中东阿拉伯国家金融自由化探析

金融全球化是经济全球化的核心,而金融自由化则是金融全球化的重要组成部分。20世纪七十年代以来全球开始了以放松金融管制为主要内容的金融自由化进程。中东阿拉伯国家的金融自由化是其宏观经济改革战略的一部分,它力图通过自由化、现代化、提高透明度以及加强风险监管来提高金融中介效率。中东金融改革是一种渐进式的改革,包括货币政策改革、银行体系自由化和开放资本市场。中东金融体系已经成为世界金融体系的一部分,但在金融效率、深度和竞争力方面与发达国家和新兴国家相比还有很大的差距。     

Trust and social capital in the regulation of lending activities

When a bank grants a loan, it takes the risk that the borrower will not honor his debt. To reduce this uncertainty, banks have created instrumental evaluation methods in order to try to evaluate the risk more objectively. An analysis of financial counselors’ practices shows the limits of these methods. To obtain information needed for the financial risk evaluation and to reduce the information asymmetry between bankers and borrowers, financial counselors integrate social networks to establish bonds of trust and to accumulate social capital. The quality of the social bond determines the quality of the gathered information and therefore the quality of the risk evaluation. Bank management is aware of the limits of instrumental methods and the importance of social risk evaluation. To improve their economic efficiency, they modify their work organization and their management practices so as to facilitate the emergence of a bond of trust and the accumulation of social capital by their financial counselors. The analysis of economic actors’ speech and behavior involved in activities of credit shows that behind the claimed altruism nature of the trust relationship exists an economic rationality whose social and temporal horizons of optimization differ from the model of the trade exchange seen in conventional economic theory.     

Is Bigger Really Better?

This study investigates the effect of a capital facilities project on nonprofit financial vulnerability metrics. The author employs a difference‐in‐differences technique to model the relationship between facilities investments and financial vulnerability indicators using data for a matched‐pair sample of nonprofit organizations that invested and did not invest in a facilities project. Overall the findings suggest that investments in facilities are associated with temporary increases in an organization's net assets ratio and decreases in its surplus ratio after a project is completed, and that the costs associated with facilities projects (for example, debt) place strain on nonprofit finances. The study's findings have implications for the financial management of nonprofit organizations, particularly in regard to the associated costs of capital expansion.     

‘I guess it’s kind of elitist’: the formation and mobilisation of cultural,social and physical capital in youth sport volunteering

Policy and research portray sport volunteering as a means by which young people can develop skills and perform active citizenship. This paper draws on qualitative research with participants in a UK sport volunteering programme to critically examine young people’s volunteering journeys and how these are shaped by their formation and mobilisation of capital. The results show how programme structures and practices, such as selection criteria, privilege young people with higher levels of cultural and physical capital, and afford these youth additional opportunities to accumulate and mobilise cultural and social capital. The paper argues for a more critical understanding of youth sport volunteering; one that recognises that sport volunteering can reserve the practice of active citizenship for privileged youth.     

The Role of Family Background in the Heterogeneity of Self-Employment in Some Transition Countries

Aim of this paper is to shed light on how some determinants, especially in the spheres of family background, differently affect the heterogeneous category of self-employment across four transition countries of Central and Eastern Europe (Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovak Republic), where more or less restrictive policies towards start-ups have been implemented during the pre-1989 years, different liberalization processes have gradually been carried out and distinct policy interventions to support self-employment have been adopted in the post-1989 period. At this end, three-stage structural multinomial logit models as discrete choice models are estimated on 2005 EU-SILC data, which also allows to account for generational changes over time. Country-specific profiles of self-employment are drawn and, even though the self-employment is often devised in a dualist perspective, which stresses its marginal nature as refuge from poverty rather than a way to accumulate capital, significant differentiations within the ranks of self-employed also exist.     

INTERNATIONAL TAX COMPETITION AND THE DEFICIT BIAS

I analyze the dynamic effects of tax competition on public budget deficits. I find that stronger tax competition leads to a fiscal deficit bias at the early stages of financial liberalization. When countries differ in terms of capital mobility, further liberalization leads to external imbalances and diverging fiscal deficits while corporate tax rates converge. Consistent with theory, I find that stronger tax competition increases deficits in a sample of OECD countries, controlling for tax revenues and other standard determinants of fiscal deficits. (JEL E62, F62)     

服务经济发展对金融监管制度的要求研究

服务经济环境下,金融业发展呈现出金融手段信息化、金融发展自由化等特征,对金融监管提出了更高的要求。金融监管的核心要解决好两大关系,即金融自由化与金融监管、金融创新与金融监管的关系。我国传统金融监管与当前服务经济发展的要求存在一定的差异,应借鉴国外服务经济先行国家金融监管的经验与教训,结合中国服务经济发展的实践要求,构建国内金融监管制度和先行试点。     

