State of the Union addresses and presidential position taking: Do presidents back their rhetoric in the legislative arena?

Politicians and presidents are routinely criticized for the mismatch between their policy statements and their legislative actions. While a few studies explore presidents’ support for policy commitments made during their election campaigns, no study systematically examines this relationship for presidents throughout their terms. To determine whether presidents follow through on their policy statements, I examine presidential mentions of three policy areas in State of the Union addresses from 1953 to 2000 and presidents’ subsequent positions on floor votes in Congress. The results indicate that rhetorical attention to economic policy and foreign relations in these speeches increases the chances that presidents will take positions on legislation in these same areas, but there is a disconnect between the rhetoric and their actions on health and social welfare policy. I suggest that this difference can be attributed to their anticipation of success in each policy area because presidents do not want to attach themselves to legislative defeats.     

U.S. foreign policies of presidents Bush and Clinton: The influence of China's most favored nation status upon human rights issues

The United States must find a new direction in its efforts to curb China's human rights abuses. The change will be a slow and difficult one, with each step measured by countless sacrifices. Without such steps, however, tens of thousands will suffer. During the last two presidential administrations, focus on human rights issues has increased as a result of the Tiananmen Square massacre. With the recent signing of China's most favored nation (MFN) status, Clinton has succesfully separated the issues of human rights abuses and international economics. Although he may have hoped to curb such abuses early in his presidency, he fell victim to the growing complexity of Congress and the ability of special interest groups to influence legislators. A possible explanation for the support of the MFN status by both presidents may be evident in their previous experiences. Bush, a former ambassador to China and representative at the United Nations, had a strong foreign policy background. Clinton, however, with a weak foreign policy background and no military experience, relies heavily on Vice President Gore's military history—during the Vietnam War—as well as his strengths in foreign service.     

The Impact of Presidential Speeches on the Bureaucracy*

Objective. Scholars have long held that presidents use various tools to control the federal bureaucracy. Yet, despite their importance to presidents in achieving their policy goals in Congress, few scholars have examined the impact of presidential speeches on bureaucratic activity. This article analyzes the impact of both positive and negative policy signals on civil rights policy in the bureaucracy. Method. I test this hypothesis using speeches coded from the Public Papers of the Presidents and their impact on criminal cases filed by the Civil Rights Division over time. Given heteroskedasticity in the dependent variable, log‐linear time‐series methods are appropriate. Results. The president's positive speeches increase the number of criminal civil rights cases filed in U.S. District Court. The Civil Rights Act of 1964 also has had a significant, positive impact on bureaucratic activity. Conclusions. In part because bureaucrats have discretion to resist presidential preferences that oppose an agency's core task, negative signals do not affect the implementation of civil rights policy. Yet, positive presidential speeches are available to presidents who may wish to influence the bureaucracy.     

The Timing of Presidential Cinema*

Objective. Researchers have examined the social meaning of political cinema; however, little research places film into its contemporary political and economic context. Therefore, I examine the timing of the production and release of presidential cinema. Methods. The data are comprised of major motion picture releases from the years 1953–2004 that include a U.S. president as a character. Regression analysis is used to determine how the temporal release of movies featuring a president corresponds to social realities. Results. I find that the release of presidential cinema is correlated with the party that controls the actual White House and with the number of consecutive terms that the same party has been in the White House. More films with presidents are released during Democratic administrations than during Republican administrations and more films with presidents are released during first rather than second terms. This appears more acute during presidential election years. The state of the national economy affects the release of presidential cinema as well. Strong economies lead to the release of more films with presidents. Conclusions. This suggests that popular film content is affected not only by filmmaker whim and creativity, but also by measurable contemporary political and economic conditions. Future studies investigating film content should account for how national trends affect popular entertainment.     

Housing and Accommodation of Irish Travellers: From Assimilationism to Multiculturalism and Back Again

This article charts the changing conceptualization of Travellers in relevant Irish central government policy statements since the 1960s, together with the accommodation policy initiatives devised on this basis. It interprets developments in this regard as a movement from assimilationism to integrationism to (weak) multiculturalism. The article also reveals a significant “policy implementation deficit”, which is manifested in two ways. Firstly, accommodation output has generally failed to meet central government targets and has consistently failed to reduce the numbers of Travellers living in unofficial encampments. Secondly, the type of accommodation provided has often been at variance with central government recommendations. Thus, an assimilationist policy statement has effected multicultural policy outcomes, while a multiculturalist policy statement has effected assimilationist policy outcomes. These patterns of accommodation output are related to various implementation variables—some long‐standing, others new—which have impeded the implementation of national policy by actors on the ground.     

