江苏省居民个人收入流动性实证分析

利用1989-2009年间CHNS调查数据,对江苏省居民个人的收入流动性进行了经验分析,研究发现:(1)尽管在1997-2000年间居民个人收入流动性略有上升,但是整体上考察期内江苏省居民个人的收入流动性呈现出不断下降且趋于稳定的趋势特征;(2)中间阶层的居民较最穷和最富两个收入阶层具有更高的收入流动性;(3)农村居民个人收入流动性始终大于同时段城镇居民个人收入流动性;(4)1993年以后收入流动性不利于江苏省居民个人收入地位的改善,收入顶层居民的收入地位固定化趋势较为明显,同时江苏省尚未形成一个较为稳定的中等收入阶层.最后,本文指出江苏省应将提高居民收入流动性和培育中等收入阶层作为政策的着力点.     

An application of diagonal reference models and time-varying covariates in social mobility research on mortality and fertility

In social mobility research, the diagonal reference model (DRM) is argued to best isolate the effect of social mobility from origin and destination status effects. In demographic research, standard analyses of the duration until an event occurs rely heavily on the appropriate use of covariates that change over time. We apply these best-practice methods to the study of social mobility and demographic outcomes in Sweden using register data that covers the years 1996–2012. The mortality analysis includes 1,024,142 women and 747,532 men and the fertility analysis includes 191,142 women and 164,368 men. We identify the challenges inherent in this combination and present strategies with an application to how social mobility is related to both fertility and mortality. Our application is successful at incorporating all requirements related to these methods. Our findings suggest, however, that certain data characteristics, such as a relatively high share of missing data, can be problematic. We also find that controlling for origin and destination status generally provides acceptable estimates of the mobility association in the specific case of Sweden and the relationship between social mobility and both fertility and mortality.     

Intergenerational transmission of homeownership in Europe: Revisiting the socialisation hypothesis

Socialisation towards homeownership during childhood has been proposed as one transmission channel of homeownership across generations in previous literature, but tests of this socialisation hypothesis are scarce. This study presents the yet most rigorous test of the socialisation hypothesis using retrospective life-history data (SHARELIFE, N = 19,567 individuals) from 13 European countries. Event history and panel regression models are applied. Results show that socialisation in homeownership positively affects the hazard rates of entering homeownership for the first time and the probability to be a homeowner throughout individuals’ lives net of other parental background variables and material transfers. We find a socialisation effect across divergent (but not all) examined countries. Further sensitivity analyses using a placebo test and a hypothetical confounder support the conclusion that being socialised in homeownership during childhood increases the chances of becoming and being a homeowner in later life.     

Gender differences in the impact of job mobility on earnings: The role of occupational segregation

In recent years, researchers have begun to explore the extent to which the impact of switching firms (inter-firm mobility) on wages varies between men and women. Using data from the NLSY79 from 1979 to 2012, this paper extends existing research by exploring how occupational segregation and individual level factors contribute to gender differences in the impact of voluntary inter-firm mobility on wages. The paper also examines how patterns vary depending on education level. Findings suggest that men without a college education receive greater wage gains from voluntary inter-firm mobility than similarly educated women although there is no overall gender difference for individuals with a bachelor's degree. The wage returns to voluntary inter-firm mobility for both men and women increase as a function of the male representation in the occupation. For individuals without a college education, the male premium to voluntary inter-firm mobility is largest in highly male dominated occupations. However, women with a bachelor's degree employed in highly male dominated occupations use voluntary inter-firm mobility to narrow the gender wage gap.     

Career mobility as a Poisson process: An application to the career dynamics of men and women in the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency from the Civil War to World War II

Poisson process models of upward mobility in job rewards are developed and estimated using event history techniques on data from one organization over a period of 80 years. The models developed permit the inclusion of independent variables which vary over a person's career and are used to analyze differences in the mobility of men and women. The main findings are (1) the career dynamics of men and women are similar in general form, both best described by a segmented, heterogeneous, and nonstationary Poisson process; (2) parametric differences exist between the models for men and women in terms of how certain independent variables affect the rate of arrival of opportunities to move up in the reward hierarchy and in terms of how others affect the rate of being given or taking advantage of such opportunities; and (3) both men and women appear to benefit by being in competition with one another for available opportunities. Theoretical interpretations of these results are discussed in relation to differences in the flow of opportunities to locations in the reward hierarchy occupied predominantly by men versus those occupied predominantly by women.     

