Democracy Out of Anarchy: The Prospects for Post‐Civil‐War Democracy*

Objective. This study explores the effects of civil war outcome on post‐civil‐war democratization. We employ an expected utility model to argue that the attributes of the civil war that lead to balanced power relations between the warring parties lead to higher levels of postconflict democracy. Methods. We estimate a series of OLS regression models with change in the level of democracy (from the prewar level to five and ten years after the conflict ended) as the dependent variable. Results. Civil wars that end in negotiated settlements are more likely to experience higher levels of democratization than civil wars that end in military victory by either side. Identity‐based conflicts lead to lower levels of democratization while previous democratic experience seems to decrease post‐civil‐war democratization. We find no support for the argument that high war costs and U.N. peace‐keeping forces produce higher levels of democracy. Conclusions. Civil war may lead to more inclusive polities if it serves to even the balance of power between contending groups in the nation. Power balance is more likely to bring about more democratic polities, especially where power sharing is formalized in a negotiated settlement.     

Causality in the logic of decision

In recent years there has been an active debate between proponents of two different models of rational decision. One model is evidential decision theory, which is characterized by the fact that it holds the principle of maximizing expected utility to be appropriate whenever the states are probabilistically independent of the acts. The other model, causal decision theory, holds that the principle of maximizing expected utility is appropriate whenever the states are causally independent of the acts. The proponents of evidential decision theory include Richard Jeffrey and Ellery Eells, who claim that evidential decision theory has significant advantages over causal decision theory. In this paper I discuss the two main advantages which have been claimed for evidential decision theory, and show that in fact evidential decision theory does not possess either of these advantages.     

Aspects concerning entropy and utility

Expected utility maximization problem is one of the most useful tools in mathematical finance, decision analysis and economics. Motivated by statistical model selection, via the principle of expected utility maximization, Friedman and Sandow (J Mach Learn Res 4:257–291, 2003a) considered the model performance question from the point of view of an investor who evaluates models based on the performance of the optimal strategies that the models suggest. They interpreted their performance measures in information theoretic terms and provided new generalizations of Shannon entropy and Kullback–Leibler relative entropy and called them U-entropy and U-relative entropy. In this article, a utility-based criterion for independence of two random variables is defined. Then, Markov’s inequality for probabilities is extended from the U-entropy viewpoint. Moreover, a lower bound for the U-relative entropy is obtained. Finally, a link between conditional U-entropy and conditional Renyi entropy is derived.     

Cross-border school enrolment: Associated factors in the U.S.–Mexico borderlands

This paper examines students who live in Mexico but attend school in the U.S., and looks into the factors associated with their decision to study abroad. Based on Mexico’s 2015 Intercensal Survey, cross-border students are described in terms of their number, location, educational level and socioeconomic characteristics. Subsequently, the study estimates probit models to analyze the factors associated with studying in the United States. Cross-border students are mainly U.S.-born and concentrated in Tijuana and Ciudad Juárez. The probability of being a cross-border student is positively associated with age, household income and having a household member who was born in the U.S. or is a cross-border worker. Cross-border students come from high-income households with strong ties to the United States. The decision to study in the U.S. is likely taken due to the higher quality of the country’s education system and to facilitate an eventual transition into the U.S. labor market.     

Negotiating the American Dream: The Paradox of Aspirations and Achievement among Latino Students and Engagement between their Families and Schools

The lagging achievement of many U.S. Latinos is staggering. Latinos have the highest high school dropout rate. Further, second- and third-generation Latinos in the United States perform less well than do recent immigrants. These statistics belie the hopes and aspirations for upward mobility, a better life, and the deep value for education that are tightly held by many Latino immigrant families. Understanding this paradox between the aspirations of Latino families and their academic outcomes is the focus of this article. The experiences of Latino children in U.S. schools, the incongruence between the cultural worldviews of U.S. schools and Latino families, and the interactions and expectations for partnerships between families and schools are integrated and applied to the question of why Latino students are not reaching their potential, despite goals for achievement and significant parental sacrifice and investment.     

Demand for health risk reductions: A cross-national comparison between the U.S. and Canada

Using a large stated preference survey conducted across the U.S. and Canada, we assess differences in individual willingness to pay (WTP) for health risk reductions between the two countries. Our utility-theoretic choice model allows for systematically varying marginal utilities for avoided future time in different adverse health states (illness-years, recovered/remission years, and lost life-years). We find significant differences between Canadian and U.S. preferences. WTP also differs systematically with age, gender, education, and marital status, as well as a number of attitudinal and subjective health-perception variables. Age profiles for WTP are markedly different across the two countries. Canadians tend to display flatter age profiles, with peak WTP realized at older ages.     

