Viewing the future through a warped lens: Why uncertainty generates hyperbolic discounting

A large body of experimental research has demonstrated that, on average, people violate the axioms of expected utility theory as well as of discounted utility theory. In particular, aggregate behavior is best characterized by probability distortions and hyperbolic discounting. But is it the same people who are prone to these behaviors? Based on an experiment with salient monetary incentives we demonstrate that there is a strong and significant relationship between greater departures from linear probability weighting and the degree of decreasing discount rates at the level of individual behavior. We argue that this relationship can be rationalized by the uncertainty inherent in any future event, linking discounting behavior directly to risk preferences. Consequently, decreasing discount rates may be generated by people’s proneness to probability distortions.     

Temporal discounting of gains and losses of time: An experimental investigation

This paper investigates “asymmetries” between non-monetary gains and losses in intertemporal choice. We considered gains and losses of spare/working time with respect to a reference duration defined in a working contract. Specifically, we elicited a behavioral model of intertemporal choice that accounts for a gain/loss-dependent discounting function and a reference-dependent utility. Additionally, we did not impose preference for the present (positive discounting) and allowed for both decreasing and increasing impatience. While our results are standard regarding the discount of money (our baseline treatment), our subjects heavily discounted gains of time. More patience was observed for losses of time and a sizable portion of subjects even exhibited negative discounting, i.e. they preferred to expedite losses of time. Our econometric estimations also reveal a much larger heterogeneity of behavior in terms of both utility and discounting for gains and losses of spare time as compared to money.     

Heterogeneous risk and time preferences

Assessing individuals’ time and risk preferences is crucial in domains such as health-related decisions (e.g., dieting, addictions), environmentally-friendly practices, and saving opportunities. We propose a new method to jointly elicit and estimate risk attitudes and intertemporal choices. We use a novel individual level estimation procedure based on a hierarchical Bayes methodology, which can integrate different functional forms for discounting and risk attitudes. This method provides individual level estimates, and allows us to explore the heterogeneity in the data. In addition, we report a negative correlation between risk and time preferences, implying that risk-seeking individuals are less patient and less willing to defer consumption.     

Discount rates and risky sexual behaviors among teenagers and young adults

This article examines the relationship between personal discount rates and sexual behaviors in a sample of teenagers and young adults. We find that higher discount rates (an indication of less willingness to forego current consumption for future consumption) are significantly associated with a range of sexual behaviors, including ever having sex, having sex before age 16 years, and past or current pregnancy. These associations are consistent with previous studies showing a link between discounting and other, non-sexual health behaviors. JEL Classification D80 · D90 · I10     

Moderators of the Relation between Shyness and Behavior with Peers: Cortisol Dysregulation and Maternal Emotion Socialization

This study investigated the relations among shyness, physiological dysregulation, and maternal emotion socialization in predicting children's social behavior with peers during the kindergarten year (N = 66; 29 girls). For shy children, interactions with peers represent potential stressors that can elicit negative emotion and physiological reactions. Behavior during these contexts can be viewed as adaptive (e.g., playing alone) or maladaptive (e.g., watching other children play without joining in) attempts to regulate the ensuing distress. Whether shy children employ adaptive or maladaptive regulatory behaviors was expected to depend on two aspects of emotion regulatory skill: (1) children's physiological regulation, and (2) maternal emotion socialization. Findings supported the hypotheses. Specifically, shy children with poorer cortisol regulation or have mothers who endorsed a higher level of non‐supportive emotion reactions engaged in more maladaptive play behaviors whereas shy children with better cortisol regulation or a high level of supportive maternal emotion reactions engaged in more adaptive play behaviors.     

Evaluating Time Streams of Income: Discounting What?

