Order restricted Bayesian inference for exponential simple step-stress model

A step-stress model has received a considerable amount of attention in recent years. In the usual step-stress experiment, a stress level is allowed to increase at each step to get rapid failure of the experimental units. The expected lifetime of the experimental unit is shortened as the stress level increases. Although extensive amount of work has been done on step-stress models, not enough attention has been paid to analyze step-stress models incorporating this information. We consider a simple step-stress model and provide Bayesian inference of the unknown parameters under cumulative exposure model assumption. It is assumed that the lifetime of the experimental units are exponentially distributed with different scale parameters at different stress levels. It is further assumed that the stress level increases at each step, hence the expected lifetime decreases. We try to incorporate this restriction using the prior assumptions. It is observed that different censoring schemes can be incorporated very easily under a general setup. Monte Carlo simulations have been performed to see the effectiveness of the proposed method, and two datasets have been analyzed for illustrative purposes.     

Exact inference for a simple step-stress model with Type-I hybrid censored data from the exponential distribution

In reliability and life-testing experiments, the researcher is often interested in the effects of extreme or varying stress factors such as temperature, voltage and load on the lifetimes of experimental units. Step-stress test, which is a special class of accelerated life-tests, allows the experimenter to increase the stress levels at fixed times during the experiment in order to obtain information on the parameters of the life distributions more quickly than under normal operating conditions. In this paper, we consider the simple step-stress model under the exponential distribution when the available data are Type-I hybrid censored. We derive the maximum likelihood estimators (MLEs) of the parameters assuming a cumulative exposure model with lifetimes being exponentially distributed. The exact distributions of the MLEs of parameters are obtained through the use of conditional moment generating functions. We also derive confidence intervals for the parameters using these exact distributions, asymptotic distributions of the MLEs and the parametric bootstrap methods, and assess their performance through a Monte Carlo simulation study. Finally, we present two examples to illustrate all the methods of inference discussed here.     

Exact inference for a simple step-stress model with competing risks for failure from exponential distribution under Type-II censoring

In reliability analysis, accelerated life-testing allows for gradual increment of stress levels on test units during an experiment. In a special class of accelerated life tests known as step-stress tests, the stress levels increase discretely at pre-fixed time points, and this allows the experimenter to obtain information on the parameters of the lifetime distributions more quickly than under normal operating conditions. Moreover, when a test unit fails, there are often more than one fatal cause for the failure, such as mechanical or electrical. In this article, we consider the simple step-stress model under Type-II censoring when the lifetime distributions of the different risk factors are independently exponentially distributed. Under this setup, we derive the maximum likelihood estimators (MLEs) of the unknown mean parameters of the different causes under the assumption of a cumulative exposure model. The exact distributions of the MLEs of the parameters are then derived through the use of conditional moment generating functions. Using these exact distributions as well as the asymptotic distributions and the parametric bootstrap method, we discuss the construction of confidence intervals for the parameters and assess their performance through Monte Carlo simulations. Finally, we illustrate the methods of inference discussed here with an example.     

Asymptotic Comparison Between Constant-stress Testing and Step-stress Testing for Type-I Censored Data from Exponential Distribution

By running the life tests at higher stress levels than normal operating conditions, accelerated life testing quickly yields information on the lifetime distribution of a test unit. The lifetime at the design stress is then estimated through extrapolation using a regression model. In constant-stress testing, a unit is tested at a fixed stress level until failure or the termination time point of the test, while step-stress testing allows the experimenter to gradually increase the stress levels at some pre-fixed time points during the test. In this article, the optimal k-level constant-stress and step-stress accelerated life tests are compared for the exponential failure data under Type-I censoring. The objective is to quantify the advantage of using the step-stress testing relative to the constant-stress one. A log-linear relationship between the mean lifetime parameter and stress level is assumed and the cumulative exposure model holds for the effect of changing stress in step-stress testing. The optimal design point is then determined under C-optimality, D-optimality, and A-optimality criteria. The efficiency of step-stress testing compared to constant-stress testing is discussed in terms of the ratio of optimal objective functions based on the information matrix.     

