The uneven geography of research on “environmental migration”

Climate change and environmental hazards affect the entire world, but their interactions with—and consequences on—human migration are unevenly distributed geographically. Research on climate and migration have their own geographies which do not necessarily coincide. This paper critically confronts these two geographies by presenting the first detailed mapping of research in the field of environmentally induced migration. After a brief review of the geography of research on climate change, the paper presents an overview of nearly 50 years of case studies on the basis of CliMig, a bibliographic database of 1193 scientific papers and books on climate/environmental change and migration, among them 463 empirical case studies. We analyze the locations of these case studies, the academic affiliations of their researchers, and the origin of their funding. Mapping the locations of case studies worldwide points toward blind spots in the research and identifies “overstudied” areas. We describe the methodologies used in the studies and present a typology of environmental hazards. Our results show that research on environmental migration is mainly done in countries of the Global South, whereas climate science research in general is focused on countries of the Global North. We contend that the peculiar geography of environmental migration cannot be explained solely by the uneven vulnerability of southern populations to the environment. It must also be understood through the lens of post-colonial and securitization studies as the result of a framing of “environmental refugees” (and refugees in general) as an intrinsically “southern problem” and as a security risk for the North. This paper is an original contribution to the literature on the North-South divide in scientific research and will help to outline future directions of investigation.     

Migration and climate change: examining thresholds of change to guide effective adaptation decision-making

The implications of environmental change for migration are little understood. Migration as a response to climate change could be seen as a failure of in situ adaptation methods, or migration could be alternatively perceived as a rational component of creative adaptation to environmental risk. This paper frames migration as part of an adaptation response to climate change impacts to natural resource condition and environmental hazards. Thresholds will be reached by communities after which migration will become a vital component of an effective adaptation response. Such changes to migration patterns have the potential to undermine migration policy unless appropriate preparations are undertaken. This paper describes an approach to assist researchers to frame how climate change will influence migration by critically analysing how thresholds of fundamental change to migration patterns could be identified, primarily in relation to two case studies in Nepal and Thailand. Future policy for internal and international migration could be guided by the analysis of such thresholds of non-linear migration and resourced effectively to ensure that socio-economic and humanitarian outcomes are maximised.     

Population,Development and Global Warming: Averting the Tragedy of the Climate Commons

Carbon emissions from fossil fuel use and other human activity are predicted to cause a significant warming of the global climate, according to a growing consensus of scientists. Global warming would have substantial negative effects on the world environment and economy. Human population and economic growth continue to drive both energy use and carbon emissions. While the developed countries are the largest source of present and past emissions, developing countries are rapidly catching up. China will probably surpass the United States as the largest carbon emitter early in the next century. The global warming treaty signed in Rio in 1992 relies entirely on voluntary emission caps for developed countries and has had little or no apparent effect on emissions. Much stronger steps must be taken to avoid or lessen potential climate change. A globally determined but nationally imposed carbon tax should be adopted to internalize the future costs of carbon emissions into the present cost of fossil fuel and other carbon sources. This would allow the maximum use of free market forces and individual choice to determine how carbon emission reductions are achieved. In addition, national emission caps for all countries should be established. International trade mechanisms can be used to support universal implementation of these measures. Where possible, global warming policy should include strong but equitable incentives for sustainable development and population stabilization, important goals in themselves regardless of the extent of future climate change.     

Understanding the demographic implications of climate change: estimates of localized population predictions under future scenarios of sea-level rise

Significant advances have been made to understand the interrelationship between humans and the environment in recent years, yet research has not produced useful localized estimates that link population forecasts to environmental change. Coarse, static population estimates that have little information on projected growth or spatial variability mask substantial impacts of environmental change on especially vulnerable populations. We estimate that 20 million people in the United States will be affected by sea-level rise by 2030 in selected regions that represent a range of sociodemographic characteristics and corresponding risks of vulnerability. Our results show that the impact of sea-level rise extends beyond the directly impacted counties due to migration networks that link inland and coastal areas and their populations. Substantial rates of population growth and migration are serious considerations for developing mitigation, adaptation, and planning strategies, and for future research on the social, demographic, and political dimensions of climate change.     