Determinants of presidential position taking in Congress, 1949–1995

In this paper we seek to explain the activity presidential position taking on roll call votes in the House. Position taking may help presidents pursue their policy agendas, but time and available resources constrain their ability to take positions. Even though position taking is a discretionary presidential action, it occurs in the legislative arena and, thus, presidents must consider elements in both institutions as well as outside conditions when making this decision. Accordingly, we posit a multiple perspectives approach to explain the number of presidential positions on votes in the House. Our multivariate two-stage least squares regression reveals that variables from all three environments (executive, legislative and exogenous) within our multiple perspectives approach are necessary to adequately explain presidential position taking overall and when divided according to domestic and foreign policy positions.     

Determinants of presidents’ legislative support in the House, 1949–1995

This paper has several purposes. First, it illustrates the changing nature of research on presidential–congressional relations. In general, scholarship has moved away from viewing the president as the dominant actor in the relationship, toward one of congressional influence, and ultimately toward emphasizing more equal power sharing between the two institutions. Second, we discuss our use of the most widely used measures of such relationships, presidents’ legislative support and success and our rationale for choosing the former. Third, we introduce three broad environments of presidential–congressional relations in order to explain such support from what we call a multiple perspectives approach. We find that variables from each of the three environments are important in explaining presidential support in the House. Fourth, we control for policy areas using the two presidencies typology and observe significant differences in support by domestic and foreign policy. Our multivariate two stage least squares (2SLS) analysis explains considerable variance in support across all three models. Finally, we explicate how our approach improves our understanding of this important presidential–congressional interaction.     

Presidential Direct Action and Policy Continuity: The Case of U.S. International Population Policy*

Objectives. The purpose of this study is to describe and analyze the modern practice of unilateral presidential policy making in the area of U.S. international population policy. The analysis focuses on the implications of this practice in a constitutional system intended to limit and constrain direct presidential action in policy making. Methods. The authors conduct their analysis using a variety of qualitative sources, including leading studies on the topics of presidential direct action and U.S. international population policy, and government documents. Conclusions. Policy development in this area has been marked by dramatic back‐and‐forth shifts due to the modern practice of presidents making many decisions without legislative involvement. Although not the only policy area in which this practice has become the norm, the case study of U.S. international population policy reveals the pitfalls of deviating from the constitutional design of a system of balanced and constrained powers.     

Presidential rhetoric,agency turnover,and the importance of salience to bureaucratic leadership

What explains the quit rates of federal agencies? Can presidential rhetoric affect quit rates of federal agencies, particularly those that implement salient policies? Although much research examines other ways presidents may affect the federal bureaucracy, absent is a systematic examination of presidential leadership of agency quit rates, despite the importance of personnel turnover to effective bureaucratic implementation. I argue that presidential rhetoric on the size of government can affect agency turnover. This impact is only likely for agencies that implement salient policies, because salience encourages bureaucratic responsiveness to elected officials. The findings reveal that presidents who speak more favorably about government reduce aggregate turnover in the Environmental Protection Agency and Department of Education from 1980 through 2005. I conclude with some observations about what these findings mean for presidential control of the bureaucracy.     

Electoral Politics, Ideology and American Social Policy

This article addresses the politics of social policy in the context of the 2004 American presidential election. It examines the divisions in American society and their distinctive agendas. It also explores the record of the Bush administration on key social policy issues and shows how it relates to the broader conservative tradition as well as to the Clinton administration's reform of welfare. Finally, it examines the election results. The article argues that the Bush administration has a distinctive agenda on social policy issues and that its approach is likely to reduce further the role of the social government in the provision of social policy, by emphasizing market forces and philanthropy as well as cutting taxes. It also notes, however, that the Bush administration has taken a strong stance on traditional moral values and that its opposition to abortion and homosexuality is an important part of its political strategy.     

