The dependence of marriage migrations in Japan on personal factors and ecological variables

Marriage is an important migration‐inducing life‐cycle event. This paper uses a nested logit model to explain the interprefectural migration behaviors at marriage by personal factors and prefectural attributes, based on the micro data of the 1986 national migration survey of Japan. Before marriage, each person is considered a potential migrant making a two‐level decision: (1) to stay or depart and (2) to choose a destination. The main findings are as follows.

Destination choice propensities were affected by such attributes of potential destination as income (+), employment growth (+), distance (‐), contiguity (+), and linguistic similarity (+). Non‐natives appeared to be less sensitive to the attraction of economic opportunities. Personal factors were less important than prefectural attributes in affecting destination choice propensities.

Departure propensities were affected by not only such attributes of origin prefecture as income (‐), employment growth (‐), and population density (+) but also the “inclusive variable”; (+), which reflected the attractiveness of the rest of the system. Despite being strongly emphasized in the literature, sibling status was less important than gender, nativity and education in affecting departure propensities. Personal factors were much more important than prefectural attributes in determining the departure propensities.     

Explaining hierarchical and interprovincial migrations of Chinese young adults by personal factors and place attributes: a nested logit analysis

"This paper uses a two-level nested logit model to explain the inter-stratum (city, town and rural county) and interprovincial migration behaviors of the young adults (aged 17-29) in China during a three-year period (1985-87), based on the micro data of the 1987 National Population Survey. The migration propensity of each person is represented by a departure probability and a destination choice probability. These probabilities are then expressed as functions of personal factors and place attributes. The main findings are that personal factors are of paramount importance in explaining the departure behaviors, and that both departure and destination behaviors responded to market forces in a sensible way, despite government control on territorial movements."     

The effects of demographic factors,family background,and early job achievement on age at marriage

National data for ever-married men aged 20 to 65 in March 1973 are utilized to estimate least squares and log-linear structural equation models of age at marriage. We demonstrate that most characteristics of family background (including both the family structure and its socioeconomic standing) are irrelevant in their effect on age at marriage. Intercohort trends are not explicable with reference to the changing socioeconomic, ethnic, or nativity compositions of the cohorts. Regional differences in age at marriage have persisted over the years in only slightly diminished form and cannot be explained by reference to the nativity, ethnic, or socioeconomic compositions of the regions. Early job status relates only weakly to age at marriage. Only those activities that are time-consuming or otherwise disruptive of the smooth operation of normal life-cycle processes during the transition from adolescence to adulthood (such as college attendance and service in the military) seriously affect the age at which a man marries.     

The institution of marriage

The institution of marriage is both old and ubiquitous. Yet, little work has been done by economists on why this social institution exists and why throughout history it has been intimately linked to fertility. We explain the institution of marriage as a societal consensus on the need to curb cuckoldry for the purpose of paternity certainty and biparental investment in offspring. By raising the costs of mating to individuals, marriage reduces cheating in society, a source of mating market failure, and makes paternity more certain. Men, in consequence, invest more in their putative offspring, a fact that also benefits mothers.     

Age at marriage,family planning practices,and other variables as correlates of fertility in Korea

The relationships between fertility and thirteen variables are examined in three groups of married Korean women, about 400 each from urban, rural, and semi-rural areas. Data were obtained by interview. Age at marriage and family planning practice are the strongest predictors of fertility and account for about 10 percent and 7 percent of the total variance, respectively. Other factors which accounted for lesser fractions of variability are ideal number of children, rural versus urban residence, education, aspiration for daughters, exposure to mass media, and economic status. Most of the relationships appear to be stable over time; others, which are associated with modernization, appear to be changing. The thirteen variables combined can account for a maximum of 40 percent of the variance in fertility.     

The impact of welfare reform on marriage and divorce

The goal of the 1996 Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act was to end needy parents' dependence on governmental benefits, in part by promoting marriage. The prereform welfare system was widely believed to discourage marriage because it provided benefits primarily to single mothers. However, welfare reform may have actually decreased the incentives to be married by giving women greater financial independence via the program's new emphasis on work. This article uses vital statistics data on marriages and divorces during 1989-2000 to examine the role of welfare reform (state waivers and implementation of Temporary Assistance to Needy Families) and other state-level variables on flows into and out of marriage. The results indicate that welfare reform has led to fewer new divorces and fewer new marriages, although the latter result is sensitive to specification and the choice of data.     