Buffering income loss due to unemployment: Family and welfare state influences on income after job loss in the United States and western Germany

This article analyzes how the family and the welfare state influence household income trajectories after job loss in the United States and in western Germany. Drawing on panel data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) and the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP), I study the income buffering effects of the family and the welfare state in the short an in the long run after job loss. I demonstrate that household income trajectories after job loss in the two countries are similar for couple households. However, men in the United States rely relatively more on family resources to overcome income loss, whereas German men’s incomes are secured mostly by the welfare state. Women’s unemployment in both countries is mainly buffered by their partners’ higher earnings. Because single households have no access to family support, they face much higher losses in the United States than in Germany. I also show that the more generous German welfare state triggers less private self-help in the form of increased labor force participation on the part of women when their partners lose their jobs. Over time, the family has become more important in buffering incomes after job loss in the United States which smoothed men’s and roughened women’s income trajectories in couple households. In Germany, worsening re-employment chances increased income losses in the long run after job loss.     

One flag,two rallies: Mechanisms of public opinion in Israel during the 2014 Gaza war

In Israel, public reaction to the 2014 Gaza war included massive support for the military operation and a sharp increase in the popularity of Prime Minister Netanyahu. To understand what caused these “rally-round-the-flag” (RRTF) effects, panel data were collected from a representative sample of the Jewish majority in Israel during and after the war. The article integrate empirical and theoretical arguments from public opinion studies, and from social and political psychology, to contextualize and guide the analysis. The results reveal that perceived threat to collective security produced two simultaneous rally outcomes through distinct processes: First, increased identification with the ethno-national Jewish group led to a rally behind Israel's prime minister. Second, anger toward Hamas and sentiment of national superiority, which was activated by increased ethno-national identification, produced a rally behind the military operation. In addition to explaining its specific empirical case, this study makes three broader contributions. First, it extends the investigation of the RRTF phenomenon in wartime beyond the popularity of the head of the state (the focus of most previous studies) by also examining levels of support for the use of military power. Second, it reveals some of the mechanisms through which distinct elements of popular nationalism mediate the relationship between war events and heterogeneous rally effects. Third, this study shows that the mechanisms that have been detected in studies of individual attitudes and behavior in small groups under conditions of perceived threat or competition can help explain the behavior of these individuals as members of larger, imagined national communities during war.     

Individual variations in crime-related decisions

Sociological models of individual deterrence have generally assumed that there is a single decision-making strategy related to criminal behavior that may be mediated by certain social contexts. In this paper we argue that this process is also conditional on the psychological characteristics of the individual. Based on a panel study of early adolescence, evidence is presented that the effects of the severity of punishment and the perceptions of the moral “wrongness” of an act are contingent on the self-esteem of the individual. A method is proposed that enables a researcher to examine sources of individual variation within traditional, nonexperimental survey data sets.     

Nonlinear models of distribution of talking in small groups

This paper develops a mathematical model of the distribution over time of talking in discussion groups. Researchers of small group processes and social inequality have long recognized that interaction in small discussion groups is usually not equally distributed and that being a person who talks more than others is associated with having higher status outside the group and greater prestige and influence within the group. There is also a history of mathematical approaches to describing this phenomenon. As an addition to this literature, here a nonlinear dynamical system model is presented and used to develop computer simulations that are compared with data from a laboratory study of real four-person discussion groups. The model is based on theoretical assumptions about group processes including individual differences in volubility, status generalization, deference hierarchies and norms of taking turns and of fairness. While none of these alone make predictions that match the data, when they are all combined simulations are produced that closely match the data in both changes over time and differentiation among members. The dynamical system using the parameters as estimated for these data reaches a fixed point, which may help understand how groups structures become stable under some conditions but not others.     

The adolescent family environment and cohabitation across the transition to adulthood

This study draws upon a sample of men and women from Waves I and IV of Add Health to examine the linkages between the adolescent family environment and cohabitation behavior across the transition to adulthood. Using event history modeling the current paper considers the association between a variety of family factors and both the timing of first cohabiting unions and their outcomes (marriage, break up, still cohabiting). This paper also considers whether the impact of predictors for cohabitation timing and outcomes varies depending on the age of individuals. Results indicate that exposure during adolescence to family instability, parental cohabitation, lower parental SES, and low family belonging were associated with an elevated likelihood of entering into cohabiting unions, but primarily during adolescence and early adulthood. Family factors, including family belonging and parental relationship history, were also associated with the outcomes of first cohabitations.     