美印核协议中的印裔美国人游说

随着冷战结束和文化多元主义的发展，族裔游说在美国政治中的影响力日益上升。印裔美国人的积极游说在美印核协议的达成过程中发挥了相当重要的作用，保证了美国国会在《海德法案》和美印核协议的审议过程中的高票支持，从而大大提升了印度在美国的战略地位。今后。印裔美国人的游说影响可能继续上升。     

The Wooden Reindeer: From a Journalist's Notebook

I came to Timofei Aleksandrovich Kononov's brigade with a red iaranga (wigwam). (a) The chief, a tall, stooped Even (b) of about sixty, had slaughtered for his guests a small doe that had recently gone lame. While we brewed the tea until it was strong and thick as tar and exchanged news, the brigadier's wife, Agrafena Ivanovna, bent by the years but still a nimble and concerned housekeeper, made supper.     

Two concepts of information

The paper introduces the concept of pragmatic information of the variableX on variableS, relative to decision problemU and criterionK: C(X, S; U, K). For the sake of comparison with the Shannon measure of information,K is interpreted as the maximization of expected utility whileU takes on the special form of an epistemic problem. The two concepts are then comparable and exhibit certain similarities. Some comments on pragmatic information conclude the paper.     

美国反垄断法的演变轨迹——政治博弈的视角

美国反垄断法的历史演变呈现出了典型的“钟摆式”运行轨迹,与其不断“经济学化”的主流解释存在抵牾。经济学理论、政党政治以及经济和战争危机等因素确实对美国反垄断法的演变有影响,但是这些解释都不尽周延。以生产者团体和消费者团体为代表的利益团体之间的“政治博弈”,是导致美国反垄断法钟摆式演变的根本原因。这种博弈塑造了美国的反垄断政策,并不断引导美国反垄断法的发展和演变。     

The dynamics of specific and diffuse support for the U.S. Supreme Court: A panel study

Prior inconsistencies in studies regarding specific and diffuse support for the U.S. Supreme Court have largely resulted from confusing two related yet distinct concepts: the level of diffuse support at a given moment, and change in the level of diffuse support over time. The results of a panel study show that specific support is related to both concepts but in different ways. Overall approval of the Supreme Court positively influences the level of diffuse support at a given moment. However, an individual's reaction to a particular Court decision is mediated by pre-existing ideological tension between the individual and the Court, and can cause a sudden change in that individual's diffuse support level. Post-stimulus diffuse support regeneration within an individual is related to support for democratic norms, awareness of the Court, and satisfaction with other governmental institutions.     

A U.S. Holy War? The Effects of Religion on Iraq War Policy Attitudes*

Objective. Throughout the course of the Iraq War, the Bush Administration has consistently framed its war policy in religious language. Therefore, we investigate the extent to which public religiosity predicts neoconservative foreign policy attitudes. Method. We use the 2005 Baylor Religion Survey to estimate OLS models predicting the effects of religious measures on support for a neoconservative Middle East foreign policy. Findings. We find that support for U.S. Iraq policy is partially an outcome of what we call “sacralization ideology,” as measured by the belief that religious and secular institutions should be more closely in collaboration. Conclusion. We argue that the religious framing of U.S. foreign policy appeals to a certain religious type who is not fully Republican or conservative evangelical.     

How Many Balance Functions Does it Take to Determine a Utility Function?

Call b your balance function at wealth W if you are indifferent between W and a 50–50 lottery with outcomes x and b(x). Given one b, u is arbitrary on one side of W but then determined on the other. Given two b‘s, u is arbitrary between the two W′ s but then determined elsewhere. Additional properties of u restrict the b’s but do not ordinarily make u unique. Contradictions can occur. Given three b′ s, an algorithm is developed using minimal domains of definition that determines the relative utility of the W’s. If it is irrational, then the set S generated by applying all combinations of b’s to W′ s is dense and u is determined. If finitely many b’s are rationally related, then S is discrete, a further algorithm determines it, the values of u on S are equally spaced, and u is arbitrary between any two adjacent points of S but then determined elsewhere. Infinitely many balance functions determine u unless they are rationally related in a uniform way.JEL Classification: D81     

Excerpts from a report by the U.S.-GAO survey of models used by executive agencies in the policy-making process

The General Accounting Office of the U.S. was asked to provide evidence concerning the nature and number of major models used by U.S. Federal Executive Agencies in the policy- making process. A report was issued with a complete listing of the 357 models identified and related agencies. The report is preceded by a statement by Mr. Morton A. Myers, Director of the Program Analysis Division, U.S. General Accounting Office. What follows are excerpts from the statement by Mr. Myers, which the editors of JPM thought to be rather informative. The list of the models identified in this exercise and related agencies follows the statement by Mr. Myers.—Editor     