The effect of housing on migrations in Israel: 1988-1994

The analysis of 1988–1994 statistical data indicates that the population of Israel simultaneously moves in two opposite directions: while the initial distribution of new immigrants is primarily focused on the areas where jobs are available, the existing population of these areas tends to move outward, to the less populated districts where housing is more available and affordable. The paper thus argues that the heterogeneity of the population is indeed a crucial consideration for the proper modeling of migration behavior. It is also argued that a) the effect of housing construction on the patterns of in-country migration appears to be attenuated, and b) the low attractiveness of peripheral districts of the country to the new immigrants is mainly caused by a lack of jobs rather than by low rates of housing construction or the harsh climatic conditions of these areas. Received: 22 January 1997 / Accepted: 12 January 1998     

The status of unmarried Hong Kong women and the social factors contributing to their delayed marriage

Summary The Dixon model, which assesses the factors responsible for a rise in marriage age, has been applied to a number of Hong Kong women, aged from 20 to 24 in 1973, who were interviewed in depth. Four of them have delayed marriage due to the unavailability of mates, in particular the new marriage style and difficulty of locating a companionable mate. For 21 marriage was not economically feasible. Three anticipated they would lose too many opportunities by early marriage which was consequently undesirable at that time; only one sought to gain opportunities by a young marriage. All three factors work in concert to some extent. The age structure contributes to women's participation in the labour force and they could meet neither their obligations to their families nor to themselves by marrying early. Delayed marriage enhances women's status, and is an attractive policy for the developing world.     

The effect of divorce costs on marriage formation and dissolution

Exploiting the theoretical parallels between the matching of workers to jobs in the labour market and the matching of individuals in the marriage market, we use a search theoretic model of marriage formation and dissolution to examine the effect of divorce costs on both decisions. By introducing learning at both stages of the marital decision process, we show that divorce costs not only affect the probability of divorce but also the probability of marriage. Interestingly, to what extent divorce costs affect the marital status distribution depends on the information regarding the quality of the potential marriage that individuals receive while encountering marital offers. Received: 30 July 1996/Accepted: 7 December 1998     

The marriage premium and compensating wage differentials

This paper proposes and tests an alternative explanation of the marriage premium that relies upon differences in workers' tastes and compensating wage differentials. A key assumption is that marital status proxies for the consumption of family goods — such as children; and that these are costly. Workers whose greater demands for family goods are taste-generated are shown to choose jobs that offer greater wage, and lesser nonpecuniary compensation. This creates an observed wage premium that has nothing to do with differences in workers' productivities. Supporting empirical evidence for this hypothesis is presented, including a reevaluation of previous studies.     

The mathematics of sex and marriage,revisited

We analyze the problem of modeling marriages in a two‐sex model of population dynamics. We first deal with the problem of incomplete and inconsistent census data and then use a simulator to compare the performance of a variety of marriage functions in modeling births and couples during the ten‐year period between consecutive U.S. censuses. Unlike most empirical methods for comparing marriage functions based on goodness of fit, the differences in the projections of the various functions in our method are of the same magnitude (or even smaller) than the errors between the projected and real data. We observe that for the population of the United States, the harmonic mean function frequently found and used in the literature is a quite poor performer when compared with many other functions in the family we use.     

Human migrations and mosquito-borne diseases in Africa

ABSTRACT

The efficacy of border screening as a prophylactic measure against mosquito-borne diseases in Africa depends on the value of the lower bound of the basic reproduction number. If this lower bound is greater than one, then border screening may be ineffective. In this case, the best prophylaxis is to isolate and treat patients in their region of residence.     

The new marriage law and planned birth]

The New Marriage Law was passed during the Fifth National People's Congress. It raised the minimum marriage age from 20 years for men and 18 years for women stipulated by the Old Marriage Law to 22 years for men and 20 years for women. It also differs from the Old Marriage Law in that it strengthens its encouragement of late marriage, late births and birth control, emphasizes that birth planning is the duty of both husband and wife, and prohibits marriage of collateral blood relations within 3 generations (the Old Marriage Law's standard was "to follow custom"). A third of the provisions of the New Marriage Law concern family planning, of which the first 3 clauses are the most important: 1) To set guidelines for the relationship between marriage and family: the New Marriage Law is concerned with not just the family, but also marriage and birth and expects all citizens to comply with and protect these standards. 2) To implement freedom in marriage--equality for men and women; to protect the rights of women, children, and the aged; to implement planned birth. 3) To prohibit any action that prevents freedom of marriage, such as marriage on a mercenary basis and to prohibit financial profit from marriages. Other clauses include: 1) direct blood relations and victims of leprosy or other diseases determined unmarriageable by the medical profession are prohibited from marriage; 2) after marriage registration and with the mutual agreement of both parties, either partner can become a member of the other's family; children can take either parent's surname; both partners have mutual rights of inheritance, as do parents and children. In Heilungjiang Province, data from September 1980 show that 87.5% of its fertile women used contraceptives. From January to September 1980 85.6% married late; the rate of applications for One Child Certificates was 80%. By 1979 the rate of natural population increase was 10.14/1000.     

