“TCL反思研讨会”有感

报载，正值TCL集团成立20周年之际，TCL集团一反常规，没有举行庆祝会，而是举办“TCL20年成长反思研讨会”，并邀请国务院发展研究中心、中国社会科学院、北京大学等单位的十几位专家、学者帮助TCL反思。会上，TCL总裁李东生进行了深刻地反思，认为TCL在过去的十年中存在两大失误，一是在没有充分准备的情况下，进入了过多的产业领域；二是靠通信－TCL电话打响了品牌，却错过了90年代国内通信产业高速成长的商业机会。同时指出TCL与国际集团的差距，承认TCL只是国际集团的“跟随者”。     

江河何日安澜

编者的话：多灾多难的２０世纪即将过去。我们回顾、反思、分析这个世纪的各种自然灾难和人类自己制造的灾难，为的是让２１世纪欢乐多于苦难，祈祝新世纪的人类更加健康、安宁。为此，本刊特辟“世纪反思”专栏，请北京市政府专家顾问、北京市减灾协会副秘书长、高级工程...     

对政府统计改革模式反思及改革路径定位研究

政府统计改革的效果取决于改革路径的选择，为此，本文在对我国政府统计改革模式反思的基础上，提出了新形势下我国政府统计改革路径。     

加快抽样调查人才培养问题的思考

本文结合我国的具体国情，围绕着抽样调查人才的培养，从师资培养、教材建设、教学方法、课程设置等方面进行了一些反思，并提出了相应的建议与主张。     

现代名人

巴金原名李尧棠，成都人，以小说《家》《春》《秋》扬名文坛，是“五四”以来最具影响力的作家之一，晚年撰《随想录》提倡反思精神，被誉为“中国知识分子的良心”。     

人口抽样调查的反思

反思人口抽样调查将在多大程度上影响统计方法制度的改革?及其价值如何?定位又如何?回答这类问题,后人可能比我们更准确,更客观.但是,有一点是确定的,对于这样的庞大工程,惟有深刻,能对制度改革产生深远影响的反思,才能称之为有价值.因此,反思之前,对反思本身进行一番反思,可能很有必要.     

对我国固定资产投资方式转变的思考

 固定资产投资作为带动经济增长的重要因素，是经济增长方式转变的一项重要内容。立足经济增长方式转变这个大背景，对我国固定资产投资方式进行回顾和反思，并探索实现投资方式的目标及其外部环境，具有重要的现实意义。     

对我国统计教育改革与发展若干问题的看法

对我国统计教育改革与发展若干问题的看法江西财经大学林洪一、统计教育改革的回顾与反思十一届三中全会以后，在实事求是思想路线的指引下，我国的统计教育改革，在办学方针、培养目标、课程设置等方面取得了很大进展。特别是近年来，随着市场经济体制的确立，统计教育的...     

产品创新：谨防陷入沼泽地

在美国纽约的“失败产品博物馆”里，高达8万多件“失败产品”静候人们反思。其中不乏很多大公司的产品，功能强大，或很新奇。博物馆提供了这样一个数字：美国每年推向市场的新产品达54000多种，而真正受到青睐的只有20％。     

产业的变迁与反思入世十年中国互联网

中国加入世贸组织已经十年。在产业政策环境变迁的情况下，互联网产业出现了巨大的变化，主要表现在互联网经济飞速发展，互联网产业投资多元，网络媒体茁壮成长和移动互联网蓬勃发展四大方面。在高速发展的同时，中国互联网产业也暴露出一些潜在问题。对这些问题的反思和解决，将为中国互联网产业带来更为广阔的发展空间。     

国际官方统计的新发展

联合国统计委员会会议是国际统计界的盛会,集中反映全球官方统计的最新成果和进展。本文对联合国统计委员会第50届会议最主要的若干问题,包括《2030年可持续发展议程》的数据和指标、官方统计基本原则、国家质量保证框架、官方统计使用大数据、国民账户体系、统计用途商业登记册、价格统计、住户调查、国际比较方案等领域的新发展进行了概述,从4个方面提出了国际官方统计的新发展对中国政府统计工作的启示。     

Is the Statistics Authority another factory inspectorate?

It is a year since the Statistics Authority came into being. Official statistics are now supposed to be independent and on course to be trustworthy—and transformed to serve not just government but society as a whole. Has it all worked out? Ian Maclean of the Statistics Users Forum says a start has been made, but progress has been slower than hoped.     

Current challenges in statistics: large-lecture courses

Each semester approximately 80% of the students taught by the Florida State University Department of Statistics are enrolled in STA 3014: Fundamental Business Statistics. During the academic year this course is taught in large lecture sections of 250 students each. It is either the only statistics course or one of two statistics courses taken in their undergraduate career for probably 90% of these students. A similar situation exists in many statistics departments around the nation.

