Optimal mixed-level k-circulant supersaturated designs

Supersaturated designs (SSDs) offer a potentially useful way to investigate many factors with only few experiments in the preliminary stages of experimentation. This paper explores how to construct E(_fNOD)$E(f_{\mathrm{NOD}})$-optimal mixed-level SSDs using k-cyclic generators. The necessary and sufficient conditions for the existence of mixed-level k-circulant SSDs with the equal occurrence property are provided. Properties of the mixed-level k  -circulant SSDs are investigated, in particular, the sufficient condition under which the generator vector produces an E(_fNOD)$E(f_{\mathrm{NOD}})$-optimal SSD is obtained. Moreover, many new E(_fNOD)$E(f_{\mathrm{NOD}})$-optimal mixed-level SSDs are constructed and listed. The method here generalizes the one proposed by Liu and Dean [2004. k$k$-circulant supersaturated designs. Technometrics 46, 32–43] for two-level SSDs and the one due to Georgiou and Koukouvinos [2006. Multi-level k-circulant supersaturated designs. Metrika 64, 209–220] for the multi-level case.     

Reduced-rank estimation of the difference between two covariance matrices

We consider m×m$m\times m$ covariance matrices, _Σ1${\Sigma }_1$ and _Σ2${\Sigma }_2$, which satisfy _Σ2-_Σ1=Δ${\Sigma }_2-{\Sigma }_1=\Delta$, where Δ$\Delta$ has a specified rank. Maximum likelihood estimators of _Σ1${\Sigma }_1$ and _Σ2${\Sigma }_2$ are obtained when sample covariance matrices having Wishart distributions are available and rank(Δ)$\text{rank}(\Delta )$ is known. The likelihood ratio statistic for a test about the value of rank(Δ)$\text{rank}(\Delta )$ is also given and some properties of its null distribution are obtained. The methods developed in this paper are illustrated through an example.     

Addition of runs to an s-level supersaturated design

The purpose of the present work is to extend the work of Gupta et al. (2010) to s  -level column balanced supersaturated designs. Addition of runs to an existing E(χ²)-optimal$E({\chi }^2)\mathrm{-}\mathrm{optimal}$ supersaturated design and to study the optimality of the resulting design is an important issue. This paper considers the study of the optimality of the resulting design. A lower bound to E(χ²)$E({\chi }^2)$ has been obtained for the extended supersaturated designs. Some examples and a small catalogue of E(χ²)-optimal$E({\chi }^2)\mathrm{-}\mathrm{optimal}$ supersaturated designs are also presented.     

On E(s)-optimal supersaturated designs

A popular measure to assess 2-level supersaturated designs is the E(s²)$E(s^2)$ criterion. In this paper, improved lower bounds on E(s²)$E(s^2)$ are obtained. The same improvement has recently been established by Ryan and Bulutoglu [2007. E(s²)$E(s^2)$-optimal supersaturated designs with good minimax properties. J. Statist. Plann. Inference 137, 2250–2262]. However, our analysis provides more details on precisely when an improvement is possible, which is lacking in Ryan and Bulutoglu [2007. E(s²)$E(s^2)$-optimal supersaturated designs with good minimax properties. J. Statist. Plann. Inference 137, 2250–2262]. The equivalence of the bounds obtained by Butler et al. [2001. A general method of constructing E(s²)$E(s^2)$-optimal supersaturated designs. J. Roy. Statist. Soc. B 63, 621–632] (in the cases where their result applies) and those obtained by Bulutoglu and Cheng [2004. Construction of E(s²)$E(s^2)$-optimal supersaturated designs. Ann. Statist. 32, 1662–1678] is established. We also give two simple methods of constructing E(s²)$E(s^2)$-optimal designs.     

Generalizing Clatworthy group divisible designs

In this paper a neat construction is provided for three new families of group divisible designs that generalize some designs from Clatworthy's table of the only 11 designs with two associate classes that have block size four, three groups, and replication numbers at most 10. In each case (namely, _λ1=4${\lambda }_1=4$ and _λ2=5${\lambda }_2=5$, _λ1=4${\lambda }_1=4$ and _λ2=2${\lambda }_2=2$, and _λ1=8${\lambda }_1=8$ and _λ2=4${\lambda }_2=4$), we have proved that the necessary conditions found are also sufficient for the existence of such GDD's with block size four and three groups, with one possible exception.     

