Limited Income Mobility: Empirical Evidence from Korea

Longitudinal child cohort studies collect large amounts of information about children’s families and the types of activities they participate in. With such a broad array of information to select from, researchers investigating aspects of the family environment may be overwhelmed by the choices available if they only need summary measures reflecting domains of the family environment. Using data from the Longitudinal Study of Australian Children, this study aimed to derive and assess summary indices of three domains of the family environment, including a Family Stress Index, Home Education Index and Parenting Index. Indices were derived by identifying a set of candidate indicators, dichotomising the indicators to determine elements of risk, then averaging across the dichotomised items to create measures that captured cumulative risk. Assessments of the three indices suggest that the measures are consistent across time, and have good predictive validity with socioeconomic measures and assessments of children’s social-emotional wellbeing and learning outcomes. Structural equation models estimating children’s outcomes suggested that models using the indices had comparable model fit to models using the broader array of variables used to construct the indices, but the Parenting Index in particular explained less variation in children’s problem behaviour outcomes. Overall, the family environment indices derived in this study may be useful for researchers wishing to simplify complex models or explore the circumstances of children exposed to multiple risks, but less useful in analyses where the primary goal is to explain variance in children’s developmental outcomes.     

Quality of Life in Jasper,Alberta

This paper describes and explains citizen beliefs andattitudes about the quality of life in Jasper, Albertain the summer of 1997. We report on 447 surveyrespondents' satisfaction with a wide variety ofaspects of their community and their lives, the bestand worst things about living in Jasper, and thethings they would change first to improve the qualityof their lives. There was not much enthusiasm foruse-fees or the value received from tax dollars.Fifteen new indices of satisfaction with fundamentalaspects of people's lives were created. Happiness,life satisfaction and overall satisfaction with thequality of life were explained from a limited set of14 variables, providing comparisons with results fromseven other surveys taken over nearly 20 years.Finally, we used a simple linear model to account for63% of the variance in life satisfaction scores, 44%of the variance in satisfaction with the quality oflife scores and 37% of the variance in happinessscores.     

Concepts of aggregation and their quantification: A critical review with some new results and applications

Summary Various indices of spatial patterns based on plot counts are reviewed for theoretical population models appropriate to ecological studies. It is seen that many of the indices proposed in the literature are essentially equivalent to either the index ω= σ²/μ or to the index γ= (σ²-μ)/μ², thus providing a variety of motiviations and interpretations of these two indices as measures of spatial patterns. A vector approach to measuring spatial patterns which suggests both a unifying relationship between these indices and an extension of them is proposed. This leads to an interpretation of the measures of spatial patterns in terms of the transition probabilities of a pure birth process. Part of a Doctoral Dissertation of the junior author at the Pennsylvania State University.     

Estimates of Spatial Prices in India and Their Sensitivity to Alternative Estimation Methods and Choice of Commodities

This paper provides Indian evidence on sub-national PPPs that point to considerable spatial price heterogeneity within the country, based on Indian National Sample Survey (NSS) data. The prices of various commodities have been generated from the household specific unit values obtained from the information on expenditures and quantities from the NSS unit records. This paper shows that the CPD model, proposed in the cross country context, can be adapted to the household context to estimate spatial prices in the intra country context. The proposed CPD based model is shown to be formally equivalent to certain well known fixed weight price indices under certain parametric configurations. The empirical contribution includes a systematic comparison between the spatial price indices from alternative models, namely the CPD and utility based models, and the result that the utility based methods point to a much greater extent of spatial price heterogeneity than is suggested by the CPD type models. The results also record the sensitivity of the spatial price indices to the choice of commodities in the utility based approach. The pairwise comparison of estimates suggests that commodity selection may be more important than model selection in its impact on the spatial price estimates, though the latter is important as well. The study provides estimates of rural–urban differentials in spatial price indices that suggest some interesting differences between the constituent states. The results make a strong case for further research on the topic of sub-national PPPs in the context of large heterogeneous countries.     

Precision,bias, and uncertainty for state population forecasts: an exploratory analysis of time series models

Many researchers have used time series models to construct population forecasts and prediction intervals at the national level, but few have evaluated the accuracy of their forecasts or the out-of-sample validity of their prediction intervals. Fewer still have developed models for subnational areas. In this study, we develop and evaluate six ARIMA time series models for states in the United States. Using annual population estimates from 1900 to 2000 and a variety of launch years, base periods, and forecast horizons, we construct population forecasts for four states chosen to reflect a range of population size and growth rate characteristics. We compare these forecasts with population counts for the corresponding years and find precision, bias, and the width of prediction intervals to vary by state, launch year, model specification, base period, and forecast horizon. Furthermore, we find that prediction intervals based on some ARIMA models provide relatively accurate forecasts of the distribution of future population counts but prediction intervals based on other models do not. We conclude that there is some basis for optimism regarding the possibility that ARIMA models might be able to produce realistic prediction intervals to accompany population forecasts, but a great deal of work remains to be done before we can draw any firm conclusions.     

