健康风险冲击下的农户收入能力与村级民主

文章基于中国8个省份、1354个农户、跨度15年的微观面板数据,测算了大病冲击对于农户长期收入的影响以及村级民主对缓解农户健康风险的作用。结果发现:(1)大病冲击在随后的12年周期上对农户人均纯收入都有显著的负面影响;(2)大病冲击对农户的短期与中期影响使得患病户人均纯收入平均降低13.2%;长期的影响可持续大约24年,并且对贫困农户的影响更为深远;(3)在健康风险管理方面,村级民主对于减轻大病借款倾向和因病负债时间有显著的正面影响,村级选举产生的缓解作用相当于农户人均收入大约5%的水平,并且使得大病冲击持续时间减少3年。     

社区老年人主观幸福感现状及影响因素分析

本文采用多阶段抽样的方法,抽取长春市9个社区的1 302名60岁及以上的常住老年人进行问卷调查,研究社区老年人主观幸福感的现状及其影响因素。结果显示,长春市社区老年人主观幸福感平均分为35.78±8.81分,主观幸福感水平较高的老年人占55.0%,主观幸福感水平处于中等的老年人占43.8%,主观幸福感水平较低的老年人占1.2%。多重线性回归分析结果显示,社会支持、抑郁、焦虑、婚姻状况、健康自评与学历是老年人的主观幸福感水平的影响因素。     

贫困脆弱性对农村居民主观幸福感的影响——基于CFPS数据的实证分析

实现共同富裕的落脚点在于提高人民群众的幸福感,其中最艰巨最繁重的任务在农村。现阶段我国农村居民的整体幸福感水平仍还有较大的增进空间,与此同时,农村居民也面临着较高的在未来陷入相对贫困的风险,其面临的这种风险是否是制约幸福感进一步提升的因素？对这一问题的研究对探索增进我国农村居民幸福感的路径具有必要性。文章基于北京大学中国家庭追踪调查（CFPS）2014年和2018年面板数据,对我国农村居民的贫困脆弱性与其主观幸福感之间的关系进行了实证分析,并具体探讨了其中的作用路径与作用机制。研究发现：（1）以收入相对贫困标准测度得到的农村居民贫困脆弱性仍较高,且其与个体的主观幸福感之间存在显著的负向关系,即个体的贫困脆弱性程度越高,其主观幸福感水平越低。这一结论在进行一系列稳健性检验后依旧成立。（2）异质性分析发现,处在中西部地区的居民以及男性居民贫困脆弱性的主观幸福感降低效应更为严重。（3）作用路径分析发现,贫困脆弱性的幸福感降低效应主要是由风险脆弱性,即个体应对风险能力的欠缺所导致的。作用机制分析发现,农村居民主观社会地位的提高、社会信任程度的增加以及对未来信心的增强均能够有效缓解贫困脆弱性对个...     

农村民间借贷对农户家庭福利的影响效应——基于新疆的经验分析

基于新疆农户家庭微观调研数据,选用倾向得分匹配法,构建农村民间贷款方放贷行为的平均处理效应(ATE)、处理组的平均处理效应(ATT)以及控制组的平均处理效应(ATU)模型,估计农村民间贷款方的放贷行为对新疆农户家庭纯收入、家庭生活消费支出及家庭生产经营投资的影响效应,并通过平衡性检验及稳健性检验验证了估计结果的可靠性.研究结果表明:所有样本农户的家庭纯收入、家庭生活消费支出及家庭生产经营投资均不同程度受到了农村民间贷款方放贷行为的影响,其中,农村民间贷款方的放贷行为在1%水平上显著促使农户家庭生活消费支出平均增加0.329万元,在5%水平上显著使得农户家庭纯收入和家庭生产经营投资分别平均减少1.454万元、0.126万元,说明农村民间贷款方的放贷行为促进了农户家庭生活消费,同时又抑制了农村家庭纯收入及家庭生产经营投资行为,最后根据实证研究结论提出了提升新疆农村民间借贷对农户家庭正向驱动效应的政策启示.     

