正确应对突发事件

突发事件,顾名思义,就是突然发生的事件,具体来讲,是指在社会生活中事前难以预测、作用和影响范围广泛且能破坏甚至瓦解社会正常关系和社会公共秩序的事件。突发事件通常可以分为自然性突发事件(如地震、干旱、水灾等)和人为性突发事件(如重大政治事件、经济事件、突发战争、恐怖主义袭击等)两大类别。20世纪90年代以来,世界上许多国家都面临着众多突发事件的威胁。如1997年爆发于泰国并迅速蔓延整个亚洲的金融危机、2001年美国遭受的“9·11”恐怖袭击、2004年的印度洋海啸、1998年我国南方各省发生的洪灾、2003年爆发的非典疫情等都给整个…     

我国群体性事件的预防管理研究

群体性突发事件是当前我国社会所处的转型期,各种社会矛盾以及社会问题的一种集中的反映,要想有效的预防群体性突发事件的发生,我们就必须了解群体性突发事件发生的原因,针对群体性突发事件提出有效的预防方案,从根源上遏止群体性突发事件的发生,从而更好地保持社会的稳定,促进经济社会的健康发展和全面进步。     

浅析突发事件中网络媒体的运用与管理

我国目前正处于社会转型期,各种社会矛盾突出,各类突发事件频发,也为我国的社会和谐与稳定带来了诸多隐患。网络媒体作为依靠信息技术发展起来的新时代媒体,在突发事件的处理中发挥着越来越关键的作用,尤其是舆论的力量无形中推动着事件的发展。但是目前我国的网络媒体仍有许多不足之处,尤其是报道突发事件过程中,仍需要加强管理,合理利用。本文从突发事件的基本内涵出发,讨论了网络媒体为突发事件信息传播带来的影响,以及优化突发事件中网络媒体的有效管理运用的对策。     

社会资本、非正式制度与经济发展

与社会资本有关的非正式制度对人类行为和福利产生了显著的影响,作为非正式制度的社会资本和正式制度之间既可能是互补的,也可能是互替的。在经济发展和市场化的过程中,社会资本本身及其作用都会发生相应的变化。在中国,社会资本的作用及其变化还存在着一定的城乡差异。     

党政干部舆论引导能力素养的调查报告——以石家庄市为例

数字化、多媒体、互联网引领的信息时代,各种信息在瞬间得以传播和扩散。在突发事件频发的今天,正确的舆论导向和媒体应对能力,对于平复公众情绪、化解社会矛盾起着关键的作用。那么,舆论的传播如何进行控制和疏导呢?这就需要新时期的管理者与时俱进,时刻关注来自网络、媒体等传播渠道的最新消息,对于各种舆情     

突发事件中的微博舆情管理

当前，中国社会已从整体上步入了“快速发展的黄金期和突发事件的高发期”。伴随经济社会的快速发展，由于自然灾害、人为因素等，近年来各种突发事件频频发生，管理水平相对滞后的矛盾不断凸显，相继引发了一系列社会问题。在突发事件的传播过程中，微博日益成为重要的平台和推手，如何有效管理微博舆情，正确引导公众舆论，从而成功应对突发事件，成为当下亟需面对和解决的重要课题。     

突发事件中的微博舆情管理

当前,中国社会已从整体上步入了"快速发展的黄金期和突发事件的高发期"。伴随经济社会的快速发展,由于自然灾害、人为因素等,近年来各种突发事件频频发生,管理水平相对滞后的矛盾不断凸显,相继引发了一系列社会问题。在突发事件的传播过程中,微博日益成为重要的平台和推手,如何有效管理微博舆情,正确引导公众舆论,从而成功应对突发事件,成为当下亟需面对和解决的重要课题。一、突发事件中的微博舆情特点对于突发事件,法律上是这样定义的:     

全球性突发事件对国际科技创新合作的影响及对策

全球性突发事件往往波及范围广、影响程度大、破坏性强,严重影响国家之间的科技创新交流与合作,阻碍国际科技创新合作的发展。通过从合作的规模、领域、绩效、形式四个维度分析全球性突发事件对国际科技创新合作的影响,可知国际社会团结协作、加强科研攻关合作对国际科技创新合作具有重要作用。为了减少全球性突发事件对国际科技创新合作的消极影响,发挥其对抵挡全球性突发事件冲击的积极作用,从凝聚应对突发事件合力、平稳经济波动、把握合作重点、引进创新人才、搭建创新平台、提升资本参与六个方面提出把控国际科技创新合作影响的政策建议。     

基于重大突发事件扩散机理的脆弱性管理问题研究

文章对脆弱性概念、研究内容、重大突发事件扩散的根本影响因素以及减轻脆弱性、抑制重大突发事件扩散的途径进行了分析,并讨论了从重大突发事件孕育发生的各个环节降低脆弱性,以最大限度减轻重大突发事件造成的影响和损失。     

