从稳定低生育率到稳定人口──新世纪人口态势模拟

本文首先讨论了低生育率的内涵,从稳定人口理论出发探讨了稳定低生育率的必要性。低生育率以更替水平为上限,政策生育水平为下限。对低生育率变化范围内,未来百年的中国人口发展趋势进行了模拟,根据结果探讨了２１世纪的中国人口发展战略。     

中国老龄化对社会经济可持续发展的影响分析

人口老龄化与可持续发展是当今国际社会共同关注的两个重大问题。老龄化成为世界人口发展的普遍趋势,可持续发展是国际社会的共同发展战略。因此,如何保持社会经济的可持续发展和使老龄化与社会经济协调发展,成为我们必须研究和解决的一个重要问题。本文从人口老龄化与可持续发展的辨正关系着手,结合我国老龄化发展状况,运用2000年最新“回填”数据对未来人口发展进行百年预测,以此为依据分析老龄化对社会经济产生的不同影响,为国家制定可持续发展战略提供一定的参考价值。     

不同生育政策选择与中国未来人口

从不同生育政策的假定条件出发,对我国未来人口进行了百年模拟预测,分析研究了不同生育政策的选择与未来人口趋势之间的关系。面对中国未来人口数量庞大与人口年龄结构老化的两难境地,主张在控制人口数量的大前提下,选择适度调整人口年龄结构的生育政策。     

中国人口与发展学术研讨会综述

2007年1月11日,国家人口发展研究战略课题组公布了《国家人口发展战略研究报告》.报告分析了当前我国面临的人口挑战的复杂性和艰巨性,提出了未来我国人口发展的战略目标和指导思想.     

对我国人口发展战略研究方法的探讨

我国是一个有十亿人口的大国,又面临现实人口问题,如何合理规划未来人口发展,正确制定我国未来人口发展战略,是一个非常重要的问题。建国初期,我国经济发展很快,人们的生活水平有了大幅度提高,从而     

21世纪中国面临的人口问题再认识以及应对策略

人口规模巨大引发的社会经济矛盾、劳动就业压力与结构性短缺并存和人口老龄化双重影响、城市化下巨大乡-城人口转移压力、出生性别比偏高、低生育水平的惯性副作用是未来人口发展中突出的问题。在大力发展社会经济的前提下,调整过低生育水平,协调和稳定未来人口年龄结构是人口发展战略的必然选择。     

百年经验与教训(三) 人口理论在中国人口实践中的历史地位

背　景站在新旧世纪之交 ,对过去进行总结与反思 ,以启鉴未来 ,似乎是各界各业的一项重要的历史任务。为此 ,人口研究杂志在今年也特别举办了三次冠以“百年经验与教训”的“人口与发展论坛”,对中国人口与人口学发展进行回顾、总结与反思。第一次讨论了 2 0世纪 5 0年代中国人口学的兴衰 ,对“马寅初事件”进行了反思 ;第二次对我国人口政策进行了历史总结与前景展望 ;而第三次 ,即本期的“人口与发展论坛”将关注中国人口理论的实践影响 ,及中国人口实践的理论创造。中国的人口理论与人口实践是紧密联系在一起的 ,其经验与教训 ,成就与失…     

城市可持续发展与人口安全——以上海为例

将安全意识纳入城市可持续发展战略,寻求人口与资源、环境、社会、经济系统的相互协调,实现共同安全和系统间的均衡发展已成为当前和未来城市管理的重要研究领域。本文以上海为例,从系统间视角分析了当前和未来人口发展过程中存在的安全隐患,并指出,人口与其它子系统的协调发展必须在相互适应、相互调节的过程中实现双向互动。     

建设国家生态屏障促进人口资源环境协调发展——关于内蒙古、甘肃等8省区人口资源环境问题的调研报告

国家人口发展战略研究表明,未来几十年是我国人口规模最为庞大,人与自然关系最为紧张的时期,同时也是人口迁移与流动最为频繁的时期.为贯彻落实<中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十一个五年规划的建议>关于编制全国主体功能区规划的总体要求,沉着应对未来一个时期巨大的人口压力,促进人口与资源环境的协调可持续发展,2005年我们启动了"生态屏障、功能区划与人口发展"的课题研究工作.     