Individual threat, group threat, and racial policy: Exploring the relationship between threat and racial attitudes

Racial threat scholars have long argued that racial prejudice is motivated by threat. This literature identifies two types of threat: individual threat and group threat; however, actual arguments tend to focus on only one of the two types of threat. Consequently, there has been no assessment of whether both threats are simultaneously associated with prejudice. This paper uses data from the 1994 General Social Survey (GSS) to examine the relationship between perceptions of individual threat, perceptions of group threat, and opposition to policies aiding blacks. Results from multinomial logits demonstrate that both threats are associated with opposition to race-equalizing policies, suggesting that single-threat theories should be reevaluated and that studies incorporating racial threat should include both types of threat.     

The psychological impact of intragenerational social class mobility

This study revisits and extends a classic question in sociology and tests three competing hypotheses about the effects of intragenerational social class mobility on distress and psychological well-being at midlife. Prior research on this topic investigated the effects of intergenerational mobility, but did not look at how mobility during adulthood (intragenerational mobility) affects psychological distress and well-being. Previous literature is also limited by methodological problems that make it difficult to estimate the separate effects of prior social class, current social class, and social mobility. This study overcomes this methodological problem using a novel approach that breaks the linear dependence between prior class, current class, and intragenerational mobility. After accounting for prior and current class, I find that social mobility is not associated with psychological distress and self-acceptance. Instead, mobile individuals come to resemble their nonmobile counterparts in their current class on the outcomes of study.     

《白乌鸦》：孤岛精神图景

《白乌鸦》将一批孤独的、偶在的个体放逐到涎水沟这样一个“孤岛”上,与世隔绝的涎水沟便成为各色人性集中上演的舞台,它浓缩着历史与人性、个体与社会、政治与人生、原始与进步的纠葛。     

Political democracy,economic liberalization,and macro-sociological models of intergenerational mobility

Building on the previously investigated macro-sociological models which analyze the consequences of economic development, income inequality, and international migration on social mobility, this article studies the specific contextual covariates of intergenerational reproduction of occupational status in post-communist societies. It is theorized that social mobility is higher in societies with democratic political regimes and less liberalized economies. The outlined hypotheses are tested by using micro- and macro-level datasets for 21 post-communist societies which are fitted into multilevel mixed-effects linear regressions. The derived findings suggest that factors specific to transition societies, conventional macro-level variables, and the legacy of the Soviet Union explain variation in intergenerational social mobility, but the results vary depending which birth cohorts survey participants belong to and whether or not they stem from advantaged or disadvantaged social origins. These findings are robust to various alternative data, sample, and method specifications.     

New strategies for biosample collection in population-based social research

This paper aims to increase understanding of the methodological issues involved in adding biomeasures to social research by investigating the potential of an event-triggered, self-collection technique for monitoring biological response to social events. We use data from the Relationship Dynamics and Social Life (RDSL) study, which collected saliva samples triggered by a life event important to the aims of the study – the end of a romantic relationship. Our investigation found little evidence that those who complied in the biosample collection were different from those who did not comply in terms of key study measures and sociodemographic characteristics. We also found no evidence that the biosample collection had adverse consequences for subsequent panel participation. We did find that prior cooperation in the study was an important predictor of biosample cooperation, which is important information in developing biosample collection strategies. As demand for biological samples directly linked to social data continues to grow, effective low-cost collection methods will become increasingly valuable. The evidence here indicates that self-collected biosamples may offer tremendous potential to meet this demand.     

The myth of the glass ceiling: Evidence from a stock-flow analysis of authority attainment

It is apparent to even a casual observer of American society that women and minorities are underrepresented among managers, especially among top-level executives. Past studies, however, have failed to find a consistent pattern of female and minority disadvantages in actual promotions and hiring decisions to account for this underrepresentation. This study aims to resolve this incongruity. Drawing on panel data from a nationally representative sample of scientists and engineers, I analyzed transitions across authority levels for men and women of three broad racial groups: whites, Asian Americans, and underrepresented minorities. There are two main findings. First, downward mobility plays an important role in authority inequality, especially for Asian men and underrepresented minority men and women. Second, while women and minorities face lower rates of upward mobility than white men, their disadvantages are concentrated in the bottom to middle-level transitions. This pattern is inconsistent with the popular notion of a “glass ceiling,” which implies that women and minorities encounter an unbreakable obstacle in accessing top positions after they have made their way into mid-level management.     

