The population problems in the countryside of China from the viewpoint of ecological economy]

There is a very close relationship between the population and the economy. The economy is the foundation for the existence and development of the population. Different socioeconomic patterns will determine population rules and population development, they have a strong influence on the social economy and the development of the entire society, and they may control the pace of social and economic development. In the last 30 years, excessive population growth has caused a great many difficulties for Socialist construction, overburdened agriculture, and created an imbalance in agricultural ecology. In order to understand the relationship between the development of the agricultural population and agricultural production, we have to understand to dominant position held by people in an agricultural ecology system. People have to control their own reproduction and match it with the productivity of the agricultural ecology system. Unrestrained population growth in the countryside is the main reason for an imbalance in China's agricultural ecology. Urgent action is needed to control the population growth in the rural areas, to fully utilized the available labor force, to promote the level of agricultural productivity, and to provide more employment opportunities. The final goal is to match China's huge agricultural human resources with its rich resources. investment should be encouraged to increase the wisdom and quality of the agricultural population. Both the quality and quantity of the agricultural labor force should also match development of agricultural productivity. In this way, a normal condition of agricultural ecology may be maintained.     

Institutionalized motivation for fertility limitation in China

Abstract After initial misgivings based on orthodox Marxist ideology regarding population control, the People's Republic of China officially came out in favour of population limitation. The government denies the dire Malthusian prophecy that population will outstrip China's supply of food and natural resources. Instead it supports population limitation to ease the costs of economic growth, which under Chinese conditions requires a strong labour force and a concentration of capital in productive enterprises rather than a high rate of consumption. By applying the experience of the developed nations, China has reduced pre-industrial levels of mortality and morbidity. This has decreased the expense to society of a non-productive populace which dies before it repays the costs of its upbringing and training. As a result, China undoubtedly has a high rate of population growth. Lower fertility will lessen the proportion of children to adult workers and will release females for employment; for these reasons the government advocates fertility control. Observers lack data from the two national censuses (1953-54 and 1964) and registration system to assess China's success in fertility reduction. Instead the patterns of social mobility and social control which shape reproductive motivation must be evaluated. In so doing I address myself to one main question: how has China's approach to economic development in the past five years affected the motivation of her youth to reduce fertility?     

中国各地区人口年龄结构变动的消费效应分析

消费是影响一国经济增长的重要因素,对于影响消费的众多因素研究,大多基于收入分配不均和收入不确定性视角,而忽略了另外一个非常重要的因素,那就是人口年龄结构变化对消费的影响效应。上世纪70年代计划生育政策的推行和人口预期寿命的延长,加快了我国人口转变及老龄化发展的步伐,这一转变必将改变居民的储蓄消费行为,影响储蓄-消费模式和消费率。基于我国2002-2008年省级面板数据,本文研究了各地区人口转变对消费率的影响。研究表明,消费率与少儿抚养比、老年抚养比之间分别存在正相关关系与负相关关系。     

Further discussion of the quantitative limitation of population growth and planned adjustment]

The problem of the quantitative limitation of population growth is related to the development of economic and social productivity. Under a Socialist system, the reproduction of people themselves may follow a projected plan, in order that population growth may match economic growth, the quality of the population may be promoted, and sufficient employment will be possible for the entire labor force. The problem of the quantitative limitation of population growth, however, still exists. In the early stage of social development under Socialism, a quantitative limitation of population growth and planned adjustment were necessary in order to provide enough basic needs for daily livelihood and employment. In the later stage of social development, a quantitative limitation of the population growth and planned adjustment are still needed for the purpose of promoting population quality and ensuring the entire development of the people. Under a socialist system, excessive labor productivity will not produce pressure on the population; instead, it will provide new content for the planned adjustment of people's production and reproduction. From here, the capability of dealing with the problem of the newly increased population will be strengthened, and also the capability of working out a planned adjustment between the two productions will be enhanced.     

