伊拉克战争后沙特和伊朗关系中的美国因素

2003年伊拉克战争后,在沙特和伊朗之间结构性矛盾的形成和发展方面,美国发挥了重要的负面影响。在小布什时期,伊拉克战争的爆发为伊朗提升地区影响力提供了有利条件。该时期,沙伊关系总体维持良好状态,但小布什政府的中东政策对沙伊关系的消极影响在其任内中后期日渐显现,激化了沙伊之间的矛盾,导致两国关系逐渐疏远。在奥巴马时期,美国在中东地区实施战略收缩以及缓和美伊关系的政策措施,再次为伊朗的崛起创造了条件,奥巴马政府的中东政策由此成为沙美关系恶化的重要外部因素。特朗普执政后,美国将修复与盟友关系、加大军售以及遏制伊朗作为中东政策的主要目标,并刻意利用和挑拨沙伊矛盾,进而导致沙伊关系进一步恶化。     

伊朗介入中东地区事务的动力及限度

近年来,伴随中东变局的演化以及伊朗与域内外国家间关系的复杂变化,代理人战争成为伊朗地区战略的重要政策工具。为应对不同对手,伊朗在海湾地区、阿拉伯半岛南部和地中海东岸地区分别扶持不同的代理人,并形成了三个次级战略板块。伊朗推行代理人战争的动力主要包括通过代理人战争制衡与掣肘美国、以色列、沙特等全球及地区对手;巩固与扩大本国在中东地区的战略影响力;避免与对手直接开战,实现以最低成本获取最大化收益的战略目标。然而,受代理人能力与战略意愿的改变、国内政局以及民众支持度变化、对手反制和新冠疫情等因素的影响,伊朗推行代理人战争存在明显限度,代理人战争的效果不应被过度夸大。     

伊拉克战争后沙特与伊朗关系探析

伊拉克战争后,中东原有的地缘政治和国家间的力量均衡被打破。地区大国沙特和伊朗为了进一步争雄海湾,进而确立自身在中东的话语权,展开了激烈的较量和博弈。沙伊关系发展演变围绕六大问题而展开,即沙特国内什叶派问题、海湾合作委员会国家及伊拉克与伊朗的关系问题、黎巴嫩政局和巴以问题、叙利亚内战、沙特军事打击也门胡塞武装和伊朗核问题。双方关系整体上呈现出以对抗为主、妥协合作为辅的基本特点。由于对抗与妥协的层面及其限度会因时因事而转换,因此为双方关系增添了诸多不确定性因素。同时,大国特别是美俄的中东政策也是影响沙伊关系的重要变量。     

整体考察美国的中东政策(下)

无论在冷战时期还是后冷战时代,中东地区因其拥有丰富的能源和特殊的地缘政治地位而成为美国全球战略中的重要部分。依照美国中东政策的源起、美在中东的利益、冷战和后冷战时期的美中东政策等历史线索和逻辑关系,本文对美国中东政策进行了系统梳理与整体考察,构建了"分析美国中东政策的框架"。其中,作者多年前提出的"考察美国中东政策的坐标"在实证研究中是可行且有效的。冷战后,中东成为美国全球战略重点"两洋战略"的"连接点"和"支撑点",具有"不可替代性",从而与"两洋战略"遥相呼应,构成强有力的"哑铃态势",加强了"两洋战略"。此外,美国发动了海湾战争、阿富汗战争和伊拉克战争等三场有重大影响的战争,进一步说明中东地区对美来说不仅有着无法割舍的利益需求,而且还是实现其战略目标的重要舞台。     

整体考察美国的中东政策(下)

无论在冷战时期还是后冷战时代,中东地区因其拥有丰富的能源和特殊的地缘政治地位而成为美国全球战略中的重要部分.依照美国中东政策的源起、美在中东的利益、冷战和后冷战时期的美中东政策等历史线索和逻辑关系,本文对美国中东政策进行了系统梳理与整体考察,构建了"分析美国中东政策的框架".其中,作者多年前提出的"考察美国中东政策的坐标"在实证研究中是可行且有效的.冷战后,中东成为美国全球战略重点"两洋战略"的"连接点"和"支撑点",具有"不可替代性",从而与"两洋战略"遥相呼应,构成强有力的"哑铃态势",加强了"两洋战略".此外,美国发动了海湾战争、阿富汗战争和伊拉克战争等三场有重大影响的战争,进一步说明中东地区对美来说不仅有着无法割舍的利益需求,而且还是实现其战略目标的重要舞台.     

