Job loss and health in the U.S. labor market

While U.S. unemployment rates remain low, rates of job loss are high and rising. Job loss is also becoming increasingly common in more advantaged, white-collar occupations. This article is concerned with how these patterns impact the health of U.S. workers. Drawing on recent data from the U.S. Panel Study of Income Dynamics, I find that job loss harms health, beyond sicker people being more likely to lose their jobs. Respondents who lost jobs but were reemployed at the survey faced an increased risk of developing new health conditions; they were not, however, more likely to describe their health in negative terms. This suggests that recent job “churning” within the United States (i.e., high rates of job loss but low unemployment) may impact certain health outcomes but not others. I find no evidence that the health consequences of job loss differ across white- and blue-collar occupations, although health-related selection out of jobs appears stronger within the blue-collar category.     

Multiple Meanings of Minority Concentration: Incorporating Contextual Explanations into the Analysis of Individual-Level U.S. Black Mortality Outcomes

Prior research on mortality for U.S. blacks focuses on the detrimental effects of minority concentration and residential segregation in metropolitan areas on health outcomes. To date, few studies have examined this relationship outside of large U.S. central cities. In this paper, we extend current research on the minority concentration and mortality relationship to explain the rural advantage in mortality for nonmetropolitan blacks. Using data from the 1986–1994 linked National Health Interview Survey/National Death Index, we examine the rural-urban gap in mortality for U.S. blacks. Our findings indicate that blacks in nonmetropolitan areas experience a lower risk of mortality than metropolitan central city blacks after indicators of socio-economic and health status are controlled. Our findings also point to the importance of accounting for contextual factors. Net of individual level controls, minority concentration exerts differential effects across metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas, such that nonmetropolitan black residents experience a lower risk of mortality in high minority concentration areas than blacks in metropolitan central city areas. This finding suggests a reconceptualization of the meaning for minority concentration with respect to studies of health outcomes in nonmetropolitan communities.     

The effects of density and urban residence on voter turnout

The rate of voting in cities of the U.S. tends to be lower than one would expect when compared to nationwide voter participation rates. The hypothesis in question here is whether high population density and urbanness have a dampening effect on the likelihood of voting by persons living under such conditions. This question is examined by relating county voting rates in recent U.S. Presidential elections to various types of county population density, while controlling for fifteen potentially contaminating variables. The hypothesis that population density reduces voter turnout cannot be rejected on the basis of the test. There is a small but significant negative relationship between the press of population — represented by the population per square mile and urbanness — and voter turnout, even when the various control variables are present. More immediate types of density, such as housing unit and room density, appear to be insignificant. Possible reasons for the results are discussed.     

Factors Associated With Temporal and Spatial Patterns in Suicide Rates Across U.S. States, 1976–2000

Using pooled cross-sectional time-series data for the 50 U.S. states over a 25-year period, this article examines how well four conceptual groups of social correlates—demographic, economic, social, and cultural factors—are associated with the 1976–2000 patterns in overall suicide rates and suicide by firearms and other means. Unlike past research that typically considers only one dimension, this analysis differentiates between spatial and temporal variation in suicide rates to determine whether and how social correlates operate differently in these two contexts. Results indicate that suicide rates correspond closely to social correlates. Within U.S. states, lower overall suicide rates between 1976 and 2000 were associated with demographic change (e.g., larger numbers of foreign-born) as well as with fewer numbers of Episcopalians. Across U.S. states, variation in overall suicide rates over the period was related to demographic (percentage male), economic (per capita income), social (percentage divorced), and cultural (alcohol consumption and gun ownership) factors. However, findings differ importantly by type of suicide, and across time and space. Reasons for these distinct patterns are discussed.     

Fertility and economic dependency of Soviet women

The study addresses itself to the question: If it can be shown that economic dependency of women is not associated with fertility, then what are the variables that favor their abstention from work outside home? Results based on an extensive statistical analysis of Soviet data bring into focus new evidence. It was found thateconomic dependency of women is associated with themarriage differential between sexes. This relationship is especially evident in the regions where birth rates are of a low order. In the geographic areas where fertility is high, the percentage of economically inactive women increases with an increase in the urban population portion in an administrative area. Five principal components of urbanization have been identified: (1) educational level, (2) increasing rates of marriage, (3) divorce, (4) equal educational status of women as compared with men, and (5) the rising proportion of economically dependent women in the 16–54 age span. Most of the data are based on the 1959 Census and vital statistics by administrative areas for the U. S. S. R. For analytic purposes these were sorted into 30 areas of low birth rates, 62 areas with moderate rates, and 48 administrative areas corresponding to the high-fertility region in the Caucasus, Central Asia, and in several autonomous non-Slav republics.     

