Partisan Cross‐Pressure and Voter Turnout: The Influence of Micro and Macro Environments*

Objectives. This article explores the impact of the partisan homogeneity/heterogeneity of a variety of group environments on patterns of voter turnout for recent presidential elections in Erie County, New York. Methods. Using multilevel methods (HLM) with data drawn from voter registration files and Census sources, we simultaneously estimate the independent and joint effects on turnout of a variety of the nested contexts inhabited by individuals. Results. Our analysis uncovers strong evidence that politically homogeneous households reinforce participatory behaviors, but that this effect is also conditioned by the partisan complexion of their district environment. Conclusions. We also demonstrate that contextual influences from both households and neighborhoods are stronger for members of the partisan minority.     

Political Cynicism and the Mobilization of Black Voters*

Objective. This article analyzes National Election Study data from the 1996 and 2000 elections in order to explain the increased turnout among blacks in recent presidential elections. Methods. A bivariate analysis of registration and voter turnout across the races is conducted, followed by three probit models of voter turnout, including various demographic and attitudinal variables. Results. Our findings show that more blacks were registered to vote, and more registered blacks actually voted in 2000 than in 1996. We also found that political cynicism, or distrust, appears to increase the propensity of blacks to vote, in direct contrast to the behavior of white respondents. Inefficacy has less effect on black turnout, although it depresses turnout among whites. Conclusions. These findings underscore an important difference between racial groups with regard to the effect of attitudinal factors on voter turnout. Political cynicism can serve to mobilize blacks, while feelings of internal and external inefficacy had little effect on black turnout in these elections.     

Voting by Mail: Turnout and Institutional Reform in Oregon*

Objectives. I test the impact of Oregon's vote‐by‐mail system on voter turnout. Methods. To determine the impact, I create a cross‐sectional time‐series regression model of state turnout in presidential elections from 1980 to 2004 and mid‐term elections from 1982 to 2006. Results. I find that Oregon's turnout increases by around 10 percentage points of registered voters in both presidential and mid‐term elections due to the voting‐by‐mail reform. Conclusions. These results suggest that one of the reasons that the United States has comparatively lower turnout is due to its more onerous voting procedures.     

State Income Inequality and Presidential Election Turnout and Outcomes*

Objective. This study examines the links among income inequality, voter turnout, and electoral choice at the state level in recent presidential elections. Methods. We introduce two new state‐level ecological data sets, estimated annual Gini coefficients of income inequality from 1969 to 2004 and a measure of income segregation across Census tracts within states in 1999. We test for associations among inequality, turnout, and party preference with cross‐sectional, fixed‐effects, and multilevel analyses. Results. The cross‐sectional effect of inequality on voter turnout and electoral choice is ambiguous. However, a fixed‐effects analysis links higher income inequality to lower voter turnout and also to a stronger Democratic vote. Multilevel results indicate that higher levels of economic segregation likewise are associated with depressed turnout, after controlling for individual voter characteristics and for state‐level income.     

Family Transitions,Economic Status,and Voter Turnout Among African‐American Inner‐City Women*

Objectives. We examine voter turnout of inner‐city African‐American mothers, many of whom are single parents and endure long‐term, economic hardship. Previous research suggests that income is a more important factor among these groups than in the general population. We seek to understand the interplay of family structure, income, and voter turnout. Methods. We explore these ideas using panel data on 754 mothers living in Chicago and interviewed as part of the 1967–1976 Woodlawn Community Study. Results. We find that marital status has no effect when women are younger but over time single parents' turnout falls behind that of married parents. This is primarily due to factors related to income and income change. Conclusions. Single mothers have lower rates of participation and, given the high rates of single parenthood in segregated inner‐city neighborhoods, this substantially diminishes the political voice of the nation's poor, contributing to class bias in the electorate.     