Land grabbing: a preliminary quantification of economic impacts on rural livelihoods

Global demands on agricultural land are increasing due to population growth, dietary changes and the use of biofuels. Their effect on food security is to reduce humans’ ability to cope with the uncertainties of global climate change. In light of the 2008 food crisis, to secure reliable future access to sufficient agricultural land, many nations and corporations have begun purchasing large tracts of land in the global South, a phenomenon deemed “land grabbing” by popular media. Because land investors frequently export crops without providing adequate employment, this represents an effective income loss for local communities. We study 28 countries targeted by large-scale land acquisitions [comprising 87 % of reported cases and 27 million hectares (ha)] and estimate the effects of such investments on local communities’ incomes. We find that this phenomenon can potentially affect the incomes of ~12 million people globally with implications for food security, poverty levels and urbanization. While it is important to note that our study incorporates a number of assumptions and limitations, it provides a much needed initial quantification of the economic impacts of large-scale land acquisitions on rural livelihoods.     

Thresholds in climate migration

Migration in response to climatic hazards or changes in climatic conditions can unfold in a variety of ways, ranging from barely observable, incremental changes in pre-existing migration flows to abrupt, non-linear population movements. The adoption of migration instead of in situ adaptation responses, and the high degree of variability in potential migration outcomes, in part reflects the presence of thresholds or tipping points within the processes of human-environment interaction through which climate adaptation and migration take place. This article reviews and makes linkages between existing research in climate adaptation, migration system dynamics, residential preferences, and risk perception to identify and explore the functioning and importance of thresholds. Parochial examples from the author’s published research on climate adaptation and migration in rural North America are used to illustrate. Six types of thresholds in response to climate hazards are identified: (1) Adaptation becomes necessary; (2) Adaptation becomes ineffective; (3) Substantive changes in land use/livelihoods become necessary; (4) In situ adaptation fails, migration ensues; (5) Migration rates become non-linear; and (6) Migration rates cease to be non-linear. Movement across thresholds is driven by context-specific characteristics of climate events, natural systems, and/or human systems. Transition from incremental to non-linear migration can be accelerated by people’s perceptions, by actions of influential individuals or groups, and by changes in key infrastructure, services, or other community assets. Non-linear climate migration events already occur at local and sub-regional scales. The potential for global scale, non-linear population movements later this century depends heavily on future greenhouse gas emission trends. The ability to identify and avoid thresholds that tip climate migration into a non-linear state will be of growing concern to policy makers and planners at all levels in coming decades. This article forms part of a special issue of this journal dedicated to the late Graeme Hugo, and the author draws heavily on past research by Professor Hugo and colleagues.     

Climate-related migration in rural Bangladesh: a behavioural model

Research into the climate change and migration nexus has often focussed solely on how people move in response to the impacts of variability and change in climate. This notion often ignores the nature of migration as a tried and tested livelihood choice amid a variety of socio-economic and environmental opportunities and limitations. This paper closely looks at the behavioural aspects of migration decision-making in Bangladesh in the context of changes in its economy, and, increasingly, exposure to the impacts of climate variability and change. We find that villagers in areas particularly affected by increasing climatic stresses and shocks are diversifying their traditional livelihood strategies by migrating. Environmental factors, including climatic stresses and shocks, often make such shifts even more necessary. Although the migrants’ primary motivation is better income, in effect, migration becomes an effective form of adaptation. Based on a qualitative study in three geographically distinct places of Bangladesh, we propose that migration is a socially acceptable behaviour that occurs in the context of perceived environmental change and climate variability. Migration decisions are mediated by a set of ‘behavioural factors’ that assesses the efficacy of different responses to opportunities and challenges, their socio-cultural acceptance and the ability to respond successfully. This understanding has policy relevance for climate change adaptation, in terms of both how migrants are perceived and how their movements are planned for.     

