Demographic change and social security

This paper gives an overview over some central aspects of the highly complex topic, pointing out, e.g. the need for more longitudinal research in understanding effects of structural changes in demography and economy on social security. Starting from challenges by an ageing population for health and pension schemes it is briefly discussed whether changes in labour force participation or restructuring public expenditure can soften financing problems. Concerning reforms in pension schemes first changing retirement ages is briefly discussed and then some of the shortcomings in the debate on capital funding versus pay-as-you-go fincancing.Revised, updated and extended version of a lecture, given at the First Annual Congress of the European Society for Population Economics, Rotterdam, September 18, 1987. Revision and extension were inspired by two referees.     

Life satisfaction and the economic and social characteristics of neighbourhoods

This paper uses data from the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey to investigate the association between neighbourhood effects and life satisfaction. We find that neighbourhood measures of social support and interaction and the absence of socio-economic deprivation are positively and significantly correlated with individual life satisfaction. Neighbourhood fixed effects, however, explain only an additional 1.5 to 2.5% of the variance in life satisfaction over the 14% explained by individual characteristics.

Self-perceived health status,gender, and work status

ABSTRACT

This study analyzes the relationship between gender and self-perceived health status in Spanish retirees and housewives from a sample of 1,106 community-dwelling older adults. A multivariate linear regression model was used in which self-perceived health status was measured by the EQ-5D visual analogue scale and gender according to work status (retired men and women and housewives). Retired males reported a significantly better health status than housewives. Self-perceived health status was closely associated with physical, mental, and functional health and leisure activities. Finally, being a woman with complete dedication to domestic work is associated with a worse state of self-perceived health.     

Demographic pressure,economic development,and social engineering: An assessment of fertility declines in the second half of the twentieth century

Population Research and Policy Review - Concerns over the prospects of explosive demographic growth led to concerted efforts to engineer fertility reductions in the developing world, while skeptics...     

Family structure,economic status,and educational attainment

This study examines the effect of family structure on high school graduation by race and gender using data from the first twenty-one waves of the Panel Study of Income Dynamics and recently available retrospective marital histories. The nature of the data allows for a more complete specification of family structure than has been heretofore possible. The analysis tests the hypothesis that the negative effect on educational attainment often associated with living in a mother-only or stepfather family stems primarily from the reduced level of economic resources available to these households. Empirical findings indicate that living with a widowed, divorced, or separated mother has little or no effect on educational attainment once we control for economic status. However, living in a stepfather family appears to have a persistent negative effect on high school graduation rates. Received: 24 July 1995 / Accepted: 9 September 1997     

Demographic and economic correlates of health in old age

In this paper we examine disparities in the ability to function among older Americans. We place special emphasis on two goals: (I) understanding the quantitatively large socioeconomic status-health gradient, and (2) the persistence in health outcomes over long periods. We find that there exist strong contemporaneous and long-run feedbacks from health to economic status. In light of these feedbacks, it is important to distinguish among alternative sources of income and the recipient of income in the household. This research also demonstrates that health outcomes at old age are influenced by health attributes of past, concurrent, and future generations of relatives. Finally, we find that the demographic and economic differences that exist among them explain functional health disparities by race and ethnicity, but not by gender.     

Length of residence,social ties,and economic opportunities

This study examines length of residence for movers—that subsection of the population which accounts for the high mobility rates in the United States. The propensity for repeated migration is studied in relation to economic opportunities and previous familial and personal contacts. The results indicate no influence of economic opportunities on duration of residence. This finding is consistent with recent research that indicates economic conditions are not a general stimulus for out-migration, although they are for in-migration. On the other hand, length of residence is found to be longer where previous familial and personal contacts existed. Overall, the results provide additional evidence of the importance of social, as opposed to strictly economic, variables in the migration process.     

The economic measurement and determinants of diversity

This paper has a 2-fold objective: (1) To introduce a measure that would be of general applicability in measuring diversity in different institutions. (2) To identify the determinants of diversity in child-care centers and, in particular, to examine whether the for-profit sector is less diverse than the not-for-profit sector in the child-care industry as the statistics suggest. Using our measure, we isolate factors that significantly influence diversity by using an economic model that makes diversity a decision variable of a firm. Two measures of diversity are suggested: absolute diversity and relative diversity (diversity relative to the surrounding community). To select a suitable index, the Herfindahl measure of concentration is considered relative to several suitable ecological indices measuring species diversity, and found to be virtually identical to such indices. Thus theH-index is used in both absolute and relative measures. Empirical estimation of both absolute and relative diversity equations use probability models and isolate factors that significantly influence both absolute diversity of child-care centers as well as their diversity relative to their respective counties. The data used is the recently released Profile of Child-Care Settings collected by the Mathematica Policy Research.     