The effects of economic and population growth on national saving and inequality

This is a progress report on ongoing research into the effects of economic and population growth on national saving rates and inequality. The theoretical basis for the investigation is the life cycle model of saving and inequality. We report evidence that is conditional on the validity of the model, as well as evidence that casts doubt on it. Using time series of cross-sectional household surveys from Taiwan, Thailand, Britain, and the United States, we show that it is possible to force a life cycle interpretation on the data on consumption, income, and saving, but that the evidence is not consistent with large rate-of-growth effects, whereby economic and population growth enhances rates of national saving. The well-established cross-country link between economic growth and saving cannot be attributed to life cycle saving, nor will changes in economic or population growth exert large effects on saving within individual countries. There is evidence in favor of the life cycle model’s prediction that within-cohort inequality of consumption and of total income—though not necessarily inequality of earnings-—should increase with the age of the cohort. Decreases in the population growth rate redistribute population toward older, more unequal, cohorts, and can increase national inequality. We provide calculations on the magnitude of these effects.     

20世纪80年代以来我国区域人口发展的不平衡态势及其对策

改革开放以来,由于地区经济发展的差异性、就业制度和户籍制度的改革,原本人口密度较小的中西部地区出现了大量人才和劳动力大军"挥师南下"的现象。这虽然有利于满足经济发达地区对人才和劳动力的需求,有利于提高人民的收入和生活水平,但从长远来讲,不利于落后地区经济的长远发展和国家经济发展的整体战略。为了实现全面建设小康社会的战略目标,就必须解决落后地区的人口问题,坚持区域人口的适度增长和科学有效的管理,促进我国区域人口的合理布局,使各个地区实现人口与经济、社会、资源、环境的协调发展。     

Comrade Mao Ze-dong's contribution to Marxist theory on population--in commemoration of the 60th anniversary of the birth of the Chinese Communist Party]

Is it good or bad to have a large population in China? Comrade Mao Ze-dong said "it is good and it is also bad." Our population is an asset, and we should use this asset and wisdom in our nation's "Four Modernizations" program. On the other hand we should control the population growth and reduce the resulting burden. Marxism recognizes 2 types of production, material production and human production. Both are interrelated, mutually dependent, and beneficial. Comrade Mao criticized concepts and practices that disregard the interrelationship of these 2 types of production. According to Comrade Mao both types of production should be included in the national economic plan, and the proportions of material production and human production should be the basic proportions of our socialistic economic development. Comrade Mao mentioned that population growth should be planned to fit and benefit social development. He suggested establishment of a series of family planning offices or committees to study and implement the family planning program, to develop a longterm plan, to consider the people's wishes in family planning, to meet the people's requirements and desires, to educate people about family planning, and to recommend government funds for the program.     

Theory and methods in China's population policy]

Before 1949, China's population development was noted for its high birth rate, high death rate, and low natural growth rate. After 1949, the death rate showed a large-scale decline, the birth rate was maintained at a high level, and natural growth rate also remained high. Between 1949 and 1973, the natural growth rate was kept above a 2% annual rate. Since then, the need for population control has become increasingly obvious. The theory and methods of China's population policy can be summarized in the following points: (1) material production has to keep up with the pace of population growth, and that means the quantity and quality of the population have to match athe production of materials needed for life and consumption; (2) in a Socialist society, material production and population growth have to develop with well-designed plans; (3) the population question has a direct impact on social and economic development; (4) through enforcement of a national policy, cooperation from different individuals, and ideological education, family planning will gradually be accepted by the general public for the well-being of the country.     

西方国家社会保障制度对经济发展的影响

西方国家的社会保障制度对经济发展产生了深远的影响。一方面 ,社会保障给经济发展创造了良好的环境 ,使劳动力再生产得以正常进行 ,促进了第三产业的发展 ,解决了一批人的就业问题 ,促进了经济向前发展 ;但另一方面 ,它增加了政府开支 ,导致越来越多的经济资源用于消费 ,影响了资本积累 ,出现积累基金与消费基金比例失调 ,使经济发展失去了动力 ,又阻碍了经济发展。社会保障制度的发展必须考虑经济增长的实际状况 ,使二者保持正常比例 ,才能使社会保障制度发挥应有的作用。     

Is it necessary to control the population growth of national minorities]

In the process of Socialist construction and modernization, the development of the population of national minorities deserves our attention because it is directly related to the economic and cultural development in the areas inhabited by such national minorities, and it has a great impact on the welfare and future of those people. Moreover, the population growth of the minorities is a key factor in the national population control strategy. A rapid population growth among the minorities has caused serious problems in distribution of farm land and food supply, low personal income, a rise in the unemployment rate, and a rise in the illiteracy rate. This has prevented a rise in the living standard among the minority population. In order to prevent and solve population problems among the minorities, we must take appropriate measures according to local conditions to control population increases. Through popularization of education, population growth may be put under control. For those people who volunteer to practice family planning, the government should provide all kinds of assistance. At the same time, an effort is needed to introduce the necessity of improving birth quality, to popularize new methods of child birth, and to develop health and medical care for the general public, so that the quality of the minority population may be gradually improved.     