Indigenous (im)mobilities in the Anthropocene

ABSTRACT

This paper explores Indigenous (im)mobilities in the Anthropocene, and their relationship to Pacific Islands climate activism. In a context where Indigenous peoples and perspectives are poorly represented in global climate politics, it is important to understand how Pacific people represent their own interests and imagine their own futures as pressures to move due to climate change take hold. We examine political action outside of formal governance spaces and processes, in order to understand how Indigenous people are challenging state-centric approaches to climate change adaptation. We do so by studying the works of Pacific activists and artists who engage with climate change. We find that *banua – an expansive concept, inclusive of people and their place, attentive to both mobility and immobility, and distributed across the Pacific Islands region – is essential for the existential security of Pacific people and central to contemporary climate activism. We find that Pacific activists/artists are challenging the status quo by invoking *banua. In doing so, they are politicising (im)mobility. These mobilisations are coalescing into an Oceanic cosmopolitanism that confronts two mutually reinforcing features of contemporary global climate politics: the subordination of Indigenous peoples, perspectives and worldviews; and the marginalisation of (im)mobility concerns within the global climate agenda.     

The effects of climate change on the geography and timing of human mobility

Human mobility over different distances and time scales has long been associated with environmental change, and the idea of climate change is now affecting movement in new ways. In this paper, we discuss three cases from the South Pacific to explain the ways anticipated climate futures are changing mobility in the present. First, we examine village relocation in response to coastal erosion and inundation in Fiji, drawing on our study of the unfolding experience of Narikoso village in Kadavu Province. In contrast to this spatially constrained process of permanent relocation, we examine the spatially extended yet temporally constrained seasonal migrant worker programme that aims to support economic development in the Pacific Islands by providing temporary work visas in Australia and New Zealand. Finally, we examine the likely effects of proposed open labour markets as a means to promote climate change adaptation, through a study of the analogous example of Niuean migration to New Zealand which has resulted in both permanent migration and a slow circulation of people between both countries. Across these examples, we highlight emerging and potentially constructive ways in which climate change is altering the spatio-temporal patterns and rhythms of mobility.     

工作转换对农民工职业流动的影响效应

农民工就业流动频繁已经成为当前劳动力市场的普遍现象和重要特征,而工作转换能否带来农民工职业向上流动,实现职业地位提升？文章采用RUMIC面板数据,进一步估计工作转换对农民工职业流动方向的影响。结果发现：工作转换对职业流动产生显著负效应,工作转换导致农民工职业向下流动,职业流动没有呈现“U”型特征,但存在一定的跨期效应,重新定义工作转换进行稳健性检验仍然支持这一结论。而从根本上消除劳动力市场的制度壁垒,强化农民工职业技能培训,无疑是未来劳动力市场政策调整的主要方向。     

