Correlations,causes and heuristics in surveys of life satisfaction

Satisfaction with life domains is more highly correlated with interpersonal than with intrapersonal comparisons (Emmons and Diener, 1985). The hypothesis of the present studies is that the high correlations reflect inferences of social comparison from global satisfaction. Paradoxically, such inferences are most likely in private domains (love life, friends), where social information is scarce and relatively unimportant as a determinant of satisfaction. Study I replicates the Emmons-Diener findings, but also finds that subjects judge recent changes more important than social standing as a determinant of life satisfaction, especially in private domains. Study II examines an order effect in judgments of satisfaction. As hypothesized the correlation between social comparison and global satisfaction is higher (in private domains only) when global satisfaction is judged first than when the order of judgment is reversed.     

Quality of Work and Aggregate Productivity

We inspect the relationship between quality of work and productivity. Using Spanish aggregate data for the period 2001–2006, we find that quality of work is an additional factor to explain productivity levels in sectors and regions. Consequently, quality of work is not only an objective per se, but it also may be a production factor able to increase the wealth of regions. In our work we use two alternatives definitions of quality of work, coming respectively from survey data and from a social indicators approach. Besides, we employ two different measurements of labour productivity, in order to test the robustness of our result. We estimate our model using a simultaneous equation model for our panel of data, and we find important differences in high and low human capital sectors. The former display a positive relationship between quality of work and productivity, while the latter show a negative relationship.     

Structural Change and the Aggregate Poverty Rate

This paper measures the extent to which recent increases in the aggregate poverty rate are attributable to the changing distribution of employment across industries. We decompose the total poverty rate change over the 1976-1983 period into components attributable to changes in employment shares and changes in the incidence of poverty within industries. Our results show that the poverty rate increase resulted primarily from the decline in employment rates in general and from increases in the incidence of poverty within all industries, rather than from the shift of employment opportunities between sectors. The growth of service sector employment in particular has not contributed to the increased incidence of poverty in the United States.     

Population policy and individual choice

The general equilibrium implications of endogenous fertility for several social issues of population policy are examined. Laissez faire is found to lead to Pareto optimality within generations even in the presence of public goods and Malthusian diminishing returns. On the other hand, bequests emerge as a major potential source of Pareto inefficiency when parents care about the number and welfare of their offspring. Also considered are questions of intergenerational justice and equity using an intergenerational social welfare function. It is shown that maximizing the sum of utilities always leads to a larger population than maximizing per capita utility, but that the laissez-faire solution may lie outside the interval bounded by the two criteria.Invited Lecture at the First Annual Conference of the European Society for Population Economics, Rotterdam, 18–19 September 1987In preparing this paper, I have drawn heavily on joint work with Assaf Razin and Efraim Sadka, both of Tel-Aviv University, and on our book, Household and economy: Welfare economics of endogeneous fertility (Academic Press, New York 1987). I am indebted to two anonymous referees for helpful comments     

Long-term mortality patterns in Chinese history: evidence from a recorded clan population

Human populations have lived on the earth for millions of years, yet the study of population history only began to be established in the mid-twentieth century. In spite of the considerable progress in the study of historical demography which has since been made, there have been hardly any detailed studies of fertility and mortality before the sixteenth century. This study, by analysing a set of Chinese genealogies, examines long-term mortality patterns in a selected clan population over a period of more than 1000 years. The result shows that, in this selected population, mortality fluctuated around a relatively high level and showed no secular change over the very long period studied. The study also provides a comparison between the mortality patterns found in the selected population and those observed in a much larger Chinese lineage population, as well as those recorded among the British elites born between the sixteenth and the early nineteenth century. Based on the findings of this research, the paper presents some tentative suggestions about long-term mortality changes in Chinese history.     

The return migration patterns of Canadian seniors: insights from the 1991 cancer cohort study

Journal of Population Research - Roughly one-fifth of all Canadians leave their birth province, usually as young adults, to seek opportunities in other parts of the country (or beyond, although we...     