Con Job: An Estimate of Ex‐Felon Voter Turnout Using Document‐Based Data*

Objective. Ex‐felon voter turnout was estimated for the first time using government records rather than statistical models. Statistical models have estimated that 25–35 percent of eligible ex‐felons would vote in federal elections. Methods. Six‐hundred‐sixty recently released ex‐felons in Erie County, NY, who would have been legally eligible to register and vote in 2004 or 2005, were compared with data from the Erie County Board of Elections to determine whether they registered and voted in either 2004 or 2005. Results. Five percent this population of ex‐felons voted in either 2004 or 2005. Conclusions. Single‐digit turnout among ex‐felons raises questions about the assumptions underlying statistical estimates, and it also suggests that elections would have to be very close for ex‐felons to have an impact on the results.     

Legislating morality outside of the legislature: Direct democracy,voter participation and morality politics

Twenty-four states currently use some form of the initiative and referendum in an effort to give Americans the opportunity to make laws directly and vote on proposals given to them by their state legislatures. In one area in particular, morality policy, voters have historically used the ballot box to craft important and often controversial legislation. These have included items concerning gambling, alcohol, abortion, narcotics, obscenity and religion. This research examines two important aspects of the direct democracy issue: does the initiative and referendum increase voter participation in the states giving this option to voters and what is the impact on participation levels when morality issues are considered? For the first question a unique data set is developed to test voter turnout on ballot issues using the state as the unit of analysis. Results of this ordinary-least-squares analysis suggest direct democracy does increase voter turnout rates. In the second part of the analysis, however, several state ballots from 1972 to 2006 are analyzed suggesting that voter interest is strongest when they face morality issues. Hence, ‘legislating morality’ takes on a new meaning here since we commonly associate the phrase only with legislative institutions. As shown, over time citizens have been legislating morality directly in their own unique way. Theoretically, while advocates of direct democracy contend the process increases voter participation, it is argued here that the participation is often skewed toward certain morality issues and not toward issues as a whole. The data support this contention and raise normative questions concerning voters and their propensity to ‘legislate morality’.     

Election Day Registration's Effect on U.S. Voter Turnout

Objective . Early voter registration deadlines make voting more difficult for many American citizens. In an attempt to facilitate voting, several U.S. states now permit registration on election day, at the height of the campaign. This article examines the turnout effects of adopting election day registration (EDR) and other smaller reductions in closing dates. Methods . Primarily using the Current Population Study (1972-1996), we estimate the turnout advantage of EDR for citizens having low, middle, and high socioeconomic status. Results . The elimination of closing dates, through EDR, is predicted to produce about a 7-percentage-point turnout boost in the average state. Those having a high school education and middle incomes are expected to see the largest turnout gains, with the less educated and poorer citizens doing almost as well. No evidence is found to link the implementation of EDR to subsequent changes in the electorate's partisan balance. Conclusions . Even the most dramatic easing of voter registration costs has a modest effect on the total number of voters and little impact on the long-standing skew toward greater representation of those having higher status in the voting electorate of the United States.     

Analysis of the turnout effects of vote by mail elections, 1980–2007

Proponents of vote by mail elections often argue that this type of election facilitates participation such that elevated levels of turnout occur. The research tests this assumption by analyzing 44 statewide elections (1980–2007) in the state of Oregon—the only state that conducts all of its elections by mail. The results of this analysis suggest that the vote by mail format is a major stimulus to voter participation in special elections in Oregon, while its effect on turnout in primary and general elections is positive, but fairly minimal.     

Race,Roll‐Off,and Racial Transition: The Influence of Political Change on Racial Group Voter Roll‐Off in Urban Elections*

Objectives. Many cities in the United States have undergone or are undergoing racial transition from a majority white to a majority black population. Accompanying this is a change in the racial makeup of elections and officeholders. This article seeks to explain racial patterns in voter roll‐off as a city undergoes racial transition. Methods. Using a fixed‐effects regression model, we analyze the level of voter roll‐off (from the top‐of‐the‐ballot mayoral contest) among black and white voters across Memphis City Council elections, from 1967 through 2003. Results. The level of voter roll‐off among racial groups is sensitive to the racial aspect of political change. Black voters are most likely to continue to vote in council contests when there is a racial choice among candidates, when blacks have previously been elected, and when blacks occupy the mayoralty and a majority of council seats. Whites are most likely to vote in racially competitive council contests, as well as when there are a large number of white candidates, and when whites hold a majority of the council seats. Conclusions. In settings such as Memphis, where race has played a pronounced historic role, the racial context of political empowerment has a strong influence on electoral participation. Elections below the top‐of‐the‐ballot become more salient, and political efficacy grows among racial group members when that cohort occupies institutional positions, particularly the majority of positions in a governing institution.     

