建立开放、高效、适应的政府统计是当务之急

我国的政府统计工作经过长期的改革和实践,科学有效组织实施大型统计调查的能力大大提高,现阶段的统计事业正处于日益上升的发展轨道。但在我国体制转轨、经济转型的过程中,政府统计工作又面临许多新情况、新问题,其中制约统计发展最突出的四大瓶颈问题是:基础基层工作仍然薄弱,统计能力有待加强;统计管理体制仍不完善,资源与力量分散,统计效益有待提高;统计执法乏力,数据质量面临挑战;人才队伍建设滞后,科学统计有待加强。因此,新时期统计工作要有新发展,就要集中力量破解制约统计事业发展的瓶颈,推动我国统计工作朝着“开放透明、灵活高效…     

全国首届统计论文、统计分析、调查报告评选活动十月份在京举行

为全面贯彻落实党的十五大精神,加快我国统计制度立法的改革,根据今年全国统计工作会议提出的“积极推进各项统计改革和建设,切实提高统计服务质量,进一步开拓统计工作新局面”的要求,更好地调动了广大统计专家、学者、统计工作者的科研积极性,为我国统计事业的改革和发展出谋划策,提供     

一靠科技、二靠法制，实现统计的社会化、国际化、产业化、商品化

一靠科技、二靠法制,实现统计的社会化、国际化、产业化、商品化张塞一、统计工作的三个发展战略阶段十五年来,我国的改革开放取得了举世瞩目的成就。为适应改革开放的需要,统计工作进行了一系列重大改革,也取得了显著的成就。从１９７８年到１９８４年,统计工作在“...     

用科学、实用的教材培养统计人才

用科学、实用的教材培养统计人才翟立功一、用科学、实用的教材培养统计人才是统计工作改革、发展的客观要求和必然趋势随着我国经济的蓬勃发展，我国的统计工作也取得了巨大的成绩。自《统计法》和国务院《关于加强统计工作的决定》颁布实施以来，我国的统计工作大体经历...     

浅谈县级统计部门的任务、地位及其作用

县级统计工作是我国统计工作的基础,县级统计部门是最基层的综合统计部门,在国家、省、市统计工作中具有举足轻重的作     

瞄准“快、精、准”,打好“短、频、快”

统计的“三大功能”中虽然没有明确提出服务，但应该指出的是：不但统计信息和统计资询含有服务的内容，而且鉴于我国统计工作面临“统一领导，分级负责”的管理体制的实际，统计既要由过去的单纯反映实践变为既来源实践又指导实践；既要具体体现出最终成果，又要依靠当地党政领导的关心和支持，就离不开服务。统计工作者不把这个位定好，不但谈不上搞好统计工作，而且更谈不上发挥统计的作用和做到统计工作的“有为”和“有位”了。如何做好统计服务工作，我认为，关键是要吃透朱镕基总理对统计工作提出来的“快、精、准”这三个字的指示。…     

青田县乡镇统计工作的现状、问题与对策

乡镇统计工作是我国政府统计工作的基础。在建设社会主义新农村这个新时期,乡镇统计工作在农村经济建设和全面小康建设过程中担负的责任更为重大。然而,青田县乡镇统计工作现状如何?能否适应新时期统计工作的发展要求?笔者通过调查研究发现,青田县乡镇统计工作任务与统计工作机     

统计人员应成为学法、知法、用法的模范

一、统计人员应该认真学习,深刻掌握《统计法》知识。我国各级人民政府、各部门和企事业组织,根据统计任务的需要,设置了统计机构和统计人员,这部分专业统计工作者须深刻学习和掌握统计法知识,这样才能做到有法可依、执法必严、违法必究。《统计法》是保障统计工     

《统计法》普及宣传讲话 一、我国统计立法的目的、根据与程序

《中华人民共和国统计法》巳由第六届全国人民代表大会常务委员会第三次会议于 1983年 12月 8日通过,以中华人民共和国主席令第9号公布。这是我国社会主义统计工作发展史上一个新的里程碑,它标志着我国统计工作开始走上法治的轨道。它的实施,必将加快我国统计工作现代化的步伐,对促进我国社会主义现代化建设事业的顺利发展,产生积极的深远的影响。     

全国八届人大、八届政协部分代表、委员谈统计

作为为国家宏观经济管理提供信息的统计工作,在历届全国人大、全国政协会议上,都受到代表、委员们的关注。在我国经济向社会主义市场经济转变的关键时刻,如何搞好我国的统计工作,更成为全国八届人大和全国政协八届会议的代表、委员们讨论的热门话题之一。     

Table of percentage points of ratios of linear combinations of order statistics of samples from exponential distributions

A form of the distribution function of ratios of linear combinations of order statistics of samples from an exponential distribution is given. From the distribution, tables of percentage points of the statistic for α = .05, .95, and n = 3(1)50, and for censoring up to five observations are presented. Use of the tables is made to find critical values of the most powerful scale and location invariant test of exponentiality against uniformity, and also to find critical values for a test of outliers in an exponential population.     