The political economy of U.S. economic performance: is the president responsible?

A recurring theme in electoral politics is that American voters hold the president responsible for the state of the economy. Ironically, many Presidency scholars argue that presidents are ill equipped to manage the economy because other variables compete with and complicate the effects of fiscal policy. These include international variables, private market forces, and monetary policy, among others. Using simultaneous equation methods, we examine the direct and indirect effects of fiscal policy on economic performance while controlling for a variety of other determinants of economic performance. We find that fiscal policy plays a significant role in influencing unemployment and economic growth in the United States, even after controlling for a variety of other determinants of economic performance. We close by discussing the importance of linking the econometric modeling literature with the literature on presidential management of the economy.     

Acceptance of empirical statements: A Bayesian theory without cognitive utilities

What criteria should we use in deciding whether to accept any empirical statement as being true? A popular theory suggests that we should assign subjective probabilities to all possible statements representing alternative answers to any given question; and should assign cognitive utilities to acceptance and to nonacceptance of each statement in case it is true, and also in case it is false. Then, as to acceptance or nonacceptance of all these statements we should adopt that particular policy that would maximize our expected utility. This paper will propose an alternative Bayesian theory of acceptance for empirical statements, which will make no use of special cognitive utilities. It will be argued that the new theory will avoid the paradoxes created by some other theories of acceptance and will help us in resolving some important philosophical problems.     

Monitoring the Integrative Complexity of American and Soviet Policy Rhetoric: What Can Be Learned?

Research psychologists cannot tell us the ultimate motives behind Soviet foreign policy or the true causes of the cold war. They can, however, use content analysis methods with records of successful application in other contexts to explore the links between rhetoric and action in American-Soviet relations. This article describes a series of studies on the integrative complexity of American and Soviet foreign policy rhetoric. An ongoing time-series study (1945–1986) reveals a variety of determinants of policy rhetoric: the rhetoric of the other side, impending or current policy initiatives, American presidential election campaigns, and changes in both the American and Soviet leadership. The paper also describes preliminary work on the integrative complexity of statements of key Soviet leaders on economic and foreign policy issues, demonstrating that the current Soviet leader, Mikhail Gorbachev, is significantly more complex than either his immediate predecessors or his traditionalist rivals for the leadership. The article considers implications of the "Gorbachev effect" for our understanding of domestic Soviet politics and for designing American policy toward the Soviet Union.     

The Foreign Policy Beliefs of Political Campaign Contributors: A Post-Cold War Analysis

Objective. In this article we address two questions raised by the literature on the structure of foreign policy beliefs. First, has the end of the Cold War brought about any major changes in these belief systems? Second, how do ideology and economic interests shape these beliefs? Methods. We analyze data from a 1996 survey of U.S. presidential campaign contributors conducted by the Ray Bliss Center to determine the foreign policy belief systems of contributors. We then compare those results to the belief systems found in a 1988 survey of contributors. Results. We find that Cold War belief systems are quite durable. There was surprisingly little change in the structure or content of contributors' foreign policy beliefs between 1988 and 1996. We also find that both ideology and economic interests help shape these beliefs and examine the circumstances under which each of these two considerations appears to have the most important effects. Conclusions. Policymakers face new challenges since the end of the Cold War, but domestic political elites still approach foreign policy with a Cold War perspective. Also, although ideology is very important in determining how individuals think about foreign policy, material interests also make a difference for campaign contributors.     

Conservative Ideas and Social Policy in the United States

This article explores social policy development in the United States since the beginning of the George W. Bush presidency. Starting from an analysis of the discourse about compassionate conservatism at the centre of the 2000 presidential campaign and proceeding to a discussion of the meaning of the more recent ownership society blueprint, it underlines the fragmented nature of the conservative policy agenda in the United States. Yet, the article suggests that, despite this fragmentation, the ideological dominance of the right and the related absence of needed reform in key policy areas are of great significance for the future of federal social policy. Overall, the article shows how paying close attention to the nature of conservative ideas improves our understanding of social policy development in the United States. As argued, the old liberal and the traditionalist sides of American conservatism have inspired distinct yet related blueprints and reform proposals that both promote a scaling-down of existing federal social programmes and a return to traditional forms of economic security (i.e. charity and personal savings). The article underlines the relationship between these blueprints and policy drift.     