人口政策与人力资源开发

人口政策是宏观调控人口数量和质量的政策 ,是对国家未来发展具有决定性影响的战略政策。一个国家的人口政策如何 ,将会极大地影响这个国家的人口发展 ,影响人力资源的发展方向和发展趋势 ,进而影响到国家未来社会经济的发展和国家的综合国力。我国的人口政策 ,在促使人力资源数量与社会经济发展相适应 ,提高人力资源的身体素质和科学文化素质 ,促进人力资源的合理利用方面 ,发挥了巨大的作用 ,产生了巨大的经济效益和社会效益     

"Mummies and babies" and friends and lovers in Lesotho

This paper examines an institutionalized friendship among adolescent girls and young women in southern Africa. Lesotho's economy is based on migrant male labor which leaves the women dependent on male earnings or subsistence from the land, and also creates unstable marital relations. Young girls in the modern schools develop close relationships, called "mummy-baby," with slightly older girls. Sexual intimacy is an important aspect of these relationships. Mummy-baby relationships not only provide emotional support prior to marriage, but also a network of support for married and unmarried women in new towns or schools, either replacing or accompanying heterosexual bonds.     

Understanding and Using Mediators and Moderators

Mediation and moderation are two theories for refining and understanding a causal relationship. Empirical investigation of mediators and moderators requires an integrated research design rather than the data analyses driven approach often seen in the literature. This paper described the conceptual foundation, research design, data analysis, as well as inferences involved in a mediation and/or moderation investigation in both experimental and non-experimental (i.e., correlational) contexts. The essential distinctions between the investigation of mediators and moderators were summarized and juxtaposed in an example of a causal relationship between test difficulty and test anxiety. In addition, the more elaborate models, moderated mediation and mediated moderation, the use of structural equation models, and the problems with model misspecification were discussed conceptually.

Complementary and alternative medicine: Interaction and communication between midwives and women

BackgroundMany pregnant women use complementary and alternative medicine. Although midwives are often supportive, how they communicate with women about the safe use of these therapies has received limited research attention.AimThe aim of this study was to explore how midwives interact with women regarding use of complementary and alternative medicine during pregnancy.MethodsWe utilised grounded theory methodology to collect and analyse data. Twenty-five midwives who worked in metropolitan hospitals situated in Melbourne, Australia, participated in the study. Data were collected from semi structured interviews and non-participant observations, over an 18-month period.FindingsHow midwives communicate about complementary and alternative medicine is closely associated with the meaning they construct around the woman's role in decisionmaking. Most aim to work in a manner consistent with the midwifery partnership model and share the responsibility for decisions regarding complementary and alternative medicine. However, although various therapies were commonly discussed, usually the pregnant woman initiated the dialogue. A number of contextual conditions such as the biomedical discourse, lack of knowledge, language barriers and workplace constraints, limited communication in some situations.ConclusionMidwives often interact with women interested in using CAM. Most value the woman's autonomy and aim to work in partnership. However, various contextual conditions restrain overt CAM communication in clinical practice.     

Injecting and Rejecting,Framing and Failing

This paper seeks to examine how female subjectivities are privileged by Canadian human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination discourse and, in turn, how homosexual male subjectivities are displaced. Employing a Critical Discourse Analysis approach, I analyze selected HPV vaccination (HPVV) promotional materials, and depict the discursive strategies which privilege and exclude gendered subjectivities. My critical analysis is influenced by feminist linguistic works that seek to uncover the discursive constructions around sexuality, gender and identity, and the discursive strategies used to communicate ideas about sexual health risks and responsible citizenship. In addition, I adopt feminist theories of knowledge and power to rethink the discursive representations of some bodies and subjectivities as normal, and Others as unintelligible within HPVV discourse in today's neoliberal time.     

