling for the credentialing effect.     

The age distribution of an industrial group (Scottish Railwaymen)

The age structure of the workers in an old-established industry, and the problems which might arise from it, formed the subject of the investigation. It was found that the group was atypical in that, in addition to having a higher average age than that of the total working population of Scotland, the age distribution was bimodal, with a marked excess in the S o + and a marked deficiency in the 3 5-44 age group. The bimodality was due to high recruitment after the first world war, followed by a low one a few years later. The bimodality was especially marked among footplatemen.

On the basis of age structure it is very difficult to identify grades to which older workers might be transferred. Certain receiving grades which " accommodate " the less healthy (and potentially also the older workers) were found to be relatively small in size compared with the operating grades, footplatemen or signalmen.

Projections were made to explore some of the repercussions of converting the age structure of a bimodal distribution to a standard, the working population of Scotland. There were three assumptions on total size : maintaining the size, a slow fall to 70% and a rapid fall to 70%. Within each of these there were three assumptions on sickness absence, drawn from experience of Scottish railwaymen and particularly footplatemen. These effects are described in the paper. They are not policy recommendations of what should happen ; they are indications of what might happen in certain circumstances. In a bimodal distribution it is easy to effect a reduction in total numbers by a reduction in recruitment, but the consequential longer term fluctuations in numbers are substantial and in sickness absence more so.

Those concerned with problems arising from recruitment, redundancy and age structures of working populations could get useful information by using appropriately realistic assumptions.     

Determining the initial age distribution for an age structured population

"This paper deals with an inverse problem in age-structured population dynamics; the recovery of an unknown initial age distribution. We attempt to recover this function from overposed data which consists of either the total population over a time interval equal to the maximum life span of the species or the age structure of the population at a fixed later time. Existence, uniqueness and continuous dependence of the initial distribution function on the data are addressed. Some numerical simulations are presented to illustrate the feasibility of recovery using the methods of the paper."     

A test of the Easterlin fertility model using income

An important dimension of Easterlin's seminal work on fertility is the hypothesis of intergenerational taste formation, or the relative income hypothesis. Previous estimates have not had data on income in two generations, so the estimated own-income effects may have had a downward bias. This article uses data with income from two generations to estimate the Easterlin model directly. Own income is still not positively significant. A simple single-equation test is developed to distinguish this model from a Becker intergenerational serially correlated endowments model that he claims is observationally equivalent. The test results favor the Becker formulation.     

Voluntary income sharing and the design of unemployment insurance

This paper uses a model of search unemployment to discuss the interaction between publicly provided insurance and informal insurance through voluntary income sharing, e.g., between spouses. Income sharing reduces the optimal level of public unemployment insurance. While it is always individually rational for partners to share income, the effect of voluntary income sharing on welfare will be negative unless partners can either observe each other's search behavior or are sufficiently altruistic towards each other. The model is also used to examine a family-based policy. The welfare gains from using such policy are argued to be small. Received: 14 December 2000/Accepted: 5 November 2001