基于RS与ANN的上市公司财务困境预测模型的实证研究

本文以中国上市公司作为研究对象,采用粗糙集理论(RS)客观选出预测模型指标体系,以因财务状况异常而被列为特别处理公司(ST公司)作为界定上市公司的财务困境标志,采用人工神经网络(ANN)寻找最佳的利用公开财务数据预测中国上市公司财务困境的模型。我们的研究结果表明,总资产报酬率等18个包括现金流量类指标的财务指标有较强的区分财务困境公司和财务健康公司的能力;行业类型和资产规模对于上市公司财务困境预测具有至关重要的作用;运用ANN建立的神经网络模型有较强和较稳定的预测能力。     

CEO health

Using comprehensive data on 28 cohorts in Sweden, we analyze CEO health and its determinants and outcomes. We find CEOs are in much better health than the population and on par with other high-skill professionals. These results apply in particular to mental health and to CEOs of larger companies. We explore three mechanisms that can account for CEOs’ robust health. First, we find health predicts appointment to a CEO position. Second, the CEO position has no discernible impact on the health of its holder. Third, poor health is associated with greater CEO turnover. Here, both contemporaneous health and health at the time of appointment matter. Poor CEO health also predicts poor firm outcomes. We find a statistically significant association between mental health and corporate performance for smaller-firm CEOs, for whom a one standard deviation deterioration in mental health translates into a performance reduction of 6% relative to the mean.     

Modeling the Risks of Nonindigenous Species Introductions Using a Patch-Dynamics Approach Incorporating Contaminant Effects as a Disturbance

The establishment and spread of invasive or nonindigenous species has caused concern from stakeholders in affected areas, and has prompted many field and modeling studies. We used stochastic two species, circular three patch dynamic models to investigate the patterns of invasion and impacts upon the affected species. Both persistent and degradable toxicants were incorporated as parts of the model system to act as disturbance regimens. There is a clear series of patterns that result from these simulations. Competition increases population variability, but decreases the number of distinct outcomes possible from the same initial conditions. Isolation of the patch of the introduction was the main determinant of successful establishment through a process we call the beachhead effect. Coexistence of species was often possible in local patches, contrary to the analytical solutions of Lotka-Volterra equations and numerous modeling studies. Contaminants and their resultant disturbances are important as contributors to the stochastic nature of models. The stochasticity leads to a variety of outcomes from some sets of initial conditions. Different outcomes have different probabilities of occurrence and are dependent upon the specific initial conditions of the simulation. A clear pattern that is apparent is the "beachhead effect," where the invasive establishes a population within a relatively remote patch before migrating to the remainder of the landscape. We make predictions and provide specific research hypotheses as to the causes and effects of invasive species establishment, spread, and impacts.     

Predicting Future Excess Events in Risk Assessment

Risk characterization in a study population relies on cases of disease or death that are causally related to the exposure under study. The number of such cases, so-called "excess" cases, is not just an indicator of the impact of the risk factor in the study population, but also an important determinant of statistical power for assessing aspects of risk such as age-time trends and susceptible subgroups. In determining how large a population to study and/or how long to follow a study population to accumulate sufficient excess cases, it is necessary to predict future risk. In this study, focusing on models involving excess risk with possible effect modification, we describe a method for predicting the expected magnitude of numbers of excess cases and assess the uncertainty in those predictions. We do this by extending Bayesian APC models for rate projection to include exposure-related excess risk with possible effect modification by, e.g., age at exposure and attained age. The method is illustrated using the follow-up study of Japanese Atomic-Bomb Survivors, one of the primary bases for determining long-term health effects of radiation exposure and assessment of risk for radiation protection purposes. Using models selected by a predictive-performance measure obtained on test data reserved for cross-validation, we project excess counts due to radiation exposure and lifetime risk measures (risk of exposure-induced deaths (REID) and loss of life expectancy (LLE)) associated with cancer and noncancer disease deaths in the A-Bomb survivor cohort.     