“国际货币体系再思考——布雷顿森林体系会议70周年后”国际研讨会纪要

国际货币体系需要改革,改革的方向包括:对主要货币发行国施加国际约束,加强IMF的作用,设立货币锚,建立全球性或地区性的金融支持系统,解决全球流动性失衡,国际货币体系的过渡等。西方6国中央银行签署货币多边互换协议,是否成为未来国际货币体系的演变方向值得关注。中国要积极稳妥地加快资本账户开放,加快国内结构性调整,消除金融市场各种风险隐患,这是人民币国际化的治本之策。     

国际收支结构变动的理论和实践及其对中国的政策含义

国际收支平衡问题主要是围绕经常项目的平衡来展开。经常项目里主要有贸易项和投资收入项。根据国际收支克劳瑟模型理论,一国在发展过程中要经历不同阶段,随着一国国民收入水平的变化,这个国家的国际收支将发生一系列的变化。美国和亚洲国家国际收支情况的演变过程,基本符合克劳瑟模型理论,但中国是一个例外。东南亚金融危机后,中国成为世界上最重要的资本输出国,却以投资收入逆差为代价。这不仅造成巨大的福利损失,还导致了一系列的发展难题。中国应考虑是否还要继续充当资本输出国和继续积累外汇储备。     

Investing in Turbulent Times: The Investment Behavior of Polish Firms in the Early Transition

We examine the investment behavior of a sample of Polish industrial firms over the period 1991–1993 by means of a model that views investment flows as part of the firm’s effort to adjust its assets and liabilities so as to maximize the returns to the firm. We argue that the application of neoclassical models of investment is more appropriate in cases where net investment is positive and where the returns to other assets and costs of liabilities are stable. If firms are seeking to reduce their capital stock, then the major constraints are not financial but rather set by the speed of physical depreciation. If the returns to other assets or the costs of liabilities change, then the firm will be forced to reconfigure its balance sheet in a way that may be inconsistent with the neoclassical model of investment. This paper examines the adjustments undertaken by Polish firms and shows that firms that did make positive net investments in this period were influenced by their capital intensity, profitability and by their costs of and returns to financial assets. The explanatory power of the model is relatively high when compared to previous studies of the investment behavior of firms in the early years of transition.     

The Rate of Return on Investment in Wine

Is wine an investment alternative to stocks and bonds? First, we review prior studies regarding the pecuniary rate of return to wine and other alternatives to financial assets. Next, we calculate the rate of return to holding red Bordeaux wine from 1986 to 1996 using a repeat‐sale regression. Finally, we contrast the financial performance of wine, both on an aggregate basis and for various portfolios, to that of other asset classes. We conclude that wine does not yield greater returns than financial assets, especially when the volatility of returns and transaction costs are taken into account.     

The Effects of Capital Campaigns on Other Nonprofits’ Fundraising

This study focuses on the effects of capital campaigns on the fundraising performance of other nonprofits within the same geographic region. Drawing from research in organizational ecology and charitable giving, we offer a theory of capital campaign impact that says any impact of a campaign must be looked for in a carefully circumscribed area or population of organizations, and that campaigns raise awareness of the need for services within a particular area. We use data on capital campaigns at arts nonprofit organizations in forty‐eight counties across the United States between 1999 and 2007, coupled with financial data on nonprofits in the arts in the same county to test our hypotheses. The results from our analyses show that a major capital campaign positively affects other nonprofits’ fundraising, and the effect varies depending on the phase of the capital campaign. We discuss possible mechanisms that drive the positive effects of capital campaigns, and conclude with a short illustration.     

VALUING PETROLEUM RESERVES USING CURRENT NET PRICE

Miller and Upton propose the "Hotelling Valuation Principle": producing mineral reserves can be valued by multiplying the mineral's current net price by the reserve estimate. Adelman argues that, by omitting production constraints, the Hotelling value provides an upper bound on oil reserve value. Others claim oil reserves are options on oil, with the Hotelling value being a lower bound on their value. In an optimizing model of oil production we incorporate uncertainty and production constraints and find that the Hotelling value is a theoretical upper bound on value. We also find that a modified net price rule approximates reserve value. ( JEL Q41, G13, G12)     

International Transmission Effect of Volatility between the Financial Markets during the Asian Financial Crisis

In this paper I propose an analysis of interaction among global economies by focusing on the regional financial markets of Asian countries during and after the Asian financial crisis in 1997, in order to study the dynamic relationship between stock returns and exchange rate changes. In addition, the impact of the Asian financial crisis is also examined. For the methodology, the bivariate EGARCH (exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity) and EGARCH-X models are used to examine the interrelationship of stock markets and foreign exchange markets. The empirical results show that a two-way feedback relationship exists between the volatility of stock returns and exchange rate changes during the recovery period of the Asian countries. This result is important because the effect of volatility transmission between global financial markets can still be observed today. Furthermore, when comparing the volatility transmission during the crisis period with that during the recovery period, it shows that the spillover effect has increased during the recovery period, indicating that the strength of the transmission mechanism has increased after the Asian financial crisis. This result also suggests that the interactions of the stock and foreign exchange markets of Asian countries were affected by the Asian financial crisis, and the impact is greater for Indonesia, Japan, the Philippines, and especially Thailand, which were more vulnerable during the financial crisis.     

