The Bias in Price Elasticity Estimates Under Homothetic Separability: Implications for Analysis of Peak-Load Electricity Pricing

This article demonstrates that the assumption of a homothetically separable utility function places a priori restrictions on the parameters of the demand system. If these restrictions are unwarranted, an open question if they are not explicitly tested, they will lead to biased price elasticity estimates. In particular, we show that the uncompensated own-price elasticities must be smaller than the negative of the expenditure shares; that is, the price elasticity of peak electricity demand must be less than the negative of the share of expenditure devoted to peak electricity. This finding is probably not new to economists familiar with consumer demand analysis. Nevertheless, many recent studies of consumer demand for electricity under time-of-day rates explicitly impose this restriction. The resulting price elasticity estimates are usually quite large in absolute value (.5 to .8); but they are the product of restrictive a priori assumptions as well as information embodied in the sample data. The results of two analyses of time-of-day experiments, where the researchers imposed the untested assumption of homothetic separability, are examined more closely. We find that the reported price elasticities are strongly influenced by that a priori assumption. A Monte Carlo experiment demonstrates that using this model will lead to the reported price elasticities even if the consumption data are perfectly random with respect to price.     

Estimation and Welfare Analysis With Large Demand Systems

We develop an approach for estimating individual or household level preferences for a large set of quality-differentiated goods and for constructing Hicksian welfare measures within the demand system framework. Our approach uses a maximum simulated likelihood procedure to recover estimates of the structural parameters and a multistage, Monte Carlo Markov chain algorithm for constructing Hicksian consumer surplus estimates. We illustrate our approach with a recreation dataset consisting of day trips to 62 Mid-Atlantic beaches.     

农村居民消费不平等的微观结构分析

提出了个体微观数据基尼系数的组群、要素统一分解式,并利用该分解式考察消费结构、区域结构和收入不平等对农村居民消费不平等的影响.采用了2009年福建省农村居民生活状况调查数据进行分析,得出结论:食品、衣着类消费的增长可以降低农村居民的消费不平等,其中谷物、薯类、食用油、蔬菜及制品、肉禽蛋奶及制品的消费增长对消费公平性的提高产生积极的作用;组内不平等在总体消费不平等中占80％以上,消费差异主要表现为内部的差异;农村居民的消费不平等受收入不平等影响显著.     

A variant on the argument for the invariance of estimators in a singular system of equations

Allecation models, such as consumer demand systems, typically imply a degenerate error structure. The usual approach in estimation is to delete one equation, and to appeal to the results of Barten (1969), for example, that parameter estimates are invariant to the equation deleted. However such proofs of invariance are not straightforward. This paper demonstrates that such systems are observationally equivalent to structures common in the simultaneous equations literature, for which invariance is obvious, and hence provides a more transparent demonstration of conditions for invariance.     

中国居民消费对二氧化碳排放的影响——基于碳排放投入产出模型的分析

中国把战略重点转移到扩大内需,但扩大内需增加消费的同时,也不能忽略消费的负面影响,特别是通过产业间的带动作用对能源消耗及二氧化碳排放的影响。文章构建了碳排放预测的计量投入产出模型,预测了2011年分产品部门的居民消费支出对碳排放的拉动作用,并分析了其碳排放的成因。结果表明,减排重点部门为电力、热力的生产和供应业,而其碳排放主要通过消耗煤炭而产生的。     

陕西省农村居民消费结构的计量分析

消费需求是拉动经济增长的根本动因。运用扩展线性支出系统模型对陕西省农村居民的边际消费倾向、收入弹性和价格弹性进行实证分析，结果显示：陕西省农村居民仍然处于生存型消费阶段，消费支出主要集中在食品、教育和居住方面。要提高农村居民消费水平，必须千方百计增加农民收入，普及农村教育，改善农村消费环境。     

消费信贷对中国居民消费影响效应的实证研究

基于2007年1月至2012年10月的样本数据,采用协整检验和脉冲响应分析,从长期和短期两方面实证研究了消费信贷对中国居民消费的影响效应.研究表明,长期内消费信贷不会对居民消费产生显著影响,即增加消费信贷并不会改变人们的边际消费倾向;短期内消费信贷不仅刺激了消费需求,而且扩大消费信贷会对国内需求产生显著的正向影响.     

