Credit programs for the poor and reproductive behavior in low-income countries: Are the reported causal relationships the result of heterogeneity bias?

Group-based lending programs for the poor have drawn much attention recently. As many of these programs target women, an important research question is whether program participation significantly changes reproductive behavior and whether the gender of the participant matters. Using survey data from 87 Bangladeshi villages, we estimate the impact of female and male participation in group-based credit programs on reproductive behavior while attending to issues of self-selection and endogeneity. Wefind no evidence that women s participation in group-based credit programs increases contraceptive use or reduces fertility. Men So participation reduces fertility and may slightly increase contraceptive use.     

Microcredit,Family Planning Programs,and Contraceptive Behavior: Evidence From a Field Experiment in Ethiopia

The impact of community-based family planning programs and access to credit on contraceptive use, fertility, and family size preferences has not been established conclusively in the literature. We provide additional evidence on the possible effect of such programs by describing the results of a randomized field experiment whose main purpose was to increase the use of contraceptive methods in rural areas of Ethiopia. In the experiment, administrative areas were randomly allocated to one of three intervention groups or to a fourth control group. In the first intervention group, both credit and family planning services were provided and the credit officers also provided information on family planning. Only credit or family planning services, but not both, were provided in the other two intervention groups, while areas in the control group received neither type of service. Using pre- and post-intervention surveys, we find that neither type of program, combined or in isolation, led to an increase in contraceptive use that is significantly greater than that observed in the control group. We conjecture that the lack of impact has much to do with the mismatch between women’s preferred contraceptive method (injectibles) and the contraceptives provided by community-based agents (pills and condoms).     

Gender and savings in rural India

In this study we use data from rural India to examine the impact of the birth of a boy relative to the birth of a girl (i.e., the “gender shock”) on the savings, consumption and income of rural Indian households. We find that the gender shock reduces savings for medium and large farm households, although there is no evidence that the shock affects savings for the landless and the small farm households. We also estimate the effect of the shock on income and consumption for the former group in order to determine the source of the drop in savings. The results indicate that the fall in savings subsequent to the gender shock arises from its effect on consumption in the year following the birth, and from its effect on income in other years. Received: 3 September 1996 /Accepted: 15 July 1997     

Job Displacement and First Birth Over the Business Cycle

In this article, we investigate the impact of job displacement on women’s first-birth rates as well as the variation in this effect over the business cycle. We use mass layoffs to estimate the causal effects of involuntary job loss on fertility in the short and medium term, up to five years after displacement. Our analysis is based on rich administrative data from Germany, with an observation period spanning more than 20 years. We apply inverse probability weighting (IPW) to flexibly control for the observed differences between women who were and were not displaced. To account for the differences in the composition of the women who were displaced in a downturn and the women who were displaced in an upswing, we use a double weighting estimator. Results show that the extent to which job displacement has adverse effects on fertility depends on the business cycle. The first-birth rates were much lower for women who were displaced in an economic downturn than for those who lost a job in an economic upturn. This result cannot be explained by changes in the observed characteristics of the displaced women over the business cycle.     

Family migration and changes in women's earnings: A decomposition analysis

Married women who migrate with their families experience relative earnings losses after migration. In this study, we use data from the 1987 Wave of the Panel Study of Income Dynamics to explicitly examine the relative importance of three sources of those losses: labor force participation, hours of labor supplied, and wages. We estimate earnings models with Heckman's sample selection method for each of four years following migration. The results and subsequent coefficient decomposition methods show that labor force exit and a reduction of labor supplied contribute the largest share to the earnings penalty attached to migration for married women. The participation effect, although reduced in size, is significant for three years following migration. The wages of employed married women who migrate appear to be unaffected in any year following migration.     

Women’s economic capacity and children’s human capital accumulation

Programs that increase the economic capacity of poor women can have cascading effects on children’s participation in school and work that are theoretically undetermined. We present a simple model to describe the possible channels through which these programs may affect children’s activities. Based on a cluster-randomized trial, we examine how a program providing capital and training to women in poor rural communities in Nicaragua affected children. Children in beneficiary households are more likely to attend school 1 year after the end of the intervention. An increase in women’s influence on household decisions appears to contribute to the program’s beneficial effect on school attendance.     