Enduring an Economic Crisis: The Effect of Macroeconomic Shocks on Intragenerational Mobility in Japan

After the burst of its "bubble" economy in 1989, Japan experienced an astonishingly long economic recession whose gravity surpassed any seen in the industrialized world since the 1930s. While this recession is likely to have important consequences on the well-known workplace arrangements and career mobility patterns in that country, systematic analyses of such consequences are nearly absent. This study examines changes in the rates and directions of job mobility in Japan using work history data collected in 2005 from a nationally representative sample of men and women. I find evidence that Japanese firms have largely retained the core elements of the permanent employment system. The norm that stresses men's loyalty to their employers, however, appears to have weakened, resulting in higher voluntary job turnover among male workers. In addition, the gender gap in lifetime mobility processes has narrowed, but not because Japanese women have gained opportunities in the workplace. Rather, economic stagnation has led to greater fluctuations in employment and wages over men's life course, thereby closing the gender gap. Beyond illustrating the changing stratification process in Japan, the findings have general implications for understanding how economic crises impact employment relations, institutional transformations, and social change in advanced industrialized countries.     

Small groups,contexts, and civic engagement: A multilevel analysis of United States Congregational Life Survey data

Prior research suggests that church-goers are more civically engaged than their non-church-going counterparts. Little is known, however, about how the popular phenomenon of small groups factors into this equation. In the present study, we examine relationships between small group participation at individual and congregation levels and civic engagement. Using multilevel modeling and national data on congregations and individuals from the U.S. Congregational Life Study (n = 82,044), we find that: (1) individual-level small group involvement is associated with four measures of civic engagement; (2) congregation-level small group participation is associated with both lower and higher civic engagement in the case of two outcomes; and (3) in the case of three civic outcomes, congregation-level small group participation moderates individual-level small group involvement such that small group members’ civic activity more closely resembles the lower civic engagement of small group nonparticipants. In the case of one civic outcome, at high levels of overall small group participation, small group members’ civic engagement drops below that of small group nonparticipants. Explanations for these findings, including a “crowding out” effect, are examined including their complex implications for debates regarding small groups, religious involvement, and civic engagement.     

Occupational status benefits of studying abroad and the role of occupational specificity – A propensity score matching approach

Occupational status benefits of student mobility remain uncertain, despite increasing interest in the implications of international student mobility for the reproduction of societal inequality. Since mobile young people are a selective group in terms of socio-economic and achievement-oriented factors, we apply propensity score techniques to test whether German higher education graduates who did or did not study abroad differ in occupational status (based on the Socio-Economic Index of Occupational Status) three years after graduation. Analyses are based on multi-cohort representative data of the German population (Working and Learning in a Changing World). Results confirm a positively biased effect of mobility on early career occupational status driven by compositional differences. Subgroup analyses show that even when accounting for this bias, occupational status returns to mobility are positive for those graduating in occupationally unspecific fields of study. There are no returns for those graduating in occupationally specific fields of study. Findings also suggest that the effect of studying abroad is not homogeneous across the study population. Individuals less likely to study abroad are at the same time more likely to reap the occupational benefits from this experience.     

历史的“五四”与文学史的“五四”

历史的神话往往是被历史的书写者有意或无意缔造的,人们一旦接受了神话化的历史,便不再对神话以外的书写感兴趣,对已浮出水面的新鲜史料也视而不见.被许许多多部文学史约定俗成书写出来的"五四",并不一定就是历史的"五四".历史呈现出的多元复杂相貌的"五四",也许因为书写者习用非第一手资料,甚或因为意识形态化的缘故,在文学史中编排成了单色调的统一面孔.几乎任何一部文学史书写出来的"五四",都是出自同一模具的产物,近乎千部一面.尽管时至五四运动九十周年,但有关"五四"诸多历史的细枝末节仍被文学史遮蔽了,与之相关的许多人与事和因果的逻辑关系常常呈现出史料不足的简单,学术结论也往往显出缺乏实证的草率甚至武断.我们对真正读懂"五四"还有不小的距离.