Inference for a Simple Step-Stress Model with Type-I Censoring and Lognormally Distributed Lifetimes

Accelerated life-testing (ALT) is a very useful technique for examining the reliability of highly reliable products. It allows the experimenter to obtain failure data more quickly at increased stress levels than under normal operating conditions. A step-stress model is one special class of ALT, and in this article we consider a simple step-stress model under the cumulative exposure model with lognormally distributed lifetimes in the presence of Type-I censoring. We then discuss inferential methods for the unknown parameters of the model by the maximum likelihood estimation method. Some numerical methods, such as the Newton–Raphson and quasi-Newton methods, are discussed for solving the corresponding non-linear likelihood equations. Next, we discuss the construction of confidence intervals for the unknown parameters based on (i) the asymptotic normality of the maximum likelihood estimators (MLEs), and (ii) parametric bootstrap resampling technique. A Monte Carlo simulation study is carried out to examine the performance of these methods of inference. Finally, a numerical example is presented in order to illustrate all the methods of inference developed here.     

Exact inference for a simple step-stress model with Type-II hybrid censored data from the exponential distribution

In reliability and life-testing experiments, the researcher is often interested in the effects of extreme or varying stress factors such as temperature, voltage and load on the lifetimes of experimental units. Step-stress test, which is a special class of accelerated life-tests, allows the experimenter to increase the stress levels at fixed times during the experiment in order to obtain information on the parameters of the life distributions more quickly than under normal operating conditions. In this paper, we consider a new step-stress model in which the life-testing experiment gets terminated either at a pre-fixed time (say, _Tm+1$T_{m+1}$) or at a random time ensuring at least a specified number of failures (say, r out of n). Under this model in which the data obtained are Type-II hybrid censored, we consider the case of exponential distribution for the underlying lifetimes. We then derive the maximum likelihood estimators (MLEs) of the parameters assuming a cumulative exposure model with lifetimes being exponentially distributed. The exact distributions of the MLEs of parameters are obtained through the use of conditional moment generating functions. We also derive confidence intervals for the parameters using these exact distributions, asymptotic distributions of the MLEs and the parametric bootstrap methods, and assess their performance through a Monte Carlo simulation study. Finally, we present two examples to illustrate all the methods of inference discussed here.     

Optimal design of accelerated life tests under modified stress loading methods

SUMMARY Most of the previous work on optimal design of accelerated life test (ALT) plans has assumed instantaneous changes in stress levels, which may not be possible or desirable in practice, because of the limited capability of test equipment, possible stress shocks or the presence of undesirable failure modes. We consider the case in which stress levels are changed at a finite rate, and develop two types of ALT plan under the assumptions of exponential lifetimes of test units and type I censoring. One type of plan is the modified step-stress ALT plan, and the other type is the modified constant-stress ALT plan. These two plans are compared in terms of the asymptotic variance of the maximum likelihood estimator of the log mean lifetime for the use condition (i.e. avar\[ln (0)]). Computational results indicate that, for both types of plan, avar\[ln (0)] is not sensitive to the stress-increasing rate R, if R is greater than or equal to 10, say, in the standardized scale. This implies that the proposed stress loading method can be used effectively with little loss in statistical efficiency. In terms of avar\[ln (0)], the modified step-stress ALT generally performs better than the modified constant-stress ALT, unless R or the probability of failure until the censoring time under a certain stress-increasing rate is small. We also compare the progressive-stress ALT plan with the above two modified ALT plans in terms of avar\[ln (0)], using the optimal stress-increasing rate R* determined for the progressivestress ALT plan. We find that the proposed ALTs perform better than the progressivestress ALT for the parameter values considered.     

