Voluntary Associations and Net Fertility During the Swedish Demographic Transition

This study investigates the role of changing social relations for fertility decline during the European fertility transition. The growth of voluntary associations at the end of the nineteenth century entailed a radical shift in the landscape of social relations in Sweden. By combining micro-census data from 1890 to 1900 with local-level membership data for three voluntary association groups, this article assesses the effect of parish-level voluntary association size on net fertility in Sweden using mixed-effects Poisson regression models. The results show that the adoption of fertility limitation during the transition period was associated with the creation and diffusion of the idea of respectability within large social network organisations, an idea that has previously been shown to be connected to fertility limitation. Furthermore, by applying a social network perspective, the results show that the strength of the effect was dependent on the structure of the social networks in terms of size, density, and homogeneity. Voluntary association size had the strongest effect for the free churches, which created dense heterogeneous networks through systems of social control, while the size of the temperance association showed no effect on fertility because the connections between nodes were sparse.     

Socio-economic determinants of marital fertility in two eighteenth-century dutch villages

Several studies have found evidence for the practice of contraception before the fertility transition in Europe. Little, however, is known about the motives behind the practice of contraception during this period. Findings from an analysis of birth intervals in the two neighbouring Dutch agricultural villages of Gilze and Rijen in the second half of the eighteenth century suggest the use of deliberate birth spacing which was related to economic factors.     

Birth Spacing in the Netherlands. The Effects of Family Composition, Occupation and Religion on Birth Intervals, 1820–1885

In this article, Dutch family reconstructions from the period 1820–1885 are analyst. Cox regression on birth intervals discloses that couples deliberately increased birth intervals already before the onset of the fertility transition. Spacing was not related to a targeted family size or to the sex composition of the family. Rather, the (temporary) burden of young, dependent children induced the parents to delay the next conception. Catholics and orthodox Protestants had shorter birth intervals than liberal Protestants, either because they rejected breastfeeding or because they were reluctant to experiment with birth spacing. Relatively long birth intervals were prevalent in the lowest social groups, whereas farmers and the self-employed middle class tended towards short intervals.     

Small Effects of Selective Migration and Selective Survival in Retrospective Studies of Fertility

In this study, we assess the accuracy of fertility estimates that stem from the retrospective information that can be derived from an existing cross-sectional population. Swedish population registers contain information on the childbearing of all people ever registered as living in Sweden, and thus allow us to avoid problems of selectivity by the virtue of survival or nonemigration when estimating the fertility measures for previous calendar periods. We calculate two types of fertility rates for each year in 1961–1999: (i) rates that are based on the population that was living in Sweden at the end of 1999, and (ii) rates that also include information on people who had died or emigrated before the turn of the twentieth century. We find that the omission of information on individuals who had emigrated or died, as the situation would be in any demographic survey, most often have negligible effects on fertility measures. However, first-birth rates of immigrants gradually become more biased as we move back in time from 1999 so that they increasingly tend to over-estimate the true fertility of that population.     

Religious Socialisation and Fertility: Transition to Third Birth in The Netherlands

Although previous studies have demonstrated that religious people in Europe have larger families, the role played by religious socialisation in the context of contemporary fertility behaviour has not yet been analysed in detail. This contribution specifically looks at the interrelation between religious socialisation and current religiosity and their impact on the transition to the third child for Dutch women. It is based on data of the first wave of the Netherlands Kinship Panel Study (2002–2004) and uses event history analysis. The transitions to first, second and third birth are modelled jointly with a control for unobserved heterogeneity. The findings provide evidence for an impact of women’s current church attendance as well as religious socialisation measured by their fathers’ religious affiliation, when they were teenagers. A religious family background remains influential even when a woman has stopped attending church. The effects of religious indicators strengthen over cohorts. Moreover, the combined religious make-up of the respondent’s parents also significantly determines the progression to the third child.     

Deferment of the First Birth and Fluctuating Fertility in Sweden

In Sweden, as in other industrialized countries, a decades-old decline in fertility rates has been accompanied by a rise in the age at first birth. In contrast to other industrialized countries, however, fertility rates rose sharply in the 1980s before plummeting in the 1990s. In this paper we apply hazard regression to data from the 1992 Swedish Family Survey, supplemented by annual earnings data linked to individuals and by annual time series of national-level economic indicators, to investigate the predictors of the timing of the first birth of women in Sweden since the mid-1960s. The discovery that both individual characteristics and aggregate-level factors influence the timing of the first birth casts light on both the continuing trend of postponement of the first birth and annual fluctuations in first-birth rates.     

Use It or Save It? Migration Background and Parental Leave Uptake in Sweden

Sweden is a welfare state with a family policy that strongly emphasizes equality without distinction by place of birth or gender. In this study, we investigate the differences in uptake of parental leave between native and immigrant mothers, and the connection to labour-market attachment. Sweden represents a unique case study, not only because of the strong effort to combine work and family for all women and men, the high level of fertility and the large presence of immigrants in the country; it also enables a detailed and sophisticated analysis based on the high-quality data derived from its population registers. We find that immigrant mothers use more parental leave benefit the first year after their child’s birth, but then fewer in the second year compared with native mothers. The differences diminish when labour-market activity is controlled for. Additionally, after a time in Sweden, immigrant mothers use leave more similarly to how native mothers do.     