全球经济纵横谈

本轮全球经济金融危机和贸易逆差背后的因素在于美国。这主要是与1980年代以后美国开始推行金融自由化和2001互联网泡沫破灭后美联储的货币应对政策失误有关。其根源在于目前的国际货币体系。美国作为储备货币国为了解决国内的问题,在宏观的货币政策当中只考虑本国的利益,结果就产生了对全世界的影响。目前国际上主流理论界普遍认为政府应该控制赤字规模,以提高私营部门投资的信心,这种做法很可能既不能帮助经济走出危机,也不能控制赤字快速积累,必须实行全球的超越凯恩斯主义的复苏计划。现在主流发展经济学的理论有相当大的问题,在中国的未来发展过程中,必然还有很多矛盾和冲突出现。我们只有独立研究,进行理论创新,把问题看得更全面,才会让我们在国际经济发展中化被动为主动。     

Net impact of government funding on nonprofit fiscal health: burden or benefit?

This study examines the impact of federal grant awards on the financial health of recipient nonprofits. Although a modest body of research finds that government grants are beneficial to nonprofit fiscal health, a large Urban Institute study (2010, 2013, 2015) found that nonprofit managers receiving government grants consistently report fiscal harm due to awards that do not cover all program costs, late payments, and significant administrative burden. Those findings raise the question of whether government funding leads to net benefits or net harm for organizations given the administrative and fiscal burdens identified. This study tests that question using a large panel of federal grants to estimate the impact of government awards on three measures of nonprofit financial health. We find that government grants promote an increase in nonprofit size, improve operating margins, and increase financial reserves for recipient organizations. These benefits endure after the receipt of the award.     

Reflections on social capital and economic performance

In the last 20 years, the concept of social capital has attracted much more attention and many more devotees than any other concept in the social sciences. This has gradually resulted in an enormous amount of literature. This paper seeks to make a threefold contribution to the voluminous literature on social capital. First, it argues against the recent interest in the foundations of social capital, that the real foundations of social capital cannot be found and thus should not be sought in the writings of the putative forerunners of the concept, as some authors have suggested (e.g. Putnam 2000, Ostrom and Ahn 2003). Second, it argues against the objections to the non-capital properties of social capital that social capital is an important form of capital. Finally, this paper suggests that social capital is not the only missing link in reaching higher levels of economic performance. There are also other important factors that can equally be considered as potential missing links.     

BANK RESERVE REQUIREMENTS AS AN IMPEDIMENT TO SIGNALING

Effective legal reserve requirements may hamper the private capital market's ability to price bank deposits. In the model developed here, the market has less information about bank assets than the banks have, and a bank can therefore signal its superior information through its choice of excess reserves. Mandatory reserves can inhibit such signaling and therefore result in inefficient deposit pricing.     

THE DEMAND FOR EXCESS RESERVES, LIABILITY MANAGEMENT, AND THE MONEY SUPPLY PROCESS

Commercial bank behavior is not adequately dealt with in existing macro models of the financial sector. The central role of a demand for excess reserves (or free reserves) function in models of the money supply process is particularly suspect. In this paper, it is argued that changes in commercial bank behavior induced by alterations in economic and financial conditions and various banking regulations, along with the central bank's approach to policy, have combined to alter the excess reserve function and the relationship between bank reserves and the money supply. Empirical work presented suggests that the "demand" for excess reserves has indeed undergone structural change. Thus, the study indicates that conventional approaches to commercial bank behavior and the demand for excess reserves need to be reworked.     

Social capital of entrepreneurs in a developing country: The effect of gender on access to and requests for resources

This paper addresses gender differences in the social capital of entrepreneurs in a developing country. Social networks are often an important asset for accessing resources; however, they may also be a liability in developing countries, since entrepreneurs are often expected to support their contacts. Using a recent survey among urban and rural Ugandan entrepreneurs, we focus on the financial resources that entrepreneurs can obtain from their contacts on the one hand, and requests for financial support made to the entrepreneurs from these contacts on the other hand. Our results show that there are gender differences associated with access to, and requests for, financial resources.