Semiparametric Estimation in Copulas with the Same Marginals

We consider semiparametric multivariate data models based on copula representation of the common distribution function. A copula is characterized by a parameter of association and marginal distribution functions. This parameter and the marginal distributions are unknown. In this article, we study the estimator of the parameter of association in copulas with the marginal distribution functions assumed as nuisance parameters restricted by the assumption that the components are identically distributed. Results of this work could be used to construct special kinds of tests of homogeneity for random vectors having dependent components.     

Pseudo‐likelihood ratio tests for semiparametric multivariate copula model selection

The authors propose pseudo‐likelihood ratio tests for selecting semiparametric multivariate copula models in which the marginal distributions are unspecified, but the copula function is parameterized and can be misspecified. For the comparison of two models, the tests differ depending on whether the two copulas are generalized nonnested or generalized nested. For more than two models, the procedure is built on the reality check test of White (2000). Unlike White (2000), however, the test statistic is automatically standardized for generalized nonnested models (with the benchmark) and ignores generalized nested models asymptotically. The authors illustrate their approach with American insurance claim data.     

Change point detection in SCOMDY models

In this article, we consider the problem of testing for a copula parameter change in semiparametric copula-based multivariate dynamic models which cover ARMA-GARCH models. We construct the test statistics based on a pseudo MLE of the copula parameter and derive its limiting null distribution. Simulation results are provided for illustration.     

Likelihood ratio procedures and tests of fit in parametric and semiparametric copula models with censored data

Copula models for multivariate lifetimes have become widely used in areas such as biomedicine, finance and insurance. This paper fills some gaps in existing methodology for copula parameters and model assessment. We consider procedures based on likelihood and pseudolikelihood ratio statistics and introduce semiparametric maximum likelihood estimation leading to semiparametric versions. For cases where standard asymptotic approximations do not hold, we propose an efficient simulation technique for obtaining p-values. We apply these methods to tests for a copula model, based on embedding it in a larger copula family. It is shown that the likelihood and pseudolikelihood ratio tests are consistent even when the expanded copula model is misspecified. Power comparisons with two other tests of fit indicate that model expansion provides a convenient, powerful and robust approach. The methods are illustrated on an application concerning the time to loss of vision in the two eyes of an individual.     

Semiparametric Regression Estimation in Copula Models

We consider some methods of semiparametric regression estimation in multivariate models when the common distribution function is represented using a copula and the marginals satisfy a generalized regression model using a transfer functional. Sufficient conditions for consistency and joint asymptotic normality of the finite-dimensional parameters are obtained.     

Semiparametric score test for varying copula parameter in Markov time series

This article examines a semiparametric test for checking the constancy of serial dependence via copula models for Markov time series. A semiparametric score test is proposed for testing the constancy of the copula parameter against stochastically varying copula parameter. The asymptotic null distribution of the test is established. A semiparametric bootstrap procedure is employed for the estimation of the variance of the proposed score test. Illustrations are given based on simulated series and historic interest rate data.     

Profile likelihood approaches for semiparametric copula and frailty models for clustered survival data

ABSTRACT

In clustered survival data, the dependence among individual survival times within a cluster has usually been described using copula models and frailty models. In this paper we propose a profile likelihood approach for semiparametric copula models with different cluster sizes. We also propose a likelihood ratio method based on profile likelihood for testing the absence of association parameter (i.e. test of independence) under the copula models, leading to the boundary problem of the parameter space. For this purpose, we show via simulation study that the proposed likelihood ratio method using an asymptotic chi-square mixture distribution performs well as sample size increases. We compare the behaviors of the two models using the profile likelihood approach under a semiparametric setting. The proposed method is demonstrated using two well-known data sets.     

A semiparametric maximum likelihood ratio test for the change point in copula models

In the present paper, a semiparametric maximum-likelihood-type test statistic is proposed and proved to have the same limit null distribution as the classical parametric likelihood one. Under some mild conditions, the limiting law of the proposed test statistic, suitably normalized and centralized, is shown to be double exponential, under the null hypothesis of no change in the parameter of copula models. We also discuss the Gaussian-type approximations for the semiparametric likelihood ratio. The asymptotic distribution of the proposed statistic under specified alternatives is shown to be normal, and an approximation to the power function is given. Simulation results are provided to illustrate the finite sample performance of the proposed statistical tests based on the double exponential and Gaussian-type approximations.     

