Measuring Support Provisions for People Living With Disabilities in South Asia: An Accessibility Index

ABSTRACT

The terms “empowerment,” “rights,” and “inclusiveness” are now commonly used in public policy, but little emphasis is placed on “accessibility” issues in the integration of disabled people. This article proposes a composite index to measure economic support provisions, such as employment, vocational training, microfinance, and safety nets. The index was tested in a case study (N= 245) of two districts in Pakistan. Results support a “cost/benefit”-based philosophy, rather than the “means–ends” goal, where the disabled poor are viewed as unproductive and risky payers, instead of giving them an opportunity to exercise their potential. Change for the disadvantaged poor can be brought about with the mandatory use of this index in local annual audits. Future research might examine the impact of the index and standardize it for global use.     

“一体多面”：中华帝制时期的国家—社会关系再研究

关于中华帝制时期国家与社会的关系特征国内外学术界提出了诸多理论概括,诸如“士绅自治”“吏民社会”“官民合作”,等等。本文从行政发包制理论的视角重新审视关于中华帝制时期国家—社会关系的现有理论概括,借助“行政外包”这一分析概念,强调特定的治理领域特征与行政外包的具体形态之间的对应关系,进而揭示国家与社会互动关系的运行机制和内在逻辑。本文试图提出“一体多面”的概念,重新概括中华帝制时期国家与社会关系的总体特征,为理解中华帝制的“权力一元性”与“治理多样性”的奇妙结合提供新的观察视角和分析框架。     

Alternative institutional responses to asbestos

The level of asbestos risk varies widely, with insulation workers facing risks many orders of magnitude greater than other groups, such as school children. After a period of regulatory neglect, asbestos risks are now among the mos stringently regulated risks, with costs per case of cancer prevented on the order of $100 million. Asbestos litigation triggered much of the public action against asbestos, as asbestos cases constituted the majority of all product liability cases in the federal courts from 1988 to 1991. The litigation costs have, however, been substantial, almost three times as great as the amounts transferred to asbestos disease victims. Risk communication potentially could promote efficient risk levels and victim compensation.     

Implicit public debt thresholds: An operational proposal

Gauging the public debt-to-GDP ratio a country can sustain in the medium-run without putting fiscal sustainability at risk is a question of key relevance for policy-makers. Deviations from a safe level of debt should be watched over in order to take corrective measures. In this paper we make a proposal for an operational characterization of the “prudent debt level”. To do so, we use standard methods based on Vector Autoregressions to compute the probability that the public debt ratio exceeds a given threshold, using the Spanish case as an example. The resulting probabilities are highly and positively correlated with market risk assessment, measured by the spread with respect to the German bond. Our estimation of the “prudent debt level” is obtained as the debt-to-GDP ratio that maximizes the correlation between the probability of passing a pre-specified debt threshold and the spread. The so-obtained implicit debt threshold or “prudent debt level”, which is consistent with the medium-term debt-to-GDP ratio anchor of 60% of GDP, presents several advantages as a complement to existing DSA toolkits.     

A test of the gambler's fallacy: Evidence from pari-mutuel games

The “gambler's fallacy” is the belief that the probability of an event is decreased when the event has occurred recently, even though the probability is objectively known to be independent across trials. Clotfelter and Cook (1991, 1993) find evidence of the gambler's fallacy in analysis of data from the Maryland lottery's“Pick 3” numbers game. In the Maryland lottery, the payout to all numbers is equal at $250 on a winning fifty-cent bet, so the gambler's fallacy betting strategy costs bettors nothing. This article looks at the importance of the gambler's fallacy in the New Jersey lottery's three-digit numbers game, a pari-mutuel game where a lower amount of total wagering on a number increases the payout to that number. Results indicate that the gambler's fallacy exists among bettors in New Jersey, although to a lesser extent than among those in Maryland.     

Compensating wage differentials for workplace accidents: Evidence for union and nonunion workers in the UK

This article measures compensating wage differentials for job risks for union and nonunion workers. Job risk is made endogenous to avoid a selectivity bias arising if more able people choose safer jobs. We find that this adjustment has a considerable effect on the union group, raising their fatal risk premium above that of non union workers. This implies that there is more variation in unmeasured ability in the unionized group, and that job risk is an inferior good. The fact that unionized workers are also found in safer jobs might therefore be attributable to their greater wealth, rather than to greater“knowledge” in the unionized plant. The estimated statistical value of a life is £8.8 million in 1990 prices for union workers, with nonunion workers about 20% lower.     