家庭规模、社会支持、健康状况对农村老年女性主观幸福感的影响研究CSSCI

社会经济发展使农村家庭呈现出规模小型化、结构核心化、居住离散化的趋势,农村家庭养老功能随之弱化,农村老年人口特别是农村老年女性的主观幸福感呈现下降趋势。文章应用2015年CGSS调查数据和结构方程模型研究了家庭规模、社会支持和健康状况对农村老年女性主观幸福感的影响机制,结果表明,家庭规模通过影响社会支持对农村老年女性主观幸福感产生间接效应;社会支持对农村老年女性主观幸福感具有直接影响,表现为社会支持力度越大,农村老年女性主观幸福感越高,同时社会支持还通过影响健康状况对农村老年女性主观幸福感产生间接效应;健康状况对农村老年女性主观幸福感既具有直接影响又具有间接影响,直接影响表现为健康状况越好,主观幸福感越高,间接影响表现为通过影响家庭规模间接影响农村老年女性主观幸福感。     

性别差异视角下的流动人口迁移距离及其影响因素 ——基于对上海流动人口的分析

通过对流动人口迁移距离性别差异的考察发现:(1)女性流动人口的平均迁移距离长于男性23.1千米,个体因素、迁移特征、经济社会因素对男性、女性流动人口的迁移距离存在着不同方向和不同程度的影响。少数民族和农村户籍的女性流动人口的迁移距离明显长于男性。(2)随受教育程度的提高,女性迁移距离不断增加,初中、高中、大学和研究生学历的女性流动人口的迁移距离分别增加0.062、0.058、0.098和0.170个单位。(3)女性流动人口的迁移受到距离的阻抗作用强度弱于男性,距离每增加1%,流入的女性流动人口规模降低1.090%,而男性为1.275%。(4)引入经济发展差距(GDP)和收入差距变量后,各变量的影响程度和方向发生变化,女性表现出学历、收入水平越高迁移得越远的特征。     

教育质量与西部农村孩子辍学率:云南省的经验证据

文章基于云南省1422个农户的微观数据,利用生存函数模型测算了西部农村基础教育质量对孩子辍学率的影响。结果显示,学校的规模和师资充足对减少学生辍学的风险有显著影响;以班主任学历表示的教师和学校质量水平对于降低孩子辍学率也有重要的影响,并且这种影响存在于基础教育的各个阶段;女孩辍学风险高于男孩,差距在初中阶段开始拉大。父母受教育程度的提高对于降低孩子辍学率具有显著的正向影响,尤其是母亲的作用更大。     

教育水平、教育回报与居民主观幸福感——基于CGSS2018数据的实证研究

作为人力资本积累和社会发展的重要力量,教育会影响居民幸福。文章基于中国综合社会调查（CGSS）2018年微观数据,采用有序Probit模型,实证研究教育水平和教育回报对居民主观幸福感的影响,并运用多重中介效应模型考察教育回报在教育水平影响居民主观幸福感中的中介作用。结果表明：教育水平和教育回报均对居民总体的主观幸福感具有显著的正向影响,使用工具变量法解决内生性问题以及稳健性检验后,结论依然一致。分群来看,教育水平提升会显著增加教育程度较低、农村户口、男性三类群体的主观幸福感;收入提高能够显著强化教育程度较低、城市户口及男性居民的幸福体验;而社会交往则会促进所有群体主观幸福感的明显提升。就中介效应而言,教育的物质和非物质回报在教育水平影响居民幸福中的中介作用均较为显著,不过相较于社会交往,收入的中介作用更为明显。另外,研究也发现,教育水平对居民主观幸福感的影响以直接效应为主,中介效应目前尚不及直接效应三分之一水平。因而,为进一步发挥教育在增进居民幸福中的积极作用,应继续全方位大力发展教育,并着力破解教育机会不均问题,以使提高教育水平成为全体居民实现收入改善、阶层跃迁以及幸福提升的有效路径...     

