建立可持续发展统计学的构想

可持续发展是人类发展的必由之路,建立健全可持续发展统计是21世纪发展战略的客观需要。李成瑞的这篇文章从统计学发展角度,对可持续发展统计的基础理论提出了个人见解,具有极高的参考和研究价值。     

可持续发展的企业统计指标体系

可持续发展的企业统计指标体系徐云庆１９９２年联合国环境与发展大会制定并通过的《２１世纪议程》，揭开了人类社会发展的崭新模式，这就是可持续发展战略。我国于１９９４年率先定了《中国２１世纪议程——中国２１世纪人口、环境与发展白皮书》，并将可持续发展纳入“...     

建立上海市中心城区可持续发展指标体系的基本思路

一、建立中心城区指标体系的必要性可持续发展战略是人类在重新审视自己的发展轨迹后而提出的一种全新的发展思路和发展战略,继全球“21世纪议程”以后,许多国家和政府都纷纷出台本国的“21世纪议程”.为了使新的发展道路得以度量,目前,有关国际组织和各国都正加紧编制可持续发展指标体系.但是,由于可持续发展指标体系将是多学科     

可持续发展指标的探讨

人类进入21世纪,实施可持续发展战略已成为世界各国共同选择的道路.可持续发展的定义是“既满足当代人的需要,又不损害子孙后代满足其需求能力的发展”.我国根据全球可持续发展的战略框架文件《21世纪议程》,率先制定《中国21世纪议程》.党的十五大再次重申将可持续发展作为国家发展战略,由此可见,可持续发展在中国已不仅仅是个理论话题,而且是切切实实的行动纲领.实施可持续发展战略需要有相应的指标体系作支撑.按照可持续发展思想对现行统计指标进行审视和扬弃,充分挖掘现有统计资料的价值,从而建     

联合国可持续发展指标体系的发展

1992年联合国在巴西召开了《联合国环境与发展会议》。这次会议是根据当时的环境与发展形势需要，同时为了纪念联合国人类环境会议20周年而召开的。会议通过了《21世纪议程》等重要文件。同时，认识到制定可持续发展指标帮助各国制定关于可持续发展政策的重要性，根据形势需要，联合国住这次会议之后成立了《联合国可持续发展委员会》，     

经济-电力-环境系统协调度分析

0引言1992年世界“环境与发展”首脑会议通过了《21世纪议程》,它表明可持续发展的思想已成为人类共同的议题,1995年中国将可持续发展作为了一项重要的发展战略。电力的可持续发展是我国可持续发展战略中一个重要的组成部分。一方面电力的发展必须满足国民经济与人民生活水平的     

可持续发展战略的实施需要统计事业的新发展

可持续发展是人类发展的必由之 路。这一思想在２０世纪的最后３０年，特别是１９９２年联合国环境与发展大会通过《２１世纪议程》之后，已成为全人类的共识和行动指针。我国政府于１９９４年发布了《中国２１世纪议程》，规定了我国实施可持续发展战略的目标和主要措施。把统计事业提高到一个新的水平，为实施可持续发展战略提供应有的信息支持，是推进新世纪健康发展面临的一个重要课题。新的发展观对统计提出新任务 人类发展的信息需求是统计发展的根本动力和最终归宿。就多数国家说来，２０世纪后半期的发展观和为之服务的统计，大体经…     

关于绿色国民经济核算体系的思考

国民经济核算体系（SNA）被认为是20世纪最重大的发明之一,在1992年6月的联合国世界环境与发展大会通过的《21世纪议程》主题文件中明确规定:“为了实现人类社会经济的可持续发展,主要目标是为了扩大现有国民经济核算体系,将环境和社会因素纳入该体     

建立中国可持续发展指标体系若干问题刍议

 在联合国环境与发展大会通过的重要文件——《21世纪议程》中明确规定：“各国在国家一级和各国际政府组织与非政府组织在国际一级,瑛探讨制定可持续发展的指标的概念,以便建立可持续发展指标。为了确保在卫星账户并最终在国民核算中运用部分此种指标,联合国秘书处统计处必须利用这方面不断积累的经验来从事制定指标的有关工作”。现在,一些国际组织（如世界银行、联合国可持续发展委员会等）和部分国家（如英国）已经建立起可持续发展指标体系的初步框架。我国虽于1996年3月通过了《中国21世纪议程——中国21世纪人口、环境与发展白皮书》,但至今尚未建立起国家一级的可持续发展指标体系。     

突变论与可持续发展统计学

可持续发展统计学是关于可持续发展状态统计量化与控制的方法论科学，突变论是可持续发展统计学建立与发展的重要理论与方法论基础。从可持续发展统计学的研究任务出发，以突变论为理论与方法论基础，可构造可持续发展统计学方法体系。可持续发展统计方法体系具体应由可持续发展统计指标体系、可持续发展评界方法体系和可持续发展统计控制方法体系构成     

On nonparametric Bayesian inference for the distribution of a random sample

The nonparametric Bayesian approach for inference regarding the unknown distribution of a random sample customarily assumes that this distribution is random and arises through Dirichlet-process mixing. Previous work within this setting has focused on the mean of the posterior distribution of this random distribution, which is the predictive distribution of a future observation given the sample. Our interest here is in learning about other features of this posterior distribution as well as about posteriors associated with functionals of the distribution of the data. We indicate how to do this in the case of linear functionals. An illustration, with a sample from a Gamma distribution, utilizes Dirichlet-process mixtures of normals to recover this distribution and its features.     

