Asymptotic expansions of the null distributions of some test statistics for profile analysis in general distributions

This paper discusses asymptotic expansions for the null distributions of some test statistics for profile analysis under non-normality. It is known that the null distributions of these statistics converge to chi-square distribution under normality [Siotani, M., 1956. On the distributions of the Hotelling's T²$T^2$-statistics. Ann. Inst. Statist. Math. Tokyo 8, 1–14; Siotani, M., 1971. An asymptotic expansion of the non-null distributions of Hotelling's generalized T²$T^2$-statistic. Ann. Math. Statist. 42, 560–571]. We extend this result by obtaining asymptotic expansions under general distributions. Moreover, the effect of non-normality is also considered. In order to obtain all the results, we make use of matrix manipulations such as direct products and symmetric tensor, rather than usual elementwise tensor notation.     

Some properties of the generalized TTT transform

Recently Li and Shaked [2007. A general family of univariate stochastic orders. J. Statist. Plann. Inference 137, 3601–3610] introduced the generalized total time on test (GTTT) transform with respect to a given function ?$?$. In this paper we study some properties of it which are related with stochastic orderings. A concept of Lehmann and Rojo [1992. Invariant directional orderings. Ann. Statist. 20, 2100–2110] is applied to a new setting and the GTTT transform is used to define invariance properties and distances of some stochastic orders. Iterations of the GTTT transforms are also studied and their relations with exponential mixtures of gamma distributions are established.     

On the detection of changes in autoregressive time series,II. Resampling procedures

We study an autoregressive time series model with a possible change in the regression parameters. Approximations to the critical values for change-point tests are obtained through various bootstrapping methods. Theoretical results show that the bootstrapping procedures have the same limiting behavior as their asymptotic counterparts discussed in Hušková et al. [2007. On the detection of changes in autoregressive time series, I. Asymptotics. J. Statist. Plann. Inference 137, 1243–1259]. In fact, a small simulation study illustrates that the bootstrap tests behave better than the original asymptotic tests if performance is measured by the α$\alpha$- and β$\beta$-errors, respectively.     

A bias correction and acceleration approach for the problem of regions

For testing the problem of regions in the space of distribution functions, this paper considers approaches to modify the bootstrap probability to be a second-order accurate p$p$-value based on the familiar bias correction and acceleration method. It is shown that Shimodaira's [2004a. Approximately unbiased tests of regions using multistep-multiscale bootstrap resampling. Ann. Statist. 32, 2616–2641] twostep-multiscale bootstrap method works even in the problem of regions in functional space. In this paper the bias correction quantity is estimated by his onestep-multiscale bootstrap method. Instead of using the twostep-multiscale bootstrap method, the acceleration constant is estimated by a newly proposed jackknife method which requires first-level bootstrap resamplings only. Some numerical examples are illustrated, in which an application to testing significance in model selection is included.     

Invariance of generalized wordlength patterns

The generalized wordlength pattern (GWLP) introduced by Xu and Wu [2001. Generalized minimum aberration for asymmetrical fractional factorial designs. Ann. Statist. 29, 1066–1077] for an arbitrary fractional factorial design allows one to extend the use of the minimum aberration criterion to such designs. Ai and Zhang [2004. Projection justification of generalized minimum aberration for asymmetrical fractional factorial designs. Metrika 60, 279–285] defined the J$J$-characteristics of a design and showed that they uniquely determine the design. While both the GWLP and the J$J$-characteristics require indexing the levels of each factor by a cyclic group, we see that the definitions carry over with appropriate changes if instead one uses an arbitrary abelian group. This means that the original definitions rest on an arbitrary choice of group structure. We show that the GWLP of a design is independent of this choice, but that the J$J$-characteristics are not. We briefly discuss some implications of these results.     