Report of the Global Commission on International Migration

In December 2003, “acting on the encouragement of UN Secretary‐General Kofi Annan,” the Global Commission on International Migration was established as an independent body, consisting of 19 Commissioners co‐chaired by Jan O. Carlsson, former Minister for Migration and Development, Sweden, and Mamphela Ramphele, formerly the World Bank's Managing Director, from South Africa. The mandate of the Commission was to “provide the framework for the formulation of a coherent, comprehensive and global response to the issue of international migration.” The work of the Commission was assisted by a Geneva‐based Secretariat and a “Core Group of States,” eventually including 32 governments from all world regions, that acted as an informal consultative body to the Commission. (The United States, the most important host country to immigrants, was not among the 32.) In October 2005, in New York, the Commission presented its Report to Kofi Annan, the UN member states, and other interested bodies. The Report is also intended as an input to intergovernmental discussion of international migration issues at the UN General Assembly in the Fall of 2006. The Report, an 88‐page document, is accessible at « http://www.gcim.org ». That web site also provides access to extensive background materials on selected topics concerning international migration, regional studies of international migration prepared for the Commission, and reports of the regional hearings, consultations with “stakeholders,” and expert meetings held by the Commission. Reproduced below are three sections of the Report: its Introduction (titled “Dimensions and dynamics of international migration”) and two of its four Annexes: “Principles for Action and Recommendations,” and a compendium of data: “Migration at a glance.” Under the impact of globalization, international migration, long an important element of demographic change as experienced by individual states, has acquired increasing salience in international relations and in domestic politics. National sovereignty in deciding about immigration policy (probably the key determinant of contemporary international migration flows) remains an established principle in international law, subject only to treaty obligations to admit bonafide refugees. Increasingly in recent years, however, demands have surfaced to treat such policies as matters to be decided bilaterally between sending and receiving countries, or even to be regulated by an international or supranational body. (For earlier voices discussing this topic see the Archives section of this issue and the Archives section of the December 1983 issue of PDR:“On the international control of migration.”) Unexpectedly to some observers, the Report of the Global Commission fell short of recommending establishment of a new, WTO‐like, international organization within the UN system with responsibility for international migration. It recommends, instead, steps to be taken toward an Inter‐agency Global Migration Facility. Whether or not such arrangements will materialize and be influential, the Commission clearly sees international migration flows, primarily from less developed to more developed countries, as increasing in the future. While not quantified, this vision contrasts with the assumptions incorporated in the often‐cited projections of the UN Population Division, which envisage future net migratory flows as either constant in size or even decreasing. The Report's argument rests primarily on the perceived economic benefits of migration to both receiving and sending countries, fueled by persisting income differentials and by contrasting demographic configurations between migrants' places of origin and destination. It gives short shrift to arguments that question the economic gains of mass migration to receiving countries, or that see such gains at best as minor and likely to be counterbalanced by noneconomic considerations. Nor does the Report gauge the likelihood that heeding its strictures for a more welcoming treatment of migrants would increase the incentives to migrate.     

Environmental change and migration: methodological considerations from ground-breaking global survey

In recent years, policy makers and scientists have become interested in the dynamic links between migration and environmental change (Döös in Global Environ Change 7(1):41–61, 1997; Adger et al. in Living with Environmental Change: Social vulnerability, adaptation and resilience in Vietnam, 2001; Gunderson and Holling in Panarchy—understanding transformations in systems of humans and nature, Island Press, Washington, DC, Gunderson and Holling 2002; Scoones et al. in Dynamic systems and the challenge of sustainability, 2007; Galaz et al. in Ecosystems under pressure. A policy brief for the International Commission on Climate Change and Development, 2008). Recently, scoping activities have emerged to produce empirical observations about the role of environmental change in decisions about human mobility, including a range of movements from voluntary to forced migration and displacement. One notable recent attempt to contribute to the base of knowledge about the links between environmental change and migration has been the European Commission co-sponsored the Environmental Change and Forced Scenarios (EACH-FOR) project. The EACH-FOR project was created to assess the impact of environmental change on migration at the local, national, regional and international level. This paper shares the methods and fieldwork experiences of a first-time, multicontinent survey of environmental change and migration from the research project supported by the European Commission: Environmental Change and Forced Migration Scenarios (EACH-FOR, Contract Number 044468, http://www.each-for.eu). This paper has three purposes. First, the authors explore issues related to how EACH-FOR designed its methodological approach for the first global survey of environmental change and migration. The paper then describes how the project attempted to create a method that would produce comparable results in a challenging context of multiple scientific challenges and trade-offs for research design. The second purpose of this paper is to examine how field researchers implemented and used this methodology in the EACH-FOR project. This paper takes a closer look at the fieldwork approach applied in investigating the 23 EACH-FOR project case studies. These case studies presented diverse local conditions and social contexts and different types of environmental changes. The paper discusses some of the practical considerations and shortcomings of the method in practice and illustrates how local researchers from selected case studies managed the challenges of their complex assignment. The third purpose of this paper is to explore lessons learned from the initial fieldwork experience and fruitful directions for future research.     