The Impact of Family Policies on Fertility Trends in Developed Countries

We examine how strongly fertility trends respond to family policies in OECD countries. In the light of the recent fertility rebound observed in several OECD countries, we empirically test the impact of different family policy instruments on fertility, using macro panel data from 18 OECD countries that spans the years 1982–2007. Our results confirm that each instrument of the family policy package (paid leave, childcare services and financial transfers) has a positive influence on average, suggesting that the combination of these forms of support for working parents during their children’s early years is likely to facilitate parents’ choice to have children. Policy levers do not all have the same weight, however: in-cash benefits covering childhood after the year of childbirth and the provision of childcare services for children under age three have a larger potential influence on fertility than leave entitlements and benefits granted around childbirth. Moreover, we find that the influence of each policy measure varies across different family policy contexts. Our findings are robust after controlling for birth postponement, endogeneity, time-lagged fertility reactions and for different aspects of national contexts, such as female labour market participation, unemployment, labour market protection and the proportion of children born out of marriage.     

The Association between Religiosity and Fertility Intentions Via Grandparenting: Evidence from GGS Data

Although the literature concerning the association between religiosity and fertility in European countries is already quite extensive, studies exploring the mechanisms of action of religiosity are rare. The main aim of this article is to investigate whether grandparental childcare is a mediating or moderating variable in the association between attendance at religious services and the intention to have a second or third child. Building on previous literature, we assume that parents who are more religious might put more effort into establishing a positive relation with the grandparents of their child/children. Consequently, compared to parents who are less religious, those who are more religious could be more receptive to possible encouragement from grandparents to have another child and may be more optimistic regarding grandparents’ involvement with an additional child. Using Generations and Gender Survey (GGS) data for eleven European countries, we find evidence of a strong and positive effect of attendance at religious services on fertility intentions. Receipt of regular or weekly help from grandparents positively moderates the association between attendance at religious services and fertility intentions, albeit only for male respondents and mainly for the intention to have a second child.     

Impact of Induced Abortion on Fertility in Romania

The topic of induced abortion as a method of birth control in the formersocialist European countries has been a subject of broad debate. Legal or illegal abortion, depending on legislation restrictions, was widely used in periods when people had reduced control over their reproductive life. Romania, a former socialist country, is an interesting case to study because of the very dramatic swings in its abortion policies coupled with important changes in available contraceptive methods associated with the fall of the Soviet Empire. The study investigates the impact of induced abortion on the risks of first-, second- and third-order births in Romania during the last 35 years, using data from the Reproductive Health Survey, Romania, 2004. The legalization of abortion in 1990, after two decades of total prohibition, had an immediate effect on second- and third-order births, but it contributed less to the decrease of primo-fertility. Investigations regarding the “first and second demographic transition” that initially involved women desiring fewer children and then women modifying the timing of those births show changes in the use of abortion to achieve birth plans. The effect of abortion on fertility has decreased over time.     

艺术形式概念的历史演变

艺术形式的概念是关系到美学和文艺学存在的本体性问题。在不同的历史时期对艺术形式概念 理解的侧重点不同,19世纪以前是以客体的视角切入,19世纪的研究主要侧重于历史的中和,而20世纪主要是以 形式本体的视角进行研究。     

Racing Against the Biological Clock? Childbearing and Sterility Among Men and Women in Second Unions in France

In developed countries, rising rates of union disruption have induced an increase in the share of people experiencing several fertile partnerships during their fertile life-span. However, from the large-scale 1999 French Family Survey, in the 1939–1954 birth cohorts it appears that completed fertility of repartnered men is slightly higher than that of never-separated men while repartnered women have fertility levels similar to those who remain in a first intact partnership. Following this observation, this article aims to study whether people, and especially women, have enough time to have children in the context of second union before they become limited by the “biological clock”. Using a cure model, we find that once age-related sterility is controlled for, the decrease in risk of having children with age is not visible anymore up to age 40. This offers some evidence that people in their second partnership, especially women, are constrained in their childbearing by the decline in fecundity with age. Additionally, childless women seem to respond proactively to the decline in fecundity with age by accelerating childbearing.     

