CONSTRUCTION OF RESOLVABLE ROW-COLUMN DESIGNS BASED ON CONTRACTIONS

This paper defines the contraction of a resolvable row‐column design for more than two replicates. It shows that the (M,S)‐optimality criterion for the row‐column designs can be expressed simply in terms of the elements of the row and column incidence matrices of the contraction. This allows the development of a very fast algorithm to construct optimal or near‐optimal resolvable row‐column designs. The performance of such an algorithm is compared with an existing algorithm.     

Reliability estimation based on ranked set sampling

In this paper we consider the problem of estimating the reliability of an exponential component based on a Ranked Set Sample (RSS) of size n. Given the first r observations of that sample, 1≤r≤n, we construct an unbiased estimator for this reliability and we show that these n unbiased estimators are the only ones in a certain class of estimators. The variances of some of these estimators are compared. By viewing the observations of the RSS of size n as the lifetimes of n independent k-out-of-n systems, 1≤k≤n, we are able to utilize known properties of these systems in conjunction with the powerful tools of majorization and Schur functions to derive our results.     

AN ALGORITHM FOR CONSTRUCTING OPTIMAL RESOLVABLE ROW-COLUMN DESIGNS

This paper describes an effective algorithm for constructing optimal or near-optimal resolvable row-column designs (RCDs) with up to 100 treatments. The performance of this algorithm is assessed against 20 2-replicate resolvable RCDs of Patterson & Robinson (1989) and 17 resolvable RCDs based on generalized cyclic designs (GCDs) of Ipinyomi & John (1985). The use of the algorithm to construct RCDs with contiguous replicates is discussed.     

Genetic algorithms and scatter search: unsuspected potentials

We provide a tutorial survey of connections between genetic algorithms and scatter search that have useful implications for developing new methods for optimization problems. The links between these approaches are rooted in principles underlying mathematical relaxations, which became inherited and extended by scatter search. Hybrid methods incorporating elements of genetic algorithms and scatter search are beginning to be explored in the literature, and we demonstrate that the opportunity exists to develop more advanced procedures that make fuller use of scatter search strategies and their recent extensions.     

A new geometric INAR(1) process based on counting series with deflation or inflation of zeros

In this paper, we introduce a new non-negative integer-valued autoregressive time series model based on a new thinning operator, so called generalized zero-modified geometric (GZMG) thinning operator. The first part of the paper is devoted to the distribution, GZMG distribution, which is obtained as the convolution of the zero-modified geometric (ZMG) distributed random variables. Some properties of this distribution are derived. Then, we construct a thinning operator based on the counting processes with ZMG distribution. Finally, an INAR(1) time series model is introduced and its properties including estimation issues are derived and discussed. A small Monte Carlo experiment is conducted to evaluate the performance of maximum likelihood estimators in finite samples. At the end of the paper, we consider an empirical illustration of the introduced INAR(1) model.     

Complement to a comparative analysis of heuristics for the <Emphasis Type="Italic">p</Emphasis>-median problem

A recent comparison of evolutionary, neural network, and scatter search heuristics for solving the p-median problem is completed by (i) gathering or obtaining exact optimal values in order to evaluate errors precisely, and (ii) including results obtained with several variants of a variable neighborhood search (VNS) heuristic. For a first, well-known, series of instances, the average errors of the evolutionary and neural network heuristics are over 10% and more than 1000 times larger than that of VNS. For a second series, this error is about 3% while the errors of the parallel VNS and of a hybrid heuristic are about 0.01% and that of parallel scatter search even smaller.     

Inference for the tail index of a GARCH(1,1) model and an AR(1) model with ARCH(1) errors

For a GARCH(1,1) sequence or an AR(1) model with ARCH(1) errors, one can estimate the tail index by solving an estimating equation with unknown parameters replaced by the quasi maximum likelihood estimation, and a profile empirical likelihood method can be employed to effectively construct a confidence interval for the tail index. However, this requires that the errors of such a model have at least a finite fourth moment. In this article, we show that the finite fourth moment can be relaxed by employing a least absolute deviations estimate for the unknown parameters by noting that the estimating equation for determining the tail index is invariant to a scale transformation of the underlying model.     