中国老年人主观幸福感研究:缘起、现状与方向

文章对国内三十年来关于老年人主观幸福感研究的成果进行了系统的梳理。首先梳理了老年人主观幸福感研究的测量、研究领域、研究对象、数据来源和研究方法;接着重点梳理了主观幸福感的影响因素,主要包括人口学因素、社会因素、子女因素、经济因素、人格因素及其他因素等;最后指出已有研究的不足及未来研究应加强的几个方面。本研究旨在对以往研究进行梳理和评述,以期对后续深入研究提供借鉴。     

三孩政策下托育服务可及性与生育释放效应

面对日趋严峻的生育形势，我国渐进式地放开了二孩、三孩生育数量限制并采取了一系列生育支持政策。在三孩政策的背景下，探究以托育服务为代表的生育支持政策如何影响生育意愿对我国生育政策的调整具有重要意义。本文利用2021年湖北省托育机构普查数据与第三期“湖北百县生育调查”数据，从托育机构的类型、招生规模、师资力量、经营投资等方面综合分析托育服务发展的现状；基于多维视角，通过托育服务的规模、密度、普惠和质量四个维度构造托育服务可及性指数，重点研究托育服务可及性对城乡家庭生育意愿的影响效应。托育机构普查结果显示：湖北省现有托育机构2 167家，每百婴儿托位数为6.53个，每百平方公里托育机构数为4.59个，生均月收费占居民月人均可支配收入的68.08%，仅有18.3%的托育机构提供多样化的托育服务。回归结果显示：托育服务可及性的增强显著提升了城乡家庭的生育意愿；托育服务可及性指数每提高1个百分点，城乡家庭有二孩生育意愿的概率增加20.3%，有三孩生育意愿的概率增加7.1%。进一步研究发现托育服务普惠和空间可及性的增强可以显著提升城乡家庭的生育意愿，尤其是二孩生育意愿；托育机构数量的增加既能提升城乡...     

二元制度下中国农村剩余劳动力自发流动模型的建立及其政策含义

本文利用人力资本投资的理论,建立了一个二元制度背景下的中国农村劳动力自发流动模型,指出影响农民做出外出务工决策的主要因素是其流入城市的净收益现值,并对决定这一现值的各变量进行了考察。作者认为二元的经济和社会体制降低了农民的流动和迁移意愿,限制了农民的外出。最后作者提出了短期内促进农民工流动和长期内保证农民迁移的政策建议。     

农村人力资源能力建设的战略分析

农村人力资源能力建设是我国人力资源能力建设的根本和重点。农村人力资源能力建设的根本目的是提高农民的竞争能力,而竞争能力包括人文能力、创新能力和适应能力。在人力资源能力建设中,通过制度创新推动模式、产业分化驱动模式、素质教育促进模式和城镇化诱导模式来加以实现。     

The Cost of Disability in China

We describe the degree to which household income is negatively associated with the prevalence of different types of disability (i.e., medical impairments) in China using data from the 2006 Second National Survey of Disabled Persons. We then calculate the extra costs of disability across different types of households and show how these costs differ by the type and severity of disability in both urban and rural areas. Finally, we use nationally representative panel data on persons with disabilities from 2007 to 2009 to examine the degree to which social security is reaching persons with different types and severity of disabilities in both urban and rural areas. We conclude that although the amount and coverage of social security for households with disabilities is increasing rapidly, it is still not enough to offset the income differential between households with and without disabled persons, especially when we account for the extra costs of disability.     

农村劳动力过量转移的原因和对策——以鲁庄为例

在对鲁庄剩余劳动力转移状况调查的基础上,文章指出鲁庄剩余劳动力转移已经过量,威胁到农村和农业的发展。文章认为农民负担过重、积累能力低下、恶劣的竞争地位是过量转移的原因,在此基础上文章指出增加对农村资本投入、对乡村治理体制进行改革,减轻农民负担、促进农民的组织化是解决过量转移问题的政策性选择。     

Revisiting the hierarchy of urban areas in the Brazilian Amazon: a multilevel approach

The Legal Brazilian Amazon, while the largest rainforest in the world, is also a region where most residents are urban. Despite close linkages between rural and urban processes in the region, rural areas have been the predominant focus of Amazon-based population-environment scholarship. Offering a focus on urban areas within the Brazilian Amazon, this paper examines the emergence of urban hierarchies within the region. Using a combination of nationally representative data and community based surveys, applied to a multivariate cluster methodology (Grade of Membership), we observe the emergence of sub-regional urban networks characterized by economic and political inter-dependency, population movement, and provision of services. These networks link rural areas, small towns, and medium and large cities. We also identify the emergence of medium-size cities as important nodes at a sub-regional level. In all, the work provides insight on the proposed model of ‘disarticulated urbanization’ within the Amazon by calling attention to the increasing role of regional and sub-regional urban networks in shaping the future expansion of land use and population distribution in the Amazon. We conclude with a discussion of implications for increasing intra-regional connectivity and fragmentation of conservation areas and ecosystems in the region.     

