企业统计分析要向纵深发展

目前，企业的统计分权大多停留在比计划、比同期、比历史最好水平的“三比”阶段，习惯于罗列大量表面现象，缺乏分析深度，没有揭示现象本质，从而严重影响到统计职能的正常发挥。为此，笔者认为，企业统计分析应向纵深发展。1．针对性强、选题准确是统计分析向纵深发展的基础。在市场经济条件下，企业统计分析的针对性就是要对市场经济发展中带有苗头性、动向性的问题，特别是生产经营中存在的问题进行调查分析。选题要准确就是面对瞬息万变的市场，在了解企业自身情况、竞争对手的状况、市场需求的变化等基础上，紧跟企业发展的要求、企…     

略谈我国企业市场调研

随着社会主义市场经济的建立,我国企业正逐步走入市场,因而,企业的生产经营活动必须围绕着市场运转。企业要适应市场,就必须了解市场,掌握市场信息。不能大量、准确、及时、系统地掌握市场信息资料,就不能弄清企业外部条件对企业生产经营的影响。因此,企业要适应市场经济变化,就必须通过市场调研来了解市场的变化。一、我国企业市场调研的环境所谓企业市场调研是系统地、客观地搜集、记录、整理、分析和解释市场信息资料,以帮助企业管理人员制定有效的、明智的决策。企业市场调研在我国的发展比较缓慢。自新中国成立以后,国家、地…     

评估：企业统计分析的重要课题

我国正处于经济体制从计划经济转向社会主义市场经济,经济增长方式从粗放型转向集约型的根本性转变时期,企业的统计工作相应进行着转轨变型的改革。企业的统计分析要从计划执行情况检查分析逐步转变为针对企业生产经营情况的研究分析,其中一项重要内容是通过统计调查,综合各种统计信息,对生产经营中的大问题作出客观、科学的评估,提出统计咨询意见和决策建议。本文试就企业统计分析中开展评估的意义、方法和要求进行初步的探讨。一、企业开展评估的意义评估(Ｅｖａｌｕａｔｅ),是市场经济发达国家企业常用的经济研究和分析方法,引入企业统计…     

企业统计改革问题的探讨

随着社会主义市场经济体制的建立,依照“市场引导企业”的动作原则,企业生存与发展必须面向市场,及时了解市场发展势态,不断调整企业的生产经营战略,以增强应变能力,使企业在市场竞争中立于不败之地。作为企业生产经营决策的市场信息,责无旁贷的要由企业统计来搜集、整理、分析、咨询,企业统计的职能为适应企业经营机制的转变,必须适     

市场经济条件下企业统计改革将如何运作

一、社会主义市场经济对企业统计的影响 1、我国企业管理中统计管理的现实问题 市场经济是以市场机制调节经济行为以实现社会资源最优配置的经济体制。市场机制是指通过价格、供求、利息、工资等各种市场要素的相互作用,自动调节企业的生产经营活动,实现市场上供给与需求的均衡,满足社会各方需要的经济调节机制。在市场经济中,企业是市场经济的主体。市场机制引导企业的行为,企业的行为又影响着市场机制的运转。我国现阶段大多数企业的管理素质不适应市场经济的需要,这是因为我国的市场经济是在计划经济的基础上建立起     

股份制企业财务统计指标初探

股份制企业，是随着我国经济体制改革的不断深入，适应社会主义市场经济的发展为转换企业经营机制而出现的一种企业组织形式。随着股份制企业经营机制的转换，其经营管理方式发生了相应的变化，反映企业生产经营情况，为企业生产经营决策服务的统计指标，也应当适应股份制企业生产经营机制的需要而变化。在市场经济条件下随着商品市场、资金市场、信息市场和技术市场的逐步形成和完善，特别是我国即将恢复世界贸易组织成员国的地位，各类市场之间，各类市场与国际市场的接轨和融合速度将加快，这种趋热必将对统计指标的界定发生积极的影响。…     

统计分析工作的几点思考

统计分析工作的几点思考浙江贸易学校徐文良随着社会主义市场经济的不断发展，社会经济领域发生了深刻的变化。为了及时掌握瞬息万变的市场信息，并对企业生产经营活动作出科学的决策，就必须做好统计分析工作。统计分析是统计活动的重要组成部分，是认识客观世界的重要工...     