Effects of Age Shift on the Tempo and Quantum of Non-Repeatable Events

Effects of age shift on the tempo and quantum of non-repeatable demographic events are examined. The purpose is to develop a period index theory based on the survival model and to provide a mathematically consistent interpretation of Bongaarts and Feeney's tempo adjustment arguments. The survival model for non-repeatable events is introduced. In the time-inhomogeneous case, three types of period survival models are considered. McKendrick equation is used to formulate the risk population dynamics. The tempo and quantum indices for three period survival models are computed when the period age shift occurs for the hazard, the incidence, and the survival rates. Bongaarts and Feeney's tempo adjustment arguments are consistently based on the scenario of the period age shift on the survival rate, and they give translation formulae between period indices without referring to cohort. Traditional demographic translation formulae between cohort and period indices are reviewed to clarify differences between cohort- and period-oriented translation procedures.     

An Overview and Evaluation of Composite Indices of Development

The search for alternative indicators of development has witnessedthe development of a variety of composite indices of development. Theseindices integrate various social, political and economic aspects ofdevelopment in measurement. This paper presents an overview andevaluation of composite indices of development in terms of certain broaddimensions of measurement. In terms of method and technique, compositeindices are generally additive ones with equally weighted componentsconsisting of variables selected in an ad hoc manner. Numerouscriticisms have been leveled at these methods employed in compositeindexing. Composite indices are mainly quantitative insofar as theindices are all presented in numerical format. Composite indices aresubject to subjectivity despite the relative objectivity of the methodsemployed in composite indexing. Composite indices are of a cardinalnature, but remain ordinal insofar as differences in index values cannotbe interpreted meaningfully. The multidimensionality of compositeindices represents one of their main advantages. Indices representaggregate measures of a combination of complex development phenomena.The comparative application of composite indices of development overspace and time remains problematic. Composite indices generally combinemeasures of ends and means. In respect of method and technique,composite indexing is relatively complex. Composite indices arerelatively flexible, because changes in selection, scaling, weightingand aggregation can be effected readily, albeit at the cost ofcomparability. Composite indices perform relatively well in terms ofcross-national availability, but few indices perform well in terms ofinter-temporal availability. On the strength of the systematic positiveassociation between income and popular composite indices such as theHDI, many have claimed that these indices represent no real contributionto the literature on indicators research. Composite indices,furthermore, are often considered to be ideological statements ratherthan practically functional indicators. Yet, composite indices representuseful supplements to income-based development indicators. These indicesremain invaluable in terms of their ability to simplify complexmeasurement constructs, to focus attention and to catch the eye, thusenhancing their political appeal.     

Refining the Conceptualization and Measurement of Women’s Empowerment in Sub-Saharan Africa Using Data from the 2013 Nigerian Demographic and Health Survey

The measurement of women’s empowerment has long eluded academics and practitioners alike. A key challenge relates to the way researchers construct measures of empowerment, pairing indicators together in either composite indices, or multiple dimensions. This study tests three commonly found measurement models of women’s empowerment using data from the 2013 Nigerian Demographic and Health Survey. Model fit statistics indicate that a seven factor first order Functional Scales of Empowerment model best fits the data. Implications following from this study’s findings include that simplification into composite indices, a commonly used method to aggregate indicators of empowerment may lead to erroneous conclusions regarding the effect of empowerment on development and health outcomes and hamper comparative research. The results from this study contribute to the highly important and often ignored discussion regarding measurement of women’s empowerment.     

The economic measurement and determinants of diversity

This paper has a 2-fold objective: (1) To introduce a measure that would be of general applicability in measuring diversity in different institutions. (2) To identify the determinants of diversity in child-care centers and, in particular, to examine whether the for-profit sector is less diverse than the not-for-profit sector in the child-care industry as the statistics suggest. Using our measure, we isolate factors that significantly influence diversity by using an economic model that makes diversity a decision variable of a firm. Two measures of diversity are suggested: absolute diversity and relative diversity (diversity relative to the surrounding community). To select a suitable index, the Herfindahl measure of concentration is considered relative to several suitable ecological indices measuring species diversity, and found to be virtually identical to such indices. Thus theH-index is used in both absolute and relative measures. Empirical estimation of both absolute and relative diversity equations use probability models and isolate factors that significantly influence both absolute diversity of child-care centers as well as their diversity relative to their respective counties. The data used is the recently released Profile of Child-Care Settings collected by the Mathematica Policy Research.     