A Few Good Men and Women: Gender,Race, and Status in the Wartime Volunteer Military

Much is known about the men who entered the US military during draft era wars and the peacetime volunteer era. Relatively less is known about those who turned 18 during the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Journalists, advocates, and politicians have expressed concern that wartime volunteer service has been inequitable. Yet there is apparently only one peer-reviewed article that explores the socioeconomic characteristics of the men who came of age after the start of the recent wars, and none that evaluate how race and status of female recruits varied. To assess these questions, the following article develops a theoretical model building on the status attainment and life course traditions. It uses data from the Educational Longitudinal Study of 2002, which contains information about a national sample of people who became eligible to join the armed forces during the height of the wartime volunteer era. It does not find evidence that low-status and minority men were disproportionately likely to enlist. Indeed, those with low-status were less likely to do so, partly because they were excluded by military standards. Men were particularly unlikely to join the armed forces, however, if they grew up in high-status rather than families in the middle of the status distribution. By contrast, women were most likely to join the armed forces if they came from the lower-middle than from anywhere else in the status distribution. Minority men were no more likely than white men to enlist, but black women were disproportionately likely to join the military.     

The labor supply of Latinas in the USA: Comparing labor force participation, wages, and hours worked with Anglo and Black women

This study explores the determinants of labor supply patterns among Latinas in the USA. We use recent microeconomic data from the Panel Study on Income Dynamics/Latino National Political Survey (PSID-LNPS) to estimate models of labor force participation, wages, and hours worked for a sample of Cuban, Mexican, and Puerto Rican women. We estimate the same models for Anglo and Black women in order to explore ethnic differences in the impact of characteristics affecting both the reservation and the market wage. We find that differences exist in the return to characteristics, such as education, but that there are also substantial differences in the levels of those characteristics across ethnic groups. The low wage rates and labor market activity of Latinas relative to Anglo and Black women are thus likely to be the combined result of lower investments in human capital and larger family size, the greater negative impact of macroeconomic conditions, and a stronger responsiveness to wages. Among Latinas, we find that there are differences in labor market outcomes between national origin and nativity groups. We also find that age at arrival and years in the USA play a role in labor supply, and that this is particularly true for Puerto Rican women.     

Local labor markets,children and labor force participation of wives

Most research on married women’s labor force participation relates characteristics of individual women to their probability of labor force participation. Some studies relate characteristics of geographic areas to average labor force participation rates in those areas, although these aggregate level analyses are usually gross tests of ideas about individuallevel processes. Here we take a quintessentially sociological perspective and seek to understand how characteristics of geographic areas structure the relationship between properties of individual women and their probabilities oflabor force participation. Our analysis has two steps. In step one, we fit individual-level probit models of married women’s probability of labor force participation. A separate model is fitted in each of 409 areas using 1970 Census data, and the relationship between individual characteristics and labor force participation is found to vary substantially across areas. In step two, we attempt to explain areal variation in the effects of women’s children on their labor force participation. We hypothesize that the effect of children on their mothers’ labor force participation is a function ofthe cost and availability of childcare, and of the “convenience” of jobs for working mothers in the places where the mothers live. Measures of childcare cost, childcare availability and job convenience are developed. Weighted least squares analyses of probit coefficients from the first stage are, in general, very consistent with our findings, and suggest that the approach taken in this paper is likely to be a fruitful one for future studies.     

Sibling gender composition’s effect on education: evidence from China

We use a population survey of the Chinese adult population—2010 Chinese Family Panel Studies (CFPS) modeled after the Panel Study of Income Dynamics. We find that being the oldest child gives an education benefit to male and not female children who are often assigned supervisory roles for younger siblings. Most importantly, an increase in the fraction of female siblings leads to a significant increase in education of Chinese men and to a lesser extent Chinese women. This effect is concentrated among those with rural Hukou. In China, male children absorbed more education resources so that in a credit constrained family, increases in fraction of siblings who are sisters frees up resources for educating boys. This is less so for girls since their education was lower and additional resources would not be used for them.     