企业统计信息的利用及其分析评价方法

一、统计信息的利用 1.利用统计资料,为企业发展服务 发挥企业统计的信息服务主要包括以下几个方面:一是充分利用统计数字和统计分析结果,对现有企业经营基本条件,科技水平、市场竞争力、市场占有率、人力资源、综合势力等情况如实进行评价,并参照国家有关指标进行分析比较,全面掌握和了解企业发展过程中存在的优势与急待改进的"瓶颈"问题;二是密切关注兄弟企业的发展动态,全面评价企业与其他企业在生产能力、产品开发、科研创新、市场份额等方面的差异,以便企业摆正位置,及时调整思路,明确奋斗目标,争取在生产经营、生产效益等方面不断创造新成绩,跃上新台阶;三是结合统计资料所提供的信息,认真考察和仔细评判企业经营资源配置现状,努力挖掘生产经营潜力,调动各方面积极性,达到实现企业生产经营资源,特别是人力、物力资源的优化配置和提高经营效益的目的;四是以全面、系统、准确的统计数据为基础,以统计分析报告形式,积极参与企业中长期发展规划和近期工作计划的制定,充分发挥统计信息、在科学决策中的作用.     

浅谈统计分析为企业经营服务

统计分析工作是一项重要的基础工作,随着社会主义市场经济的建立和完善,统计工作的地位不断提高,作为统计报表数据语言化、形象化的手段,统计分析也开始受到企业决策人的关注,在生产经营活动中发挥着作用.因此,怎样写好统计分析,使企业的统计分析为企业经营服务,适应市场竞争的需要,是我们每一个统计人员的责职和义务,下面就统计分析为企业经营服务谈几点看法:     

试谈市场经济与企业内部管理

我国经济体制改革的目标是建立社会主义市场经济体制。国有企业特别是大中型企业,过去主要是在计划经济条件下,由国家统一计划,统一分配经营,逐渐向自主经营,自我发展,自我约束,自负盈亏的方式上转变,难免在许多方面不能适应市场经济的客观规律,使一些企业造成亏损经营,倒闭被兼并。因此,企业必须要强化市场意识,转变观念,转变机制,     

A bivariate fractionally cointegrated relationship in the context of cyclical structures

This paper deals with the analysis of cointegration in a bivariate system. However, we depart from the classic concept of cointegration in two aspects. First, we permit fractional degrees of integration in both the parent series and in their linear combination. Second, instead of assuming that the pole or singularity in the spectrum takes places at the zero frequency, we consider the case where the singularity occurs at a frequency λ in the interval (0, π]. We use a procedure that follows the same lines as the two-step testing strategy of R.F. Engle, and C.W.J. Granger, [Cointegration and error correction model. Representation, estimation and testing, Econometrica 55 (1987), pp. 251–276]. Thus, we test first the order of integration in the individual series, which are specified in terms of the Gegenbauer polynomials. Then, if the two series share the same degree of integration at a given frequency, we test the null hypothesis of no cointegration against the alternative of fractional cyclical cointegration, by testing the order of integration on the estimated residuals from the cointegrating regression. Finite sample critical values are obtained, and the power properties of the test are examined. An empirical application is also carried out at the end of the article.     

Sojourning With the Homogeneous Poisson Process

In this pedagogical article, distributional properties, some surprising, pertaining to the homogeneous Poisson process (HPP), when observed over a possibly random window, are presented. Properties of the gap-time that covered the termination time and the correlations among gap-times of the observed events are obtained. Inference procedures, such as estimation and model validation, based on event occurrence data over the observation window, are also presented. We envision that through the results in this article, a better appreciation of the subtleties involved in the modeling and analysis of recurrent events data will ensue, since the HPP is arguably one of the simplest among recurrent event models. In addition, the use of the theorem of total probability, Bayes’ theorem, the iterated rules of expectation, variance and covariance, and the renewal equation could be illustrative when teaching distribution theory, mathematical statistics, and stochastic processes at both the undergraduate and graduate levels. This article is targeted toward both instructors and students.     