Advocacy coalitions and policy change on nuclear power utilization in Taiwan

Before the mid-1980s, the development of nuclear power was regarded as essential to facilitate Taiwan's rapid economic growth. Since 1980s, the feasibility of utilizing nuclear power has been intensively challenged. The policy impact of rise of the anti-nuclear movement and environmental movement in conjunction with democratizing trends is especially evident in the controversy over constructing the Fourth nuclear power plant in Taiwan. Ongoing construction of the plant was halted after the anti-nuclear presidential candidate won in Taiwan's 2000 presidential election. However, the decision to scrap the project was abandoned and the project was resumed in less than four months. This article applies the Advocacy Coalition Framework (ACF) to explain and analyze the development of advocacy coalition and policy change on nuclear power utilization in Taiwan. Based on this study, it is argued that the ACF could be more useful for comparative applications if it takes both political context and international influences into account.     

Ranking the presidential spouses

Numerous polls have offered rankings of the presidents but little effort has been made to rate the performance of the president's spouse. Not only has there been far less academic attention devoted to the first ladies, but there are difficulties inherent in assessing this “office” that presidential scholars need not worry about when ranking the commanders-in-chief. Yet, the first lady has emerged as a political “institution” worthy of scholarly attention, including an attempt at ranking them. This article provides the results of a poll ranking the first ladies, along with an analysis of the rankings between activist and traditionalist first ladies, first ladies of different historical periods, and between the presidents and their spouses.     

抗战时期“近卫声明”的来龙去脉

1938年的三次“近卫声明”，都是日本政府为找到一个代表中国的谈判对手达到其侵略的目标而发布的。第一次近卫声明打开了诱降的大门，第二次、第三次近卫声明则是在日本大规模侵华军事进攻告一段落和汪精卫暗通日本的情况下发布的，完全体现了政治谋略为主、军事进攻为辅的方针，目的在于从政治上瓦解国民政府。三次近卫声明之中，以第二次近卫声明影响最为巨大而深远。     

Changing preferences towards redistribution: How deliberation shapes welfare attitudes

The article departs from the argument that research on welfare attitudes is, so far, dominated by large‐scale survey‐studies, which allow for generalizable insights into citizens' preferences and evaluations, but are necessarily limited in their ability to capture the dynamic and contextual aspects of attitude formation. In order to broaden the horizon of welfare attitudes' research, this article introduces a new qualitative method, namely deliberative forums. In these large group discussions—originally developed for participatory decision‐making—attitudes, opinions, and preferences are core aspects of the deliberation process, and the article argues that by observing deliberation, we can observe attitude construction “in vivo ”. The evidence from a two‐day German deliberation event illustrates in an exploratory manner how information, reasoning, and group processes can influence people's evaluations and expressed policy preferences with regard to redistribution. By linking participants' answers from a survey before and after the event to their statements during the discussions, the article not only shows that the preferences for redistribution people expressed in the survey answers are often higher after the deliberative event, but also seeks to make sense of attitudinal dynamics on the basis of the qualitative material by pointing towards the role of information, reasoning, and group processes.     

What Policies Advance Infants and Toddlers? Evidence to Inform State and Federal Options

A variety of civic actors—government, associations, and local agencies—work to help parents advance the vitality of our youngest children. Empirical findings accumulating over the past half-century identify benefits for infants and toddlers stemming from three policy models: paid leave for parents after a newborn arrives; regular pediatric assessments, including home visiting; and quality caregivers situated in homes or centers. We review what is known about the effects of these policies, along with constituent elements of quality (mediators) that operate proximal to children's health, cognitive, and emotional growth. Much has been learned about how such collective action, carried out by local organizations, advance infant–toddler development. Methodological advances foster new knowledge: moving closer to causal inferences and pinpointing social mechanisms that enrich infant–toddler settings. Less well understood is how policy levers can move the malleable elements of program quality to raise the magnitude or sustainability of program effects. We note the benefits of income-support efforts for fragile families, while urging new work on how economic dynamics touch the capacity of parents and caregivers to better nurture infants and toddlers.