Competing statistical methods for the fitting of normal species sensitivity distributions: recommendations for practitioners

A species sensitivity distribution (SSD) models data on toxicity of a specific toxicant to species in a defined assemblage. SSDs are typically assumed to be parametric, despite noteworthy criticism, with a standard proposal being the log-normal distribution. Recently, and confusingly, there have emerged different statistical methods in the ecotoxicological risk assessment literature, independent of the distributional assumption, for fitting SSDs to toxicity data with the overall aim of estimating the concentration of the toxicant that is hazardous to % of the biological assemblage (usually with small). We analyze two such estimators derived from simple linear regression applied to the ordered log-transformed toxicity data values and probit transformed rank-based plotting positions. These are compared to the more intuitive and statistically defensible confidence limit-based estimator. We conclude based on a large-scale simulation study that the latter estimator should be used in typical assessments where a pointwise value of the hazardous concentration is required.     

The contribution of the psychosocial work environment to sickness absence in human service workers: Results of a 3-year follow-up study

We investigated to what extent psychosocial work characteristics predict sickness absence in a cohort of 890 human service professionals (84% women), followed-up for 3 years. We measured 16 different psychosocial work characteristics at baseline and analysed their associations with number of sickness absence days at follow-up using multivariate Poisson regression. In addition, we computed a psychosocial work environment index, summarizing eight psychosocial scales. Participants with exposure to violence and threats, high emotional demands, high demands for hiding emotions, low influence at work, low meaning of work, low quality of management, and role conflicts had an increased number of sickness absence days at follow-up, after adjustment for numerous confounders. Adjusting for sickness absence history caused little change in most effect estimates. Scoring in the most adverse quartile of the psychosocial work environment index was associated with a 71% increase in sickness absence days. Improving the psychosocial work environment index and eliminating exposure to violence and threats would have prevented 32% of all sickness absence days in the study population. In particular we found that exposure to violence was a strong predictor of absence. This study shows that a wide range of psychosocial work characteristics contribute to sickness absence in human service workers. Improving the psychosocial work environment might help to reduce sickness absence in this population.     

Too Big to Learn: The Effects of Major Acquisition Failures on Subsequent Acquisition Divestment

We examine whether firms learn from their major acquisition failures. Drawing from a threat‐rigidity theoretical framework, we suggest that firms do not learn from their major acquisition failures. Furthermore, we hypothesize that host‐country experience reinforces the negative effects of major acquisition failures. Our research hypotheses are tested using an event history analysis of 741 acquisitions undertaken by French listed and non‐listed firms in the USA between January 1988 and December 2008. We use failure divestment (divestment resulting from acquisition failure) as a proxy for acquisition performance. Consistent with our theoretical framework, we find that major acquisition failures have a negative impact on future acquisition performance. Furthermore, we find that such negative effects are reinforced by firms’ host‐country experience.     

The contribution of the psychosocial work environment to sickness absence in human service workers: Results of a 3-year follow-up study

Abstract

We investigated to what extent psychosocial work characteristics predict sickness absence in a cohort of 890 human service professionals (84% women), followed-up for 3 years. We measured 16 different psychosocial work characteristics at baseline and analysed their associations with number of sickness absence days at follow-up using multivariate Poisson regression. In addition, we computed a psychosocial work environment index, summarizing eight psychosocial scales. Participants with exposure to violence and threats, high emotional demands, high demands for hiding emotions, low influence at work, low meaning of work, low quality of management, and role conflicts had an increased number of sickness absence days at follow-up, after adjustment for numerous confounders. Adjusting for sickness absence history caused little change in most effect estimates. Scoring in the most adverse quartile of the psychosocial work environment index was associated with a 71% increase in sickness absence days. Improving the psychosocial work environment index and eliminating exposure to violence and threats would have prevented 32% of all sickness absence days in the study population. In particular we found that exposure to violence was a strong predictor of absence. This study shows that a wide range of psychosocial work characteristics contribute to sickness absence in human service workers. Improving the psychosocial work environment might help to reduce sickness absence in this population.     