A comparison of patterns of urban deprivation between Canadian and U.S. cities

Recent research has indicated the existence of aggregate level differences between Canadian and U.S. cities. However, little attention has been given to possible socio-spatial differences between cities in the two nations. This paper attempts to address part of this issue by comparing a sample of paired Canadian and U.S. cities with respect to, (1) deprivation concentration levels within their inner cities, (2) the nature of areas of multiple deprivation, and (3) the proportion of their worst areas of multiple deprivation located within their inner cities. The study found that deprived groups were disproportionately represented in the inner-city areas of both nations. However, areas of multiple deprivation in U.S. cities contained more deprived groups than Canadian cities. Finally, the inner-city areas of both nations contained high proportions of their worst areas of multiple deprivation. In short, the extent of multiple deprivation is less in Canadian cities, but cities in both countries share an inner-city problem.     

Inequality and crime revisited: effects of local inequality and economic segregation on crime

Economic inequality has long been considered an important determinant of crime. Existing evidence, however, is mostly based on inadequately aggregated data sets, making its interpretation less than straightforward. Using tract- and county-level U.S. Census panel data, I decompose county-level income inequality into its within- and across-tract components and examine the extent to which county-level crime rates are influenced by local inequality and economic segregation. I find that the previously reported positive correlation between violent crime and economic inequality is largely driven by economic segregation across neighborhoods instead of within-neighborhood inequality. Moreover, there is little evidence of a significant empirical link between overall inequality and crime when county- and time-fixed effects are controlled for. On the other hand, a particular form of economic inequality, namely, poverty concentration, remains an important predictor of county-level crime rates.     

Chronic movers and the future redistribution of population: A longitudinal analysis

This research has two purposes. First, it examines individual- and household-level factors related to the propensity to move. The findings reveal that mobility is largely a matter of habitual movers changing residence repeatedly and frequently. The second objective is concerned with strengthening the foundation for projecting aggregate levels of mobility: (1) how does repeated movement manifest itself at the metropolitan scale? and (2) for predictive purposes, which aggregate indices capture the most important features of local population composition? Mobility rates were found to vary principally with the prevalence of chronic movers in an SMSA. These findings have several implications for policies designed to guide future population distribution. First, an SMSA’s capacity to correct local manpower imbalances by exchanging human capital with other areas may depend partially on its relative abundance of habitual movers. Second, the likelihood that new cities would attract disproportionate numbers of hypermobile persons might enhance their role within the framework of a broader distribution policy. The question posed here is whether high intrinsic levels of population turnover in some cities might fit into a larger strategy for realigning population growth and distribution nationally.     

An exploratory analysis of select predictors of concern for law and order

Within the last decade concern for law and order has become a major domestic issue. Presidential candidates have campaigned on the issue. Opinion polls have charted the growing public concern. Crime statistics have reported startling growth in the number of serious crimes committed in the United States. This paper attempts to assess the ability of different variables to predict and explain this high concern. Two aspects of concern will be discussed: (1) awareness of and (2) willingness to do something about crime. Theoretically little is known about how awareness for a social problem can be translated into forms of action to deal with the perceived problem. Methodologically, a technique is needed for assessing the relative importance of different variables related to the problem area. Path analysis is discussed as a possible technique. The data was collected through a random sample of heads-of-households in the State of Washington during the summer of 1970 (N=3101; response rate=75%). Some of the major findings include: (1) people in larger cities are more aware of a crime problem than people in smaller cities and towns, but people in larger cities are less willing to allocate tax dollars to combat crime; (2) the size of city, and implicitly the crime rate, is the most important variable for understanding the public awareness of crime; (3) the elderly and those of conservative orientation are more willing to allocate funds to combat crime than the young and liberal, although there exists no difference in their awarencess of the problem; and (4) relative exposure to mass media, socio-economic status, or identification with one's community make little contribution to the understanding of either awareness of crime or willingness to allocate tax dollars to combat crime.     

Explaining welfare recidivism: what role do unemployment and initial spells have?