面板数据的可加分位回归模型研究与应用

本文在贝叶斯分析的框架下讨论了面板数据的可加模型分位回归建模方法。首先通过低秩薄板惩罚样条展开和个体效应虚拟变量的引进将非参数模型转换为参数模型,然后在假定随机误差项服从非对称Laplace分布的基础上建立了贝叶斯分层分位回归模型。通过对非对称Laplace分布的分解,论文给出了所有待估参数的条件后验分布,并构造了待估参数的 Gibbs抽样估计算法。计算机模拟仿真结果显示,新提出的方法相比于传统的可加模型均值回归方法在估计稳健性上明显占优。最后以消费支出面板数据为例研究了我国农村居民收入结构对消费支出的影响,发现对于农村居民来说,无论是高、中、低消费群体,工资性收入与经营净收入的增加对其消费支出的正向刺激作用更为明显。进一步,相比于高消费农村居民人群,低消费农村居民人群随着收入的增加消费支出上升速度较为缓慢。     

农村居民消费融资需求及影响因素分析——以陕西省渭南市为例

基于渭南市2 636户农户问卷调查数据,从农户分化与演变视觉分析农村居民消费融资需求状况。采用概率模型分析了影响农户融资消费的主要因素是收支的＂非均衡性＂、户主个性、消费环境、城乡融合程度和存贷款利率水平高低。建议调整国民收入分配结构,完善农村基本社会保障体系,推进农村居民生产生活集聚,构建以农户需求为导向的农村金融体系。     

Two-Stage Budgeting and Exact Aggregation

This paper presents an econometric model of demand for energy based on two-stage budgeting. The model provides own-price and cross-price elasticities of demand for energy and nonenergy commodities for the United States. These elasticities are estimated separately for households classified by family size, age of head, region, race, and urban versus rural residence. Price elasticities are presented conditional on total energy expenditure and total expenditure on all commodities. The model combines individual cross-section data with aggregate time series data and is based on exact aggregation over individual demand functions.     

Interest-Rate Arbitrage in Currency Baskets: Forecasting Weights and Measuring Risk

This article addresses the problem of the bias of income and expenditure elasticities estimated on pseudopanel data caused by measurement error and unobserved heterogeneity. We gauge these biases empirically by comparing cross-sectional, pseudo-panel, and true panel data from both Polish and U.S. expenditure surveys. Our results suggest that unobserved heterogeneity imparts a downward bias to cross-section estimates of income elasticities of at-home food expenditures and an upward bias to estimates of income elasticities of away-from-home food expenditures. “Within” and first-difference estimators suffer less bias, but only if the effects of measurement error are accounted for with instrumental variables.     

Aggregate Consumer Behavior and Household Equivalence Scales

This article presents estimates of household equivalence scales, broken down by demographic characteristics, of U.S. households. Separate estimates are given by family size, age of head, region, race, and urban versus rural residence. Commodity-specific scales are presented for five separate commodity groups—energy, food, consumer goods, capital services, and other services. The estimates are obtained from an econometric model of aggregate consumer behavior. The parameters of this model are estimated by combining aggregate time series and individual cross-section data.     

Age,Trend, and Cohort Effects in a Macro Model of Canadian Expenditure Patterns

A quadratic almost ideal demand system allowing for age, cohort, and trend effects is developed at the macro level. The model is estimated by maximum likelihood, using a three-tier iterative/search method applied to pooled 1961–1992 time series for five regions of Canada and six categories of expenditure. Hypothesis tests indicate support for the model specification. Elasticities are compared with those reported in other studies, with special attention to food. Effects of demographic and trend variables on elasticities and expenditure shares are investigated. An overall conclusion is that such effects can be very important in a macro demand system.     

The Econometrics of Piecewise-Linear Budget Constraints

In this article maximum likelihood techniques for estimating consumer demand functions when budget constraints are piecewise linear are exposited and surveyed. Consumer demand functions are formally derived under such constraints, and it is shown that the functions are themselves nonlinear as a result. The econometric problems in estimating such functions are exposited, and the importance of the stochastic specification is stressed, in particular the specification of both unobserved heterogeneity of preferences and measurement error. Econometric issues in estimation and testing are discussed, and the results of the studies that have been conducted to date are surveyed.     