Tests for assessment of agreement using probability criteria

For the assessment of agreement using probability criteria, we obtain an exact test, and for sample sizes exceeding 30, we give a bootstrap-t$t$ test that is remarkably accurate. We show that for assessing agreement, the total deviation index approach of Lin [2000. Total deviation index for measuring individual agreement with applications in laboratory performance and bioequivalence. Statist. Med. 19, 255–270] is not consistent and may not preserve its asymptotic nominal level, and that the coverage probability approach of Lin et al. [2002. Statistical methods in assessing agreement: models, issues and tools. J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 97, 257–270] is overly conservative for moderate sample sizes. We also show that the nearly unbiased test of Wang and Hwang [2001. A nearly unbiased test for individual bioequivalence problems using probability criteria. J. Statist. Plann. Inference 99, 41–58] may be liberal for large sample sizes, and suggest a minor modification that gives numerically equivalent approximation to the exact test for sample sizes 30 or less. We present a simple and accurate sample size formula for planning studies on assessing agreement, and illustrate our methodology with a real data set from the literature.     

Ordered ranked set samples and applications to inference

Ranked set sampling (RSS) was first proposed by McIntyre [1952. A method for unbiased selective sampling, using ranked sets. Australian J. Agricultural Res. 3, 385–390] as an effective way to estimate the unknown population mean. Chuiv and Sinha [1998. On some aspects of ranked set sampling in parametric estimation. In: Balakrishnan, N., Rao, C.R. (Eds.), Handbook of Statistics, vol. 17. Elsevier, Amsterdam, pp. 337–377] and Chen et al. [2004. Ranked Set Sampling—Theory and Application. Lecture Notes in Statistics, vol. 176. Springer, New York] have provided excellent surveys of RSS and various inferential results based on RSS. In this paper, we use the idea of order statistics from independent and non-identically distributed (INID) random variables to propose ordered ranked set sampling (ORSS) and then develop optimal linear inference based on ORSS. We determine the best linear unbiased estimators based on ORSS (BLUE-ORSS) and show that they are more efficient than BLUE-RSS for the two-parameter exponential, normal and logistic distributions. Although this is not the case for the one-parameter exponential distribution, the relative efficiency of the BLUE-ORSS (to BLUE-RSS) is very close to 1. Furthermore, we compare both BLUE-ORSS and BLUE-RSS with the BLUE based on order statistics from a simple random sample (BLUE-OS). We show that BLUE-ORSS is uniformly better than BLUE-OS, while BLUE-RSS is not as efficient as BLUE-OS for small sample sizes (n<5$n<5$).     

Some properties of extreme stable laws and related infinitely divisible random variables

In the course of studying the moment sequence {nⁿ:n=0,1,…}$\{n^n:n=0,1,\dots \}$, Eaton et al. [1971. On extreme stable laws and some applications. J. Appl. Probab. 8, 794–801] have shown that this sequence, which is, indeed, the moment sequence of a log-extreme stable law with characteristic exponent γ=1$\gamma =1$, corresponds to a scale mixture of exponential distributions and hence to a distribution with decreasing failure rate. Following essentially the approach of Shanbhag et al. [1977. Some further results in infinite divisibility. Math. Proc. Cambridge Philos. Soc. 82, 289–295] we show that, under certain conditions, log-extreme stable laws with characteristic exponent γ∈[1,2)$\gamma \in [1,2)$ are scale mixtures of exponential distributions and hence are infinitely divisible and have decreasing failure rates. In addition, we study the moment problem associated with the log-extreme stable laws with characteristic exponent γ∈(0,2]$\gamma \in (0,2]$ and throw further light on the existing literature on the subject. As a by-product, we show that generalized Poisson and generalized negative binomial distributions are mixed Poisson distributions. Finally, we address some relevant questions on structural aspects of infinitely divisible distributions, and make new observations, including in particular that certain results appearing in Steutel and van Harn [2004. Infinite Divisibility of Probability Distributions on the Real Line. Marcel Dekker, New York] have links with the Wiener–Hopf factorization met in the theory of random walk.     