These large introductory courses offer us the opportunity to introduce the power of statistics to a large fraction of our future business leaders. In the past it appears that this opportunity has often been missed. In fact, some suggest that these courses help contribute to the general public's negative attitude toward statistics courses, the discipline of statistics, and statisticians.

Hence, I propose that one of the current challenges in statistics is the challenge of improving the quality of these courses so that statistics may contribute to the improvement of quality and productivity in the United States, a vital national issue. In this paper I report on my experiences in grappling with this challenge in STA 3014.     

《统计通论》的版本、内容及影响

《统计通论》是20世纪上半叶在中日两国十分流行的社会统计学教材,截止1921年6月,其日文版在日本发行了42个版本,截止1931年5月为止,其中文版由商务印书馆共发行了10个版次。此书前身乃横山雅男的《统计学讲义》,也即1903年时中书局版《统计讲义录》（钮永建与林卓男译）的底本,1908年版孟森译《统计通论》的底本乃日文版《统计通论》的第4版（1904年）。该书包含社会统计学最基本内容,它不仅在日本普及了西方近代统计学理论和方法,而且在中国推动了传统统计思想方法向现代的转变,在晚清、民国时期的统计学教育中发挥了重要作用。     

Official statistics, public policy and public trust

Summary.  The question of public confidence in official statistics has been central to government statistical policy for the last 10 years. This year the Statistics and Registration Service Act 2007 was passed. The paper suggests key characteristics of the new arrangements that will be needed if public confidence in the official statistics outputs is to be strengthened. It is argued that this will depend on public confidence in the statistical system as a whole rather than just the new Board. The organizational structure of the UK statistical system is described and this is linked to the issue of public confidence. Finally the wider questions of evidence-based policy and the use of statistics and statistical thinking throughout government are discussed.     

Interesting times for official statistics

The Statistics Commission was set up in 2000 to monitor the production of official statistics in the UK. Professor David Rhind was one of the founding Commissioners, and has been Chairman since 2003. He tells Helen Joyce that he hasn't had a quiet moment since.     

No islands: charting a course for UK official statistics

Our system of official statistics in the UK is one of the most decentralised and elaborate in the world. As well as the Office for National Statistics (ONS), it spans several sizeable centres of expertise in Whitehall departments and in the three devolved administrations; and it embraces agencies such as the Higher Education Statistics Agency and the Information Centre for Health and Social Care, which sit at arms length from central departments. In 2008, legislation establishing a new Statistics Board, with oversight not just of the ONS but of all official figures produced by these bodies, will come fully into force. Richard Alldritt of the Statistics Commission and Richard Laux of the ONS identify some of the challenges facing the statistical system at this time of transition and suggests a course that the Statistics Board might want to steer.     

经济统计学与计量经济学等相关学科的关系及发展前景

本文从统计学和经济学统一的视角,分析与阐述经济统计学与计量经济学等相关学科——概率论、数理统计学、计量经济学以及经济理论（包括数理经济学）之间的相互关系及发展前景。作为从样本信息推断母体特征的一般方法论,数理统计学由于符合人类科学研究的过程与需要,因而在自然科学和社会科学的很多领域得到了广泛应用。计量经济学是经济实证研究的推断方法论。经济统计学与计量经济学一起,构成经济实证研究完整的方法论,其中,作为经济测度方法论,经济统计学不仅提供定量描述经济实际运行的理论、方法与工具,它也是经济实证研究的先决条件与基础,是计量经济学理论发展的一个重要推动力量。经济统计学面临不少挑战,但有深厚的学科根基与巨大的发展空间,其作用是任何相关学科均不能替代的。统计学各个分支的交叉融合,将推动经济统计学和计量经济学的共同发展,从而进一步提升中国经济学实证研究的水平与科学性。     

互联网统计研究

互联网发展从IT到DT已经成为必然的趋势,本文研究了DT时代的统计思维,提出互联网统计概念和互联网统计体系的基本内容,研究了面向未来发展的互联统计、互通统计、互动统计的互联网统计理论体系。考察了国际电信联盟、中国互联网络信息中心的互联网统计体系,以及国家统计局企业信息化和电子商务统计,指出存在的问题和与实际需要的巨大缺口,研究了互联网统计发展所面临的挑战,提出了我国互联网统计发展的政策建议。     

Limit theory of generalized order statistics

Generalized order statistics (gos) were introduced by Kamps [1995. A Concept of Generalized Order Statistics. Teubner, Stuttgart] to unify several models of ordered random variables (rv's), e.g., (ordinary) order statistics (oos), records, sequential order statistics (sos). In a wide subclass of gos that includes oos and sos, the possible limit distribution functions (df's) of the maximum gos are obtained in Nasri-Roudsari [1996. Extreme value theory of generalized order statistics. J. Statist. Plann. Inference 55, 281–297]. In this paper, for this subclass, necessary and sufficient conditions of weak convergence, as well as the form of the possible limit df's of extreme, intermediate and central gos are derived. These results are extended to a wider subclass.