Optimal designs for threshold-determining limiting dilution assays

In common with other non-linear models, the optimal design for a limiting dilution assay (LDA) depends on the value of the unknown parameter, θ$\theta$, in the model. Consequently optimal designs cannot be specified unless some assumptions are made about the possible values of θ$\theta$. If a prior distribution can be specified then a Bayesian approach can be adopted. A proper specification of the Bayesian approach requires the aim of the experiment to be described and quantified through an appropriate utility function. This paper addresses the problem of finding optimal designs for LDAs when the aim is to determine whether θ$\theta$ is above or below a specified threshold, _θ0${\theta }_0$.     

Optimally robust credible sets with a class of priors

We determine a credible set A   that is the “best” with respect to the variation of the prior distribution in a neighborhood Γ$\Gamma$ of the starting prior _π0(θ)${\pi }_0(\theta )$. Among the class of sets with credibility γ$\gamma$ under _π0${\pi }_0$, the “optimally robust” set will be the one which maximizes the minimum probability of including θ$\theta$ as the prior varies over Γ$\Gamma$. This procedure is also Γ-minimax$\Gamma \text{-minimax}$ with respect to the risk function, probability of non-inclusion. We find the optimally robust credible set for three neighborhood classes Γ$\Gamma$, the ε-contamination$\epsilon \text{-contamination}$ class, the density ratio class and the density bounded class. A consequence of this investigation is that the maximum likelihood set is seen to be an optimal credible set from a robustness perspective.     

Truncated linear estimation of a bounded multivariate normal mean

We consider the problem of estimating the mean θ$\theta$ of an _Np(θ,_Ip)${\mathrm{N}}_{\mathrm{p}}(\theta ,I_p)$ distribution with squared error loss ∥δ−θ∥²$\parallel \delta -\theta {\parallel }^2$ and under the constraint ∥θ∥≤m$\parallel \theta \parallel \le m$, for some constant m>0$m>0$. Using Stein's identity to obtain unbiased estimates of risk, Karlin's sign change arguments, and conditional risk analysis, we compare the risk performance of truncated linear estimators with that of the maximum likelihood estimator _δmle${\delta }_{\mathrm{mle}}$. We obtain for fixed (m,p)$(m,p)$ sufficient conditions for dominance. An asymptotic framework is developed, where we demonstrate that the truncated linear minimax estimator dominates _δmle${\delta }_{\mathrm{mle}}$, and where we obtain simple and accurate measures of relative improvement in risk. Numerical evaluations illustrate the effectiveness of the asymptotic framework for approximating the risks for moderate or large values of p.     

Generalization of the order-restricted information criterion for multivariate normal linear models

The generalized order-restricted information criterion (goric) is a model selection criterion which can, up to now, solely be applied to the analysis of variance models and, so far, only evaluate restrictions of the form Rθ≤0$R\theta \le 0$, where θ$\theta$ is a vector of k group means and R   a _cm×k$c_m\times k$ matrix. In this paper, we generalize the goric in two ways: (i) such that it can be applied to t  -variate normal linear models and (ii) such that it can evaluate a more general form of order restrictions: Rθ≤r$R\theta \le r$, where θ$\theta$ is a vector of length tk, r a vector of length c_m, and R   a _cm×tk$c_m\times \mathit{tk}$ matrix of full rank (when r≠0$r\ne 0$). At the end, we illustrate that the goric is easy to implement in a multivariate regression model.     

The use of an identity in Anderson for multivariate multiple testing

Consider the model where there are I$I$ independent multivariate normal treatment populations with p×1$p\times 1$ mean vectors _μi${\mathit{\mu }}_i$, i=1,…,I$i=1,\dots ,I$, and covariance matrix Σ$\Sigma$. Independently the (I+1)$(I+1)$st population corresponds to a control and it too is multivariate normal with mean vector _μI+1${\mathit{\mu }}_{I+1}$ and covariance matrix Σ$\Sigma$. Now consider the following two multiple testing problems.     