The digital economy and the future of European welfare states

As a consequence of new technology, labour markets are changing. This article’s central aim is to discuss variations among welfare states in Europe to adjust to changing labour markets. These variations in adjustment suggest that some welfare states are more prepared than others, including their capacity to ensure their sustainable financing. In the years to come, the predicted impact of technological development on labour markets will be huge. Impacts will include stronger “dualization” and new cleavages between “insiders” and “outsiders”. Fewer industrial jobs are to be expected, and service‐sector employment faces a risk of decline due to automation. While the creation of new jobs is likely, it remains to be seen whether these will replace the number of jobs destroyed, leaving the risk that many people whose skills become obsolete will become unemployed in the short as well as the longer term. Furthermore, even if the same number of jobs are eventually created, there will be a period of transition. In the light of this, welfare states will be challenged, not only in how they can finance their activities but also in terms of the threat posed to social cohesion by emerging labour market “winners” and “losers”, with an accompanying higher risk of increasing inequality. The article offers suggestions as to how welfare states may cope with the changes related to the financing of welfare states, and how active labour market policy can be part of the response to help alleviate the expected dramatic changes. Also required is a discussion on the annual average number of hours people will work and how this might be a factor in lower future levels of unemployment.     

Choices at various levels of uncertainty: An experimental test of the restated diversification theorem

Our “Restated diversification theorem” (Skogh and Wu, 2005) says that risk-averse agents may pool risks efficiently without assignment of subjective probabilities to outcomes, also at genuine uncertainty. It suffices that the agents presume that they face equal risks. Here, the theorem is tested in an experiment where the probability of loss, and the information about this probability, varies. The result supports our theorem. Moreover, it tentatively supports an evolutionary theory of the insurance industry—starting with mutual pooling at uncertainty, turning into insurance priced ex ante when actuarial information is available.     

“公共自信”：“公共自卑”的“天敌”

具有公共性质的自卑心理态势已成为当下社会管理创新的一个瓶颈问题。35年前的“个体自卑”促成了改革开放,现在改革开放又造成了“公共自卑”。这种自卑心理上的螺旋式运行是否是社会的一种常态,还需要进一步的观察和思考。现实是,一方面是人际之间的交往、沟通、理解和支持越来越少;另一方面则是“私性”的认同、私欲的膨胀、私利的猖獗,进而导致了世风日下甚至人心迷乱。对国家来说,“公共自卑”是“国家意识”的一种毒瘤。既然是毒瘤,其内部就势必蕴涵有一种特别和特殊的势能。用好了,可以把“反能量”转化为“正能量”;用不好,则容易把“正能量”转变为“反能量”。十八大报告的“自信说”不仅提出“公共自卑”管理的“公共自信”的方向、方面和方法的思路,而且还提供了一个克服“公共自卑”的心理学上的有力武器。     

“应得”传统的历史叙事

对“应得”概念的讨论可以追溯至古希腊时期。亚里士多德等人认为所谓“应得”是根据公民的“德性”分配公共职务,启蒙运动宣扬的自由、平等与民主等理念改变了“应得”的历史传统,它赋予公民以“自治”和权利意识,让人们意识到可以依凭个体的自主行动来“应得”社会的基本益品。当代正义理论家罗尔斯等人区分了“应得”和“反应得”,将超出个人控制、受运气因素影响的“应得”（如自然天赋、社会地位等）排除在分配正义之外。罗尔斯等人的区分深化了“应得”理论的思考。当代社会对“应得”的讨论还进一步扩展到人类与动物、当代人与未来世代以及民族国家和全球共同体之间。     

“开禁”还是“飨宴”？--汉唐北宋赐酺举措缘起、背景与施行动因的再探讨

汉唐北宋时代的“酒禁”政策并不能直观地理解为“禁民饮酒”。“禁群饮”之举在当时虽有发生,却始终并非一项整体与长期的国家政策,在其已然宣布的时期之内,执行与贯彻的力度也大可存疑。笼统地以“酒禁”或“禁群饮”政策的存在来解释赐酺举措发生和存续的合理性缺乏说服力。酺会在汉唐北宋的不断发生、持续流行,根本原因在于其最为核心的内容与意义是飨宴欢会。其给民众带来更热烈的欢宴体验、更加丰富的公共活动内涵以及更为广大的社交活动平台,同时为统治者提供得力的政治工具。赐酺之举的丰富功能使得其能够横历不同王朝,长期存在。     