Employment and self-employment in the wake of Hurricane Katrina

We use data from the monthly Current Population Survey to examine the short- and longer-term effects of Hurricane Katrina on the labor market outcomes of prime-age individuals in the most affected states—Alabama, Florida, Louisiana, and Mississippi— and for evacuees in any state. We focus on rates of labor force participation, employment, and unemployment, and we extend prior research by also examining rates of self-employment. With the exception of Mississippi, employment and unemployment one year after the hurricane were at similar rates as the end of 2003. This aggregate pattern of labor market shock and recovery has been observed for other disasters but masks important differences among subgroups. Those evacuated from their residences, even temporarily, were a harder-hit group, and evacuees who had yet to return to their pre-Katrina state up to one year later were hit especially hard; these findings hold even after controlling for differences in observable characteristics. We also find evidence of an important role for self-employment as part of post-disaster labor market recovery, especially for evacuees who did not return. This may result from poor job prospects in the wage and salary sector or new opportunities for starting businesses in the wake of Katrina.     

Microcredit and Domestic Violence in Bangladesh: An Exploration of Selection Bias Influences

This article explores the relationship between women’s participation in microcredit groups and domestic violence in Bangladesh. Several recent studies have raised concern about microcredit programs by reporting higher levels of violence among women who are members. These results, however, may be attributable to selection bias because members might differ from nonmembers in ways that make them more susceptible to violence to begin with. Using a sample of currently married women from the 2007 Bangladesh Demographic Health Survey (BDHS) (N = 4,195), we use propensity score matching (PSM) as a way of exploring selection bias in this relationship. Results suggest that the previously seen strong positive association between membership and violence does not hold when an appropriate comparison group, generated using PSM, is used in the analyses. Additional analyses also suggest that levels of violence do not differ significantly between members and nonmembers and instead could depend on context-specific factors related to poverty. Members for whom a match is not found report considerably higher levels of violence relative to nonmembers in the unmatched group. The background characteristics of members and nonmembers who do not match suggest that they are more likely to be younger and from relatively well-to-do households.     

Family growth and family planning: Responses to a family-planning action program in a rural district of Thailand

A resurvey of a rural district in Thailand, of about 70,000 population, was conducted after a family-planning program had been in operation for eight months in order to ascertain indications of effectiveness of the program. Both the "before" and "after" surveys employed a 25 percent simple random, though non-overlapping, sample of married women 20-44 years of age whose husbands were living. The only difference in design and execution was the inclusion in the resurvey of questions about the action program. Barring one or two exceptions, the characteristics of the two population samples were so similar that differences in knowledge, attitudes, and practices could be regarded as effects of the program.The action program not only made itself widely known in the district, it also evoked a highly favorable appraisal, to such an extent that nine of every ten women thought the program should be extended over the entire kingdom. Motivation to engage in family planning increased perceptibly. A substantial proportion (23 percent) of the women who formerly disapproved of the practice changed their attitudes to approval, mainly because they had become convinced of the harmlessness and the utility of fertility control. Less than 3 percent of the former approvers had become negative.The proportion of women who claimed some kind of knowledge about contraceptive methods more than doubled during the eight months of the program's operation. More impressive, however, was the change in actual use of methods, which rose from 1 to 21 percent of the eligible women (women who were not pregnant, subfecund, or sterilized). Another 16 percent, in the resurvey, planned to begin use of contraceptives in the near future, in most instances after a current pregnancy. The frequency of acceptance of family planning practice exceeded the expected frequency among women who were approaching or had attained the "ideal" number of children (4.0 children). High-parity women 40 or more years of age seldom accepted clinical assistance.     

A study on the effectiveness of sterilizations in reducing the birth rate

This study analyzed 1,081 women in Kerala State (India) who were either sterilized or were the wives of sterilized men, and by examining the fertility among a comparable group of 1,000 other women, estimated the number of prevented future births per 1,000 women in the sterilized group. The results of this estimation were then applied to project what the entire savings in births might be over a 3D-year period in the entire Kerala population if each year there were one, three, or five sterilizations performed per 1,000 of total population. The results failed to confirm the hope that the crude birth rate would be decreased by 12 per 1,000 in a decade merely by sterilization of five per 1,000 of the population per annum. The study also discusses various measures of reduction in the crude birth rate. By a reasonable measure, the reduction in the crude birth rate for Kerala from such a sterilization program is estimated as seven points after a decade or nine points after three decades, reflecting decreases of 21 and 36 per cent, respectively, in the number of births.     