Beliefs and values and the sterilization decision

A decision-making framework based on the models of personal decision making developed by psychologists and economists and a methodology based on axiomatic conjoint measurement are used to explore individuals' beliefs and values regarding contraceptive sterilization. Particular emphasis is given to demonstrating a. that there exist individual differences in beliefs and values, b. that there exist differences in beliefs and values between persons who choose sterilization—either tubal ligation or vasectomy—and persons who choose non-sterilization contraceptive methods when no more children are wanted, and c. that the effect of beliefs and values on the sterilization decision is an interactive one. The methodology used is compared to that typically used in studying fertility- and health-related behaviors.This research was supported by grants HD-10802 and HD-14403 from the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development. The technical assistance of Doreen Victor and the editorial suggestions of Sarah Gaskill, Alice Healy, and two anonymous reviewers are greatly appreciated. This paper is Publication No. 253 of the Center for Research on Judgment and Policy, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309-0344. Requests for reprints should be sent to the Publications Librarian at the Center.     

Family Instability and College Enrollment and Completion

This research uses data from waves I and IV of the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (Add Health, N = 9,631) to consider whether and how family instability in early or later childhood affects college enrollment and completion of a Bachelor’s degree by age 24. Explanatory factors include maternal selection into unstable unions, household resources available in adolescence, and adolescents’ academic achievement, behavior, and attitudes in high school. The association of later family instability with college enrollment and completion is largely explained by household resources in adolescence. The association of early family instability with college enrollment is partially explained by each set of factors, and its association with college completion, given enrollment, is explained by pre-existing maternal characteristics. The results demonstrate that early family instability has enduring consequences for eventual status attainment and that the mechanisms that connect family instability to educational outcomes vary by the timing of family structure change.     

The relationships between population and economy, and between population and education]

The relationship between population and economy is regarded seriously by China and other countries. This problem can be analyzed and studied under 2 aspects: 1) the influence of economic development on changes in population, and 2) the influence of population increases on economic development. Under the 1st aspect, improved living conditions, hygiene, and health care generally result in lowered mortality rates. Improved economic conditions in China also increased the birthrate and at the same time increased birth control among the people; the increased birthrate was due to more marriages after liberation. In economically advanced countries, due to high expenses in raising children, people tend to limit family sizes to 2 children/family. Under the 2nd aspect, population increases place strains on the food supply and nutritional requirements, especially when increases are too rapid. They also demand more educational resources and influence quality of education. As there are currently 210 million students in China, the quality of education suffers, particularly at the college level, since most of Chinese manpower, physical and financial resources are spent on primary and secondary education. In terms of housing, transportation, health care, and natural resources, they are all intimately related to and influenced by increases in population. Consequently, the living standard would be difficult to raise if population increases are too rapid. Since 1971, population increases have been incorporated into 5-yearly and later yearly national economic plans in China. The large Chinese population is a major obstacle in raising the Chinese economic level, hence a well-planned population control program is essential.     

Officer friendly and the tough cop:gays and lesbians navigate homophobia and policing

Despite attempts to expand social diversity, policing is still dominated by a white, masculine, heterosexual ethos. As a consequence, employment of lesbians and gay men as police officers may be especially threatening to members of this occupation. Within the context of potential hostility and homophobia, nontraditional officers must negotiate their contradictory presence on the police force. This paper investigates that negotiation. Using the Bem Sex Role Inventory and open-ended survey data from a sample of "out" and "closeted" gay and lesbian police officers, we ask how gays and lesbians manage their images as "good cops" in the face of gender norm violations associated with their sexual orientation. Our findings indicate that masculinity and femininity do not hold together in a cohesive, dichotomous manner for these officers. Instead, other characteristics that enhance policing are emphasized to support their occupational competence. These officers see themselves as "good cops." The gendered/sexualized character of their self-perceptions appears to matter less than the context of the job, more than for a comparison sample of heterosexual police officers. We conclude that although gay and lesbian officers see their sexuality as an occupational asset, they are also likely to work harder to prove themselves as crime fighters.