中国农民工消费结构特征及市民化趋势分析——基于全国28省1249份有效样本数据检验

摸清农民工的消费结构和消费方式特征对扩大内需、寻求新的消费热点具有重要意义。首先利用2011年全国28省1 249份有效农民工非实验性问卷调查的数据,用SPSS17.0软件整理出农民工当前消费的基本情况,然后利用ELES法,深度分析农民工消费结构并与市民消费进行比较,结果发现:食物、服装、子女教育以及人情开支消费需求弹性比市民大;教育与娱乐消费份额偏低;医疗消费与住房消费特点与市民相似,消费倾向小,但住房支出的价格弹性大。最后,提出了优化农民工消费结构,扩大农民工消费需求,促进农民工深度市民化的政策建议。     

中国自然垄断行业消费者满意度分析

利用消费者问卷数据,分析中国自然垄断行业的消费者满意度差异及其影响因素。研究表明,消费者满意度以供电和供水行业最高,航空客运、固定电话和移动电话行业较高,供气、有线电视和邮政服务行业居中,宽带上网行业较低,铁路客运和公路客运行业最低。从统计显著性看,消费者质量感知、缴费方便性感知和重要性感知对消费者满意度有显著的正向影响,消费者价格感知对消费者满意度有显著的负向影响。从实际影响程度看,对消费者满意度影响最大的是质量感知,其次是缴费方便性感知,再次是价格感知,而重要性感知的影响很小。消费者个体特征对消费者满意度有不同程度的影响。     

Search With Dirichlet Priors: Estimation and Implications for Consumer Demand

This article is an empirical application of the search model with an unknown distribution, as introduced by Rothschild in 1974. For searchers who hold Dirichlet priors, we develop a novel characterization of optimal search behavior. Our solution delivers easily computable formulas for the ex-ante purchase probabilities as outcomes of search, as required by discrete-choice-based estimation. Using our method, we investigate the consequences of consumer learning on the properties of search-generated demand. Holding search costs constant, the search model from a known distribution predicts larger price elasticities, mainly for the lower-priced products. We estimate a search model with Dirichlet priors, on a dataset of prices and market shares of S&P 500 mutual funds. We find that the assumption of no uncertainty in consumer priors leads to substantial biases in search cost estimates.     

新疆地区农村正规金融与非正规金融供需影响因素研究

基于新疆农户家庭微观调研数据,构建四元Probit联立方程模型,并运用GHK模拟估计法对农村正规金融和非正规金融供需影响因素进行了有效识别,估计出影响因素对两类农村金融供给和需求的影响效应,发现农村正规金融机构和非正规金融组织存在显著的互补关系,并对估计结果进行了稳健性检验,结果表明模型估计结果稳健。研究发现:(1)对农村正规金融需求而言,户主受教育水平、家庭生产性固定资产总值等的影响为负,户主是否汉族、是否拥有技能等的影响为正;(2)对农村正规金融供给而言,居住地距农村正规金融机构距离的影响为负,非农收入比重、家庭纯收入等的影响为正;(3)对农村非正规金融需求而言,家中劳动力人数和生产经营投资的影响为负,户主是否汉族、家庭生活消费支出等的影响为正;(4)对农村非正规金融供给而言,是否处于南疆的影响为负,家庭纯收入、家庭获取礼金和获赠所得总额等的影响为正。     

Censored Quantile Instrumental Variable Estimates of the Price Elasticity of Expenditure on Medical Care

Efforts to control medical care costs depend critically on how individuals respond to prices. I estimate the price elasticity of expenditure on medical care using a censored quantile instrumental variable (CQIV) estimator. CQIV allows estimates to vary across the conditional expenditure distribution, relaxes traditional censored model assumptions, and addresses endogeneity with an instrumental variable. My instrumental variable strategy uses a family member’s injury to induce variation in an individual’s own price. Across the conditional deciles of the expenditure distribution, I find elasticities that vary from ?0.76 to ?1.49, which are an order of magnitude larger than previous estimates. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.