Multiple step-stress accelerated life test: the tampered failure rate model

Battacharyya and Soejoeti (1989) proposed the tampered failure rate model for step-stress accelerated life testing. In this note, their model is generalized from the simple (2-step) step-stress setting to the multiple (k-step, k > 2) setting. For the parametric setting where the life distribution under constant stress is Weibull, maximum likelihood estimation is investigated and the situation where the different stress levels are equispaced is looked at.     

Planning sequential constant-stress accelerated life tests with stepwise loaded auxiliary acceleration factor

This article presents a design approach for sequential constant-stress accelerated life tests (ALT) with an auxiliary acceleration factor (AAF). The use of an AAF, if it exists, is to further amplify the failure probability of highly reliability testing items at low stress levels while maintaining an acceptable degree of extrapolation for reliability inference. Based on a Bayesian design criterion, the optimal plan optimizes the sample allocation, stress combination, as well as the loading profile of the AAF. In particular, a step-stress loading profile based on an appropriate cumulative exposure (CE) model is chosen for the AAF such that the initial auxiliary stress will not be too harsh. A case study, providing the motivation and practical importance of our study, is presented to illustrate the proposed planning approach.     

Nonparametric Predictive Multiple Comparisons of Lifetime Data

We consider lifetime experiments to compare units from different groups, where the units’ lifetimes may be right censored. Nonparametric predictive inference for comparison of multiple groups is presented, in particular lower and upper probabilities for the event that a specific group will provide the largest next lifetime. We include the practically relevant consideration that the overall lifetime experiment may be terminated at an early stage, leading to simultaneous right-censoring of all units still in the experiment.     

Inference for step-stress accelerated life tests

In this paper we consider the more realistic aspect of accelerated life testing wherein the stress on an unfailed item is allowed to increase at a preassigned test time. Such tests are known as step-stress tests. Our approach is nonparametric in that we do not make any assumptions about the underlying distribution of life lengths. We introduce a model for step-stress testing which is based on the ideas of shock models and of wear processes. This model unifies and generalizes two previously proposed models for step-stress testing. We propose an estimator for the life distribution under use conditions stress and show that this estimator is strongly consistent.     

Optimum M-step,step-stress design with K stress variables

Most of the available literature on accelerated life testing deals with tests that use only one accelerating variable and no other explanatory variables. Frequently, however, there is a need to use more than one accelerating or other experimental variables. Examples include a test of capacitors at higher than usual levels of temperature and voltage, and a test of circuit boards at higher than usual levels of temperature, humidity, and voltage. M-step, step-stress models are extended to include k stress variables. Optimum M-step, step-stress designs with k stress variables are found. The polynomial model is considered as a special case, and a lack of fit test is discussed. Also a goodness-of-fit test is proposed and the appropriateness of using its asymptotic chi-square distribution for small samples is shown.     

Accelerated life tests under competing weibull causes of failure

Accelerated life testing of a product under more severe than normal conditions is cawiionly used to reduce test time and cost. Data collected at such accelerated conditions is used to obtain estimates of parameters of a stress translation function which is then used to make inference about the product's, per" formance under normal conditions. This problem is considered when the product is a p component series system with WeibuH distributed component lifetimes liaving a caimon shape parameter. A general stress translation function is used and estimates of model parameters are obtained for various censoring schemes.     

Optimum constant-stress life test plans for Pareto distribution under type-I censoring

The paper considers the case of constant-stress partially accelerated life testing (CSPALT) when two stress levels are involved under type-I censoring. The lifetimes of test items are assumed to follow a two-parameter Pareto lifetime distribution. Maximum-likelihood method is used to estimate the parameters of CSPALT model. Confidence intervals for the model parameters are constructed. Optimum CSPALT plans that determine the best choice of the proportion of test units allocated to each stress are developed. Such optimum test plans minimize the generalized asymptotic variance of the maximum-likelihood estimators of the model parameters. For illustration, Monte Carlo simulation studies are presented.     