Robust estimation of mixtures of regressions with random covariates,via trimming and constraints

A robust estimator for a wide family of mixtures of linear regression is presented. Robustness is based on the joint adoption of the cluster weighted model and of an estimator based on trimming and restrictions. The selected model provides the conditional distribution of the response for each group, as in mixtures of regression, and further supplies local distributions for the explanatory variables. A novel version of the restrictions has been devised, under this model, for separately controlling the two sources of variability identified in it. This proposal avoids singularities in the log-likelihood, caused by approximate local collinearity in the explanatory variables or local exact fits in regressions, and reduces the occurrence of spurious local maximizers. In a natural way, due to the interaction between the model and the estimator, the procedure is able to resist the harmful influence of bad leverage points along the estimation of the mixture of regressions, which is still an open issue in the literature. The given methodology defines a well-posed statistical problem, whose estimator exists and is consistent to the corresponding solution of the population optimum, under widely general conditions. A feasible EM algorithm has also been provided to obtain the corresponding estimation. Many simulated examples and two real datasets have been chosen to show the ability of the procedure, on the one hand, to detect anomalous data, and, on the other hand, to identify the real cluster regressions without the influence of contamination.     

Statistical inference for the quintile share ratio

In recent years, the Quintile Share Ratio (or QSR) has become a very popular measure of inequality. In 2001, the European Council decided that income inequality in European Union member states should be described using two indicators: the Gini Index and the QSR. The QSR is generally defined as the ratio of the total income earned by the richest 20% of the population relative to that earned by the poorest 20%. Thus, it can be expressed using quantile shares, where a quantile share is the share of total income earned by all of the units up to a given quantile. The aim of this paper is to propose an improved methodology for the estimation and variance estimation of the QSR in a complex sampling design framework. Because the QSR is a non-linear function of interest, the estimation of its sampling variance requires advanced methodology. Moreover, a non-trivial obstacle in the estimation of quantile shares in finite populations is the non-unique definition of a quantile. Thus, two different conceptions of the quantile share are presented in the paper, leading us to two different estimators of the QSR. Regarding variance estimation, [Osier, 2006] and [Osier, 2009] proposed a variance estimator based on linearization techniques. However, his method involves Gaussian kernel smoothing of cumulative distribution functions. Our approach, also based on linearization, shows that no smoothing is needed. The construction of confidence intervals is discussed and a proposition is made to account for the skewness of the sampling distribution of the QSR. Finally, simulation studies are run to assess the relevance of our theoretical results.     

ON CERTAIN CONNECTIONS BETWEEN ALGEBRAIC GEOMETRY AND STATISTICS

The Department of Mathematical Statistics of the University of Sydney invited Professor Yu. V. Linnik, of Leningrad University, to deliver a public address to be attended by, among others, members of the 36th Congress of the International Statistical Institute. A summary of this address, delivered at 8.30 p.m. on Thursday, August 30, 1967, at the University of Sydney, is given below. Professor Linnik referred to related work of other authors, including Professors C. R. Rao and P. Whittle, who were present. Professor Rao later gave a short account of his recent work. Professor A. T. James moved a vote of thanks, which was carried by acclamation by a large audience. Reprints of the paper are being sent to those members of the International Statistical Institute present at the meeting.—EDITOR.     

流动人口女性个体的生育间隔影响因素研究——基于2016年全国流动人口动态监测调查数据

本文采用2016年全国流动人口动态监测调查数据,运用半参数Cox回归对我国流动人口的生育间隔进行分析。结果发现：第一,不仅人口流动会延迟女性的生育时间,而且受教育水平的提高对女性的婚育间隔、第一次生育间隔均有显著的延迟效应。第二,结婚年龄越大,婚后越有可能选择尽早生育,且不同初婚时间对生育间隔的影响差异明显。同时,参加医疗保险对婚育间隔存在显著的缩短效应,而参加生育保险对生育间隔存在显著的延迟效应。越有经济实力以及在工作中担任重要职位的女性越有可能扩大生育间隔;而随着婚育间隔的扩大,第一次生育间隔反而会缩短。第三,初育子女的性别对第一次生育间隔的影响存在显著差异,即若初次生育为女性,则第一次生育间隔会缩短。第四,根据生育政策效果分析发现,放开生育政策虽无法促使女性缩短婚育间隔,但会明显缩短第一次生育间隔。     

