A Cautionary Note on the Use of the Grønnesby and Borgan Goodness-of-Fit Test for the Cox Proportional Hazards Model

Grønnesby and Borgan (1996, Lifetime Data Analysis 2, 315–328) propose an omnibus goodness-of-fit test for the Cox proportional hazards model. The test is based on grouping the subjects by their estimated risk score and comparing the number of observed and a model based estimated number of expected events within each group. We show, using extensive simulations, that even for moderate sample sizes the choice of number of groups is critical for the test to attain the specified size. In light of these results we suggest a grouping strategy under which the test attains the correct size even for small samples. The power of the test statistic seems to be acceptable when compared to other goodness-of-fit tests.     

A note on the equality of the OLSE and the BLUE of the parametric function in the general Gauss–Markov model

In this note we consider the equality of the ordinary least squares estimator (OLSE) and the best linear unbiased estimator (BLUE) of the estimable parametric function in the general Gauss–Markov model. Especially we consider the structures of the covariance matrix V for which the OLSE equals the BLUE. Our results are based on the properties of a particular reparametrized version of the original Gauss–Markov model.      

A powerful and interpretable alternative to the Jarque–Bera test of normality based on 2nd-power skewness and kurtosis,using the Rao's score test on the APD family

We introduce the 2nd-power skewness and kurtosis, which are interesting alternatives to the classical Pearson's skewness and kurtosis, called 3rd-power skewness and 4th-power kurtosis in our terminology. We use the sample 2nd-power skewness and kurtosis to build a powerful test of normality. This test can also be derived as Rao's score test on the asymmetric power distribution, which combines the large range of exponential tail behavior provided by the exponential power distribution family with various levels of asymmetry. We find that our test statistic is asymptotically chi-squared distributed. We also propose a modified test statistic, for which we show numerically that the distribution can be approximated for finite sample sizes with very high precision by a chi-square. Similarly, we propose a directional test based on sample 2nd-power kurtosis only, for the situations where the true distribution is known to be symmetric. Our tests are very similar in spirit to the famous Jarque–Bera test, and as such are also locally optimal. They offer the same nice interpretation, with in addition the gold standard power of the regression and correlation tests. An extensive empirical power analysis is performed, which shows that our tests are among the most powerful normality tests. Our test is implemented in an R package called PoweR.     

On the existence and uniqueness of the maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters of Birnbaum–Saunders distribution based on Type-I,Type-II and hybrid censored samples

The Birnbaum–Saunders (BS) distribution is a positively skewed distribution and is a common model for analysing lifetime data. In this paper, we discuss the existence and uniqueness of the maximum likelihood estimates (MLEs) of the parameters of BS distribution based on Type-I, Type-II and hybrid censored samples. The line of proof is based on the monotonicity property of the likelihood function. We then describe the numerical iterative procedure for determining the MLEs of the parameters, and point out briefly some recently developed simple methods of estimation in the case of Type-II censoring. Some graphical illustrations of the approach are given for three real data from the reliability literature. Finally, for illustrative purpose, we also present an example in which the MLEs do not exist.     

A new compound class of log-logistic Weibull–Poisson distribution: model,properties and applications

A new class of distributions called the log-logistic Weibull–Poisson distribution is introduced and its properties are explored. This new distribution represents a more flexible model for lifetime data. Some statistical properties of the proposed distribution including the expansion of the density function, quantile function, hazard and reverse hazard functions, moments, conditional moments, moment generating function, skewness and kurtosis are presented. Mean deviations, Bonferroni and Lorenz curves, Rényi entropy and distribution of the order statistics are derived. Maximum likelihood estimation technique is used to estimate the model parameters. A simulation study is conducted to examine the bias, mean square error of the maximum likelihood estimators and width of the confidence interval for each parameter and finally applications of the model to real data sets are presented to illustrate the usefulness of the proposed distribution.     

Authors’ response: on the role of data,statistics and decisions in a pandemic

AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis -     

A comparison of the Hosmer–Lemeshow,Pigeon–Heyse,and Tsiatis goodness-of-fit tests for binary logistic regression under two grouping methods

Algebraic relationships between Hosmer–Lemeshow (HL), Pigeon–Heyse (J²), and Tsiatis (T) goodness-of-fit statistics for binary logistic regression models with continuous covariates were investigated, and their distributional properties and performances studied using simulations. Groups were formed under deciles-of-risk (DOR) and partition-covariate-space (PCS) methods. Under DOR, HL and T followed reported null distributions, while J² did not. Under PCS, only T followed its reported null distribution, with HL and J² dependent on model covariate number and partitioning. Generally, all had similar power. Of the three, T performed best, maintaining Type-I error rates and having a distribution invariant to covariate characteristics, number, and partitioning.     