Planning step-stress test under Type-I censoring for the exponential case

We consider in this work a k-level step-stress accelerated life-test (ALT) experiment with unequal duration steps τ=(τ₁, …, τ_k). Censoring is allowed only at the change-stress point in the final stage. An exponential failure time distribution with mean life that is a log-linear function of stress, along with a cumulative exposure model, is considered as the working model. The problem of choosing the optimal τ is addressed using the variance-optimality criterion. Under this setting, we then show that the optimal k-level step-stress ALT model with unequal duration steps reduces just to a 2-level step-stress ALT model.     

PREDICTION FOR EXPONENTIAL LIFETIMES BASED ON STEP-STRESS TESTING

ABSTRACT

This paper presents methods for constructing prediction limits for a step-stress model in accelerated life testing. An exponential life distribution with a mean that is a log-linear function of stress, and a cumulative exposure model are assumed. Two prediction problems are discussed. One concerns the prediction of the life at a design stress, and the other concerns the prediction of a future life during the step-stress testing. Both predictions require the knowledge of some model parameters. When estimates for the model parameters are available, a calibration method based on simulations is proposed for correcting the prediction intervals (regions) obtained by treating the parameter estimates as the true parameter values. Finally, a numerical example is given to illustrate the prediction procedure.     

Bayesian Analysis of Masked Data in Step-stress Accelerated Life Testing

This article considers a k level step-stress accelerated life testing (ALT) on series system products, where independent Weibull-distributed lifetimes are assumed for the components. Due to cost considerations or environmental restrictions, causes of system failures are masked and type-I censored observations might occur in the collected data. Bayesian approach combined with auxiliary variables is developed for estimating the parameters of the model. Further, the reliability and hazard rate functions of the system and components are estimated at a specified time at use stress level. The proposed method is illustrated through a numerical example based on two priors and various masking probabilities.     

Constant Stress Accelerated Life Test on a Multiple-Component Series System under Weibull Lifetime Distributions

We will discuss the reliability analysis of the constant stress accelerated life test on a series system connected with multiple components under independent Weibull lifetime distributions whose scale parameters are log-linear in the level of the stress variable. The system lifetimes are collected under Type I censoring but the components that cause the systems to fail may or may not be observed. The data are so called masked for the latter case. Maximum likelihood approach and the Bayesian method are considered when the data are masked. Statistical inference on the estimation of the underlying model parameters as well as the mean time to failure and the reliability function will be addressed. Simulation study for a three-component case shows that Bayesian analysis outperforms the maximum likelihood approach especially when the data are highly masked.     

Maximum likelihood estimation of the parameters of a multiple step-stress model from the Birnbaum-Saunders distribution under time-constraint: A comparative study

The cumulative exposure model (CEM) is a commonly used statistical model utilized to analyze data from a step-stress accelerated life testing which is a special class of accelerated life testing (ALT). In practice, researchers conduct ALT to: (1) determine the effects of extreme levels of stress factors (e.g., temperature) on the life distribution, and (2) to gain information on the parameters of the life distribution more rapidly than under normal operating (or environmental) conditions. In literature, researchers assume that the CEM is from well-known distributions, such as the Weibull family. This study, on the other hand, considers a p-step-stress model with q stress factors from the two-parameter Birnbaum-Saunders distribution when there is a time constraint on the duration of the experiment. In this comparison paper, we consider different frameworks to numerically compute the point estimation for the unknown parameters of the CEM using the maximum likelihood theory. Each framework implements at least one optimization method; therefore, numerical examples and extensive Monte Carlo simulations are considered to compare and numerically examine the performance of the considered estimation frameworks.     

Bayesian analysis for step-stress accelerated life testing using weibull proportional hazard model

In this paper, we present a Bayesian analysis for the Weibull proportional hazard (PH) model used in step-stress accelerated life testings. The key mathematical and graphical difference between the Weibull cumulative exposure (CE) model and the PH model is illustrated. Compared with the CE model, the PH model provides more flexibility in fitting step-stress testing data and has the attractive mathematical properties of being desirable in the Bayesian framework. A Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm with adaptive rejection sampling technique is used for posterior inference. We demonstrate the performance of this method on both simulated and real datasets.