The “ugly” face of social investment? The politics of childcare in Central and Eastern Europe

In this article, we aim to understand the development dynamics of a specific area of social investment (SI), that is, childcare policies, in the context of postcommunist politics and the recent right-wing turn that took place in the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland. This article identifies varieties of channels for promoting SI. First, in taking the perspective of the “mixed economy of welfare,” we argue that attempts made to introduce elements of SI to the childcare policies involved various leading roles available for either the private sector or state/public domain. Second, it is important to distinguish between implicit/unintended and explicit/intended projects both in relation to cases in which SI strategy is applied via marketization/privatization and when it involves a government-led project. Third, we take into account the politics of SI implementation that might involve applying certain principles central to policy concepts (such as “investment”) in justifying policy instruments incompatible with original ideas. Although arguments about SI have been extensively used by Eastern European leaders, their goal has been to justify welfare reforms that were implicitly or explicitly directed towards the middle class while excluding the “nondeserving” often based on ethnic identity. We characterize Poland as a case of “implicit marketization,” the Czech Republic as a case of “explicit privatization,” and the Hungarian version of SI as a case of “explicit public dualization.” In this, we show that in some cases, the implementation of SI approaches by right-wing populist parties might rear its “ugly” head.     

Minimal Risk in Pediatric Research: A Philosophical Review and Reconsideration

Despite more than thirty years of debate, disagreement persists among research ethicists about the most appropriate way to interpret the U.S. regulations on pediatric research, specifically the categories of “minimal risk” and a “minor increase over minimal risk.” Focusing primarily on the definition of “minimal risk,” we argue in this article that the continued debate about the pediatric risk categories is at least partly because their conceptual status is seldom considered directly. Once this is done, it becomes clear that the most popular strategy for interpreting “minimal risk”—defining it as a specific set of risks—is indefensible and, from a pragmatic perspective, unlikely to resolve disagreement. Primarily this is because judgments about minimal risk are both normative and heavily intuitive in nature and thus cannot easily be captured by reductions to a given set of risks. We suggest instead that a more defensible approach to evaluating risk should incorporate room for reflection and deliberation. This dispositional, deliberative framework can nonetheless accommodate a number of intellectual resources for reducing reliance on sheer intuition and improving the quality of risk evaluations.     

明清白话小说中的过继叙事探析

过继叙事作为明清白话小说中相对独立的叙事单元，对小说的艺术表现起到了重要作用。过继叙事不仅是推动小说故事展开的动力和营造传奇效果的艺术手段，在发掘与之相关人物的隐秘心理及形象塑造上也起到了独特作用。另外，过继叙事在小说中的频繁出现，也反映了当时人对现实生活中过继关系的焦虑。明清白话小说中大量有关继子“复姓归宗”的叙述，在很大程度上可以看作是一种通过文学虚构平复心理焦虑的“需要”。     

丧礼相声与民国时期京津平民的社会关系运作

在近代城市人口流动增大的背景下,有必要对基于差序格局的社会关系运作方式有何变化展开深入探讨。虽然民国时期京津两地人口流动规模较大,但其城市文化在旗人生活方式的影响下依然重视基于血缘伦理的礼数。通过分析反映京津城市文化的丧礼相声可以发现,在人口流动与城市文化碰撞下,京津平民倾向于接纳外人与陌生人进入其丧服体系,亦即差序格局的核心圈层,以完成礼数的正常运行。民国时期京津平民的社会关系运作逻辑基于“义利之辨”的“交情”与“占便宜”,“交情”使外人、陌生人得以进入差序格局核心圈层,而“占便宜”则是外人、陌生人调适自身在差序格局中的合理位置的过程。     

Pension reform in the Baltic States: Convergence with “Europe” or with “the world”?

Abstract The Baltic States – Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania – join the European Union in 2004. This paper examines pension reform in the three countries over the past decade in the light of the “European social model” and the “World Bank model”. Part one seeks to define these two models. It shows how the former emphasizes income adequacy and solidarity while the latter stresses fiscal sustainability, savings and economic growth. Part two looks at reforms made and proposed. Initial reforms involved raising the retirement age and relating benefits more closely to earnings and service. This resulted in the establishment of pension systems similar to those in many European countries. Subsequent reforms involved attempts to shift from a publicly financed, purely “pay‐as‐you‐go” system to one based upon “funding” and private, individual accounts. Such systems have been promoted by the World Bank. The appropriateness of this approach – its high transition costs, potentially high administration costs, and longer‐term implications for the relative income status of retired people – is questioned. Part three draws conclusions. In the short and medium term, policymaker should safeguard income adequacy rather than seek the doubtful advantages of funding – in other words, look more to “Europe” than to “the world”.     