On the Exact and Near-Exact Distributions of the Product of Generalized Gamma Random Variables and the Generalized Variance

In this article, the authors first obtain the exact distribution of the logarithm of the product of independent generalized Gamma r.v.’s (random variables) in the form of a Generalized Integer Gamma distribution of infinite depth, where all the rate and shape parameters are well identified. Then, by a routine transformation, simple and manageable expressions for the exact distribution of the product of independent generalized Gamma r.v.’s are derived. The method used also enables us to obtain quite easily very accurate, manageable and simple near-exact distributions in the form of Generalized Near-Integer Gamma distributions. Numerical studies are carried out to assess the precision of different approximations to the exact distribution and they show the high accuracy of the approximations provided by the near-exact distributions. As particular cases of the exact distributions obtained we have the distribution of the product of independent Gamma, Weibull, Frechet, Maxwell-Boltzman, Half-Normal, Rayleigh, and Exponential distributions, as well as the exact distribution of the generalized variance, the exact distribution of discriminants or Vandermonde determinants and the exact distribution of any linear combination of generalized Gumbel distributions, as well as yet the distribution of the product of any power of the absolute value of independent Normal r.v.’s.     

领先指数:对未来经济趋势的推测

随着人类社会经济环境的复杂化,经济活动的广泛化以及经济依存关系的深入化,使用现有的单一经济统计指标来观测或预见实际的经济状况变得愈来愈困难。领先指数建立在对基础经济指标的合成基础上。领先指数最基本的特征在于其相对于实际经济波动的先行性,因此也往往被称为先行指数。介绍了领先指数的发生、发展,参与测算的参考指标与基础指标的选择、方法论以及指数可能存在的局限性。随着中国经济的转型,中国经济增长的波动性上升以及中国经济对于全球的影响越来越大,对于中国领先指数的研发将成为越来越重要的工作。领先指数的指示与短期预测功能将为中国的官员、学者以及研究人员更好地设计、理解和运用领先指数提供必要的知识支持。     

Environmental sampling with a concomitant variable: a comparison between ranked set sampling and stratified simple random sampling

In many environmental sampling situations, the variable of interest is either not easily observable or is too expensive to observe. Under such circumstances, the need arises to observe another variable, related to the variable of interest, so as to estimate the population parameters of interest. We study the performance of two different sampling procedures, i.e. ranked set sampling and stratified simple random sampling, when both stratification and ranking are accomplished on the basis of such a concomitant variable. The relative precision of the two methods is obtained and expressed as a function of population variance, between-stratum and between-rank variation, and the correlation coefficient between the variable of interest and the concomitant variable. The relative precision is computed for several important families of distributions that occur frequently in environmental and ecological work. Under equal allocation of sampling units, stratified simple random sampling is found to perform better than ranked set sampling, when the costs incurred to obtain sample measurements are ignored. When optimum allocation is considered for both methods, ranked set sampling performs better than stratified simple random sampling, when the concomitant variable is not highly correlated with the variable of interest. Furthermore, when the costs of sampling and the costs of measurement are incorporated into the assessment of the relative precision, the ranked set sampling is seen to be more efficient than stratified simple random sampling, particularly when the cost of stratification is high compared with that of ranking. This is generally the case in practice.     

A simulation study of five biased estimators for straight line regression

Five biased estimators of the slope in straight line regression are considered. For each, the estimate of the “bias parameter”, k, is a function of N, the number of observations, and [rcirc]² , the square of the least squares estimate of the standardized slope, β. The estimators include that of Farebrother, the ridge estimator of Hoerl, Kennard, and Baldwin, Vinod's shrunken estimators., and a new modification of one of the latter. Properties of the estimators are studied for 13 combinations of N and 3. Results of simulation experiments provide empirical evidence concerning the values of means and variances of the biased estimators of the slope and estimates of the “bias parameter”, the mean square errors of the estimators, and the frequency of improvement relative to least squares. Adjustments to degrees of freedom in the biased regression analysis of variance table are also considered. An extension of the new modification to the case of p> 1 independent variables is presented in an Appendix.