Who moves and who stays? Rural out-migration in Nigeria

Data from the nationally representative 1993 Migration and Urbanization Survey of Nigeria are used to simultaneously examine the patterns of rural-rural and rural-urban migration in Nigeria. A multinomial logistic regression model predicts the independent and collective association between individual, household, and regional variables and migration from rural areas to rural and urban destinations. Associations between education, religion and ethnicity and migration propensities exist at the national level. The Kanuri-Shua Arabs are generally non-migrants, the Hausa-Fulani and Yoruba are predominantly rural-rural migrants and the Igbo-Ibibio and Urhobo-Isoko-Edo are predominantly ruralurban migrants. Christians are significantly more mobile than Muslims. While the highly educated are most likely to choose an urban destination, a significant proportion migrate to other rural areas. Concern over population concentration is not supported, as rural migrants move to all regions and to urban and rural areas.     

Contextualizing Mexican Migrant Education Selectivity

The debate on whether Mexican immigrants are positively or negatively selected on education has been limited by studying immigrants in data collected only from the sending or the destination country. Using nationally representative data from Mexico that tracked migrants to the United States prospectively, we examine the education selectivity of Mexicans who immigrated to the United States from 2002 to 2005. We find that using reports of migration by remaining household members and proxy substitution of migration education underestimates migrant selectivity. Migrant men and women were positively selected within households and rural municipalities of origin but negatively selected from the national educational distribution. Differences in selectivity by size of place, as well as when considering the local or national context, means that the answer of whether immigrants are positively or negatively selected on education depends on the context considered.     

中国老年人带残预期寿命及疾病影响的城乡差异分析

为了明确各种疾病对我国城乡老年人残疾以及带残预期寿命的影响,本文基于第二次全国残疾人抽样调查数据,首先对残疾现患率进行归因分析,得到分疾病的残疾现患率,然后结合死亡率数据,利用苏利文方法计算分疾病的带残预期寿命。结果显示,在60岁时,城市男性预期将有4.08年(城市女性:4.95年)生活在残疾状态中,低于农村男性的4.72年(农村女性:5.46年)。老年性耳聋、白内障、脑血管疾病、骨关节炎和未分类的伤害是老年人的最重要的5种致残疾病。而且,各种疾病对老年人的残疾现患率和带残预期寿命的影响存在明显的城乡差异。本研究为政府在城乡老年人中提出具有针对性的残疾预防战略提供了实证支持。     

Son preference, use of maternal health care, and infant mortality in rural China, 1989-2000

This study assesses the effects of socio-economic conditions and the interaction between son preference and China's one-child family planning policy on the use of maternal health care services and their effects on infant mortality in rural China, using nationally representative data from the 2001 National Family Planning and Reproductive Health Survey. The results show that while the use of maternal health care services has continued to increase over time, large gaps still exist in the use of these services and in infant survival by mother's education, community income, and parity. Further improvements in the reproductive health of all women and in infant survival will require effective reduction of the obstacles to the use of maternal health care among those women in rural China who are less educated, poor, and of higher parity.     

Do Health Insurance and Residence Pattern the Likelihood of Tubal Sterilization among American Women?

American women have increasingly opted for tubal sterilization or tubal ligation surgery in recent decades. While research has begun to examine the unequal access to health care in the United States, little research has considered how this may impact whether women opt for a tubal ligation surgery. We first profile women with and without tubal ligations using bivariate analysis of the most recent data available, a nationally representative sample of 7,643 women from the National Survey of Family Growth, Cycle 6 (NSFG, Public use data file, 2002). We then use logistic regression models to examine the relationship between having tubal ligation and two focal variables: (1) type of health insurance (Medicaid compared with private, government or military, and no health insurance), and (2) rural or urban place of residence. We find that women on Medicaid are nearly twice as likely to have had a tubal sterilization compared with women who have private health insurance coverage. Also, women on Medicaid are substantially more likely to have a tubal sterilization than women with government or military insurance and women with no health insurance (26% and 36%, respectively). Further, we find that women living in rural areas are nearly twice as likely to have a tubal sterilization, compared with women in urban or suburban areas, all else being equal.