整体考察美国的中东政策(上)

无论在冷战时期还是后冷战时代,中东地区因其拥有丰富的能源和特殊的地缘政治地位而成为美国全球战略中的重要部分.依照美国中东政策的源起、美在中东的利益、冷战和后冷战时期的美中东政策等历史线索和逻辑关系,本文对美国中东政策进行了系统梳理与整体考察,构建了"分析美国中东政策的框架".其中,作者多年前提出的"考察美国中东政策的坐标"在实证研究中是可行且有效的.冷战后,中东成为美国全球战略重点"两洋战略"的"连接点"和"支撑点",具有"不可替代性",从而与"两洋战略"遥相呼应,构成强有力的"哑铃态势",加强了"两洋战略".此外,美国发动了海湾战争、阿富汗战争和伊拉克战争等三场有重大影响的战争,进一步说明中东地区对美来说不仅有着无法割舍的利益需求,而且还是实现其战略目标的重要舞台.     

美国对中东能源战略变迁的理论分析

中东地区蕴藏的石油资源品质好、埋藏浅、储量丰富、开采成本低,在国际能源安全和地缘政治上具有重要地位,美国的历届政府非常重视对中东地区的政策。本文分析了自20世纪初以来,伴随美国在国际体系中位置的变化而产生的对中东地区能源战略的变迁。最后分析了美国中东能源战略的特点及其未来的走向,认为美国中东能源战略与美国的地缘战略、谋求霸权、军事行动密切结合。     

“奥巴马主义”与叙利亚危机

叙利亚危机是"阿拉伯之春"引发的一场极其复杂的地缘政治博弈,是集内战和反恐于一体、大国干涉和地区力量介入相交织的冲突,也是在美国中东战略收缩背景下发生的重大事件,因而成为观察美国中东战略和外交调整的重要视角。在"奥巴马主义"的指导下,美国坚持采用"以压促谈"的方式参与叙利亚危机进程,避免因军事卷入而重蹈伊拉克战争和阿富汗战争的覆辙,并注重发挥多边作用,试图通过力量制衡和利益置换来实现稳定叙利亚局势的目的,进而服务于美国的中东核心利益及中东政策。美国当选总统特朗普的新保守主义和孤立主义倾向,可能使"奥巴马主义"未来在美国的叙利亚政策乃至整个中东政策中得到延续。     

中东变局中的国际话语权竞争及对中国的启示

导致中东变局的根本动因是该地区各国内部政治和社会转型的迫切需求,但国际舆论尤其是占据强势地位的西方话语,对整个局势的发展产生了深刻影响。从当前中国持续崛起,与美国等西方大国在全球政治、经济等领域竞争和摩擦增多的大背景看,西方利用其掌控国际舆论的优势,在中东变局中不断制造话语和设置议题,甚至不惜诋毁中国相关政策,不仅是为引导局势走向,更有维系其国际事务主导地位、遏制中国影响力上升的一面。近年来,中国采取了更为积极进取的中东政策,但话语构建和议题设置能力相对不足,常常不得不在西方设置的话语和议题陷阱中被动应对。本文重点考察中东变局中的国际话语权竞争及对中国的若干启示。     