A multivariate analysis of homogamy in Montevideo,Uruguay

This paper develops multivariate models to describe homogamy or, more generally, marriage preferences, for corresponding characteristics of brides and grooms. The purpose of these models is to obtain interpretable measures of the degree of homogamy (or marriage preference) on one dimension and to adjust these measures for homogamy on other dimensions. The models are applied to a sample of marriages in Montevideo, Uruguay, with pairs of corresponding variables for the brides and grooms. The analysis estimates the unadjusted and adjusted levels of homogamy on previous marital status, age, education, religion, and location. Homogamy on location, or propinquity, is the single most important variable. Previous marital status and age describe the readiness or eligibility to marry and are associated in their effect on homogamy. Education and religion describe vertical and horizontal differentiation of marriage partners, respectively. The multivariate analysis verifies that these dimensions are largely independent of each other.     

Body image, eating disorders, and the drive for muscularity in gay and heterosexual men: the influence of media images

This Internet research project examined the relationship between consumption of muscle and fitness magazines and/or various indices of pornography and body satisfaction in gay and heterosexual men. Participants (N = 101) were asked to complete body satisfaction questionnaires that addressed maladaptive eating attitudes, the drive for muscularity, and social physique anxiety. Participants also completed scales measuring self-esteem, depression, and socially desirable responding. Finally, respondents were asked about their consumption of muscle and fitness magazines and pornography. Results indicated that viewing and purchasing of muscle and fitness magazines correlated positively with levels of body dissatisfaction for both gay and heterosexual men. Pornography exposure was positively correlated with social physique anxiety for gay men. The limitations of this study and directions for future research are outlined.     

Revisiting occupational sex segregation in the United States, 1910–1990: Results from a log-linear approach

I reexamine trends in the strength and structure of occupational sex segregation in the United States from 1910 to 1990. Log-multiplicative models show significant change in the association between gender and occupation. Contrary to conventional characterizations, a substantial proportion of this change occurred before 1970. Likewise, a margin-free index shows more integration over the century than do conventional indices. These discrepancies arise from occupation-specific variations in the trajectory of sex segregation: Highly segregated occupations were especially likely to integrate between 1930 and 1940. I identify regions of the occupational structure and pivotal periods in which shifts in segregation occurred and compare these results with conventional historical accounts.     

Measures of the perceived overall quality of life

Respondents participating in a national quality of life study were asked to assess their levels of satisfaction or dissatisfaction with each of a set of fifteen domains of their lives. They were also asked to describe their lives as a whole, using both satis-faction and semantic-differential types of scales. Canonical correlation analysis was used to find the combinations of domain-specific and global items with the highest correlation. The two indices derived from this analysis, the Index of Well-being and the Index of Domain Satisfactions, have been examined in relation to a variety of demographic and situational variables, including age, indicators of socioeconomic status, employment status, and size of community. The relationships discovered provide some preliminary evidence for the validity of these indices. The reliability of the measures (as measured cross-sectionally) and their stability over a period of some eight months are both acceptably high. We conclude that both of these measures form acceptable indicators of the perceived overall quality of life.     

Are UNDP Indices Appropriate to Capture Gender Inequalities in Europe?

This study critically investigates the suitability of United Nations’ composite indices and other related measures—among which the Gender Inequality Index just released in 2010—to capture gender inequalities in the context of “highly developed” countries, focusing on the case of Europe. Our results indicate that many of the gender gaps in health and education variables have either vanished or even reversed, thus questioning their appropriateness to capture women’s disadvantage in Europe and inviting to construct region-specific measures. Alternatively, parliamentary representation and labor force participation are variables with large gender gaps that highlight important dimensions where women disadvantage prevails. Different cross-section and cross-time associations between economic growth and gender equality are generally not statistically significant—or at most weakly correlated—at European level. This is basically due to the fact that the gender gaps included in UNDP gender-related indices reached their normatively desirable values long ago, therefore leaving no room for further improvement.     