Five recommendations for controlling population growth in China]

The rapid population growth rate (2% annually from 1949 to 1978) caused great difficulties for China's national economy because it increased the burden of families, communities, and government. It caused employment problems and slowed increases in living standards and educational levels. The best way to control population growth is based on a combination of political education and effective economic measures. The recommendations are: 1) coordinate employment, food rationing, salaries, bonuses, health treatment, age and condition of retirement, preschool care and education with family planning programs, maintain the elderly's living standard, and give preference to childless and single child families; 2) educate people about family planning and incorporate population growth and family planning into political and economics courses in high school and college; 3) incorporate population control into national economic plans; 4) prohibit families with 3 children and advocate 1 child per couple; and 5) establish a permanent population committee to plan, develop, and implement population policies and related research.     

Economic development and labor force participation of older persons

The effect of economic development on labor force participation rates of older men and women is examined using national data for 134 countries. The analysis provides new insights into the evolution of retirement patterns with rising personal income, slowing population growth, the aging of the population, and shifts in the composition of employment. The analysis indicates a negative relationship between per capita income and labor force participation rates. This relationship is stronger for older men than for older women and is most apparent among middle income countries. An older population is associated with lower participation rates for older men and higher widow rates produce higher participation rates among older women. Industrial changes such as a decline in the proportion of the labor force employed in agriculture lower the proportion of older persons in the labor force. Finally, national social security policies are shown to impact the proportion of older persons that remains in the labor force.     

A preliminary inquiry into the interrelationship between population growth and economic development in Hong Kong]

Hong Kong includes Hong Kong Island, Kowloon, New Territory, and more than 230 islands. During World War ii, the population of Hong Kong decreased sharply, and the total number decreased to less than 600,000. Since the war ended in 1945, the population of Hong Kong has been increasing rapidly at an annual rate of 20%. By the end of 1981, its total population had increased to 5.2 million, including 1.25 million newly arrived immigrants. The average age is 24.8. People above the age 65 constitute only 6% of the total population. This shows that there is a sufficient supply of labor for local economic development. Because of continued economic growth, there has been a constant demand for more labor. Low wages provide an excellent condition for high-speed industrial development. An improved quality of professional workers and management personnel also contributes much to Hong Kong's industrial modernization. Because of high employment among the labor population, the general population earns income and spends a great deal, and this has created a rather active economy. General population growth trends include: 1) continued population growth will bring the total population to 6.3 million by the end of 1981, and the housing problem will become more serious; 2) a stable decline in the natural population growth rate will gradually change the population pattern to a low birth, low death, and low natural growth situation; and 3) improvements in science and technology, health care, and living conditions will reduce the death rate, and the average age will lengthen, and with the increase in old people, the demand for social welfare will also increase; and 4) there will be a shortage in experienced labor (professional technicians and high management personnel) in the 1980s. Facing the new situation, Hong Kong's economic structure needs reform, moving from a labor intensive enterprise to a capital-technological intensive enterprise. The market will be expanded and Hong Kong will earn more profit in China's mode rnization process.     

Thinking about several problems of the research of our family planning strategy]

On the basis of 1982 census data, it is estimated that from 1987-1997 13 million women will enter the age of marriage and child-bearing each year. The tasks of keeping the population size around 1.2 billion by the year 2000 is arduous. Great efforts have to be made to continue encouraging one child/couple, and to pursue the current plans and policies and maintain strict control over fertility. Keeping population growth in pace with economic growth, environment, ecological balance, availability of per capita resources, education programs, employment capability, health services, maternal and child care, social welfare and social security should be a component of the long term development strategy of the country. Family planning is a comprehensive program which involves long cycles and complicated factors, viewpoints of expediency in guiding policy and program formulation for short term benefits are inappropriate. The emphasis of family planning program strategy should be placed on the rural areas where the majority of population reside. Specifically, the major aspects of strategic thrusts should be the linkage between policy implementation and reception, between family planning publicity and changes of ideation on fertility; the integrated urban and rural program management relating to migration and differentiation of policy towards minority population and areas in different economic development stages. In order to achieve the above strategies, several measures are proposed. (1) strengthening family planning program and organization structure; (2) providing information on population and contraception; (3) establishing family planning program network for infiltration effects; (4) using government financing, taxation, loan, social welfare and penalty to regulate fertility motivations; (5) improving the system of target allocation and data reporting to facilitate program implementation; (6) strengthening population projection and policy research; (7) and strengthening training of family planning personnel to improve program efficiency.     