Age patterns of marriage

Abstract In different populations there is a common curve describing first-marriage frequency (first marriages per woman) as a function of age for each cohort. To fit the variety of patterns of human nuptiality it suffices to choose the age that serves as origin for a standard curve of first-marriage frequency, and to choose appropriate horizontal and vertical scales for the curve. The prevalence of a standard form for first-marriage frequency implies that the proportion ever-married in any cohort also rises along a standard curve, subject to choice of origin (the earliest age of first marriage), vertical scale (the proportion ever-marrying by the end of life), and horizontal scale (the pace at which the proportion ever-married increases with age). A mathematical expression (a double exponential) is found to fit the risk offirst marriage (among those who ever marry), and some of the implications of uniform features of nuptiality in different populations are discussed.     

Far eastern patterns of Mortality

Summary In this paper a mortality pattern is identified which has not previously been described by model mortality schedules and seems to have occurred only in populations in the Far East. Mortality schedules in Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore, and Korea during the past several decades have been characterized by excessively high death rates of men at the older ages. This excess mortality has progressively diminished and most recent death rates for men show only slight deviations from West model life tables. An examination of statistics on causes of death suggests that tuberculosis is at least partly responsible for the excess mortality of men.     

Urban labor markets and individual transitions out of poverty

Using data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics and the U.S. census, I examine the effect of four structural characteristics on individual poverty exits: (1) economic restructuring, (2) skills mismatches, (3) racial residential segregation, and (4) welfare benefit levels. Results show that these factors play a role in explaining African Americans’ economic disadvantages, but they have a weaker and often contrary impact on whites’ poverty exits. Overall, the differing impact of the contextual characteristics on African Americans and whites exacerbates social stratification and illustrates racial divisions that continue to pervade the labor market.     

Single women and stock investment in individual retirement accounts

This study uses data from the 2013 Survey of Consumer Finances to investigate factors related to stock investment in individual retirement accounts and focuses on the role of gender and marital status in particular. This study finds that single women are less likely to own stocks and invest in fewer stocks in their IRAs. Personal characteristics, such as stock ownership in other financial assets, education level, and risk tolerance may play a key role in shaping individuals’ decisions regarding stock investment in IRAs. However, these determinants are different for single women than for other demographic groups.     

Aggregate population and economic growth correlations: The role of the components of demographic change

The results of recent correlations showing a negative impact of population growth on economic development in cross-country data for the 1980s, versus “nonsignificant” correlations widely found for the 1960s and 1970s, are examined with contemporaneous and lagged components of demographic change, convergence-type economic modeling, and several statistical frameworks. The separate impacts of births and deaths are found to be notable but offsetting in the earlier periods. In contrast, the short-run costs (benefits) of births (mortality reduction) increase (decrease) significantly in the 1980s, and the favorable labor-force impacts of past births are not fully offsetting.     

Family limitation and the fertility transition: Evidence from the age patterns of fertility in Europe and Asia

Summary The age patterns of marital fertility levels and decline in modern Asia and historical Europe are analysed in order to answer two questions: (1) How closely do the age patterns of marital fertility in both areas prior to a systematic fertility decline conform to the age pattern of natural fertility? (2) How similar are the age patterns of the fertility transition experienced in Europe in the past, and the age pattern of fertility decline now under way in a number of Asian populations? The answers have important implications for our understanding of the fertility transition. They suggest that modern family limitation (i.e. parity-specific fertility control) was largely absent prior to a secular decline in marital fertility in both Europe and Asia. Furthermore, the evidence indicates that once the practice of family limitation starts to spread among the broader strata of the population, it seems almost inevitably to increase until it becomes a common behavioural norm. In this respect, the modern fertility transition appears to result from the spread of innovative behaviour and cannot be viewed simply as an adjustment to new socio-economic circumstances based on previously established behavioural mechanisms.     

A magical model to predict individual differences in mood change

We tested a mathematical model of psychological well-being (PWB) with data from a paradigm that included a negative mood induction followed by a positive induction. The propositions from the model encompass the hypothesis that the relative mood prior to either induction has implications for the magnitude of subsequent induction effects, such that relative mood is defined by current mood as a ratio of the prevailing mood that is predicted by the model. The findings confirm the hypothesis that the relative mood at baseline predicts mood change in a nonoverlapping time period, even after control for potentially mediating variables.     