Bringing Society Back into the Climate Debate

Debate over climate change focuses narrowly on the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. A common justification for such emissions reductions is that they will lead to a reduction in the future impacts of climate on society. But research from social scientists and others who study environment–society interactions clearly indicates that the dominant factors shaping the impacts of climate on society are societal. A greater appreciation for this body of research would allow for consideration of a broader base of policy options to respond to the challenges of climate change, as well as the composition of climate research portfolios more likely to contribute useful knowledge to decision makers.     

Household access to capital and its effects on drought adaptation and migration: a case study of rural Alberta in the 1930s

This article reports findings from an empirical study of the impacts of drought on rural households in southeastern Alberta, Canada during the 1930s. In that decade, extreme summer heat conditions and low precipitation levels led to repeated crop failures. These extreme climatic conditions coincided with economic recession, falling commodity prices, and rising unemployment to create widespread hardship and suffering across the rural population. Thousands of households adapted by leaving the drought-stricken region and migrating to more northerly regions unaffected by drought, often suffering still further hardship as they reestablished themselves in a new environment. Through secondary research of historical documents and interviews with surviving migrants and non-migrants, this study identifies how economic, human, and social capital influenced the adaptive capacity, adaptation decisions, and migration behavior of rural households and describes how institutional responses affected household adaptation. Differential access to capital in its various forms was a key factor that distinguished households that adapted via migration from those that did not. The findings from this study of historical environment-related population change provide insights that enhance our broader understanding of potential future migration responses to the impacts of anthropogenic climate change and important considerations for policy-makers and planners seeking to build adaptive capacity in rural populations.     

Demographic change and the needs-based planning of government services: projecting small area populations using spatial microsimulation

Changing patterns of longevity, fertility and migration in Australia have driven substantial changes in population age structure and household size and composition. Of the various dimensions of population change, population ageing is expected to present major challenges to the financing and sustainability of welfare state programs in industrialized countries. One key issue for many of these countries will be assessing where particular services will be required in the future. This paper outlines the application of new forecasting techniques that age a spatial microdataset to 2027. Two illustrative examples are provided to highlight the potential capacities of the new modelling approach for government service delivery planners. For many older people, ageing in place is important, but is more difficult when the person is single: and so the first illustrative application focuses on where aged single people will be living in 2027. The second application examines where future childcare places will be required given the projected growth in the number of children aged 3–4 years living in families where all parents are working. This information will be important for Government planners in deciding the best location for childcare places. The creation of synthetic small-area household microdata for future years offers great potential for a number of purposes, such as analysis of the likely future sociodemographic characteristics of individuals and families at the local level and assessment of the future geographic effect of alternative scenarios such as changes in labour force participation or fertility rates.     

Replacement Migration: A Questionable Tactic for Delaying the Inevitable Effects of Fertility Transition

This article critiques a recent U.N. Population Division report, Replacement Migration: Is it a Solution to Declining and Ageing Populations? The report explores the use of increased immigration to bolster future population size and change age distribution patterns in a group of developed countries. Fertility rate declines and lengthening life expectancies associated with demographic transition inevitably yield an aging population and a falling potential support ratio (PSR), a situation which some demographers and economists view with alarm. As the U.N. report itself suggests, replacement migration can only temporarily delay population aging and decline. These issues are ultimately better addressed through changes in retirement policy. Population projections should be used only with great caution in designing long-term demographic policy. In particular, some assumptions used to make the U.N. projections are questionable, and even minor changes in those assumptions would yield substantially different policy conclusions. Replacement migration also raises difficult environmental questions by moving large numbers of people from low to high per-capita consumption nations. Modest population decline, particularly in more developed countries, may have significant local and global environmental and climate policy benefits.