For decisions whose consequences accrue over time, there are several possible techniques to compute total utility. One is to discount utilities of future consequences at some appropriate rate. The second is to discount per-period certainty equivalents. And the third is to compute net present values (NPVs) of various possible streams and to then apply the utility function to these net present values. We find that the best approach is to first compute NPVs of various possible income streams and then take the utility of such NPVs. We show the drawbacks of other alternative models of evaluating income streams. The article discusses the advantages of the power and logarithmic forms in the modeling of time preference. These are the only forms for which utility of income and utility of consumption are strategically equivalent. Further, these forms permit the flexibility in the choice of a time period (e.g., monthly or quarterly) without modifying the utility function, thus simplifying analysis.     

Avoiding the curves: Direct elicitation of time preferences

We propose and test a new method for eliciting curvature-controlled discount rates that are invariant to the form of the utility function. Our method uses a single elicitation task and obtains individual discount rates without knowledge of risk attitude or parametric assumptions about the form of the utility function. We compare our method to a double elicitation technique in which the utility function and discount rate are jointly estimated. Our experiment shows that these methods yield consistent estimates of the discount rate, which is reassuring given the wide range of estimates in the literature. We find little evidence of probability weighting, but in a second experiment, we observe that discount rates are sensitive to the length of the front-end delay, suggesting present bias. When the front-end delay is at least two weeks, we estimate average discount rates to be 11.3 and 12.2% in the two experiments.     

How do journalists leverage Twitter? Expressive and consumptive use of Twitter

This study examined factors that affect journalists’ Twitter use behaviors based on the framework of the theory of planned behavior (TPB). A survey of Korean journalists supported that TPB is a useful theoretical framework for understanding journalists’ Twitter use behaviors. This study found that three TPB variables – positive attitudes, subjective norm, and perceived behavioral control – are positively associated with journalists’ general Twitter use (i.e., time spent using Twitter). More importantly, beyond looking at journalists’ general Twitter use, this study expands the literature by distinguishing between expressive Twitter use (e.g., tweeting messages) and consumptive Twitter use (e.g., reading others’ tweets). Results showed that journalists’ attitudes, subjective norms, and perceived behavioral controls were associated differently depending on patterns of expressive and consumptive Twitter usage. Given the role of professional journalists in society, their ways of using Twitter may have a profound impact on the ecology of journalism. Contributing to the literature of the theory of planned behavior by extending its explanatory power to professional journalists’ Twitter usage, the results of this study suggest that future research on journalists’ Twitter use should pay more attention to how Twitter is employed within the journalistic context.     

Reciprocal Relations across Time between Basic Values and Value‐expressive Behaviors: A Longitudinal Study among Children

The current study examines the reciprocal relations between children's values and value‐expressive behavior over a sixth‐month period. Three hundred and ten sixth‐grade students in Italy completed value and value‐expressive behavior questionnaires three times in three‐month intervals during the scholastic year. We assessed Schwartz's (1992) higher‐order values of conservation, openness to change, self‐enhancement, and self‐transcendence, as well as their respective expressive behaviors. Reciprocal relations over time between values and behaviors were examined using a cross‐lagged longitudinal design. Results showed that values and behaviors had reciprocal longitudinal effects on one another, after the stability of the variables was taken into account (i.e., values predicted change in behaviors, but also behaviors predicted change in values). Our findings also revealed that: (1) values were more stable over time than behaviors and (2) the longitudinal effect of values on behaviors tended to be stronger than the longitudinal effect of behaviors on values. Findings are discussed in light of the recent developmental literature on value change.     

A new test of convexity–concavity of discount function

Discounted utility theory and its generalizations (e.g., quasihyperbolic discounting, generalized hyperbolic discounting) use discount functions for weighting utilities of outcomes received in different time periods. We propose a new simple test of convexity–concavity of discount function. This test can be used with any utility function (which can be linear or not) and any preferences over risky lotteries (expected utility theory or not). The data from a controlled laboratory experiment show that about one third of experimental subjects reveal a concave discount function and another one third of subjects reveal a convex discount function (for delays up to two month).