On the distribution of the adaptive LASSO estimator

We study the distribution of the adaptive LASSO estimator [Zou, H., 2006. The adaptive LASSO and its oracle properties. J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 101, 1418–1429] in finite samples as well as in the large-sample limit. The large-sample distributions are derived both for the case where the adaptive LASSO estimator is tuned to perform conservative model selection as well as for the case where the tuning results in consistent model selection. We show that the finite-sample as well as the large-sample distributions are typically highly nonnormal, regardless of the choice of the tuning parameter. The uniform convergence rate is also obtained, and is shown to be slower than n^-1/2$n^{-1/2}$ in case the estimator is tuned to perform consistent model selection. In particular, these results question the statistical relevance of the ‘oracle’ property of the adaptive LASSO estimator established in Zou [2006. The adaptive LASSO and its oracle properties. J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 101, 1418–1429]. Moreover, we also provide an impossibility result regarding the estimation of the distribution function of the adaptive LASSO estimator. The theoretical results, which are obtained for a regression model with orthogonal design, are complemented by a Monte Carlo study using nonorthogonal regressors.     

On the equivalence of three estimators for dispersion effects in unreplicated two-level factorial designs

Box and Meyer [1986. Dispersion effects from fractional designs. Technometrics 28(1), 19–27] were the first to consider identifying both location and dispersion effects from unreplicated two-level fractional factorial designs. Since the publication of their paper a number of different procedures (both iterative and non-iterative) have been proposed for estimating the location and dispersion effects. An overview and a critical analysis of most of these procedures is given by Brenneman and Nair [2001. Methods for identifying dispersion effects in unreplicated factorial experiments: a critical analysis and proposed strategies. Technometrics 43(4), 388–405]. Under a linear structure for the dispersion effects, non-iterative estimation methods for the dispersion effects were proposed by Brenneman and Nair [2001. Methods for identifying dispersion effects in unreplicated factorial experiments: a critical analysis and proposed strategies. Technometrics 43(4), 388–405], Liao and Iyer [2000. Optimal 2^n-p$2^{n-p}$ fractional factorial designs for dispersion effects under a location-dispersion model. Comm. Statist. Theory Methods 29(4), 823–835] and Wiklander [1998. A comparison of two estimators of dispersion effects. Comm. Statist. Theory Methods 27(4), 905–923] (see also Wiklander and Holm [2003. Dispersion effects in unreplicated factorial designs. Appl. Stochastic. Models Bus. Ind. 19(1), 13–30]). We prove that for two-level factorial designs the proposed estimators are different representations of a single estimator. The proof uses the framework of Seely [1970a. Linear spaces and unbiased estimation. Ann. Math. Statist. 41, 1725–1734], in which quadratic estimators are expressed as inner products of symmetric matrices.     

Bayesian design in queues: An application to aeronautic maintenance

We exploit Bayesian criteria for designing M/M/c//r$M/M/c//r$ queueing systems with spares. For illustration of our approach we use a real problem from aeronautic maintenance, where the numbers of repair crews and spare planes must be sufficiently large to meet the necessary operational capacity. Bayesian guarantees for this to happen can be given using predictive or posterior distributions.     

Multivariate Matsumoto–Yor property is rather restrictive

Matsumoto and Yor [2001. An analogue of Pitman's 2M-X$2M-X$ theorem for exponential Wiener functionals. Part II: the role of the GIG laws. Nagoya Math. J. 162, 65–86] discovered an interesting invariance property of a product of the generalized inverse Gaussian (GIG) and the gamma distributions. For univariate random variables or symmetric positive definite random matrices it is a characteristic property for this pair of distributions. It appears that for random vectors the Matsumoto–Yor property characterizes only very special families of multivariate GIG and gamma distributions: components of the respective random vectors are grouped into independent subvectors, each subvector having linearly dependent components. This complements the version of the multivariate Matsumoto–Yor property on trees and related characterization obtained in Massam and Weso?owski [2004. The Matsumoto–Yor property on trees. Bernoulli 10, 685–700].     