The demography of the unrelated individual: 1900–1950

This article is an analysis of the frequency and characteristics of unrelated individuals between 1900 and 1950. The much-heralded rise of the primary individual during the 20th century has been offset by a decline in the frequency of secondary individuals. The overall percentage of persons residing without family did not exceed turn-of-the-century levels until the 1970s. Using data from national micro data samples of the census for 1900, 1940, and 1950, the study applies decomposition techniques and life-course analysis to investigate these patterns. The results show that the decline of the secondary individual from 1900 to 1950 was largely a function of changing demographic composition, but the increase of primary individuals is linked to changing residential preferences.     

The influence of individual and historical time on marital dissolution

This paper examines the influence of individual development and historical change on marital dissolution. Data from the vital statistics system of the United States and from the June 1980Current Population Survey are used to examine the experience of marriage cohorts from 1905 through 1975 and the periods from 1922 through 1979. The historical patterns can best be explained as effects of period rather than of birth or marriage cohort, and the individual patterns can be explained best as effects of age and age at marriage rather than of marital duration.     

Residential independence among older persons: community and individual factors

The objective of this study is to evaluate an expanded version of the resource model of living arrangements among older persons. This expanded model includes community-level measures of geriatric health services and housing market conditions. We employ the first two waves of the National Survey of Families and Households to test static and longitudinal fixed effects models of residential living arrangements. We find that residing in areas with higher levels of geriatric health care services increases the likelihood of residential independence, net of other contextual factors and individual characteristics. Our results show that housing market conditions are not related to levels of or changes in residential independence when control variables are included in the models. The results for the individual-level resource variables show that persons with greater economic resources, more children, and better functional status are better able to maintain independence and are less likely to die or live in a nursing home. This study shows the utility of expanding on micro-level approaches to understanding community living arrangements among older persons. Future investigations should include measures of the policy environment, transportation constraints and opportunities, and a more complete array of indicators of health and social services oriented toward helping elderly persons maintain their independence.     

Parity patterns of birth interval distribution

A simplified model is presented for the measurement of inter-live birth interval distributions. Comparative analyses of "effective fecundability," the mean length and variation of postpartum infecundity, and the parity progression ratio based on this measurement model are presented using data from U.S. marriage cohorts and from an Indian sample. Parity differentials in these reproduction parameters are investigated, and the ramifications for fertility estimate and projection discussed.     

Long-term multivariate prediction of migration patterns

In- and out-migration rates of 56 Israeli cities with a population of over 5000 were predicted for a five-year period (1977–1981), on the basis of four 1976 social indicators: crime rate, percent unemployment, population size and distance from a major metropolitan center. Rather than employ independent correlation coefficients, the four indicators were entered as predictors into regression equations with in- and out-migration rates serving as the dependent variable. The analytic methods are compared and the clear advantages of the regression method emerge. None of the indicators reliably predicted in-migration. Crime consistently predicted out-migration. Distance and unemployment each entered into three of the prediction models.     

Hispanic heterogeneity and environmental injustice: intra-ethnic patterns of exposure to cancer risks from traffic-related air pollution in Miami

To explore intra-ethnic diversity in patterns of environmental health injustice in Miami (Florida), we related modeled estimates of cancer risks from on-road pollutants from the 2005 National-scale Air Toxics Assessment with 2005–2009 American Community Survey tract-level sociodemographic data. Neighborhoods with lower incomes and higher proportions of Hispanics were at risk. When disaggregating “Hispanic” based on country of origin, we found that Cuban and Colombian neighborhoods faced significantly increased cancer risk from vehicular air pollution while Mexican neighborhoods faced significantly decreased risk. These divergent patterns of environmental injustice based on Hispanic country-of-origin groupings have been shaped by the differing migration and settlement patterns of Hispanic subgroups in Miami. Our findings highlight the growing need to consider racial/ethnic heterogeneity in future EJ analysis and policy.