Partitioned difference families and almost difference sets

Partitioned difference families (PDFs) were first studied by Ding and Yin in conjunction with the construction of constant composition codes (CCCs). In 2008, Yin et al. presented the constructions of a number of infinite classes of PDFs based on known difference sets in GF(q). In this paper, we further investigate the constructions of PDFs by using known almost difference sets in GF(q), and establish some recursive constructions of PDFs. As their applications, we also get a number of perfect difference systems of sets (DSSs) over Z_q² with q odd prime.     

An algorithm for constructing optimal resolvable incomplete block designs

This paper describes an efficient algorithm for the construction of optimal or near-optimal resolvable incomplete block designs (IBDs) for any number of treatments v < 100. The performance of this algorithm is evaluated against known lattice designs and the 414 or-designs of Patterson & Williams [36]. For the designs under study, it appears that our algorithm is about equally effective as the simulated annealing algorithm of Venables & Eccleston [42]. An example of the use of our algorithm to construct the row (or column) components of resolvable row-column designs is given.     

A note on the optimality of resolvable block designs with unequal block sizes

(M,S)-optimality is used in computer search algorithms as a quick way of filtering out inefficient designs. We show that it does not work well for resolvable designs with unequal block sizes. Instead we suggest the use of a criterion based on the dual design.     

Federal Statistical Coordination Today: An Epilogue as Prologue

A common data mining task is the search for associations in large databases. Here we consider the search for “interestingly large” counts in a large frequency table, having millions of cells, most of which have an observed frequency of 0 or 1. We first construct a baseline or null hypothesis expected frequency for each cell, and then suggest and compare screening criteria for ranking the cell deviations of observed from expected count. A criterion based on the results of fitting an empirical Bayes model to the cell counts is recommended. An example compares these criteria for searching the FDA Spontaneous Reporting System database maintained by the Division of Pharmacovigilance and Epidemiology. In the example, each cell count is the number of reports combining one of 1,398 drugs with one of 952 adverse events (total of cell counts = 4.9 million), and the problem is to screen the drug-event combinations for possible further investigation.     

Balanced Treatment incomplete block (BTIB) designs for comparing treatments with a control: minimal complete sets of generator designs for k = 3, p = 3(1)10

Bechhofer and Tamhane (1981) proposed a new class of incomplete block designs called BTIB designs for comparing p ≥ 2 test treatments with a control treatment in blocks of equal size k < p + 1. All BTIB designs for given (p,k) can be constructed by forming unions of replications of a set of elementary BTIB designs called generator designs for that (p,k). In general, there are many generator designs for given (p,k) but only a small subset (called the minimal complete set) of these suffices to obtain all admissible BTIB designs (except possibly any equivalent ones). Determination of the minimal complete set of generator designs for given (p,k) was stated as an open problem in Bechhofer and Tamhane (1981). In this paper we solve this problem for k = 3. More specifically, we give the minimal complete sets of generator designs for k = 3, p = 3(1)10; the relevant proofs are given only for the cases p = 3(1)6. Some additional combinatorial results concerning BTIB designs are also given.     

Construction of group divisible designs and rectangular designs from resolvable and almost resolvable balanced incomplete block designs

In this paper, we present a general construction of group divisible designs and rectangular designs by utilising resolvable and “almost resolvable” balanced incomplete block designs. As special cases, we obtain the following E-optimal designs: (a) Group divisible (GD) designs with λ₂=λ₁+1 and (b) Rectangular designs with 2 rows and having λ₃=λ₂−1=λ₁+1. Many of the GD designs are optimal among binary designs with regard to all type 1 criteria.     