Security sector practitioner perceptions of the terror threat environment before the Christchurch attacks

ABSTRACT

On 15 March 2019, Brenton Tarrant destroyed New Zealand’s perception of its low threat terrorist risk. Security sector practitioners interviewed for this study before 15 March spoke about the challenges of performing counter terrorism roles in that low threat environment. Their perceptions revealed a fear that terrorist attacks occurring overseas, would sooner or later occur in New Zealand. Their roles were complicated by an overarching sense of social, bureaucratic and political complacency toward the threat of terrorism. They perceived legislative inertia, which fettered the powers and resources agencies had to effectively act against the risks they believed were present. Despite these barriers, security sector agencies continued to look for possible emerging threats across a spectrum of risk, but relied on improvised use of existing legislation to manage it. This was more effective against those motivated by militant jihadism, and as Tarrant demonstrated, less so against other threats. Community engagement was needed and successfully achieved, although difficulties were observed which need to be addressed, and the media was perceived as having an undue influence over New Zealand’s security priorities, highlighting the need for a national counter terrorism strategy.     

Querulous Citizens: Welfare Knowledge and the Limits to Welfare Reform

Governments face pressures to improve services and (at the same time) to contain taxes and to ensure that their decisions are accountable to increasingly well‐informed and challenging citizens. The dilemma of “squaring the welfare circle” confronts New Labour in a particularly acute form, since the party has set ambitious targets for improvements in the NHS, education and elsewhere, and is also committed to economic prudence and transparency. This article uses new data from a major national survey to investigate knowledge and beliefs in the main policy areas. It shows that most people are generally strikingly well‐informed in some areas and ill‐informed in others. A government which wishes to pursue a progressive direction in redistribution, increasing taxation of the better‐off, or expanding provision for those on low incomes, faces real difficulties because many people hold inaccurate beliefs about policy impact and the policy context in these areas. However, NHS costs are more accurately perceived across the population, and the proposed expansion is likely to create less controversy. Current high‐profile policies appear to follow the contours of public knowledge reasonably accurately, but further policy development will require positive efforts to lead debates and improve public knowledge.     

Is the BasicsCard “shaming” Aboriginal people? Exploring the differing responses to welfare quarantining in Cape York

As part of the Cape York Welfare Reform Trial (CYWRT), which has been running in the remote Aboriginal towns of Aurukun, Hope Vale, Mossman Gorge and Coen since 2008, Family Responsibilities Commissioners have the unprecedented ability to quarantine welfare payments. Critics claim this “BasicsCard,” which cannot be spent on alcohol, tobacco, pornography or gambling, brings shame to Aboriginal people – marking them as dependants, deemed incapable of responsible spending. Evaluations of the CYWRT paint a more complicated picture. While many of the “spectators” of the CYWRT report “welfare reform stigma,” the “subjects” themselves are more positive. This paper draws on ethnographic research in Hope Vale to argue that these categories overlap with loosely defined, porous social groups that developed during the town's mission past, described as the “engaged” and “embedded” Hope Valers, respectively. The engaged group tends to be more aware of and sensitive to the views of the dominant society and to subscribe to its “ideology of respectability.” Meanwhile, the latter group tends to adhere to a more egalitarian “ideology of relatedness,” and do not experience the shame, even when their own welfare is quarantined, because the behaviours that trigger quarantining are normalised within their highly circumscribed domain.     

A portrait of the artist as a politician: the case of Adolf Hitler

Hitler behaved within the parameters of an artist and a narcissist as mediated by charisma and charismatic leadership. An ex post facto assessment of Hitler's personality type using the principles of Jungian typology reveals that even his most preferred psychological functions were not securely developed and this led him to overlook reality and become insensitive to the suffering of the people during World War II. As a result of his traumas, Hitler experienced “chronic narcissistic rage.” It resulted in destructive thinking and behavior. Hitler was able to relate his rage to that of the people and promise salvation through “national reawakening” and the creation of a new order. When he was no longer able to provide successes, Hitler began losing his charisma and the people ceased to believe in his heroism and providential role. His strong sense of mission and strength of will sustained him to the bitter end. Hitler transformed Germany and much of Europe and beyond.