An asymptotically distribution-free test of symmetry

A procedure, based on sample spacings, is proposed for testing whether a univariate distribution is symmetric about some unknown value. The proposed test is a modification of a sign test suggested by Antille and Kersting [1977. Tests for symmetry. Z. Wahrscheinlichkeitstheorie verw. Gebiete 39, 235–255], but unlike Antille and Kersting's test, our modified test is asymptotically distribution-free and is usable in practice. A simulation study indicates that the proposed test maintains the nominal level of significance, α$\alpha$ fairly accurately even for samples of size as small as 20, and a comparison with the classical test based on sample coefficient of skewness, shows that our test has good power for detecting different asymmetric distributions.     

Two sets of isotones for comparing tests of exponentiality

Isotones   are a deterministic graphical device introduced by Mudholkar et al. [1991. A graphical procedure for comparing goodness-of-fit tests. J. Roy. Statist. Soc. B 53, 221–232], in the context of comparing some tests of normality. An isotone of a test is a contour of p$p$ values of the test applied to “ideal samples”, called profiles, from a two-shape-parameter family representing the null and the alternative distributions of the parameter space. The isotone is an adaptation of Tukey's sensitivity curves, a generalization of Prescott's stylized sensitivity contours, and an alternative to the isodynes   of Stephens. The purpose of this paper is two fold. One is to show that the isotones can provide useful qualitative information regarding the behavior of the tests of distributional assumptions other than normality. The other is to show that the qualitative conclusions remain the same from one two-parameter family of alternatives to another. Towards this end we construct and interpret the isotones of some tests of the composite hypothesis of exponentiality, using the profiles of two Weibull extensions, the generalized Weibull and the exponentiated Weibull families, which allow IFR, DFR, as well as unimodal and bathtub failure rate alternatives. Thus, as a by-product of the study, it is seen that a test due to Csörg? et al. [1975. Application of characterizations in the area of goodness-of-fit. In: Patil, G.P., Kotz, S., Ord, J.K. (Eds.), Statistical Distributions in Scientific Work, vol. 2. Reidel, Boston, pp. 79–90], and Gnedenko's Q(r)$Q(r)$ test [1969. Mathematical Methods of Reliability Theory. Academic Press, New York], are appropriate for detecting monotone failure rate alternatives, whereas a bivariate F$F$ test due to Lin and Mudholkar [1980. A test of exponentiality based on the bivariate F$F$ distribution. Technometrics 22, 79–82] and their entropy test [1984. On two applications of characterization theorems to goodness-of-fit. Colloq. Math. Soc. Janos Bolyai 45, 395–414] can detect all alternatives, but are especially suitable for nonmonotone failure rate alternatives.     

On E(s)-optimal supersaturated designs

A popular measure to assess 2-level supersaturated designs is the E(s²)$E(s^2)$ criterion. In this paper, improved lower bounds on E(s²)$E(s^2)$ are obtained. The same improvement has recently been established by Ryan and Bulutoglu [2007. E(s²)$E(s^2)$-optimal supersaturated designs with good minimax properties. J. Statist. Plann. Inference 137, 2250–2262]. However, our analysis provides more details on precisely when an improvement is possible, which is lacking in Ryan and Bulutoglu [2007. E(s²)$E(s^2)$-optimal supersaturated designs with good minimax properties. J. Statist. Plann. Inference 137, 2250–2262]. The equivalence of the bounds obtained by Butler et al. [2001. A general method of constructing E(s²)$E(s^2)$-optimal supersaturated designs. J. Roy. Statist. Soc. B 63, 621–632] (in the cases where their result applies) and those obtained by Bulutoglu and Cheng [2004. Construction of E(s²)$E(s^2)$-optimal supersaturated designs. Ann. Statist. 32, 1662–1678] is established. We also give two simple methods of constructing E(s²)$E(s^2)$-optimal designs.     

Stationary mixture transition distribution (MTD) models via predictive distributions

This paper combines two ideas to construct autoregressive processes of arbitrary order. The first idea is the construction of first order stationary processes described in Pitt et al. [(2002). Constructing first order autoregressive models via latent processes. Scand. J. Statist.29, 657–663] and the second idea is the construction of higher order processes described in Raftery [(1985). A model for high order Markov chains. J. Roy. Statist. Soc. B.47, 528–539]. The resulting models provide appealing alternatives to model non-linear and non-Gaussian time series.