The question of high welfare re-entry rates has attracted great attention from economists and policymakers. Using a very rich administrative data set for the minimum income program of the Madrid Government (over 50,000 spells), this paper aims to broach various questions arising from the issue of welfare re-entry. We try to identify what factors determine observed differences in the durations of the first off-welfare spell. We analyze the combined effects of the length and type of exit of the first spell, unemployment, and sociodemographic characteristics. The experience of the first spell and, to a lesser extent, employability can contribute toward lengthening the time spent outside the program. Our results also show that off-welfare spells of households leaving the program in periods of low economic growth will be longer than those that do so during economic expansions. With the exception of unemployment effects, our estimates yield very similar results to those obtained in the U.S. studies, suggesting that U.S. welfare policies and analyses are not entirely irrelevant for European discussions of welfare policies.     

A crime based analysis and classification of 729 American cities

Thirty social indicators, consisting of crime rates and variables which may be regarded theoretically as correlates of crime, are factor analyzed for 729 incorporated American cities with a minimum population of 25000. Factors associated with crime, poverty, native-born status, city revenue, residential stability, home construction, city size, and population age are identified. The data matrix is partitioned in order to identify high crime and low crime cities. The cities in each category are then subjected to cluster analysis on the basis of the seven socioeconomic factors, and the resulting groups are investigated further in order to identify distinctive clusters and underlying patterns of social conditions. A group of model low crime communities is identified — virtually all were incorporated white noose suburbs of metropolitan areas. Residential instability and large population size are associated with two of the high crime groups, which include stereotypical crime problem cities such as Detroit, Chicago, and Kansas City. The member cities constituting each of the eight groups are documented, and the policy implications of the findings are discussed.     

Toward macro-social accounting: Measures and scales of racial,sexual, and spatial equality in 243 U.S. SMSA's

This paper develops a set of empirical social indicators of quality between races, sexes, and spatial areas in all U.S. SMSA's. New findings are presented concerning the level of equality by city and region. An eight-step Guttman Scale is developed which suggests a progressive hierarchy of these various of equality. Cities develop higher levels of equality between residents in a patterned building block manner beginning first with favorable levels of spatial equality and culminating in equality between black and white professional employment rates. Finally, a canonical correlation model is hypothesized and empirically estimated to explain variation between these 243 cities in level of inequality. This model linked key economic, demographic and ecological forces to levels of equality in spatial systems.     

Alternative Projections of the U.S. population

The U.S. Bureau of the Census recently released a set of population projections that include middle and high projections that we argue are too conservative. The projections discount the possibility of future baby booms and assume slow rates of mortality decline and low levels of immigration. In this article we explore the impact on the size and age composition of the U.S. population of alternative scenarios of plausible fertility, mortality, and immigration assumptions. We conclude that (1) the Census Bureau's highest projection might be interpreted as a reasonable middle projection, (2) a reasonable high projection would yield a U.S. population in 2080 some 300 million persons larger than the Bureau's highest projection, with the population 85 and older more than twice the Bureau's greatest estimate, and (3) uncertainty about the pace of population growth is substantially greater than the Bureau's projections suggest.     

U.S. births and limit cycle Models

Lee's (1974) formal demographic feedback models summarize the implications for births and age-structure of neo-Malthusian theories of baby booms such as those of Easterlin. For some parameter values, such models imply sustained cycles, so-called "limit cycles", in births. Frauenthal and Swick recently reestimated a continuous-age version of Lee's basic cohort model with U.S. series and, contrary to Lee's original findings, concluded that "limit cycles oscillations have been occurring in U.S. births." This article disputes their conclusion, ascribing it to an inconsistency in detrending procedures. Furthermore, it corrects Lee's original conclusion by showing that his alternative period labor-force feedback model, estimated from U.S. series, leads to cycles of implausibly long period. This article thus reopens the question of whether any feedback model could account for the observed cycles in U.S. births.     

Have family income mobility patterns changed?

We examine the mobility of individuals in the United States based on equivalent family income-that is, total income of all family members adjusted for family size according to the equivalence scale implicit in the U.S. poverty line. Our analysis, which tracks movements across quintiles, centers on four questions: How much movement is there across the family income distribution? How has this mobility changed over time? To what extent are the movements attributable to factors related to changes in family composition versus events in the labor markets? In light of major socioeconomic changes occurring in the quarter-century under study, have the determinants of mobility changed over time? Our findings indicate that mobility rates in the 1980s differed little from those in the 1970s. However, individuals in families headed by a young person or a person without a college education were less likely to experience upward mobility in the 1980s than in the 1970s.     

