中国老年人口高龄化趋势及原因的国际比较分析

进入本世纪 ,在人口老龄化速度加快的同时 ,老年人口将呈现高龄化趋势。本文运用历次人口普查资料 ,对我国老年人口年龄结构及高龄老人规模变动趋势、成因及所带来的影响进行了分析。通过国际比较 ,对我国老年人口高龄化程度及高龄老年人口状况有一较客观的认识。与发达国家相比 ,我国老年人口高龄化进程在很大程度上受出生人口队列影响 ,同时死亡率下降的作用在逐渐增大。老年人口高龄化趋势将使孤寡老人及老年妇女问题尤为突出。     

中国老年人口高龄化发展前景及其影响

中国老年人口高龄化发展前景及其影响姜向群在我国人口老龄化过程中，老年人口本身的年龄结构并不是均衡发展的。特别是人口预期寿命有了较大幅度的延长之后。老年人口的年龄将出现较明显的结构性变动，在这种变动过程中，老年人口年龄结构不断向高龄化发展，即在全部老年...     

21世纪以来我国塔塔尔族人口变动分析

塔塔尔族是我国人口最少的少数民族,且是主体民族在国外的跨界民族,普查数据显示其人口数量不增反降.本文充分利用普查数据,并结合实地调研,对塔塔尔族在2000~2010年十年间人口的变动情况及其影响因素进行了分析.这十年塔塔尔族人口减少主要是青年人口的减少,境外迁移是人口减少的主要原因.     

负增长:是喜?是忧?——关于上海生育率下降及其后果的初步研究

一、引言 人口学家所从事的学科是在人口空前增长时期发展起来的,他们对于如何对付人口减少毫无经验(Peter Pirrie,1985)。而人口减少已经成为一个不容忽视的现实问题。 作为一个现实问题,人口减少的威胁最初出现于第一次世界大战后的西欧,在当时引起了世人广泛的恐慌,也引起了学者们的关注。遗憾的是,这种关注大多来自经济学者,他们中有凯恩斯、汉森、哈罗德、缪尔达尔等(J.Overbeek,1974)。而人口学者对于人口减少及其后果关注甚少,特别是,第二次世界大战后,随着西欧人口增长的回潮,发展中地区的人口“爆炸”,所有对人口的关注似乎都转向了人口增长及其后果。人口减少问题被忽视了。     

2000年以来长三角人口分布变动研究

从三个尺度上即圈层尺度、地级市尺度以及区县尺度利用第五和六次人口普查数据分析了近10年长三角人口空间分布特征变动.10年间,长三角人口规模进一步扩大,人口密度进一步稠密,反映了作为我国经济发展增长极的不断增强的人口集聚能力.从圈层变动来看,人口向核心层集聚特征明显,圈层分异特征明显.从中级尺度来看,10年间除了上海的高速增长外,最主要的特征是苏州的高速增长,其年均增长甚至超过上海,此外,苏中三市人口减少形成了长三角北翼的人口塌陷区.从微观尺度而言,上海及其周边增长快速,人口增长主要分布在核心城市构成的廊道上,各个城市核心区集聚效应明显,表明各城市仍处于向心城市化阶段.未来,根据长三角的发展特征以及国家的宏观政策,长三角的次核心城市将进一步发展,长三角人口分布的多中心趋势将会显现.     

国外大都市“白天人口”研究及其对我国的启示

不同地区之间的白天和夜间人口的变动信息以及人口在一天中所处的地理位置和时段对于城市规划、交通运输、环境、灾害和紧急救援行动等都具有重要的意义。城市中心区域的活力已不仅仅体现于当地的居住人口,以＂日＂为周期的通勤和其他经济活动人口对中心区域的经济、社会、文化和环境等各方面都有重要的影响。本文旨在对国外有关大都市＂白天人口＂的研究做一个大致的梳理,这不仅有助于我们了解国外白天人口研究的发展和现状,同时也可以对我国开展相应的白天人口研究提供一些借鉴和启示。     

基于广义人口结构的区域劳动生产率差异分析

人口结构变动通过作用于物质资本和人力资本积累影响区域劳动生产率.本文采用中国1993-2014年29个省份的面板数据,对从人口年龄、性别、城乡分布以及受教育程度四个方面所衡量的广义人口结构对区域劳动生产率的影响进行了实证研究.结果发现,人口结构对劳动生产率的影响在东、中、西部三大区域存在较大差异,其中少儿抚养比下降、老年抚养比上升带来的正向影响仅在东部和西部地区显著,人口城镇化为东部地区带来正向效应,却对西部地区产生抑制作用.高中教育对劳动生产率没有明显的推动作用,大专及以上高等教育则带来了正向影响.研究还发现,性别比例在中部地区导致劳动生产率呈现倒"U"型的变动过程,而其在西部地区则表现为"U"型的变动过程.由此,隐含的政策含义是:提高劳动生产率、缩小地区差异,有必要进一步放开生育政策,提高女性劳动力占比,均衡男女边际生产率,积极推进欠发达地区就近城镇化.     