     

Internalizing and externalizing problems and parenting: Results from a Saudi Arabian sample

Relatively few studies have attempted to identify factors that contribute to variation in parental behavior. The literature has revealed associations between both internal and external factors in the variation in parenting behaviors. In addition, the vast majority of the existing literature has focused almost exclusively on Western cultures (e.g., the USA). The current study addresses these limitations by examining direct and indirect pathways involving both internal and external sources of influence on parenting behaviors in a sample of adults from Saudi Arabia (N = 196). The employed statistical models revealed robust and consistent direct associations between the examined internalizing sources of influence (self-control and psychopathy) and parenting behaviors. Subsequent models revealed some evidence of mediation stemming from external sources of influence (namely, aggression). However, the resulting indirect effects were inconsistent, indicating that other, unmeasured mechanisms ultimately connect the examined internalizing problems and parenting behaviors.     

Identity Styles and Interpersonal Behavior in Emerging Adulthood: The Intervening Role of Empathy

This study examined the intervening role of empathy in the relations between identity styles (i.e., information‐oriented, normative, and diffuse‐avoidant styles), and inter‐personal behaviors (i.e., prosocial behavior, self‐ and other‐oriented helping, and physical and relational aggression). In a sample of 341 emerging adults, it was found that an information‐oriented style relates to a more adaptive pattern of interpersonal behaviors whereas a normative or a diffuse‐avoidant identity style relate to a more maladaptive pattern of interpersonal behaviors. Empathy played an intervening role between the information‐oriented style and interpersonal behavior, and between the diffuse‐avoidant style and interpersonal behavior. However, empathy did not intervene between the normative style and interpersonal behavior. Implications for future research are discussed.     

Discounting with fat-tailed economic growth

When the growth of aggregate consumption exhibits no serial correlation, the socially efficient discount rate is independent of the time horizon, because the wealth effect and the precautionary effect are proportional to the time horizon. In this paper, we consider alternative growth processes: an AR(1), a Brownian motion with unknown trend or volatility, a two-state regime-switching model, and a model with an uncertain return of capital. All these models exhibit some persistence of shocks on the growth rate of the economy and fat tails, which implies that one should discount more distant costs and benefits at a smaller rate.     

Associations between attitudes towards scientific misconduct and self-reported behavior

We investigate the relationship between doctoral students’ attitudes towards scientific misconduct and their self-reported behavior. 203 questionnaires were distributed to doctoral candidates at the Faculty of Medicine, University of Oslo 2016/2017. The response rate was 74%. The results show a correlation between attitudes towards misconduct and self-reported problematic behaviors among doctoral students in biomedicine. The four most common reported misbehaviors are adding author(s) who did not qualify for authorship (17.9%), collecting more data after seeing that the results were almost statistically significant (11.8%), turning a blind eye to colleagues’ use of flawed data or questionable interpretation of data (11.2%), and reporting an unexpected finding as having been hypothesized from the start (10.5%). We find correlations between scientific misbehavior and the location of undergraduate studies and whether the respondents have had science ethics lectures previously. The study provides evidence for the concurrent validity of the two instruments used to measure attitudes and behavior, i.e. the Kalichman scale and the Research Misbehavior Severity Score (RMSS). Although the direction of causality between attitudes and misbehavior cannot be determined in this study the correlation between the two indicates that it can be important to engender the right attitudes in early career researchers.     

Exploring and Assessing Nonsocial Play in the Preschool: The Development and Validation of the Preschool Play Behavior Scale

Recently, researchers have investigated the different structural forms of young children's nonsocial play behaviors. The primary goal of this research was to develop and validate the Preschool Play Behavior Scale (PPBS) , a teacher rating scale designed to assess the multiple forms of young children's solitary behaviors. In this regard, two studies were conducted. In Study 1, 39 preschool children were observed, and their social and nonsocial behaviors recorded over a three month period. Teachers then completed the PPB S. Results supported the construct validity of the PPBS ; teacher-rated and observed nonsocial and social behaviors were significantly associated in predicted ways. In Study 2, parental (e.g., demographic, child temperament) and teacher (e.g., PPBS , child behavior problems) ratings were collected for 337 preschoolers. Results established the psychometric properties of the PPBS (e.g., inter-rater reliability, factor structure, internal consistency, and convergent validity).     