Age–Period–Cohort Decomposition of U.S. and Japanese Birth Rates

Aggregate data on birth rates in the U.S. and Japan, classified by period and by age, are decomposed into age, period, and cohort effects using Bayesian cohort models that were developed to overcome the identification problem in cohort analysis. Main findings are fivefold. First, age, period, and cohort effects movements are all larger in Japan than in the U.S. Second, in both countries, age effects are the largest and are roughly consistent with the life-cycle movements showing an inverted U shape. Third, Easterlin’s cohort size hypothesis roughly fits U.S. birth rates but not Japanese birth rates. Fourth, despite rapid decline of total fertility rates in Japan in last three decades, period effects have been on an upward trend since the early 1990s. Finally, upward and downward cohort effects movements in Japan are derived by rapid economic growth and the Equal Employment Opportunity Law, respectively.     

Racial/Ethnic and Nativity Patterns of U.S. Adolescent and Young Adult Smoking

We document racial/ethnic and nativity differences in U.S. smoking patterns among adolescents and young adults using the 2006 Tobacco Use Supplement to the Current Population Survey (n = 44,202). Stratifying the sample by nativity status within five racial/ethnic groups (Asian American, Mexican–American, other Hispanic, non-Hispanic black, and non-Hispanic white), and further by sex and age, we compare self-reports of lifetime smoking across groups. U.S.-born non-Hispanic whites, particularly men, report smoking more than individuals in other racial/ethnic/nativity groups. Some groups of young women (e.g., foreign-born and U.S.-born Asian Americans, foreign-born and U.S.-born Mexican–Americans, and foreign-born blacks) report extremely low levels of smoking. Foreign-born females in all of the 25–34 year old racial/ethnic groups exhibit greater proportions of never smoking than their U.S.-born counterparts. Heavy/moderate and light/intermittent smoking is generally higher in the older age group among U.S.-born males and females, whereas smoking among the foreign-born of both sexes is low at younger ages and remains low at older ages. Taken together, these findings highlight the importance of considering both race/ethnicity and nativity in assessments of smoking patterns and in strategies to reduce overall U.S. smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable health disparities.     

Dynamic Reflections of Crimes,Quasi Democracy and Misery Index in Pakistan

Massive increase in crimes has coexisted with rising inflation and high unemployment for the last couple of decades especially during democratic governments in Pakistan. In this paper, we explore the relationship between crime rate, misery index and democracy in Pakistan from 1975 to 2013. Granger causality test proposed the unidirectional causality running from misery index to crime rate in Pakistan. Estimating the crime function via Pasaran’s conditional error correction model, we found the significant long run equilibrium relationship between Okun’s misery index and crime rate which implies that rising inflation and unemployment rate are the major driving forces towards increasing crime rates in Pakistan. Finally, empirical evidence from Okun’s misery index suggested that people are three times more miserable in quasi democratic periods than that of dictatorship. The Barrow’s misery index model verifies that people are twice worsening in quasi democratic periods. Likewise, reported crimes are nearly twice during quasi democracy than quasi dictatorship. The crime model provided the evidence that people during quasi democratic governments are more likely tending towards crime as compared to quasi dictatorship during the study period in Pakistan. This implicitly advocates the fact that half hearted efforts and ill structured apparatus of democracy can augment the tendency of crime and misery rather than solution of such concerns of the economy.     

U.S. Family Household Momentum and Dynamics: An Extension and Application of the ProFamy Method

The classic headship-rate method for demographic projections of households is not linked to demographic rates, projects a few household types without size, and does not deal with household members other than heads. By comparison, the ProFamy method uses demographic rates as input and projects more detailed household types, sizes, and living arrangements for all members of the population. Tests of projections from 1990 to 2000 using ProFamy and based on observed U.S. demographic rates before 1991 show that discrepancies between our projections and census observations in 2000 are reasonably small, validating the new method. Using data from national surveys and vital statistics, census microfiles, and the ProFamy method, we prepare projections of U.S. households from 2000 to 2050. Medium projections as well as projections based on smaller and larger family scenarios with corresponding combinations of assumptions of marriage/union formation and dissolution, fertility, mortality, and international migration are performed to analyze future trends of U.S. households and their possible higher and lower bounds, as well as enormous racial differentials. To our knowledge, the household projections reported in this article are the first to have found empirical evidence of family household momentum and to have provided informative low and high bounds of various indices of projected future households and living arrangements distributions based on possible changes in demographic parameters.