"阿拉伯之春"与俄罗斯的中东外交战略

俄罗斯的中东战略在某种程度上继承了苏联的中东战略,并在此基础上通过双边和多边外交、经济和贸易关系以及文化软实力的输出,对中东国家产生影响."阿拉伯之春"爆发后,俄罗斯在中东的利益受到冲击,主要表现为俄罗斯与中东国家的双边关系弱化、与中东国家的经贸关系受损、中东地区反俄情绪增长等.一方面,俄罗斯利用"阿拉伯之春"对地缘政治所造成的冲击,及时调整了其中东外交战略,提升了中东国家在俄罗斯整体外交战略中的重要性.另一方面,俄罗斯利用"阿拉伯之春"后中东地区国际体系变化以及域外大国中东外交政策的调整,重构了其与中东国家的政治经济关系,并在恢复双边关系的基础上,推出了整体性的中东战略.     

Universal Emancipation: The Haitian Revolution and The Radical Enlightenment

The Black Bard of North Carolina: George Moses Horton and His Poetry. Joan R. Sherman (ed.).Chapel Hill and London: University of North Carolina Press. 1997. 158pp. $29.95 and $12.95. ISBN 0–8078–2341–4.

Martin Delany, Frederick Douglass, and The Politics of Representative Identity. Robert S. Levine. Chapel Hill and London: University of North Carolina Press. 1997. x, 314pp. $45.00 and $18.95. ISBN 0–8078–2323–6.

Nationalism and the Color Line in George W. Cable, Mark Twain, and William Faulkner. Barbara Ladd. Baton Rouge: Louisiana State University Press. 1997. xxi, 197pp. $30.00. ISBN 0–8071–2065–0.

Passing and the Fictions of Identity. Elaine K. Ginsberg (ed.). Durham: Duke University Press. 1996. £43.95 and £15.95. ISBN 0–8223–1755–9.     

The impact of the family on home-based work

This article reports on a study of 899 families with at least one member engaged in home-based work. Six work characteristics are examined in relation to family structure and gender of the home-based worker: business ownership, occupation of the home-based work, amount of income generated, location of the work space, number of hours worked, and availability of help with the work. Women in single-parent and full-nest families are found to do the most restructuring of work time and space and women home-based workers generate less income from the work than do men. Male home-based workers experience less conflict between family and work scheduling, are more likely to have an exclusive work space, and tend to have help with the home-based work.This article reports results from the Cooperative Regional Research Project, NE-167, entitled, At-Home Income Generation: Impact on Management, Productivity and Stability in Rural and Urban Families, partially supported by Cooperative States Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture and the Experiment Stations at the University of Hawaii, Iowa State University, Lincoln University (Missouri), Michigan State University, Cornell University (New York), The Ohio State University, The Pennsylvania State University, Utah State University and University of Vermont.Her research interests include divorce, work and family, and the economic well-being of women and children. She received her Ph.D. from Oregon State University.He has extensive experience in research, consulting, and training for small business owners and operators, including single parents, disabled veterans, Hispanics, rural and home-based. He received his Ph.D. from New York University.     

Strangeness at the Gates: The Peculiar Politics of American Immigration1

Selecting by Origin: Ethnic Migration in the Liberal State. By Christian Joppke. Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 2005 Impossible Subjects: Illegal Aliens and the Making of Modern America. By Mae Ngai. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2004 Dividing Lines: The Politics of Immigration Control in America. By Daniel Tichenor. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2002.     

Gambling: The shaping of an opinion

Examining historical and contemporary writings, the authors show that many of the negative arguments about gambling spring from selfish interests in the business and political sectors. The stigma associated with gambling turns out to be a method of preventing competition from gambling, and leads to misguided social policies.The authors are, respectively, associate professor of economics at the Business School of the University of Montreal (HEC), and professor of economics in the department of economics of the University of Montreal. The paper draws on our recently published bookGambling and Speculation (Cambridge University Press, 1990), as well as on events that took place since we finished writing it. We thank Loto-Québec for its financial support.     