Diffusion Effects in the European Fertility Transition: Historical Evidence from Within a Belgian Town (1846–1910)

This article investigates empirically diffusion effects on married couples' fertility behaviour during the historical European demographic transition. To this end, a blended logistic model of parity-dependent stopping behaviour is developed, including indicators for both natural and structural determinants and diffusion effects. The model is applied to the birth intervals of three 19th century generations of urban working class couples living in the Belgian town of Leuven. The results indicate that occupational status cannot explain the adoption of stopping behaviour. The evidence suggests that diffusion mechanisms were at work on a neighbourhood level: the proportion of Francophone couples living in the Leuven streets had a significant positive impact on the probability that the Flemish couples were applying stopping behaviour. Also, working class couples who were living in a town quarter that was hosting many upper class people were significantly more likely to stop. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

The Impact of Labour-Force Participation on Childbearing Behaviour: Pro-Cyclical Fertility in Sweden during the 1980s and the 1990s

During the last two decades, Sweden has experienced strong fluctuations both in its economy and in its level of childbearing. A period of high employment and increasing fertility has been followed by a period of lower employment and decreasing fertility since the beginning of the 1990s. In this paper, we use register data for Swedish women in order to examine how various types of attachment to the labour market affect women's propensity to give birth at different parities. Specifically, we show what impact changes in women's employment status have had on recorded fertility trends in Sweden. We find that women who have relatively low levels of income and women who are enrolled as students generally have lower fertility than other women. We also find that a rise in the number of women with such characteristics can explain part of the decrease in fertility during the 1990s. It is evident, however, that other factors, working at the macro level, also have to be considered when one wants to explain the fluctuating fertility of Sweden. Social policy is one such factor. In sum, we find a pattern of pro-cyclical fertility, where levels of female earnings are positively related to levels of childbearing.     

The fall of marital fertility in nineteenth-century France: Exemplar or exception? (Part II)

The first part of this two-part article, concentrating on the fall of fertility at national level, was published in the preceding issue of this journal. Here in Part II, regional data are used to test the homogeneity of French demographic history in the nineteenth century. Was the tendency of changes in fertility, mortality and nuptiality to offset one another and keep the intrinsic growth rate close to zero, visible in national data, also found regionally and departmentally? Where there are exceptions what light do they throw on the ‘model’ described in Part I? Having reviewed regional patterns, it is then possible to return to more general issues of interpretation and to review the gradual disappearance of the distinctiveness of France in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries.     

基于"全面二孩"政策下的房价波动、收入水平对生育行为的影响研究

基于最新的2016年CFPS微观家庭数据,人群可分成中高收入和低收入两部分,通过建立Logit模型等来研究房价对于收入水平不同的家庭生育行为所带来的抑制效应和收入效应,同时为了避免内生性问题的产生,选定了相应的工具变量进行了检验。分析结果表明,生育行为因房价上升得到抑制,这一影响机制在中高收入人群当中更为显著,房价每上涨100元,低收入生育一孩的人群约减少1.29%,中高收入生育一孩的人群约减少2.66%。同时,房价波动的收入效应对于一孩、二孩生育的影响也具有异质性,对于一孩生育的收入效应不显著,对二孩生育的收入效应较为显著。     

Social Differences in the Decline of Marital Reproduction in Rural Navarre (Spain)

The continued decline of marital fertility in Navarre (Spain) during the first few decades of the twentieth century was associated with an increase in life expectancy and greater survival to adulthood. This decline affected all social strata and all geographical regions, rural areas as well as cities. Nonetheless, the decline was not homogeneous. Some sectors of Navarrese society began the fertility transition earlier than others.Cross sectional analysis is presented for different years of diverse variables that could be related to the levels of marital fertility: level of urbanization, occupation of the father, level of religious devotion and political factors. Statistical evidence is presented that confirms the relationship of these variables to the levels of fertility.     

从儒家的孝慈观看现代社会父子之伦的模式改塑

我国传统文化中以儒家孝道慈观为核心的封建孝道思想内容丰富 ,源远流长 ,强调子孝是封建孝道的主要特色之一。在人类即将跨入新世纪的关头 ,面对逐步转型的社会 ,认真分析封建孝道的精华与糟粕 ,我们认为从适应未来社会生活和缓解现代社会家庭人伦冲突出发 ,通过对养育子女人伦观和赡养人伦观的改塑 ,建立以父慈为核心的家庭人伦观 ,唤起对未来家庭人伦观的伦理警觉 ,无疑具有明显的现代意义     

Religion and Fertility in Western Europe: Trends Across Cohorts in Britain,France and the Netherlands

The role of religion in explaining fertility differences is often overlooked in demographic studies, particularly in Western Europe, where there has been a substantial decline in institutional forms of religious adherence. The current study explores the changing relationships between religion and childbearing in Britain, France and the Netherlands. Using data from the Generations and Gender Programme and the British Household Panel Survey, religious differences in completed fertility and the transition to first birth are explored across cohorts of women. In addition, a longitudinal analysis is employed to examine the influence of religion on subsequent childbearing. Although the secularization paradigm assumes that the influence of religion on individual behavior will diminish over time, it is found that religious affiliation and practice continue to be important determinants of fertility and family formation patterns. However, there is some variation in the relationship between religion and fertility across countries; while in France and the Netherlands fertility gaps by religiosity are either consistent or increasing, in Britain, this gap appears to have narrowed over time. These findings suggest that fertility differences by religion also depend on the particular social context of religious institutions in each country.