发挥青年意见领袖在突发事件中正影响的思考

随着信息网络时代的到来,各种突发性事件在青年意见领袖的影响下迅速蔓延并成为社会舆论的重要组成部分,青年意见领袖在突发事件的产生过程中也起到了推动作用。青年意见领袖在突发事件中的显著作用,不仅表现在自身意见的导向作用,还表现在青年意见领袖同官方意见领袖以及其它意见领袖之间的相互影响、相互作用。然而,青年意见领袖在推动突发事件过程中带来正影响的同时,也会给社会带来一些负面的影响。因此,如何最大限度的发挥青年意见领袖在突发事件中的正影响成为了亟待解决的问题。     

群体性突发事件中政府机会主义行为的演化博弈分析

群体性突发事件成为影响当前我国社会稳定和实现现代化平稳过渡的重要因素,但是研究主要是基于实践经验的概述和总结分析上,缺少合适的理论分析工具揭示群体性突发事件的演化规律和发展特征。本文尝试运用演化博弈理论建立了地方政府部门与社会弱势群体之间的演化博弈模型,分析了地方政府部门机会主义行为导致的群体性突发事件呈现扩大化的趋势。研究结果表明:(1)如果社会弱势群体的情绪和行动尚未激化,至多停留在集体上访或集会等体制内平和的诉求手段,机会主义的地方政府将采取高压强硬策略;此时博弈均衡结果是(妥协或平和诉求,强硬);(2)一旦弱势群体中出现少数分子采取了"打砸抢"等暴力抗争的行动,由于机会主义政府转而做出较大让步,从而诱导其他弱势成员相继采取暴力抗争行动,事态反而进一步呈现扩大趋势。因此,群体性突发事件处置过程中,地方政府的机会主义行为不仅延误事件处置的最佳时机,而且直接导致了事态的扩大化。最后结合数值分析和瓮安事件案例,剖析了地方政府部门采取的机会主义应急处置措施,以及本文理论模型的适用范围。     

整体环境和个体关联对群体性事件产生与演化的影响

对群体性事件产生与演化规律的研究已经成为社会管理的重要主题,而发展迅速的计算社会学方法为深入研究这一问题提供了新的途径。在已有研究的基础上,通过考察群体性事件的部分案例,可以发现个体对政府的信任程度、个体利益诉求渠道和社会普遍情绪这些内生性因素构成了群体性事件发生的整体环境要素,这些内生性因素的存在和组合达到一定水平,就构成了群体性事件发生的重要条件,而在这些宏观条件下,个体之间通过社会网络产生的关联和相互作用对群体事件的产生与演化也有重要影响。通过基于社会网络的计算社会学模型的模拟检验,本文对群体性事件的产生与演化进行了计算分析,讨论了整体环境和个体关联的各要素的作用,获得了部分内生性因素在其他条件既定时引发群体性事件的临界值。研究工作为进一步研究群体性事件的演化与形成机制提供了必要的模型基础。     

Organizational factors affecting the incident reporting of train drivers

The under-reporting of accidents and incidents is well established as a substantial problem across industries; however, few studies have specifically examined employees' reasons for failing to report. This study investigates the factors affecting incident reporting by train drivers (n = 128) in three different areas of British Rail (the company that operated the railway network in Britain, prior to its privatization in 1994). Drivers completed a questionnaire rating their likelihood of reporting a number of hazardous incidents and giving their reasons for not reporting them. Intention not to report incidents was predicted by 'managers take no notice' of reports and the interaction between 'just part of the day's work' and 'nothing would get done'. It is concluded that incident reporting is most influenced by the way that drivers perceive managers' reactions to reports. In addition, the three areas differed significantly in their likelihood of reporting incidents, suggesting that the local subculture has an important influence on intentions to report, with negative perceptions of managers' attitudes suppressing the reporting of incidents.     

The Influence of Weather Conditions on the Relative Incident Rate of Fishing Vessels

There is a long history of studying the relationship between weather and maritime activities. This article analyzes the link between relative incident rate (RIR) and general weather factors within certain gridded areas and time periods. The study area, which encompasses a broad extent of Atlantic Canadian waters, includes fishing incidents recorded by the Canadian Coast Guard from 1997 to 1999. Methodologies used for traffic track generation in a geographical information system and aggregation of all relevant weather data needed for the statistical analyses are presented. Ultimately, a regression tree was built to illustrate the relationship between incident rate and the following six weather factors: wave height; sea surface temperature; air temperature; ice concentration; fog presence; and precipitation. Results from the regression tree reveal that the RIR defined as (incident number per area-day)/(traffic amount per area-day) across grid cells with incidents, increases as the weather conditions deteriorate in a general way, and the concentration of ice has the biggest influence on the magnitude of incident rates for a given level of traffic exposure. The results from this analysis may assist administrators of maritime traffic, especially those associated with fishing activities, through a better understanding of the influence on RIR of certain weather conditions within given areas in specific time periods.     