俄罗斯的人口老龄化

随着社会经济的发展和科技进步,人口老龄化已经成为现代社会的必然趋势,是世界各国普遍面临的重大社会问题。俄罗斯人口转变过程开始的时间较晚,但人口老龄化速度较快,地区差异大,而且城市和农村之间存在差别,老龄化形势严峻。制定合理的、符合本国国情的社会政策能够缓解人口老龄化问题。     

我国人口就业与不同产业经济增长的实证分析

为了协调我国人口就业与不同产业经济增长的关系,对1978～2005年期间我国的人口就业与不同产业经济增长之间进行了协整分析,得出我国人口就业与第二、第三产业经济增长之间存在长期的均衡关系;同时构建模型对我国不同产业的GDP与就业人数进行了回归分析,利用我国不同产业的GDP就业弹性,比较分析了我国不同产业对就业吸纳作用的差异;以及利用得出的结论提出保持适度的经济增长,进行产业结构调整,扩大劳务输出等政策建议是缓解和扩大我国人口就业的必然途径。     

人口转变的储蓄效应和增长效应--论中国增长可持续性的人口因素

人口转变是挑战中国经济持续增长的一个重要因素.在这个过程中,个人的生命周期和代际更替之间的相互叠加,通过劳动供给、储蓄和科技进步等渠道对长期经济增长施加影响.本文分析表明,人口转变使得中国从20世纪60年代中期开始享受人口红利,并一直持续到2015年前后.为了迎接人口老龄化冲击,中国需要通过扩大就业、加快人力资本积累和建立适合于中国国情的可持续的养老保障模式三条途径来充分挖掘未来潜在的人口红利,推动中国经济持续增长.     

The Effect of Education on the Demographic Dividend

The impact of population structure on economic growth has been studied in recent decades using different methods to estimate the so‐called demographic dividend. Besides, education has been pointed out as a key factor in economic growth. We propose a decomposition of the demographic dividend, into age and education effects. We illustrate the potentialities of the method, deriving an application to Mexico and Spain over the period 1970‐2100. To that end, we estimate the National Transfer Accounts age profiles by schooling level and apply them to recently available population projections stratified by education level. Our results confirm the role of population age structure in the demographic dividend, but also reveal that education attainment can be even more crucial. Moreover, we find that how both age and education effects finally impact on economic growth depends to a great extent on the specific consumption and labor income age profiles in each country.     

中国人口转变、人口红利与经济增长的实证

我国人口年龄结构的变动使得劳动负担逐渐下降,这对于储蓄水平的上升和劳动力投入效率的提高具有显著的促进作用;我国劳动负担比与经济增长呈现出明显的负相关,劳动负担比每下降1个百分点,经济增长将提高1.06个百分点,在过去的30年里劳动负担降低累计带来的经济增长占总增长的27.23%。通过计量检验证明人口年龄结构变动所产生的促进经济增长的人口红利是存在的。由此我们推断,由于未来的人口年龄结构变动趋向人口老龄化,劳动负担逐步上升,这将会对未来的经济增长造成制约。利用未来10～20年时间较轻的劳动负担的机遇期,我们应当建立良好的教育、人力资本投资、社会保障等方面的制度以及制定积极的人口政策,调整当前生育政策、适时执行宏观经济政策(劳动就业政策)来应对已发生的、正在进行的人口变动,使我国的经济继续保持强有力的增长态势。     

人口老龄化影响区域经济发展的作用机理与路径研究

人口老龄化是21世纪人类社会共同面对的重大现实问题,它与区域经济发展之间有着必然的内在关联性,因为人口老龄化对区域经济发展中的生产和消费等环节均有重要影响。因此,本文从人口的生产属性和消费属性出发,以经济增长理论和国民收入决定理论为基础,分析了人口老龄化影响区域经济发展的作用机理和路径,从而为制定合理的区域经济发展政策和人口发展政策提供相应的理论基础和实践依据。