Demographic and economic changes in the Sinkiang Uighur autonomous region

Abstract The following characteristics of the population of Sinkiang are discussed: growth, stressing the importance of the immigration of Han Chinese; age-sex ratios; marital status; ethnic composition; education; health; and urbanisation. Economic development as it affects the composition of population, especiallyindustrial, agricultural and pastoral trends are also considered. A final section deals with the geo-political and demographic implications of the Sino-Soviet dispute.     

Demographic transition and economic growth: Empirical evidence from Greece

Over the past decades, due to a combination of declining fertility rates and rising life expectancies, most industrialized countries have experienced aging populations and low numbers of young populations that may pose economic problems in the future. This paper investigates the relationship first between fertility rate and infant mortality rate and second among demographic changes, real wages and real output in Greece over the period 1960–96. When we control for fluctuations in overall economic activity and the labor market on the bivariate relationship between fertility and mortality rates, the evidence suggests that Granger-causation must exist in at least one direction. The results show that in the long run a decrease in infant mortality rates, taking into consideration economic performance and the labor market, causes a reduction in fertility rates. Also, employing the vector error-correction models, the variance decomposition analysis and the impulse response functions, the empirical results support the endogeneity of fertility choice to infant mortality, the labor market and the growth process. Received: 16 May 1999/Accepted: 18 September 2000     

How economic development can overcome culture: Demographic change in Punjab,India

This paper looks at the recent declines in fertility and mortality that have occurred in the state of Punjab in India and examines the evidence on the proposition that these have resulted from changes in the sociocultural structure of Punjab - especially those aspects of this structure which influence levels of female status. The article concludes that in fact rates of birth and death (especially at the older ages) have fallen in spite of the persistence of cultural norms and practices that limit female autonomy and that should therefore theoretically favour high fertility and mortality. It is suggested that at this stage of the state's demographic transition it might be more useful to look for causes in the relatively remarkable economic prosperity that the area has witnessed in the last two decades.     

The relation of psychological,social, and economic variables to fertility-related decisions

To test a recent model of social behavior, a questionnaire was designed and administered to 270 married women in a midwestern city. A stratified random sample was obtained, comprising a 2 × 3 factorial design (Catholic vs. Protestant and high vs. middle vs. low socioeconomic status). It was hypothesized that an individual’s intention to engage in a fertility-related behavior would be highly correlated with (a) her beliefs about the consequences of performing that behavior weighted by the value of those consequences, and/or (b) her beliefs about what relevant others think she should do and her motivation to comply with those others. The data strongly supported this hypothesis for each of three different behaviors. Analysis of variance revealed a significant religious differential for intentions to have a two-child family (Catholics were less likely to intend to have a two-child family than Protestants). This differential was further examined in terms of the proposed model of behavior.     

Composite measures of social,economic and demographic regional differentiation in Australia

This paper describes the application of the two-stage principal component method to analyse Australian aggretate/regional/ data. Statistical indicators of social standing, economic structure and demographic features are analysed separately in order to obtain composite measures of various complex characteristics of the regions in each of these domains. The method does not assume statistical independency of principal components, so the relations between them are examined. The index of regional socio-economic status as well as its relations to other characteristics are of the main interest.     

Responsive Survey Design,Demographic Data Collection,and Models of Demographic Behavior

To address declining response rates and rising data-collection costs, survey methodologists have devised new techniques for using process data (“paradata”) to address nonresponse by altering the survey design dynamically during data collection. We investigate the substantive consequences of responsive survey design—tools that use paradata to improve the representative qualities of surveys and control costs. By improving representation of reluctant respondents, responsive design can change our understanding of the topic being studied. Using the National Survey of Family Growth Cycle 6, we illustrate how responsive survey design can shape both demographic estimates and models of demographic behaviors based on survey data. By juxtaposing measures from regular and responsive data collection phases, we document how special efforts to interview reluctant respondents may affect demographic estimates. Results demonstrate the potential of responsive survey design to change the quality of demographic research based on survey data.     