Considering economic stress and empathic traits in predicting prosocial behaviors among U.S. Latino adolescents

The goal of the current study was to examine two competing models focusing on the roles of empathy‐related traits in the relation between economic stress and prosocial behaviors. First, we examined the mediating roles of perspective taking and empathic concern in the association between economic stress and adolescents’ prosocial behaviors. Second, we examined the moderating role of perspective taking in the association between economic stress and empathic concern, as well as the links between empathic concern and prosocial behaviors. Participants consisted of 307 (46.2% girls; M age = 15.05) U.S. Latino adolescents (77.5% U.S. Mexicans) and their primary caregivers (87.9% mothers). Primary caregivers reported on family‐level economic stress, and adolescents reported on their own perspective taking, empathic concern, and their tendency to engage in six forms of prosocial behaviors. Results demonstrated support for the moderating role of perspective taking on the link between economic stress and empathic concern, which in turn, was associated with multiple forms of helping behaviors. Economic stress was also directly associated with selfless and selfish helping behaviors. The discussion focuses on the multiple roles of empathic traits in understanding the links between economic stress and prosocial outcomes in U.S. Latino youth.     

从冲突到合作是新崛起国的必经之路——以18—19世纪美国崛起及美英关系发展为例

美国建国后,美英关系的发展历程有很多值得研究的课题。其中,美国为确保实力增长一次又一次地进行抗争,而英国从干涉美国的独立、西进和内战到最后默认美国在美洲的霸主地位,经历了近100年的时间。由此可见,一个国家的崛起并最终被其他大国承认,需要历经漫长的岁月。本文认为,正在崛起的中国面对美国围堵不应持有一种超越现实的态度,其追求的应该首先是地区大国地位,把自己国内的事情处理好,而不是寻求扩张性的政策。     

Decision-theoretic aspects of risk-taking behaviour

A crucial problem in economic decision (game) theory is to specify by an algorithm the standards of behaviour which determine the process of decision-making. Recent research has indicated that the attitude to risk is an important argument for finding unique solutions for decision problems. In this study different behaviour-constants of decision-making are reported which clarify that a logical equivalency exists between decision-making, conflict, achievement motive and risk-taking. By using information theoretic arguments as a transform rule, it is suggested to measure risk-preference and risk-aversion in terms of redundancy and related measures.The author is assistant at the University of Bonn (Institut für Industrie-und Verkehrs-politik der Universität Bonn, Adenauerallee 24–26, D-5300 Bonn).     

On the evaluation of solution concepts

It is proposed that solution concepts for games should be evaluated in a way that is analogous to the way a logic is evaluated by a model theory for the language. A solution concept defines a set of strategy profiles, as a logic defines a set of theorems. A model theoretic analysis for a game defines a class of models, which are abstract representations of particular plays of the game. Given an appropriate definition of a model, one can show that various solution concepts are characterized by intuitively natural classes of models in the same sense that the set of theorems of a logic is characterized by a class of models of the language. Sketches of characterization results of this kind are given for rationalizability, Nash equilibrium, and for a refinement of rationalizability —strong rationalizability — that has some features of an equilibrium concept. It is shown that strong rationalizability is equivalent to Nash equilibrium in perfect information games. Extensions of the model theoretic framework that represent belief revision and that permit the characterization of other solution concepts are explored informally.     

How to deal with partially analyzable acts?

In some situations, a decision is best represented by an incompletely analyzed act: conditionally on a given event A, the consequences of the decision on sub-events are perfectly known and uncertainty becomes probabilizable, whereas the plausibility of this event itself remains vague and the decision outcome on the complementary event [`(A)]{\bar{A}} is imprecisely known. In this framework, we study an axiomatic decision model and prove a representation theorem. Resulting decision criteria aggregate partial evaluations consisting of (i) the conditional expected utility associated with the analyzed part of the decision, and (ii) the best and worst consequences of its non-analyzed part. The representation theorem is consistent with a wide variety of decision criteria, which allows for expressing various degrees of knowledge on (A, [`(A)]{A, \bar{A}}) and various types of attitude toward ambiguity and uncertainty. This diversity is taken into account by specific models already existing in the literature. We exploit this fact and propose some particular forms of our model incorporating these models as sub-models and moreover expressing various types of beliefs concerning the relative plausibility of the analyzed and the non-analyzed events ranging from probabilities to complete ignorance that include capacities.