The impact of the labour market on the timing of marriage and births in Spain

This paper investigates how education and the labour market affect Spanish individual decisions on the timing of marriage and births, using a Cox hazard approach. It disentangles men and women, and two groups, Cohort 1945–1960 and Cohort 1961–1977. Results show that female employment delays marriage in Cohort 1945–1960, but it has a reverse effect in Cohort 1961–1977. We also find evidence that employment is a barrier for family formation since employed women postpone births in both cohorts. The precarious Spanish labour markets, captured by female unemployment rates, delay family formation, especially by putting off marriage. Male unemployment, at the individual level, impacts negatively on fertility only through delaying marriage.

The influence of same-sex marriage on the understanding of same-sex relationships

This study examines the ways in which legally recognized same-sex marriage affects the understanding of same-sex romantic relationships for lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgendered (LGBT) individuals. Participants (N = 288) responded to an open-ended Web-based survey asking them to describe how legally recognized same-sex marriage influenced their view of their own romantic relationship or romantic relationships in general. Results indicate that legally recognized same-sex marriage impacted participants' understanding of romantic relationships by making existing relationships seem more real and by serving as a tool through which participants realized their desires for ideal potential partner and relationship characteristics. The results suggest that legally recognized same-sex marriage is seen as both beneficial and challenging for samesex couples.     

The conflicting effects of delayed marriage and declining divorce rates on cumulative fertility in Indonesia

The impact of nuptiality patterns on fertility in Indonesia is examined with multivariate analysis controlling for 8 socioeconomic variables. Data were obtained from the 1987 Indonesian Contraceptive Prevalence Survey. Marriage is usually universal by age 35, and in this study all women 30 years had been married at least once. 20% were married at 15 years and 45% married at 18 years. For those married more than once, prevalence of 1st marriage was 7% for women 15-24 years, 15% for 25-34 years, and 29% for 35-49 years. In 1976 and 1987, the age at 1st marriage and number of times married were both strongly and negatively correlated. The % never marrying between 15-49 years rose from 21.5% to 26.4% between 1980-87. Cumulative fertility w as related to both age at 1st marriage and number of times married. Muslim women, women in Java and Bali, and rural women all marry at younger ages. 27% of the variance in age at 1st marriage is explained by women aged 25-34, current residence, region, religion, language, education, and work or not before marriage. The number of times married is also associated with socioeconomic characteristics without control, i.e., Muslim women 25-34 years were 3 times more likely to have been married more than once than in other faiths. With controls for socioeconomic factors, only 13% of the variance is explained and being Muslim has no statistically significant effect. The important net effects were being interviewed in Balinese, age, and age at 1st marriage. In the analysis of cumulative fertility, age at 1st marriage consistently is related to cumulative fertility in almost every socioeconomic group when age and number of times married is controlled for. Women married more than once have lower fertility. 36% of the variance is explained by all the variables. Being married more than once leads to having 2.1 fewer children. A 5-year delay in marriage leads to .75-1.1 fewer children. When other variables are controlled for, neither educational level nor prior work experience has a statistically significant effect on cumulative fertility. In the contraception analysis, women married more than once used contraception less. Among women 35-49, those marrying later had higher contraceptive use, but in general contraceptive use declined with age. More information is needed on why marriage patterns are changing.     

The temporal relationship of marriage,conception, and birth in Massachusetts

An investigation into the timing of first births in relationship to the date of marriage in Massachusetts confirmed the finding of previous national and local birth timing studies that first births likely to have been conceived before the marriage of their parents constitute a substantial proportion of all first births. The differential frequency of premaritally conceived births among various subgroups appeared to account for the variation noted in the overall timing patterns of first births after marriage. Data were gathered through linkage of certificates of birth of a sample of legitimate first children with the marriage record of their parents. Analysis of the marriage-first birth interval by maternal age and race, type of marriage ceremony, and occupation of the bride and groom were conducted and comparisons with previously published data were made. Separate consideration was given to the frequency and characteristics of those births likely to be premaritally conceived and those likely to have been conceived after the wedding.     

日本改善生态环境和实施可持续发展战略的经验启示

日本随着改善生态环境和可持续发展战略的实施,其环境保护职能在以环境省为主体的环保组织体系的成功运作下,取得了良好的成效,获得了许多先进经验。本文在此基础上针对我国现实,对我国实行生态环境保护和实施可持续发展的可能性、必要性及初步的操作设想作了探讨。     

The influence of women’s work opportunities on marriage rates

Several authors have argued that increased work opportunities for women have helped to produce a reduction in the average age at marriage in the United States. This paper tests this proposition on data for the 100 largest SMSA's in 1960. Using ordinary least-squares regression, we find that areas of relatively attractive female employment opportunities had relatively low proportions of women ever married in the age interval 22-24. Other variables significantly related to the proportion married in an SMSA are its sex ratio, percent Catholic, and number of inhabitants. A decline in the sex ratio and improvements in female employment opportunities appear to have been equally influential in producing declines in proportions married between 1960 and 1970.