Trace of the Variance-Covariance Matrix in Natural Exponential Families

In this article, we introduce the notion of trace variance function which is the trace of the variance-covariance matrix. Under some conditions, we prove that this trace variance function characterizes the Natural Exponential Family (NEF). We apply this characterization in order to estimate the distribution which belongs to some NEFs. Therefore, we introduce the estimator of this trace variance function. We give the asymptotic properties of this estimator. Finally, we illustrate our results using a simulation study.     

A test statistic based on ranked set sampling for two normal means

In this study, we considered a hypothesis test for the difference of two population means using ranked set sampling. We proposed a test statistic for this hypothesis test with more than one cycle under normality. We also investigate the performance of this test statistic, when the assumptions hold and are violated. For this reason, we investigate the type I error and power rates of tests under normality with equal and unequal variances, non-normality with equal and unequal variances. We also examine the performance of this test under imperfect ranking case. The simulation results show that derived test performs quite well.     

A rich learning lesson using the Poisson distribution

In this note, we explore the rich information about inference that the Poisson distribution has. The source of this information is mainly the fact that the mean and variance of this distribution are equal.     

基于白化权函数分类区分度的变权灰色聚类

针对灰色聚类指标权重确定的问题,通过定义白化权函数的分类区分度来度量各指标对聚类对象的分类所作的贡献,并据此确定分类指标的权重。在此基础上,提出了变权灰色聚类方法。结果表明,该方法能够融合聚类对象的样本信息和专家的经验,有效确定不同聚类对象的各指标权重,且适用于聚类指标的量纲不同、数量级悬殊较大的情形。最后通过一个实例说明了变权灰色聚类的实用性和有效性。     

On optimal allocation of redundant components for series and parallel systems of two dependent components

In this paper we consider the problem of optimal allocation of a redundant component in the case of series and parallel systems of two components when all the components are dependent. Whereas this problem has been extensively treated for the case of independent components, the case of dependent components has not received too much attention. In this paper we show that for this problem the main tools are the joint stochastic orders introduced by Shanthikumar and Yao (1991).     

Pyramid Power: Searching for an Error in Test Scoring with 830,000 Helpers

A mathematics question that was asked on the Preliminary Scholastic Aptitude Test was scored incorrectly. This subsequently was discovered and became the subject of national attention. In this article we examine the data generated by this item from almost 830,000 examinees and find that detailed statistical analysis with even this enormous sample size would not have yielded clues to the blunder. The epistemological and practical consequences of this are also discussed.     

Rate of convergence for asymptotic variance of the Horvitz–Thompson estimator

Drawing distinct units without replacement and with unequal probabilities from a population is a problem often considered in the literature (e.g. Hanif and Brewer, 1980, Int. Statist. Rev. 48, 317–355). In such a case, the sample mean is a biased estimator of the population mean. For this reason, we use the unbiased Horvitz–Thompson estimator (1951). In this work, we focus our interest on the variance of this estimator. The variance is cumbersome to compute because it requires the calculation of a large number of second-order inclusion probabilities. It would be helpful to use an approximation that does not need heavy calculations. The Hájek (1964) variance approximation provides this advantage as it is free of second-order inclusion probabilities. Hájek (1964) proved that this approximation is valid under restrictive conditions that are usually not fulfilled in practice. In this paper, we give more general conditions and we show that this approximation remains acceptable for most practical problems.     

农网建设与改造国债投资分析——行业系列分析之四

农村电网建设与改造是１９９８年国家１０００亿国债重点投入的六个领域之一。改造农村电网对减轻农民负担，开拓农村市场，促进农村经济发展，提高广大农民的生活水平意义重大。到目前为止，农网建设与改造工程业已全面展开，农电管理体制改革正在起步，降低农村电价的努...     

The large sample coverage probability of confidence intervals in general regression models after a preliminary hypothesis test

We derive a computationally convenient formula for the large sample coverage probability of a confidence interval for a scalar parameter of interest following a preliminary hypothesis test that a specified vector parameter takes a given value in a general regression model. Previously, this large sample coverage probability could only be estimated by simulation. Our formula only requires the evaluation, by numerical integration, of either a double or a triple integral, irrespective of the dimension of this specified vector parameter. We illustrate the application of this formula to a confidence interval for the odds ratio of myocardial infarction when the exposure is recent oral contraceptive use, following a preliminary test where two specified interactions in a logistic regression model are zero. For this real‐life data, we compare this large sample coverage probability with the actual coverage probability of this confidence interval, obtained by simulation.