A sequential design for a clinical trial with a linear prognostic factor

We study a randomized adaptive design to assign one of the L$L$ treatments to patients who arrive sequentially by means of an urn model. At each stage n$n$, a reward is distributed between treatments. The treatment applied is rewarded according to its response, 0?_Yn?1$0?Y_n?1$, and 1-_Yn$1-Y_n$ is distributed among the other treatments according to their performance until stage n-1$n-1$. Patients can be classified in K+1$K+1$ levels and we assume that the effect of this level in the response to the treatments is linear. We study the asymptotic behavior of the design when the ordinary least square estimators are used as a measure of performance until stage n-1$n-1$.     

Confidence intervals in regression utilizing prior information

We consider a linear regression model with regression parameter β=(_β1,…,_βp)$\beta =({\beta }_1,\dots ,{\beta }_p)$ and independent and identically N(0,σ²)$N(0,{\sigma }^2)$ distributed errors. Suppose that the parameter of interest is θ=a^Tβ$\theta =a^T\beta$ where a$a$ is a specified vector. Define the parameter τ=c^Tβ-t$\tau =c^T\beta -t$ where the vector c$c$ and the number t$t$ are specified and a$a$ and c$c$ are linearly independent. Also suppose that we have uncertain prior information that τ=0$\tau =0$. We present a new frequentist 1-α$1-\alpha$ confidence interval for θ$\theta$ that utilizes this prior information. We require this confidence interval to (a) have endpoints that are continuous functions of the data and (b) coincide with the standard 1-α$1-\alpha$ confidence interval when the data strongly contradict this prior information. This interval is optimal in the sense that it has minimum weighted average expected length where the largest weight is given to this expected length when τ=0$\tau =0$. This minimization leads to an interval that has the following desirable properties. This interval has expected length that (a) is relatively small when the prior information about τ$\tau$ is correct and (b) has a maximum value that is not too large. The following problem will be used to illustrate the application of this new confidence interval. Consider a 2×2$2\times 2$ factorial experiment with 20 replicates. Suppose that the parameter of interest θ$\theta$ is a specified simple   effect and that we have uncertain prior information that the two-factor interaction is zero. Our aim is to find a frequentist 0.95 confidence interval for θ$\theta$ that utilizes this prior information.     

Lattice and Schröder paths with periodic boundaries

We consider paths in the plane with (1,0$1,0$), (0,1$0,1$), and (a,b$a,b$)-steps that start at the origin, end at height n$n$, and stay strictly to the left of a given non-decreasing right boundary. We show that if the boundary is periodic and has slope at most b/a$b/a$, then the ordinary generating function for the number of such paths ending at height n   is algebraic. Our argument is in two parts. We use a simple combinatorial decomposition to obtain an Appell relation or “umbral” generating function, in which the power zⁿ$z^n$ is replaced by a power series of the form zⁿ_φn(z),$z^n{\phi }_n(z),$ where _φn(0)=1.${\phi }_n(0)=1.$ Then we convert (in an explicit way) the umbral generating function to an ordinary generating function by solving a system of linear equations and a polynomial equation. This conversion implies that the ordinary generating function is algebraic. We give several concrete examples, including an alternative way to solve the tennis ball problem.     

Distribution of record statistics in a geometrically increasing population

The probability function and binomial moments of the number _Nn$N_n$ of (upper) records up to time (index) n in a geometrically increasing population are obtained in terms of the signless q-Stirling numbers of the first kind, with q   being the inverse of the proportion λ$\lambda$ of the geometric progression. Further, a strong law of large numbers and a central limit theorem for the sequence of random variables _Nn$N_n$, n=1,2,…,$n=1,2,\dots ,$ are deduced. As a corollary the probability function of the time _Tk$T_k$ of the kth record is also expressed in terms of the signless q  -Stirling numbers of the first kind. The mean of _Tk$T_k$ is obtained as a q  -series with terms of alternating sign. Finally, the probability function of the inter-record time _Wk=_Tk-_Tk-1$W_k=T_k-T_{k-1}$ is obtained as a sum of a finite number of terms of q  -numbers. The mean of _Wk$W_k$ is expressed by a q-series. As k   increases to infinity the distribution of _Wk$W_k$ converges to a geometric distribution with failure probability q. Additional properties of the q-Stirling numbers of the first kind, which facilitate the present study, are derived.