     

气候变化对宁夏生态脆弱地区农牧民生计的影响及适应策略

气候变化对人类生产生活的影响随地区和人群的不同而不同,其中对生态脆弱地区的贫困人群影响尤为特殊。本文以受干旱影响的典型区域一宁夏生态脆弱地区农牧民生计为例．试图通过对宁夏回族自治区5个县／市／区294户农牧家庭开展的问卷调查和访谈研究．分析气候变化对当地农牧民生产、生活和生存状况的具体影响内容及影响的程度．探讨农牧民应对气候变化的主要的生计适应措施。结果显示农牧民心理上的自我调适是人们在脆弱的状态下应对气候变化的前提,并通过多样化的生计方式、外出务工、自主性迁移等自适应方式来适应气候变化对农牧民生计带来的种种影响．同时生态脆弱地区气候变化的应对也离不开政府大环境背景下的制度设计和政策支持。     

Care moves people: complex systems and futures signals supporting production and reflection of individual mobile utopias

ABSTRACT

Futures of mobility are a pressing concern for cities addressing sustainability and climate change challenges. As cities renew their mobility systems and launch efforts to meet these targets, new sensitive qualitative methodologies are needed. This article discusses a focused mobility diary experiment that was conducted in May 2017 in Turku, Finland and its subarea, with a small set of participants. The goal of this study was to gain insights into potential developments in the city’s mobility systems and practices. This article utilises a multidisciplinary complex systems approach describing how we used the concepts of futures signals and mobile utopias as tools when analysing some prefigurative patterns in individual mobility practices. A key outcome of this methodological experimentation was the interconnections made between two research traditions and a notion of the various ways care underlies, effects, and contours the mobility practices of people–in other words, people are moved by care. This article demonstrates how with the concepts of futures signals, and mobilised utopias, we can reach the important aspirational and prefigurative practices and motivations of people, which permit us to interpret potential futures in particular urban settings characterised by daily life activities.     

Seasonal and weather-related behavioral effects among urban Aboriginal, urban non-Aboriginal, and remote Aboriginal participants in Canada

The influence of seasonal change and weather on mood, social activity, weight, food consumption, and sleep length was compared across urban Aboriginals (n = 43), urban non-Aboriginals (n = 49), and remote Aboriginals (n = 39) in Ontario, Canada. Such research is important since climate change may differentially shape the well-being of social groups. Behavioral items—including mood, social activity, weight, sleep, and food consumption—were measured using the Seasonal Pattern Assessment Questionnaire, and associations between these items and meteorological data were examined with bivariate and multivariate approaches. Weather variables had consistent, significant associations with behavior except within the remote Aboriginal group despite living in a more extreme climate. Lifestyle and adaptation may contribute to an increased weather tolerance among remote Aboriginal people, intriguing findings as cultures grapple with the implications of future climate change.     

Climate change and population migration in Brazil’s Northeast: scenarios for 2025–2050

This research contributes to an understanding of the relationship between climate change, economic impacts and migration. We model the long-term relationship (up to 45 years of projection) between demographic dynamics—particularly migration—driven by changes in the performance of the economy due to climate changes in the Northeast region of Brazil. The region is of particular relevance to the study of climate change impacts given its large human population (28% of Brazil’s population) and high levels of impoverishment, having an extensive semi-dry area which will be severely impacted by growing temperatures. Ultimately, the integrated model generates state- and municipal-level migration scenarios based on climate change impacts on the primary economic sectors and their articulations with other sectors. Results suggest that the predicted climate changes will impact severely the agriculture sector in the region, acting as a potential migration push factor to other regions in the country. Finally, we discuss how the increased vulnerability of some groups, particularly migrants, can be factored into Brazilian public policy and planning.