A Simple Formula for Calculating the "Mass Density" of a Lognormally Distributed Characteristic: Applications to Risk Analysis

Statements such as "80% of the employees do 20% of the work" or "the richest 1% of society controls 10% of its assets" are commonly used to describe the distribution or concentration of a variable characteristic within a population. Analogous statements can be constructed to reflect the relationship between probability and concentration for unvarying quantities surrounded by uncertainty. Both kinds of statements represent specific usages of a general relationship, the "mass density function," that is not widely exploited in risk analysis and management. This paper derives a simple formula for the mass density function when the uncertainty and/or the variability in a quantity is lognormally distributed; the formula gives the risk analyst an exact, "back-of-the-envelope" method for determining the fraction of the total amount of a quantity contained within any portion of its distribution. For example, if exposures to a toxicant are lognormally distributed with σ_{in x}= 2, 50% of all the exposure is borne by the 2.3% of persons most heavily exposed. Implications of this formula for various issues in risk assessment are explored, including: (1) the marginal benefits of risk reduction; (2) distributional equity and risk perception; (3) accurate confidence intervals for the population mean when a limited set of data is available; (4) the possible biases introduced by the uncritical assumption that extreme "outliers" exist; and (5) the calculation of the value of new information.     

Estimating Health Risks from Natural Hazards Using Risk Assessment and Epidemiology

Risk assessment is the process of estimating the likelihood that an adverse effect may result from exposure to a specific health hazard. The process traditionally involves hazard identification, dose-response assessment, exposure assessment, and risk characterization to answer “How many excess cases of disease A will occur in a population of size B due to exposure to agent C at dose level D?” For natural hazards, however, we modify the risk assessment paradigm to answer “How many excess cases of outcome Y will occur in a population of size B due to natural hazard event E of severity D?” Using a modified version involving hazard identification, risk factor characterization, exposure characterization, and risk characterization, we demonstrate that epidemiologic modeling and measures of risk can quantify the risks from natural hazard events. We further extend the paradigm to address mitigation, the equivalent of risk management, to answer “What is the risk for outcome Y in the presence of prevention intervention X relative to the risk for Y in the absence of X?” We use the preventable fraction to estimate the efficacy of mitigation, or reduction in adverse health outcomes as a result of a prevention strategy under ideal circumstances, and further estimate the effectiveness of mitigation, or reduction in adverse health outcomes under typical community-based settings. By relating socioeconomic costs of mitigation to measures of risk, we illustrate that prevention effectiveness is useful for developing cost-effective risk management options.     

Target Reputation and Appropriability: Picking and Deploying Resources in Acquisitions

This study explores sources of acquirer satisfaction and achievement of strategic objectives following acquisitions. We develop two sets of factors based on picking and deploying target resources that we expect will affect these outcomes, and consider how the two interact. We find that target reputation is consistently related to desirable acquisition outcomes. In particular, product quality and financial reputation positively affect satisfaction; product quality is a strong predictor of achieving market-based objectives; and management and product reputation facilitate learning. Retaining top management after the transaction is also positively related to satisfaction. We support and extend the theory of relative standing—target executives are retained to a greater degree when management reputation is strong, and this leads to better outcomes for acquirers. Other deployment effects vary depending on the outcome and the strength of the acquired resource.     

The influence of corporate governance on changes in risk following the global financial crisis: evidence from the Portuguese stock market

This paper examines the influence of corporate governance characteristics on changes in total, market and idiosyncratic risk in the Portuguese capital market following the collapse of Lehman Brothers. We aim to address corporate practices, while determining if corporate governance characteristics can help predict future variations of the risk associated with a certain security and, in this sense, if these characteristics may be used to help monitor or forecast risk of an existing portfolio of securities over time. We find positive and significant changes in total and idiosyncratic risk for non-financial firms listed on Euronext Lisbon, consistent with increases in investor uncertainty during the crisis period. Our results suggest that changes in risk measures over a shorter-term and a longer-term period vary with governance characteristics. The capital market rewarded companies with a greater proportion of non-executive directors and directors that exercise (on average) management roles in more companies or institutions. On the other hand, the capital market punished companies with a greater proportion of independent directors and greater ownership concentration.     