Pure hyperbolic discount curves predict “eyes open” self-control

The models of internal self-control that have recently been proposed by behavioral economists do not depict motivational interaction that occurs while temptation is present. Those models that include willpower at all either envision a faculty with a motivation (??strength??) different from the motives that are weighed in the marketplace of choice, or rely on incompatible goals among diverse brain centers. Both assumptions are questionable, but these models?? biggest problem is that they do not let resolutions withstand re-examination while being challenged by impulsive alternatives. The economists?? models all attempt to make a single equilibrium preference predictable from a person??s prior incentives. This was the original purpose of these models?? hyperboloid (???¨C????) delay discount functions, which have been widely justified by the assumption that a person??s intertemporal inconsistency (impulsiveness) can be accounted for by the arousal of appetite for visceral rewards. Although arousal is clearly a factor in some cases of intertemporal inconsistency, it cannot be blamed for others, and furthermore does not necessarily imply hyperboloid discounting. The inadequacy of ?¨C?? functions is particularly evident in models of internal self-control. I have reviewed several of these models, and have argued for a return to pure hyperbolic discount function as originally proposed, the relatively high tails of which can motivate a recursive process of self-prediction and thereby the formation of self-enforcing intertemporal contracts. Such a process does not require a separately motivated faculty of will, or incompatible goals among brain centers; but it also does not permit the prediction of unique preferences from prior incentives.     

Influence of Gender on Parental Socialization of Children's Sadness Regulation

Mothers' (N = 60) and fathers' (N = 53) perceptions of and desire for change in their 6‐ to 11‐year‐old daughters' (N = 59) and sons' (N = 54) sadness regulation behaviors (i.e., inhibition, dysregulation, coping) were examined in addition to parental responses to children's hypothetical sadness displays. Results of multivariate analyses of variance and regression analyses suggest that parental perceptions of and desired change in children's sadness behavior differ as a function of parent gender, child gender and child age (younger (grades 1, 2), older (grades 4, 5)), and predict the likelihood of contingent responses to children's sadness behavior. Overall, fathers reported being likely to respond to sadness with minimization whereas mothers reported being likely to respond with expressive encouragement and problem‐focused strategies. These parent‐reported socialization response tendencies, however, were more fully explained by the interaction between perceptions of children's sadness regulation behaviors and satisfaction with these behaviors. These findings highlight the need to include parent gender and parental cognitions as important variables in emotion socialization research.     

Cross‐National Gender Variation in Environmental Behaviors*

Objective. This article presents a cross‐national examination of gender variations in environmental behaviors. Research on environmental concern reveals modest distinctions between men and women, with women typically displaying higher levels of environmental concern and behavioral adjustments relative to men. Additionally, some prior research suggests that women appear more engaged in household‐oriented (private) pro‐environment behaviors (e.g., recycling), and men in community/society‐oriented (public) pro‐environment behaviors (e.g., protests). The analysis provided here offers an important extension to existing research through its cross‐cultural, comparative perspective. Method. We make use of the 1993 International Social Survey to explore gender differences in “private” and “public” environmentally‐oriented behaviors across 22 nations. Results. It is shown that women tend to engage in more environmental behaviors than men in many nations, particularly private behaviors. In addition, both women and men tend to engage in relatively more private environmental behaviors as opposed to public ones. Conclusion. The cross‐national analysis provides support for gender distinctions with regard to some environmental behaviors within most of the incorporated 22 national contexts. Gender differences in level of private environmental behaviors tend to be more consistent within nations at the upper end of the wealth distribution.