Social, cultural, and economic determinants of age at birth of first child in Peninsular Malaysia

Summary In order to unravel the complex set of the determinants of fertility, we suggest that the child-bearing process be separated into a sequence of events and intervals. As the first step in the child-bearing process, age at first birth is a critical variable. Using data from the 1966-67 West Malaysia Family Survey, we formulate and test a model of the cultural, social and economic determinants of the timing of first birth among a sample of mothers, aged 30-44. Social origins, measured by the woman's father's occupation and the woman's birthplace are not important determinants, but education, early work experience, and ethnicity exercise very strong effects on the age at first birth. Age at first marriage mediates much of the effect of background variables, which suggest that there is little use of contraception to plan the first birth interval. The strong effect of ethnicity is consistent with a cultural interpretation, but important qualifications are noted.     

Marital instability and the economic status of women

This paper uses longitudinal data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics to examine the relationship between changes in marital status and economic status. Differences between men and women and between whites and blacks are also considered. A major finding is that, after adjusting for changes in family size, the economic status of divorced or separated men improves, while that of women declines. Components of income change are discussed, with special emphasis on changes in the labor force and welfare status of women who were divorced or separated during the analysis period. Finally, data on the magnitude and distribution of alimony/child-support payments are presented.     

人口红利与人口负债:数量界定、经验观察与理论思考

本文对人口红利与人口负债的概念、由来与数量界定进行了必要的理论阐述,构建了人口红利与人口负债的判别标准,对法国、日本与中国人口红利与人口负债演变的历史、现状与未来前景进行了比较分析,最后对人口红利与人口负债相关问题进行了理论上的探讨。     

Biological and social determinants of body size across the life span

The accuracy of demographic models designed to project future trends of population-level health and disease can be improved by incorporating biological data. One barrier to this process are quantitative characteristics of the data themselves. Biological data are characteristically time-dependent phenomena that behave in a nonlinear fashion. To develop accurate projections of the morbidity, disability, and mortality experience among future cohorts in late life, research needs to focus on development of models that create the opportunity to distinguish all-or-none, boundaries, and latency aspects of biological factors driving demographic phenomena, development of methods to identify time-dependent effects, and development of genetically informative samples. This presentation focuses on the biology of adult body size, its behavior as a variable in statistical analyses, and strategies for the incorporation of this variable into demographic models of population aging in the United States. First, several examples of generally observed quantitative characteristics of biological variables are reviewed. To illustrate the nonlinear character of biological data, three general patterns of change with aging are presented. Next, issues concerning the measurement of body size are discussed. Scenarios describing body size over the adult life span are described. By the end of this process, recommendations for starting a dialogue between researchers interested in biological endpoints (individual weight change, disease risk) and those interested in demographic outcomes (population-level disease and disability issues) using body size will be presented.     

Demographic Cycles,Cohort Size,and Earnings

This article examines whether position in the demographic cycle is an important factor in determining earnings and earnings growth. Earnings equations for white males are estimated by using March Current Population Survey data. Position in the demographic cycle is captured by including both measures of own cohort size and the size of surrounding cohorts in the estimated earnings equations. Position in the demographic cycle matters. Increases in own cohort size lead to flatter earnings profiles, whereas increases in the size of surrounding cohorts are associated with steeper earnings profiles. The net effect is that those who enter the labor market before or after the peak of the demographic cycle start out with lower earnings but experience faster earnings growth. This pattern is uniform across all schooling groups: high school dropouts, high school graduates, those with some college, and college graduates.     

中国人口转变、人口红利与经济增长的实证

我国人口年龄结构的变动使得劳动负担逐渐下降,这对于储蓄水平的上升和劳动力投入效率的提高具有显著的促进作用;我国劳动负担比与经济增长呈现出明显的负相关,劳动负担比每下降1个百分点,经济增长将提高1.06个百分点,在过去的30年里劳动负担降低累计带来的经济增长占总增长的27.23%。通过计量检验证明人口年龄结构变动所产生的促进经济增长的人口红利是存在的。由此我们推断,由于未来的人口年龄结构变动趋向人口老龄化,劳动负担逐步上升,这将会对未来的经济增长造成制约。利用未来10～20年时间较轻的劳动负担的机遇期,我们应当建立良好的教育、人力资本投资、社会保障等方面的制度以及制定积极的人口政策,调整当前生育政策、适时执行宏观经济政策(劳动就业政策)来应对已发生的、正在进行的人口变动,使我国的经济继续保持强有力的增长态势。