Modeling Exposure to Air Pollution from the WTC Disaster Based on Reports of Perceived Air Pollution

We examined the utility of a newly developed perceived air pollution (PAP) scale and of a modeled air pollution (MAP) scale derived from it for predicting previously observed birth outcomes of pregnant women enrolled following September 11, 2001. Women reported their home and work locations in the four weeks after September 11, 2001 and the PAP at each site on a four-point scale designed for this purpose. Locations were geocoded and their distance from the World Trade Center (WTC) site determined. PAP values were used to develop a model of air pollution for a 20-mile radius from the WTC site. MAP values were assigned to each geocoded location. We examined the relationship of PAP and MAP values to maternal characteristics and to distance of home and work sites from the WTC site. Both PAP and MAP values were highly correlated with distance from the WTC. Maternal characteristics that were associated with PAP values reported for home or work sites (race, demoralization, material hardship, first trimester on September 11) were not associated with modeled MAP values. Relationships of several birth outcomes to proximity to the WTC, which we previously reported using this data set, were also seen when MAP values were used as the measure of exposure, instead of proximity. MAP developed from reports of PAP may be useful to identify high-risk areas and predict health outcomes when there are multiple sources of pollution and a "distance from source" analysis is impossible.     

国有股减持中的代理冲突、股权价值与路径依赖

本文认为国有股减持中政府、公众投资者和承销商等利益相关者之间没有形成“多赢”的局面 ,实际上是国有股减持涉及的代理关系中相关各方之间利益冲突的表现。其根源在于公众投资者在现行上市公司股权结构和治理结构中对股权价值的低水平预期。由于国有股东不会轻易放弃其私有收益 ,使得国有股减持中存在着路径依赖 ,所以 ,在现行的减持方案下国有股出售受阻 ,就谈不上国有股减持有改善上市公司治理结构和提高证券市场功能效率的意义。要达到现行《减持办法》中确定的国有股减持目标 ,必须在政府与公众投资者之间实现激励相容。这实际上是要政府“让利”于投资者 ,打破目前的股权结构、治理结构和相关法律法规的路径依赖 ,从证券市场功能完善、健康发展以及由之实现的国民经济战略调整中获得更多的收益。     

Off to Plan or Out to Lunch? Relationships between Design Characteristics and Outcomes of Strategy Workshops

Strategy workshops, also known as away days, strategy retreats and strategic ‘off‐sites’, have become widespread in organizations. However, there is a shortage of theory and evidence concerning the outcomes of these events and the factors that contribute to their effectiveness. Adopting a design science approach, in this paper we propose and test a multidimensional model that differentiates the effects of strategy workshops in terms of organizational, interpersonal and cognitive outcomes. Analysing survey data on over 650 workshops, we demonstrate that varying combinations of four basic design characteristics – clarity of goals and purpose, routinization, stakeholder involvement and cognitive effort – predict differentially these three distinct types of outcomes. Calling into question conventional wisdom on the design of workshops, we discuss the implications of our findings for integrating further the strategy process, strategy‐as‐practice and strategic cognition literatures, to enrich understanding of the factors that shape the nature and influence of contemporary strategic planning activities more generally.     

A taxonomy of event-level dimensions: Implications for understanding leadership processes,behavior, and performance

Leader actions and their impact on follower, group, and organizational outcomes tend to be investigated at the aggregate person level, which may result in confusion between perception and performance-based evaluations of effectiveness. We advocate an alternative approach: assessing the link of leader behaviors to outcomes at the lower level of events, where adaptive leader responses and their variable influence on subsequent outcomes can be better assessed. To illustrate the potential benefits of an event-level approach, we first define events and how they differ by developing a taxonomy consisting of seven event dimensions. Important leadership implications of each event dimension are briefly discussed. We then apply our taxonomy to three existing theories of leadership to highlight its value in understanding performance. Strategies for measuring and researching leadership performance with our taxonomy are then introduced and discussed. Finally, event dimensions are used to address questions of critical significance to future leadership theory, such as determining what type of leadership is needed and ascertaining the leadership skills that are most likely to result in effective performance.     