The effects of children on the major dimensions of home-based employment

Using an ordinary least squares regression procedure and data from the NE-167 sample of home-based employment households, the effects of children on seven major home-based work dimensions, respectively, are estimated along with remaining work dimensions and a series of control variables. The findings show that having a child equal to or under 18 years of age reduces home-based work hours by 407 hours per year, which equates to 1 work day per week. The separate effect of a child under 6 years of age reduces work hours by 296 hours per year or about three-quarters of a work day per week. Being a male home-based worker offsets these children effects considerably compared with being a female home-based worker. Children in general are negatively related to large-scale businesses that hire employees or services. Younger children negatively affect the likelihood of being a home-based business owner and being involved in seasonal home-based employment.This article reports results from the Cooperative Regional Research Project, NE-167, entitled, At-Home Income Generation: Impact on Management, Productivity and Stability in Rural and Urban Families, partially supported by Cooperative States Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, and the Experiment Stations at the University of Hawaii, Iowa State University, Lincoln University (Missouri), Michigan State University, Cornell University (New York), The Ohio State University, The Pennsylvania State University, Utah State University, and University of Vermont. Appreciation is expressed to You-Hyun Cho for the computer assistance needed to complete these analyses. Patsy Seilen and Justine Lynge were instrumental in formatting and stylizing this article to required guidelines.Her current research interests include household asset and debt formation, working families, and employers' benefits and home-based employment. She received her Ph.D. from Purdue University in 1978.     

The utilization of child care by households engaged in home-based employment

A logit procedure is used to examine the factors associated with the likelihood of using child care services among a sample of households with both a home-based worker and a child designated as needing care. Being a single-parent, having high family income, and the presence of a two-year old child are positively associated with the likelihood of using child care. Being an older worker, having a child who is one year or less or children who are 11 to 12 years, and having a less professional occupation decreases the likelihood of using child care. Self-employment decreases the likelihood of usage; owning a business that hires employees or services increases the likelihood of usage. The major conclusion is that home-based work may be a coping strategy for some child care needs, but home-based working households often need and use child care.This article reports results from the Cooperative Regional Research Project, NE-167, entitled, At-Home Income Generation: Impact on Management, Productivity and Stability in Rural/Urban Families, partially supported by the Cooperative States Research Service, U. S. Department of Agriculture and the Experiment Stations at the University of Hawaii, Iowa State University, Lincoln University (Missouri), Michigan State University, Cornell University (New York), The Ohio State University, The Pennsylvania State University, Utah State University, and the University of Vermont. Authors are listed in descending order of their contributions to this research paper. Appreciation is expressed to Frank Chiang for the computer assistance needed to complete these analyses. Patsy Sellen was instrumental in formatting and stylizing this article to required guidelines.Her current research interests include household asset and debt formation, working families and employers' benefits, and home-based employment. She received her Ph.D. from Purdue University in 1978.Nancy C. Saltford, has recently been a Visiting Scholar at the Employee Benefit Research Institute, a public policy research organization in Washington D.C. where she specialized in employer policies for working families. Her Ph.D. was received from Purdue University in 1971.Her research interests include the economics of divorce and at-home income generation. She received her Ph.D. from Oregon State University in 1986.Her primary areas of research are rural families, household production, family time use and its meaning, and the interactive aspects of managerial, productive and affective functions of families. She received her Ph.D. from the University of Missouri-Columbia in 1983.     

The unique nature of textile and craft home-based workers: A comparison

Using data collected by a nine-state regional research project, textile and craft home-based workers are compared with the rest of the home-based workers in the sample on several selected variables: home-based work and worker characteristics, income, adaptive behaviors to hectic work times, and advantages and disadvantages of home-based work. Significantly more females than males are engaged in textile and craft home-based work. The findings are related to gender; compared with other workers, textile and craft workers spend fewer hours on home-based work, have lower gross business incomes but greater gross family incomes, have more spouses employed outside the home, and are more likely to use personal time than to hire help during hectic work times. Additional research should investigate gender effects and their relationship to the choice and context of home-based work as well as their impact on the household.This article reports results from the Cooperative Regional Research Project, NE-167, entitled,At-Home Income Generation: Impact on Management, Productivity and Stability in Rural and Urban Families, partially supported by Cooperative States Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture and the Experiment Stations at the University of Hawaii, Iowa State University, Lincoln University (Missouri), Michigan State University, Cornell University (New York), The Ohio State University, The Pennsylvania State University, Utah State University, and University of Vermont. The authors are listed alphabetically and have contributed equally to this publication.Her research interests include home-based work, social aspects of clothing, and consumer purchase behavior.Her research interests include farm family financial management, home-based work, and housing expenditures.     