Improved bridge constructs for stochastic differential equations

We consider the task of generating discrete-time realisations of a nonlinear multivariate diffusion process satisfying an Itô stochastic differential equation conditional on an observation taken at a fixed future time-point. Such realisations are typically termed diffusion bridges. Since, in general, no closed form expression exists for the transition densities of the process of interest, a widely adopted solution works with the Euler–Maruyama approximation, by replacing the intractable transition densities with Gaussian approximations. However, the density of the conditioned discrete-time process remains intractable, necessitating the use of computationally intensive methods such as Markov chain Monte Carlo. Designing an efficient proposal mechanism which can be applied to a noisy and partially observed system that exhibits nonlinear dynamics is a challenging problem, and is the focus of this paper. By partitioning the process into two parts, one that accounts for nonlinear dynamics in a deterministic way, and another as a residual stochastic process, we develop a class of novel constructs that bridge the residual process via a linear approximation. In addition, we adapt a recently proposed construct to a partial and noisy observation regime. We compare the performance of each new construct with a number of existing approaches, using three applications.     

Phi-Divergence Statistics for Testing Linear Hypotheses in Logistic Regression Models

In this paper we introduce and study two new families of statistics for the problem of testing linear combinations of the parameters in logistic regression models. These families are based on the phi-divergence measures. One of them includes the classical likelihood ratio statistic and the other the classical Pearson's statistic for this problem. It is interesting to note that the vector of unknown parameters, in the two new families of phi-divergence statistics considered in this paper, is estimated using the minimum phi-divergence estimator instead of the maximum likelihood estimator. Minimum phi-divergence estimators are a natural extension of the maximum likelihood estimator.     

THE USE OF A CLASS OF FOLDOVER DESIGNS AS SEARCH DESIGNS

It is shown that members of a class of two-level nonorthogonal resolution IV designs with n factors are strongly resolvable search designs when k, the maximum number of two-factor interactions thought possible, equals one; weakly resolvable when k = 2 except when the number of factors is 6; and may not be weakly resolvable when k≥ 3.     

Random search algorithm for optimal mixture experimental design

It is well known that it is difficult to obtain an accurate optimal design for a mixture experimental design with complex constraints. In this article, we construct a random search algorithm which can be used to find the optimal design for mixture model with complex constraints. First, we generate an initial set by the Monte-Carlo method, and then run the random search algorithm to get the optimal set of points. After that, we explain the effectiveness of this method by using two examples.     

ON CONFIDENCE REGIONS OF EMBEDDED MODELS IN REGULAR PARAMETRIC FAMILIES (A GEOMETRIC APPROACH)

Regular parametric families are commonly encountered in statistical problems (e.g. Cox & Hinkley, 1974). In this paper, we propose a differential geometric framework for the embedded models in these families. Our framework may be regarded as an extension of that presented by Bates & Watts (1980) for nonlinear regression models. As an application, we use this geometric framework to derive three kinds of improved approximate confidence regions for the parameter and parameter subsets in terms of curvatures. The results obtained by Hamilton et al. (1982) and Hamilton (1986) are extended to embedded models in regular parametric families.     

Conditionally Reducible Natural Exponential Families and Enriched Conjugate Priors

Consider a standard conjugate family of prior distributions for a vector-parameter indexing an exponential family. Two distinct model parameterizations may well lead to standard conjugate families which are not consistent, i.e. one family cannot be derived from the other by the usual change-of-variable technique. This raises the problem of finding suitable parameterizations that may lead to enriched conjugate families which are more flexible than the traditional ones. The previous remark motivates the definition of a new property for an exponential family, named conditional reducibility. Features of conditionally-reducible natural exponential families are investigated thoroughly. In particular, we relate this new property to the notion of cut, and show that conditionally-reducible families admit a reparameterization in terms of a vector having likelihood-independent components. A general methodology to obtain enriched conjugate distributions for conditionally-reducible families is described in detail, generalizing previous works and more recent contributions in the area. The theory is illustrated with reference to natural exponential families having simple quadratic variance function.     

Comparative analysis of modern optimization tools for the p-median problem

This paper develops a study on different modern optimization techniques to solve the p-median problem. We analyze the behavior of a class of evolutionary algorithm (EA) known as cellular EA (cEA), and compare it against a tailored neural network model and against a canonical genetic algorithm for optimization of the p-median problem. We also compare against existing approaches including variable neighborhood search and parallel scatter search, and show their relative performances on a large set of problem instances. Our conclusions state the advantages of using a cEA: wide applicability, low implementation effort and high accuracy. In addition, the neural network model shows up as being the more accurate tool at the price of a narrow applicability and larger customization effort.