三年经济困难时期中国人口地区分布的变动

１９５９~１９６１年间由于重大政策失误等原因,中国遭遇了严重的经济困难,人口减少,人口分布出现了不正常的显著变动。本文对该时期全国各地区的经济形势,尤其是粮食生产和供应形势,以及与此有着密切关系的人口自然变动和人口迁移,进行了定量的差异分析,总结了中国人口分布的变动特点,并简要评价了这种变动的社会经济意义。     

《日本人口论》——第1章 第4-6部分

<正> 四、世界人口的新课题——人口高龄化占世界人口70%的发展中地区的大部分国家,为抑制人口增长率,都在推行降低出生率的政策。其典型就是第二次世界大战后很快以国家政策推行家庭计划的印度,以及史无前例地开始实行“一个孩”政策的中国。仅此两国的人口就达到了17亿。如前节所述,在人口增长控制计划刚开始推行不久的中国,人口高龄化的问题就被深入地研究着。从1978年中国人口的年龄结构来看,0-14岁的幼少年人口占总人口的38.6%,65岁以上的老年人口还只不过占4.8%。尽管如此,对于人口高龄化这个令人关心的大问题,仍是值得特别重视的。     

广西高龄人口特征、问题与对策研究

本文利用第五次人口普查及其相关资料 ,分析指出广西高龄人口比例高、百岁老人数量居全国首位、93岁以上人口死亡率变动异常等重要特征 ,以及高龄人口面临着“未富先寿”、家庭养老受到冲击、失落感孤独感增强等严峻问题 ,并从战略的高度前瞻性地提出应对人口高龄化的对策措施     

Differentials in divorce in maryland

The basic data needed for measurement of the risks of termination of the legal relationship of marriage by characteristics of the marital partners are not available at this time for the United States because the national divorce registration area includes less than half the States. Special studies based on selected census data or the records of marriages and divorces occurring in one State or community have provided much of the valuable but limited information at hand. Statistics for individual States are subject to substantial bias as a consequence of inter-State migration between time of marriage and time of divorce, but they must serve as a basic data source until national reporting has improved. A record linkage study was undertaken which tied marriages occurring in the State of Maryland in 1959 with divorces occurring in the State in the years 1959–66. Relative, not actual, divorce risks by race, age at marriage, and previous marital status were calculated for couples with at least one partner an in-State resident at the time of marriage. The dissolution rate was higher for whites than for nonwhites. Marriages contracted by persons at very youthful ages and by persons who had been married previously were found subject to greater than average risks of dissolution through divorce.     

城市计划生育技术服务方式创新--南京市玄武区政府购买计划生育技术服务的实践

建立政府牵头、计卫联手、资源共享的计划生育技术服务体系 ,开展以知识普及、知情选择、随访服务、咨询指导、健康促进为主要内容的计划生育避孕节育和生殖保健优质服务 ,最大限度地满足社区育龄群众在计划生育和生殖保健方面的需求 ,是城市计划生育技术服务改革发展的方向1 。近几年 ,南京市玄武区计划生育局在区委、区政府的领导以及省市计生委的支持下 ,根据新时期城市计划生育工作改革发展要求 ,积极推进政府计划生育部门的职能转变 ,探索计划生育技术服务方式的改革创新 ,尝试依托社区医疗卫生和妇幼保健服务网络 ,由政府购买计划生育…     

Major Tasks in Health and Family Planning in China in 2015

On January 12,2015,at the regular press briefing of National Health and Family Planning Commission(NHFPC),NHFPC reported the major tasks in health and family planning in China in 2015.The details are as follows:In-depth Development of Medical and Health System Reform In-depth Development of Medical and Health System Reform.     

Increases in childlessness in New Zealand

New Zealand’s fertility fell below the theoretical replacement level (2.1 births per woman) for the first time in recorded history in 1978. It has hovered at or below replacement level ever since. The result, an impression of relative stability, belies changes taking place. Data from the 1981, 1996 and 2006 censuses show a pattern of delayed childbearing and increased childlessness. In a little over 30 years, childlessness has shifted from being almost entirely a consequence of a couple’s infecundity to being as frequently a result of a woman’s life choices. The steady rises in childlessness recorded by successive cohorts suggest that childlessness is already having a significant effect on New Zealand fertility. Patterns in characteristics of those women choosing not to start families, as well as subtle differences in these patterns between New Zealand and other developed nations, suggest that there is a significant potential for childlessness to cause a more dramatic shift in New Zealand’s total fertility rate. This analysis examines growth in childlessness in relation to marital status, country of birth, ethnicity, regional and urban differentials, religion, and educational attainment of women who were childless at the 1981, 1996 and 2006 censuses.