L-moments of the Birnbaum–Saunders distribution and its extreme value version: estimation,goodness of fit and application to earthquake data

Understanding patterns in the frequency of extreme natural events, such as earthquakes, is important as it helps in the prediction of their future occurrence and hence provides better civil protection. Distributions describing these events are known to be heavy tailed and positive skew making standard distributions unsuitable for modelling the frequency of such events. The Birnbaum–Saunders distribution and its extreme value version have been widely studied and applied due to their attractive properties. We derive L-moment equations for these distributions and propose novel methods for parameter estimation, goodness-of-fit assessment and model selection. A simulation study is conducted to evaluate the performance of the L-moment estimators, which is compared to that of the maximum likelihood estimators, demonstrating the superiority of the proposed methods. To illustrate these methods in a practical application, a data analysis of real-world earthquake magnitudes, obtained from the global centroid moment tensor catalogue during 1962–2015, is carried out. This application identifies the extreme value Birnbaum–Saunders distribution as a better model than classic extreme value distributions for describing seismic events.     

Super Searchers Go to the Source: The Interviewing and Hands-on Information Strategies of Top Primary Researchers—Online,on the Phone,and in Person

Abstract

OCLC recently announced a plan to implement MARC 21 Format for Holdings Data (MFHD) and invited holdings experts Frieda Rosenberg and Diane Hillmann to serve as advisors and to aid in the implementation process. In December 2004, Jian Wang interviewed Rosenberg and Hillmann. They discuss their longtime involvement with the holdings standard and provide interesting perspectives on the issues, challenges, and benefits for the constituencies (libraries, the serials community, system vendors, and bibliographic utilities) involved with and responsible for implementing and using MFHD.     

Investigating the role of orthogonal and non – orthogonal rotation in multivariate factor analysis,in regard to the repeatability of the extracted factors: A simulation study

ABSTRACT

Factor analysis (FA) is the most commonly used pattern recognition methodology in social and health research. A technique that may help to better retrieve true information from FA is the rotation of the information axes. The main goal is to test the reliability of the results derived through FA and to reveal the best rotation method under various scenarios. Based on the results of the simulations, it was observed that when applying non-orthogonal rotation, the results were more repeatable as compared to the orthogonal rotation, and, when no rotation was applied.     

A Note on Overdifferencing and the Equivalence of Seasonal Time Series Models With Monthly Means and Models With (0, 1, 1)12 Seasonal Parts When ⊖ = 1

Two general models for monthly seasonal time series are considered, one in which seasonality is modeled with monthly means and another in which seasonality is modeled with a (0, 1, 1)₁₂ ARIMA structure. The models are shown to be equivalent if the seasonal moving average parameter (?) is 1 and if the same assumptions about the 12 initial observations are made for both models. The role of the assumptions about the initial observations is analyzed, and it is argued that for practical purposes the two models can be regarded as equivalent when ? = 1. It is observed that the result extends easily to more general models involving overdifferencing.     

Comment on: On the role of data,statistics and decisions in a pandemic statistics for climate protection and health—dare (more) progress!

AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis - In the Corona pandemic, it became clear with burning clarity how much good quality statistics are needed, and at the same time how unsuccessful we are at...     

A Note on Breiman's Random Forest Data Mining Technique and Conventional Cox Modeling of Survival Statistics: The Case of the Phantom “Induct” Covariate in the Ohio State University Kidney Transplant Database

This note represents a portion of the research that has been conducted using the Ohio State University's large kidney transplant database. Our latest results into understanding the impact of covariates on renal graft success including the impact of drug therapy are discussed.

The major result here is that using both the Cox model and Breiman's Random Forest Data Mining techniques has helped to unravel the mystery of the “induct” immunosuppressant covariate slipping in and out of the list of important variables. We also make the interesting observation that the Random Forest method seems to mimic the clinician's (R.P.) understanding of the importance of variables.