On the estimation of normal copula discrete regression models using the continuous extension and simulated likelihood

The continuous extension of a discrete random variable is amongst the computational methods used for estimation of multivariate normal copula-based models with discrete margins. Its advantage is that the likelihood can be derived conveniently under the theory for copula models with continuous margins, but there has not been a clear analysis of the adequacy of this method. We investigate the asymptotic and small-sample efficiency of two variants of the method for estimating the multivariate normal copula with univariate binary, Poisson, and negative binomial regressions, and show that they lead to biased estimates for the latent correlations, and the univariate marginal parameters that are not regression coefficients. We implement a maximum simulated likelihood method, which is based on evaluating the multidimensional integrals of the likelihood with randomized quasi-Monte Carlo methods. Asymptotic and small-sample efficiency calculations show that our method is nearly as efficient as maximum likelihood for fully specified multivariate normal copula-based models. An illustrative example is given to show the use of our simulated likelihood method.     

Power and sample size calculation for paired right-censored data based on survival copula models

Sample size determination is essential during the planning phases of clinical trials. To calculate the required sample size for paired right-censored data, the structure of the within-paired correlations needs to be pre-specified. In this article, we consider using popular parametric copula models, including the Clayton, Gumbel, or Frank families, to model the distribution of joint survival times. Under each copula model, we derive a sample size formula based on the testing framework for rank-based tests and non-rank-based tests (i.e., logrank test and Kaplan–Meier statistic, respectively). We also investigate how the power or the sample size was affected by the choice of testing methods and copula model under different alternative hypotheses. In addition to this, we examine the impacts of paired-correlations, accrual times, follow-up times, and the loss to follow-up rates on sample size estimation. Finally, two real-world studies are used to illustrate our method and R code is available to the user.     

Modeling Dependence in High Dimensions With Factor Copulas

This article presents flexible new models for the dependence structure, or copula, of economic variables based on a latent factor structure. The proposed models are particularly attractive for relatively high-dimensional applications, involving 50 or more variables, and can be combined with semiparametric marginal distributions to obtain flexible multivariate distributions. Factor copulas generally lack a closed-form density, but we obtain analytical results for the implied tail dependence using extreme value theory, and we verify that simulation-based estimation using rank statistics is reliable even in high dimensions. We consider “scree” plots to aid the choice of the number of factors in the model. The model is applied to daily returns on all 100 constituents of the S&P 100 index, and we find significant evidence of tail dependence, heterogeneous dependence, and asymmetric dependence, with dependence being stronger in crashes than in booms. We also show that factor copula models provide superior estimates of some measures of systemic risk. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.     

Statistical models for the analysis of controlled trials on acute migraine

Specific efficacy criteria were defined by the International Headache Society for controlled clinical trials on acute migraine. They are derived from the pain profile and the timing of rescue medication intake. We present a methodology to improve the analysis of such trials. Instead of analysing each endpoint separately, we model the joint distribution and derive success rates in any criteria as predictions. We use cumulative regression models for each response at a time and a multivariate normal copula to model the dependence between responses. Parameters are estimated using maximum likelihood. Benefits of the method include a reduction in the number of tests performed and an increase in their power. The method is well suited to dose–response trials from which predictions can be used to select doses and optimize the design of subsequent trials. More generally, our method permits a very flexible modelling of longitudinal series of ordinal data. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Semiparametric ROC surface estimation for continuous diagnostic tests via polytomous logistic regression procedures

In this paper, we propose a semiparametric method of estimating receiver operating characteristic (ROC) surfaces for continuous diagnostic tests under density ratio models. Implementation of our method is easy since the usual polytomous logistic regression procedures in many statistical software packages can be employed. A simulated example is provided to facilitate the implementation of our method. Simulation results show that the proposed semiparametric ROC surface estimator is more efficient than the nonparametric counterpart and the parametric counterpart whether the normality assumption of data holds or not. Moreover, some simulation results on the underlying semiparametric distribution function estimators are also reported. In addition, some discussions on the proposed method as well as analysis of a real data set are provided.     