基层商业银行个人金融业务操作风险的实证分析

经验证据表明,引发商业银行信用风险、市场风险的诸多案例中实际上相当比例是由于操作风险所引致的。以某国有商业银行某一级分行为例,将其辖下的二级分行向一级分行上报的个人金融业务操作风险数据与调研清查数据相结合,对我国基层商业个人金融业务条线的操作风险进行实证分析。研究发现,人为因素引发的损失事件发生频率较高,损失金额较大。最后,采用损失分布法对一级分行层面的主要业务单元的操作风险损失进行了估计和比较。     

In the eye of the beholder? An eye-tracking experiment on emergent leadership in team interactions

Integrating evolutionary signaling theory with a social attention approach, we argue that individuals possess a fast, automated mechanism for detecting leadership signals in fellow humans that is reflected in higher visual attention toward emergent leaders compared to non-leaders. To test this notion, we first videotaped meetings of project teams and collected leadership ratings for the team members from three rating sources. Second, we provided 18 naïve observers with 42 brief, muted video clips of the team meetings and analyzed their eye gazing patterns. Observers gazed at emergent leaders more often, and for an average longer duration, than at non-leaders. Gender effects occurred such that male emergent leaders received a higher number of fixations than female emergent leaders. Non-verbal behavior analysis indicated that emergent leaders showed a higher amount of active gestures and less passive facial expressions than non-leaders. We discuss theoretical and methodological directions for emergent leadership research in teams.     

基于深度学习的多维情景空间下群体性事件分析与预测研究

在社会转型的背景下，我国群体性事件的数量不断攀升，极大地影响了社会的和谐稳定。本文应用"情景-次级情景-对象-要素"模型对各类群体性事件案例进行分解，提取相关的影响因素，构建多维情景空间模型，并提出了用于群体性事件预测的卷积神经网络模型，阐述了其基本原理，然后结合实例说明了其应用。通过根据多维情景空间模型对群体性事件案例进行编码形成的数据样本集，来训练该预测模型，并用AUC值评估其有效性。最后分析了不同影响因素在群体性事件预测中的作用以及应急管理主体的应对方向。     

Participatory analysis of accidents and incidents as a tool for increasing safety behaviour in fishermen. A pilot intervention study

Although occupational accidents are common in fishery, safety work is often not given priority by the fishermen. The aims of this study were to test a group-based intervention for increased activity in safety work through group discussion of accident/incident experience; to study occurred incidents/accidents and how such events were managed; and to study intervention effects on activity in safety work, risk acceptance and perceived manageability of risks. A sample of men from five crews (11 men) of Swedish fishermen participated. The study had a one group pre-test-post-test design for questionnaire data. The emphasis was on qualitative information collected during the intervention and interviews. The results indicated that accident causes could be appraised as being unmanageable even when technical solutions were possible. Psychological factors may cause incidents not to be documented or discussed. Incident experience seldom leads to preventive measures. Interaction between structural, social and psychological factors seemed to explain this. Questionnaires, observations and interview data suggested that some increase in safety work took place during the intervention. After the discussions the participants perceived risks to be less manageable. The study indicated that, although sensitive to dropout, participative safety interventions in fishery are feasible and may be effective. A longer or more intensive intervention may be necessary in order to progress from problem orientation to action orientation.     

Practicing Restorative Justice in School Communities: Addressing the Challenge of Culture Change

The practice of restorative justice in schools has the capacity to build social and human capital through challenging students in the context of social and emotional learning. While restorative justice was originally introduced to schools to address serious incidents of misconduct and harmful behavior, the potential this philosophy offers is much greater. The conviction is that the key challenge for schools is addressing the culture change required to make the shift from traditional discipline, driven by punitive (or rewards based) external motivators, to restorative discipline, driven by relational motivators that seeks to empower individuals and their communities.     

Participatory analysis of accidents and incidents as a tool for increasing safety behaviour in fishermen. A pilot intervention study

Abstract

Although occupational accidents are common in fishery, safety work is often not given priority by the fishermen. The aims of this study were to test a group-based intervention for increased activity in safety work through group discussion of accident/incident experience; to study occurred incidents/accidents and how such events were managed; and to study intervention effects on activity in safety work, risk acceptance and perceived manageability of risks. A sample of men from five crews (11 men) of Swedish fishermen participated. The study had a one group pre-test–post-test design for questionnaire data. The emphasis was on qualitative information collected during the intervention and interviews. The results indicated that accident causes could be appraised as being unmanageable even when technical solutions were possible. Psychological factors may cause incidents not to be documented or discussed. Incident experience seldom leads to preventive measures. Interaction between structural, social and psychological factors seemed to explain this. Questionnaires, observations and interview data suggested that some increase in safety work took place during the intervention. After the discussions the participants perceived risks to be less manageable. The study indicated that, although sensitive to dropout, participative safety interventions in fishery are feasible and may be effective. A longer or more intensive intervention may be necessary in order to progress from problem orientation to action orientation.