The link between population density and welfare participation

This article explores a neglected topic in the social welfare, poverty, and demographic literatures—the link between population density and welfare participation in the United States. Longitudinal data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics are used to meet two objectives: first, to test whether a relationship exists between population density and use of the food stamp program among eligible households; second, to explore the potential reasons for such a relationship. Our findings show that population density has a strong, positive impact on the likelihood of participating in the food stamp program. Low-income respondents in urban areas are significantly more likely to use food stamps in both an aggregate and a multivariate context. In analyzing the dynamic underlying such an effect, we find that those in urban areas are more likely to possess accurate eligibility information and to hold less adverse attitudes toward the use of welfare. These factors in turn increase the likelihood of food stamp participation.     

The earned income tax credit and fertility

Government programs designed to provide income safety nets often restrict eligibility to families with children, creating an unintended fertility incentive. This paper considers whether dramatically changing incentives in the earned income tax credit affect fertility rates in the USA. We use birth certificate data spanning the period 1990 to 1999 to test whether expansions in the credit influenced birthrate among targeted families. While economic theory would predict a positive fertility effect of the program for many eligible women, our results indicate that expanding the credit produced only extremely small reductions in higher order fertility among white women.

The effect of subsidized family planning services on reproductive behavior in the United States, 1969–1974

This paper evaluates the impact of federally subsidized family planning programs in the United States, from 1969 to 1974, on the reproductive behavior of ever-married women, 15–44 years old. The study began with an experimental design and the random assigment of areas to treatment and control but was completed as a multivariate analysis, treating program input as an interval-scaled independent variable. Using “before” and “after” area sample surveys and patient service data from operating programs, the demographic impact of the program was estimated. The impact detected was nonsignificant; according to our analysis, overall use of physician-administered contraception was not affected by the subsidized programs. The only program-induced change of activity related to reproduction that we recorded was increased use of subsidized services in study areas with high program input and increased use of private physician services where program input was low. These findings need to be interpreted with the caution usually exercised in evaluating imperfect field experiments.     

Does a food for education program affect school outcomes? The Bangladesh case

The Food for Education (FFE) program was introduced to Bangladesh in 1993. This paper evaluates the effect of this program on school participation and duration of schooling using household survey data collected in 2000. Using propensity score matching combined with difference-in-differences methodologies, we find that the program is successful in that eligible children on average have 15% to 26% higher school participation rates, relative to their counterfactuals who would have been eligible for the program had they lived in the program-eligible areas. Conditional on school participation, participants also stay at school 0.7 to 1.05 years longer than their counterfactuals.     

Differences in labour force participation by motherhood status among second-generation Turkish and majority women across Europe

Second-generation Turkish immigrants make up an increasingly important segment of European labour markets. These young adults are entering the prime working ages and forming families. However, we have only a limited understanding of the relationship between labour force participation and parenthood among second-generation Turkish women. Using unique data from the Integration of the European Second Generation survey (2007/08), we compared the labour force participation of second-generation Turkish women with their majority-group counterparts by motherhood status in four countries. We found evidence that motherhood gaps, with respect to labour force participation, were similar for majority and second-generation Turkish women in Germany and in Sweden; however, there may be larger gaps for second-generation mothers than for majority women in the Netherlands and France. Cross-national findings were consistent with the view that national normative and social policy contexts are relevant for the labour force participation of all women, regardless of migrant background.     

Sterility in a Population with Natural Fertility

In this paper we examine the age pattern of sterility in a natural fertility population of 16 English parishes. We examine estimators of sterility proposed by historical demographers. We demonstrate through Monte Carolo simulation of reproductive histories that the estimators proposed earlier work well only if the ages to which the estimates pertain are substantially modified from the original formulation. The new estimates show a much larger positive effect of childbearing on sterility than would the earlier ones. We also present estimates of the age pattern of sterility due solely to the process of ageing by eliminating secondary sterility induced by childbearing. This curve rises slowly until age 40, after which the proportion sterile increases rapidly with age. We find no evidence of a sharp rise in the risk of sterility in the 30s. We find strong evidence of a decline in fecundity by examining age-specific fertility rates only for those women who are known to be fecund because they later bear children. The evidence suggests only a moderate decline until ages 35–39 and a much steeper decline thereafter.Finally, we illustrate the danger of the use of a clinical test of infertility commonly employed. We show that if women are judged to be infertile because they have not become pregnant within one year of unprotected exposure, then a large fraction of those so judged will be falsely diagnosed. We conclude that the one-year period is too short.