The unredeemed past: Academics and Indians on America's intellectual frontier

Susan B. Andrews and John Creed (eds.), Authentic Alaska: Voices of Its Native Writers (Lincoln, NE and London: University of Nebraska Press, 1998). Pp.xxvii + 177. $35 (hardback); $15 (paperback). ISBN 0 8032 1041 8 and 5933 6

Joy A. Bilharz, The Allegany Senecas and Kinzua Dam: Forced Relocation Through Two Generations (Lincoln, NE and London: University of Nebraska Press, 1998). Pp.xxvi + 194. $40/£38 (hardback). ISBN 0 8032 1282 8

Devon A. Mihesuah (ed.), Natives and Academics: Researching and Writing about American Indians (Lincoln, NE and London: University of Nebraska Press, 1998). Pp.xi + 212. $15/£14 (paperback). ISBN 0 8032 8243 5

Roger Nichols, Indians in the United States and Canada: A Comparative History (Lincoln, NE and London: The University of Nebraska Press, 1988). Pp.xvii + 383. $60/£57 (hardback). ISBN 0 8032 3341 8

Eli Paul (ed.), The Nebraska Indian Wars Reader, 1865–1877 (Lincoln, NE and London: University of Nebraska Press, 1998). Pp.xii + 245. $15/£14 (paperback). ISBN 0 8032 8749 6

Gerald Vizenor, Fugitive Poses: Native American Indian Scenes of Absence and Presence (Lincoln, NE and London: University of Nebraska Press, 1998). Pp.238. NP (paperback). ISBN 0 8032 4664 1     

The Influence Of Family Violence On Youth Attitudes

This study investigated the impact of violence exposure on youth attitudes toward violence and guns. Rural youth were surveyed on their exposure to violence in the home, school, and neighborhood in addition to their attitudes toward guns and violence. Results indicated youth were exposed to an alarming amount of violence in each setting, particularly the school. Findings also demonstrated that attitudes toward violence and guns were significantly influenced by violence in the home and being male. Karen Slovak, is affiliated with the Ohio University, Zanesville; Karen Carlson is affiliated with the Ohio Univerisity, Athens; Linda Helm is affiliated with Miami University, Ohio. Address correspondence to Karen Slovoak, Ph.D., Assistant Professor of Social Work, Ohio University , 1425 Newark Road, OH 43701, Zanesville; e-mail: solvak@muohio.edu     

The computational difficulty of manipulating an election

We show how computational complexity might protect the integrity of social choice. We exhibit a voting rule that efficiently computes winners but is computationally resistant to strategic manipulation. It is NP-complete for a manipulative voter to determine how to exploit knowledge of the preferences of others. In contrast, many standard voting schemes can be manipulated with only polynomial computational effort.Presented at Purdue University, March 1987; at the University of Arizona, April 1987; at Massachusetts Institute of Technology, April 1987; at Yale University, November 1987; at Centre International de Rencontres Mathematiques, Marseille-Luminy, April 1988. This research was supported in part by Presidential Young Investigator Awards from the National Science Foundation to the first two authors (ECS-8351313 and ECS-8451032), and by grant N00014-86-K-0173 from the Office of Naval Research.The authors appreciate many helpful comments and suggestions by the editor and three anonymous referees. We also thank Michel Balinski, Salvador Barbera, Jean-Pierre Barthelemy, and Peyton Young for stimulating discussions.