Simple versus complex models: evaluation,accuracy, and combining

"This paper argues that it is premature to decide whether simple forecasting models in demography are more (or less) accurate than complex models and whether causal models are more (or less) accurate than noncausal models. It is also too early to say under what conditions one type of model can outperform another. The paper also questions the wisdom of searching for a single best model or approach. It suggests that combining forecasts may improve accuracy." (SUMMARY IN FRE)     

Health Disparities and Relational Well-Being between Multi- and Mono-Ethnic Asian Americans

Focusing on Hawaii, a state with 21.3% of the population being multi-racial according to the 2010 U.S. Census, this study aims to examine the existence and nature of health disparities between mono- and multi-ethnic Asian Americans and the importance of Relational Well-Being in affecting the health of Asian Americans. A series of ordinary least squares regression models that examine the direct and moderating effect of multi-ethnicity with indices of Relational Well-Being on physical health and mental health were estimated using Asian American data in the 2008 Hawaii Health Survey (N = 2,440). Multi-ethnic Asian Americans are found to enjoy better physical health and mental health compared to their mono-ethnic counterparts. Indices of Relational Well-Being such as Sense of Security, Sense of Resilience, and Sense of Family are stronger independent correlates of mental health compared to multi-ethnicity. Multi-ethnicity moderates the effect of some indices of Relational Well-Being such that Sense of Security benefits mental health and physical health more for the multi-ethnic group whereas Sense of Resilience benefits mental health more for the mono-ethnic group. Findings underscore the importance of multi-ethnicity and the construct of Relational Well-Being, which has its origins in both indigenous and Asian cultures, in understanding the health disparities among Asian Americans.     

Who Gets Held Back? An Analysis of Grade Retention Using Stratified Frailty Models

Racial/ethnic disparities in grade retention related to structural inequality are investigated using a quantitative theoretical model from the health literature. Data from the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study-Kindergarten Cohort are linked with segregation indices for dissimilarity and poverty interaction derived from the US Census 2000 data estimate the impact of individual and structural level variables on grade retention. Shared frailty models demonstrate that there are racial/ethnic differences in grade retention, much of which can be explained by structural inequality. Students who are white or African American have lower risk in areas with higher dissimilarity and poverty interaction. Parental involvement mediates the risk of retention.

     

The value of symmetric and asymmetric indices of segregation constructed from MCD data

People studying rural communities typically limit their analyses to single communities or to comparatively large units, such as counties. This information is important, but it is in local subcounty areas where rural people live and work. We examine the appropriateness of minor civil divisions (MCD's) as a small ecological unit in nonmetropolitan areas to measure segregation between poor and nonpoor people. The index of dissimilarity (D) and P^*-type contiguity indices are evaluated for the nonmetro portions of Mississippi and Wisconsin. MCD's are different in the two states, which affects the interpretation of the indices. We found that segregation, as measured by D, was low in both states. The low value of D in Mississippi may have resulted from how the state's MCD's were delineated. Although the P^* indices are highly correlated with the poverty rate, they do provide more information than the poverty rate alone.     

Aggregation pattern of individuals and the outcomes of competition within and between species: Differential equation models

Summary The influence of spatial distribution pattern on the outcomes of intra- and interspecific competition is studied theoretically. The models developed are the generalized logistic andVolterra equations, whereLloyd’s indices of intra- and interspecies mean crowding were incorporated with their assumed linear relationship to mean density in order to express the intensity of crowding which is really effective to the existing individuals. It is shown that while the increasing patchiness of distribution has a pronounced effect of promoting the intraspecific competition and lowering the equilibrium density for individual populations, it generally relaxes the interspecific competition, making it easy for different species sharing the same niche, which would otherwise be incompatible, to coexist stably. These models thus provide a simplest theoretical basis to explain why many insect populations in nature are kept relatively rare in number and why a number of allied species often coexist freely sharing the same resource, against the “competitive exclusion principle” deduced from the originalVolterra equations.     

United Nations/United Nations Fund for Population Activities Expert Group Meeting on Population-Development Modelling,Geneva, 24-28 September 1979

The objective of the Expert Group Meeting on Population-Development Modelling, held in Geneva during September 1979, was to make a critical review of existing population-development models and to assess their practical value in policymaking and planning. Of particular concern was the treatment of population-related issues in these models and their adaptability to the needs of developing countries in terms of such factors as conceptual and methodological problems and the availability of accurate and diverse data and technical and computer infrastructure. Several aspects of the problems were examined at the meeting. 6 areas were covered: the value of population-development model-building, achievements of existing population-development models, population-development submodels, the identification of research priorities concerning population-development interrelationships, perspective and alternative approaches to integrating demographic components into existing development planning frameworks, and an institutional framework for building and using population-development models. The Working Group developed and adopted a set of recommendations for future research and actions and these are presented. The recommendations made are in the following areas: role of population-development models, types of population-development models, institutional framework, and priorities for future research. The following were included among the recommendations: 1) efforts to contrast and apply models of various types relating to social, economic, and demographic processes should be encouraged; and 2) a need exists to support the development of research-oriented models.