Shifts in Reproductive Patterns in China

The People's Republic of China, during the second half of the twentieth century, has been repeatedly affected by social and political upheavals associated with government policies. These have produced strong but unexpected impacts on Chinese demographic patterns. Many of these policies are of the sorts that alter reproductive costs and benefits. This study examines patterns in Hebei, Shaanxi, and Shanghai, three provinces with differing ecological, geographic, and economic characteristics. Government policies affected the three populations differentially; this was evident at both aggregate and individual levels. The Great Leap Forward and subsequent famine created higher birth deficits and mortality among the largely rural populations of Hebei and Shaanxi than the more urban Shanghai. In contrast, the Cultural Revolution and family planning resulted in lower fertility levels for women in Shanghai. The population history of China during the second half of last century thus reflects strong state interventions in the lives of its citizens. Government policies, along with regional variations in geographic, social, and economic conditions, strongly influence individual access to resources in China. Variations in timing and intensity of women's reproductive patterns reflect differential access to resources and subsequent trade-offs.     

Materialism in Pedagogy Students in Chile

Many studies have used Richins and Dawson’s (J Consum Res 19: 303–316, 1992) Material Values Scale (MVS), applying it to different types of populations that exhibit a particular psychometric behavior, and showing little stability in their factorial structure. In the present study, 1,070 pedagogy students from the northern, central and southern regions of Chile answered the MVS. This sample was randomly divided in two. Using the first sub-sample (N = 539), an exploratory factorial analysis was carried out, from which a structure of nine items was grouped into two factors called “Social Success” and “Personal Happiness”, which presented adequate reliability. Later, with the second sub-sample (N = 531), the factorial structure indicated above was put to the test through a confirmatory factorial analysis. The data from the model show that the scale contains 8 items in total, grouped into two dimensions. The factorial loads are significant at the level of 1 %, which indicates that the 2-factor structure can be confirmed. Finally—using the proposed structure—the presence of the students’ material values was evaluated.     

论西部开发中的城市发展问题

本文在对近20年来我国城市发展进行回顾与反思的基础上,提出了西部制定城市发展战略和选择城市发展道路的基本原则以及若干城市发展对策措施.     

Trends in life expectancy in wellbeing

Objectives: This paper describes anddiscusses trends in life expectancy inwellbeing between 1989 and 1998.Methods: Data on wellbeing by theBradburn Affect Balance Scale is obtained fromthe Netherlands Continuous Health InterviewSurveys for the calendar years from 1989 to1998. Using Sullivan's method, life expectancyin wellbeing is calculated.Results: For males at the age of 16, lifeexpectancy in wellbeing increases significantlyfrom 52.7 years in 1989 (90.1% of the totallife expectancy) to 54.4 years in 1998(90.8%). This increase is almost completelycaused by the increase in total lifeexpectancy. For females at the age of 16, lifeexpectancy in wellbeing raises significant from54.4 years in 1989 (84.1%) to 56.2 years in1998 (86.3%). This increase is almostcompletely caused by a decrease in the numberof years in a state of distress.For both males and females at the age of 65,the significant increase of life expectancy inwellbeing exceeds the increase in total lifeexpectancy and is mainly caused by the decreasein number of years in distress.Conclusion: Contrary to life expectancyin good perceived health and to disability freelife expectancy – which show a decreasing trend– the overall wellbeing of the population isincreasing. It seems that aspects in human lifethat contribute to wellbeing or quality of lifeother than physical health are gaining inimportance. This makes life expectancy inwellbeing a less appropriate instrument tomonitor changes in population health, but auseful instrument to measure population qualityof life.     

Changes in Living Standards and Depopulation in Latvia in the 1990s

Social Indicators Research -     

"非典"期间全国农村地区跨省流入人口调查数据分析

在2003年抗击非典的关键时期,国家人口和计划生育委员会进行了全国农村地区跨省流入人口的调查.本文着重分析这项调查所获得的数据,并对数据的一致性做出说明.既揭示了我国农村流动人口的基本特征和非典时期农村人口流动的规模和流向特点,又反映了非典对这一时期全国人口的流动所产生的影响,同时展示了我国抗击非典工作在农村地区所取得的成绩.