基于消费不足的中国效率市场结构分析

一、效率市场辨析效率市场是指股票市场价格能够充分反映各种信息的股票市场。效率市场这一假说 ,或称有效市场假说 ,主要探究的是股票价格与市场信息的关系 ,是股票市场研究的基本问题之一。该学说由Roberts首次提出 ,他以一个完美市场为前提 ,按信息集的三种不同类型将效率市场划分为三种不同水平 :弱式有效市场 ,半强式有效市场和强式有效市场。但笔者认为 ,效率市场不应局限股票市场 ,也不应仅关注价格对信息的反映。理由如下 :其一 ,效率市场有着更广泛的外延。不仅是股票市场 ,其它市场也存在效率问题。因此 ,对效率市场可以进一步分…     

Data-Based Modeling of the Failure Rate of Repairable Equipment

A databaseof failures of many types of medical equipment was analysed,to study the dependence of failure rate on equipment age andon time since repair. The intention was to use this large datasetto assess the validity of some widely-used models of failurerate, such as the power-law and loglinear Poisson processes,and so to recommend simple and adequate models to those practitionershaving little data to discriminate between rival models. Theaim is also to illustrate a methodology for computing policycosts from failure databases. The power-law process model wasfound to fit slightly better overall than did the loglinear andlinear processes. Some related models were created to fit anobserved peaking of failure rate. The data showed a decreasinghazard of (first) failure after repair for some equipment types.This can be due to imperfect or hazardous repair, and also todiffering failure rates among a population of machines. Two simplemodels of imperfect repair were used to fit the data, and anEmpirical Bayes method was used to fit a model of variable failurerate between machines. Neglect of such variation can lead toan over-estimate of the hazardousness of repair.     

Modeling of semi-competing risks by means of first passage times of a stochastic process

In semi-competing risks one considers a terminal event, such as death of a person, and a non-terminal event, such as disease recurrence. We present a model where the time to the terminal event is the first passage time to a fixed level c in a stochastic process, while the time to the non-terminal event is represented by the first passage time of the same process to a stochastic threshold S, assumed to be independent of the stochastic process. In order to be explicit, we let the stochastic process be a gamma process, but other processes with independent increments may alternatively be used. For semi-competing risks this appears to be a new modeling approach, being an alternative to traditional approaches based on illness-death models and copula models. In this paper we consider a fully parametric approach. The likelihood function is derived and statistical inference in the model is illustrated on both simulated and real data.     

论加强需求管理——对当前宏观经济形势的认识及其调控建议

１９９７年下半年开始,我国经济明显出现了居民消费需求不足,或者说,出现了供给相对过剩的发展态势。至１９９８年１２月已连续１５个月物价指数同比负增长,１９９８年商品零售价格下降２．６％,居民消费价格下降０．８％,可以认为这又是通货紧缩的重要征兆。出现需...     

Maximum a-posteriori estimation of autoregressive processes based on finite mixtures of scale-mixtures of skew-normal distributions

This article investigates maximum a-posteriori (MAP) estimation of autoregressive model parameters when the innovations (errors) follow a finite mixture of distributions that, in turn, are scale-mixtures of skew-normal distributions (SMSN), an attractive and extremely flexible family of probabilistic distributions. The proposed model allows to fit different types of data which can be associated with different noise levels, and provides a robust modelling with great flexibility to accommodate skewness, heavy tails, multimodality and stationarity simultaneously. Also, the existence of convenient hierarchical representations of the SMSN random variables allows us to develop an EM-type algorithm to perform the MAP estimates. A comprehensive simulation study is then conducted to illustrate the superior performance of the proposed method. The new methodology is also applied to annual barley yields data.     

A note on estimation of the shape of density level sets of star-shaped distributions

Elliptically contoured distributions generalize the multivariate normal distributions in such a way that the density generators need not be exponential. However, as the name suggests, elliptically contoured distributions remain to be restricted in that the proportional density level sets ought to be ellipsoids. In star-shaped distributions, this restriction is relaxed and the density level sets are allowed to be boundaries of arbitrary proportional star-shaped sets. In this note, we propose a non parametric estimator of the shape of density level sets of star-shaped distributions, and prove its strong consistency with respect to the Hausdorff distance. We illustrate our estimator with simulated and real data.     

《企业经济统计学》理论体系改革方向的探讨

 随着社会主义市场经济体制的确立与完善,我国企业的经济活动也在发生着重大的变化。作为研究企业数量规律性的企业经济统计学必须适应这些变化,不断发展和改革现有的理论体系,才能更好的为企业决策和国家宏观调控服务。     

Nonparametric estimation of the mode of a distribution of random curves

Motivated by the need to develop meaningful empirical approximations to a 'typical' data value, we introduce methods for density and mode estimation when data are in the form of random curves. Our approach is based on finite dimensional approximations via generalized Fourier expansions on an empirically chosen basis. The mode estimation problem is reduced to a problem of kernel-type multivariate estimation from vector data and is solved using a new recursive algorithm for finding the empirical mode. The algorithm may be used as an aid to the identification of clusters in a set of data curves. Bootstrap methods are employed to select the bandwidth.     

Detection of symmetry or lack of 11 and applications

Developed is a method for using a random sample to select between the model of symmetry of the sampled distribution and the model of skewness to the right. The technique is meant to be used as a preliminary step, in the analysis of data, which is to be followed by other inferential procedures. Two examples of this use, which pertain to robust regression and quantile estimation, are discussed.