Eliciting Dirichlet and Gaussian copula prior distributions for multinomial models

In this paper, we propose novel methods of quantifying expert opinion about prior distributions for multinomial models. Two different multivariate priors are elicited using median and quartile assessments of the multinomial probabilities. First, we start by eliciting a univariate beta distribution for the probability of each category. Then we elicit the hyperparameters of the Dirichlet distribution, as a tractable conjugate prior, from those of the univariate betas through various forms of reconciliation using least-squares techniques. However, a multivariate copula function will give a more flexible correlation structure between multinomial parameters if it is used as their multivariate prior distribution. So, second, we use beta marginal distributions to construct a Gaussian copula as a multivariate normal distribution function that binds these marginals and expresses the dependence structure between them. The proposed method elicits a positive-definite correlation matrix of this Gaussian copula. The two proposed methods are designed to be used through interactive graphical software written in Java.     

Local and omnibus goodness-of-fit tests in classical measurement error models

We consider functional measurement error models, i.e. models where covariates are measured with error and yet no distributional assumptions are made about the mismeasured variable. We propose and study a score-type local test and an orthogonal series-based, omnibus goodness-of-fit test in this context, where no likelihood function is available or calculated-i.e. all the tests are proposed in the semiparametric model framework. We demonstrate that our tests have optimality properties and computational advantages that are similar to those of the classical score tests in the parametric model framework. The test procedures are applicable to several semiparametric extensions of measurement error models, including when the measurement error distribution is estimated non-parametrically as well as for generalized partially linear models. The performance of the local score-type and omnibus goodness-of-fit tests is demonstrated through simulation studies and analysis of a nutrition data set.     

A semiparametric estimation of copula models based on the method of moments

Using the classical estimation method of moments, we propose a new semiparametric estimation procedure for multi-parameter copula models. Consistency and asymptotic normality of the obtained estimators are established. By considering an Archimedean copula model, an extensive simulation study, comparing these estimators with the pseudo maximum likelihood, rho-inversion and tau-inversion ones, is carried out. We show that, with regard to the other methods, the moment based estimation is quick and simple to use with reasonable bias and root mean squared error.     

Bayesian bivariate survival analysis using the power variance function copula

Copula models have become increasingly popular for modelling the dependence structure in multivariate survival data. The two-parameter Archimedean family of Power Variance Function (PVF) copulas includes the Clayton, Positive Stable (Gumbel) and Inverse Gaussian copulas as special or limiting cases, thus offers a unified approach to fitting these important copulas. Two-stage frequentist procedures for estimating the marginal distributions and the PVF copula have been suggested by Andersen (Lifetime Data Anal 11:333–350, 2005), Massonnet et al. (J Stat Plann Inference 139(11):3865–3877, 2009) and Prenen et al. (J R Stat Soc Ser B 79(2):483–505, 2017) which first estimate the marginal distributions and conditional on these in a second step to estimate the PVF copula parameters. Here we explore an one-stage Bayesian approach that simultaneously estimates the marginal and the PVF copula parameters. For the marginal distributions, we consider both parametric as well as semiparametric models. We propose a new method to simulate uniform pairs with PVF dependence structure based on conditional sampling for copulas and on numerical approximation to solve a target equation. In a simulation study, small sample properties of the Bayesian estimators are explored. We illustrate the usefulness of the methodology using data on times to appendectomy for adult twins in the Australian NH&MRC Twin registry. Parameters of the marginal distributions and the PVF copula are simultaneously estimated in a parametric as well as a semiparametric approach where the marginal distributions are modelled using Weibull and piecewise exponential distributions, respectively.     

Testing independence based on Bernstein empirical copula and copula density

In this paper we provide three nonparametric tests of independence between continuous random variables based on the Bernstein copula distribution function and the Bernstein copula density function. The first test is constructed based on a Cramér-von Mises divergence-type functional based on the empirical Bernstein copula process. The two other tests are based on the Bernstein copula density and use Cramér-von Mises and Kullback–Leibler divergence-type functionals, respectively. Furthermore, we study the asymptotic null distribution of each of these test statistics. Finally, we consider a Monte Carlo experiment to investigate the performance of our tests. In particular we examine their size and power which we compare with those of the classical nonparametric tests that are based on the empirical distribution function.