DOES INFLATION TARGETING ANCHOR LONG‐RUN INFLATION EXPECTATIONS? EVIDENCE FROM THE U.S., UK,AND SWEDEN4

We investigate the extent to which inflation expectations have been more firmly anchored in the United Kingdom–‐a country with an explicit inflation target–‐than in the United States–‐a country with no such target–‐using the difference between far‐ahead forward rates on nominal and inflation‐indexed bonds as a measure of compensation for expected inflation and inflation risk at long horizons. We show that far‐ahead forward inflation compensation in the U.S. exhibits substantial volatility, especially at low frequencies, and displays a highly significant degree of sensitivity to economic news. Similar patterns are evident in the UK prior to 1997, when the Bank of England was not independent, but have been strikingly absent since the Bank of England gained independence in 1997. Our findings are further supported by comparisons of dispersion in longer‐run inflation expectations of professional forecasters and by evidence from Sweden, another inflation‐targeting country with a relatively long history of inflation‐indexed bonds. Our results support the view that an explicit and credible inflation target helps to anchor the private sector's views regarding the distribution of long‐run inflation outcomes. (JEL: E31, E52, E58)     

6. Racioethnicity and job performance: A review and critique of theoretical perspectives on the causes of group differences

Workforce equality has been an important organizational and societal goal for many years, and a number of strategies for achieving it have been recommended and used. Yet, differences in job performance and important job outcomes such as promotion, advancement, and compensation still exist among racioethnic groups. This situation is important for OB researchers to address. What do we know about the causes of these differences? The purpose of this paper is to review the literature on racioethnic group differences in performance and related outcomes, and the models used to explain group differences. We find that four models are used as explanatory frameworks for exploring group differences: the Internal Trait model, Bias and Discrimination model, Response to Discrimination model, and the Organizational Context model. We examine these models and summarize the evidence for each. Based on the review, implications of the models for future research and for the reduction of group differences are discussed.     

Why RDAs and ULs Are Incompatible Standards in the U‐Shape Micronutrient Model: A Philosophically Orientated Analysis of Micronutrients' Standardizations

Risk assessments of micronutrients are carried out in the customary deficiency‐excess model. It is regarded as straightforward and unambiguous. Nevertheless, it is a problematic amalgamation of two different and to a certain extent contrasting perspectives on risk and science that we will criticize in this contribution. Our critique is framed in a conceptual scheme of opposing perspectives highlighted by the rival characteristics of RDAs and SULs and the role of science therein. The one part of our scheme holds the typically modern approach that centers on risks that can be scientifically assessed more or less confidently. Subsequent policies are aimed at preventing major health problems that affect the majority of the population from early on in life. The RDAs are the ideal type‐case here. The other part of our scheme holds a much more postmodern approach in which health risks are explicitly recognized as “uncertain.” Dealing with those risks has little to do with major health problems from early on in life. Here, we encounter the scientific quandary of disentangling complex factors and impacts that may relate to some extra quality of life later on in life. SULs are exemplarily thereof. We will show that RDAs originally spawned from the scientific aim of securing objective knowledge “to lay down the requirements of an adequate” diet. SULs, conversely, are the upshot of generating acceptable outcomes driven by ever‐increasing safety requirements. This shift from securing objective knowledge to generating acceptable outcomes will be addressed in relation to precautionary culture.     

A person-centered perspective in assessing career adaptability: Potential profiles,outcomes, and antecedents

This study explored the career adaptability profiles and corresponding characteristics with a person-centered method as well as the correlation between career adaptability and various antecedents such as supervisor feedback setting and person-organization (P–O) fit, and outcomes such as psychological safety and self-efficacy. We employed a convenience sampling technique to invite more than 1000 employees from five provinces in China in 2 studies. There are 535 valid questionnaires in Study 1 and 377 valid questionnaires in Study 2. We performed latent profile analysis (LPA) using Mplus 7.31. For the antecedents, we ran the three-step estimation (R3STEP) command. In terms of outcomes, Binary Coded Hexadecimal (BCH) analysis was conducted. LPA identified four career adaptability profiles, namely, optimal, high, moderate, and low career adaptability. The four different profiles varied in the level, but not the shape. These profiles were predicted by antecedents of supervisor feedback environment and P–O fit, and these profiles impacted psychological safety and self-efficacy. We used a new approach to better understand career adaptability under the framework of career construction theory. A person-centered method, compared with a variable-centered approach, can elucidate the interactions among four dimensions of career adaptability in an employee. Thus, we demonstrated that (1) various career adaptability profiles at work generally do not consistently occur, and (2) latent profiles can distinguish antecedents from outcomes.