The roll-off effect in judicial retention elections

Because of the absence of powerful traditional voting cues and the unusual nature and format of uncontested judicial retention elections, a large number of voters deliberately fail to cost ballots in retention elections. Filling a void in the study of retention elections, this study empirically examines the voter roll-off in 1,864 retention elections for major trial court judges for the period 1964–1984. The mean roll-off for these elections was 36.2%. Voter roll-off was found to be positively related to district size and number of counties in a judicial district. These trial court retention elections exhibit mixed relationships for different types of elections. Although in presidential and nonpresidential elections there is clear surge and decline in voter turnout, there is no corresponding surge and decline in roll-off. However, close retention elections have less roll-off than nonclose elections.     

The Long‐Term Effects of Spousal Care Giving on Survivors' Well‐Being in Widowhood*

Objective. Previous research suggests that bereavement and adjustment to widowhood are long term and should be studied as processes rather than as static outcomes. We analyze how spousal care giving affects survivors' depressive symptoms 18 and 48 months into widowhood. Method. We use three waves of data from the Changing Lives of Older Couples (CLOC) Survey and estimate OLS regression equations to determine the long‐term effects of spousal care giving on widow(er)s' well‐being. Results. At 18 months, more burdensome spousal care giving predicted higher levels of depressive symptoms, while greater caregiver stress predicted lower levels. Specific characteristics of the caregiving situation were no longer significant predictors of well‐being 48 months into widowhood, although care giving itself had an ameliorative effect on level of symptoms. Conclusions. The results highlight the dynamic nature of bereavement and suggest that the effects of spousal care and characteristics of the care situation on depressive symptoms during widowhood are not linear over time. We discuss the implications of our findings for the conceptualization of the relationship between care giving and bereavement.     

Institutional and District‐Level Sources of Competition in State Legislative Elections*

Objectives. What are the sources of partisan competition in state legislative elections? Specifically, what impact do institutional features have relative to district‐level conditions on competition between party nominees? Methods. Using data from 30 states in 1994 and 1996, a range of factors are examined to determine their influence on both the likelihood that a race is contested and the degree of competition that results. Results. Multiple regression analyses indicate that a district's characteristics, measured as social and partisan diversity, have a strong and durable influence on elections. Contested elections are more likely and competition levels are higher in districts with heterogeneous populations. Institutional characteristics such as legislative professionalism also have a large influence, although the direction of their impact varies by stage of the electoral process examined. For example, professionalism increases the likelihood that an election is contested, but leads to a lower level of competition between opposing candidates. Conclusions. District‐level conditions have a large influence on competition; however, incentives created by institutional features are also critical for understanding the competitiveness of state legislative elections.     

Economic Determinants of Voting in an Era of Union Decline*

Objective. The objective of this article is to test competing hypotheses regarding union vote effects by economic sector. Overlooked in existing research on political participation and the labor movement is de‐unionization's sectoral dimension: declining union rolls is a private‐sector phenomenon. The sectoral dimension of union decline carries important political consequences if the influence of unions on voter turnout varies by sector. Method. Using Current Population Survey (CPS) November Voting and Registration Supplements for all national elections between 1984 and 2006, I estimate union vote effects for public‐ and private‐sector employees. Results. The results of the analyses reveal that while union members continue to vote at higher rates than otherwise similar nonmembers, the union effect is nearly three times as large for private‐sector members: private‐sector unionists have a predicted probability of voting 6.7 points higher than nonmembers, while public‐sector members have a predicted probability of voting only 2.4 points higher than nonmembers. Conclusions. Given the small fraction of private‐sector workers now in labor unions, recent fluctuations in the unionization rate have little aggregate affect on turnout. Given that private‐sector union members tend to be less educated and earn less than their public‐sector counterparts, the near disappearance of private‐sector unions from the economic landscape removes an important institutional buffer against political inequality in the United States.     

Presidential Election Cycles and the Turn‐of‐the‐Month Effect*

Objective. In this research, the presidential election cycle hypothesis is evaluated within the context of the turn‐of‐the‐month effect found in stock returns. Methods. Returns from the daily Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) index, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) index, and the NASDAQ Composite index are grouped into turn‐of‐the month returns and non‐turn‐of‐the‐month returns. Statistical comparisons are conducted to evaluate the returns based on administration subperiod, temporal subperiod, and party affiliation. Results. The results provide evidence of higher turn‐of‐the‐month returns in the second half of presidential terms. The higher turn‐of‐the‐month returns account for most of the additional returns found in the second half of presidential terms evidenced in prior research. Conclusions. The persistent higher investment returns for stocks found in the second half of presidential terms can be linked to fiscal and administrative policies that increase household liquidity prior to elections. Incumbents attempt to influence voter choice and energize core constituencies by increasing household liquidity prior to elections through fiscal and administrative policies. These actions create higher turn‐of the‐month returns in the second half of presidential terms, which generate additional overall investment returns for the period.     

SHORT‐ AND LONG‐TERM HOMELESSNESS AND ADOLESCENTS' SELF‐ESTEEM,DEPRESSION, LOCUS OF CONTROL AND SOCIAL SUPPORTS

The study investigated the effect of length of homelessness, (less than three months as against six months or longer), on four variables: self‐esteem, depression, locus of control and social supports. Respondents, (50 homeless adolescents, 25 male and 25 female, aged between 16–21), completed four questionnaires. Multivariate Analysis of Variance indicated that a combination of the four variables was dependent on the length of homelessness. The short‐term homeless group reported significantly higher levels of self‐esteem and significantly lower levels of depression compared with the long‐term homeless. Furthermore, the long‐term homeless group scored towards a more external locus of control, as compared with the short‐term homeless. While no significant difference was found between the two groups in the number of social supports, the short‐term homeless group reported significantly greater levels of satisfaction with their supports. We discuss the implications of these findings.     

Fear of the Brown Envelope: Exploring Welfare Reform with Long‐Term Sickness Benefits Recipients

This article presents qualitative data taken from in‐depth interviews with 25 long‐term sickness benefits recipients in the north east of England, UK. A key theme emerging from the research is the importance of listening to the narratives of long‐term sick and disabled benefits recipients, particularly in relation to the formation of policy responses and in terms of practice. The findings also illustrate how stigma associated with claiming benefits can deter people from accessing the support they need, leading to under‐claiming and the risk of amplified financial strain and hardship. Further, the importance of evidence that emerges from research which focuses upon the lived experiences of sickness benefits recipients to provide evidence in the framing of disability and welfare policy is crucial. Lastly, the article discusses how the narratives presented have implications for social policy and practice, alongside the potential implications for sick and disabled people themselves.     

Deepening democracy?: Demarcation,traditional authorities,and municipal elections in South Africa

Since the end of apartheid in South Africa, municipal elections often have been overlooked. Many analysts have discussed the significance of the national elections, but few have analyzed municipal elections. I argue that local elections are important indicators of democratic consolidation and the deepening of democratic procedures in South Africa. This article examines two issues that shaped recent municipal elections: the electoral demarcation process and the role of the traditional leaders. My analysis provides important lessons for democratic consolidation and representation in South Africa. Given the evidence of higher voter turnout and greater institutionalization of the democratic practice at the local level, traditional authorities may serve as a democratizing function in local politics. Moreover, this article suggests that focus on democratic consolidation should not be limited to the national level of politics. And, finally, the results of this study support the view that consolidation should be considered a continuum.     

The Impact of Gentrification on Voter Turnout*

Objective. The goal of this article is to test between two competing theories (mobilization vs. destabilization) about the impact of gentrification on political participation. Methods. Using geographic information systems (GIS) software, Census data from 1990 and 2000, and a voter file for the City of Atlanta, we estimate a multilevel model of voter turnout. Results. Controlling for relevant individual and contextual factors, we find that gentrification decreases turnout among longstanding residents. Conclusions. Our findings provide support for the destabilization hypothesis and suggest that policymakers should develop strategies to soften the negative consequences of gentrification.