日本失去的二十年——基于中日人口红利比较的视角

"人口红利"是人口因素与经济增长关系研究的深入和发展。亚洲地区经济高速增长和工业化国家人口老龄化条件下经济增长,分别对应第一次"人口红利"和第二次"人口红利"。中国与日本相比,无论是经济增长模式还是人口转变模式,都有着极为相似之处,本文旨在通过对比分析中日两国人口发展与经济发展之间的变化,借鉴日本人口红利期的经验和教训,为中国充分实现第一次人口红利、创造第二次人口红利提供参考。     

经济增长方式转变中的人口障碍──兼论新时期条件下的劳动力配置方向

转变经济增长方式是党的十四届五中全会提出的两个具有全局意义的根本性转变之一。要实现经济增长方式的根本性转变，不但需要对增长方式转变的一般性、规律性进行研究，而且需要对转变过程中将要遇到的特殊问题进行研究。作为世界第一人口大国的中国，人力资源极其丰富固然是经济发展中的一大优势，但要实现经济增长方式的根本性转变，人口方面的一些问题却又成为一个不可忽视的难点。本文从分析经济增长方式转变的内涵及其与我国人口现状之间的关系出发，指出转变经济增长方式过程中将要遇到的人口障碍，并提出在实现经济增长方式转变的新…     

我国高校人口学者赴日本、新加坡进行考察

由复旦大学、中国人民大学、吉林大学4名研究人员组成的中国高等学校人口学考察组,于1983年10月21日至12月2日,赴日本和新加坡进行考察访问。 这次考察的主题是,两国在控制人口增长、降低生育率方面取得的经验,出现的问题和采取的对策。围绕这一主题,着重了解了实现生育率转变的各种社会经济因素、人口年龄结构转变与人口老     

科尔内“人口经济”模型与中国经济增长方式转变

实现经济增长方式的根本转变，是实现今后目标的关键，也是保证国民经济持续、快速、健康发展的重要措施。中国是世界上人口最多的国家，实现经济增长方式的转变，必须考虑人口的影响。科尔内人口增长与经济发展阶段依存关系的理论模型，对于深刻认识中国经济增长方式转变的制约因素以及寻找这一转变实现的根本途径，有重要的意义。本文分析了科尔内模型的基本内容，科尔内模型的意义及局限性，中国转变经济增长方式面临的人口环境及应具备的人口条件。在此基础上，分析了科尔内的理论模型对中国经济方式转变的启示，提出了转变的对策建议     

试论阻碍欠发达地区经济增长方式转变的人口问题

实现我国经济增长方式从粗放型向集约型转变是实现党的十四届五中全会提出的两个具有全局意义的根本转变之一,也是实现党的十五大提出的战略目标的需要。影响经济增长方式转变的因素很多,也很复杂。人口作为经济活动方式转变活动的主体,其规模大小、结构状况、素质高低...     

转变经济增长方式的人口思考

随着我国经济增长方式转变的进行，人们愈益认识到经济增长方式本身是一个复杂的系统，增长方式转变是复杂的系统工程。它不仅涉及经济领域，而且也涉及政治、社会、文化诸方面。人口作为社会生活的主体，无疑是影响经济增长方式转变的重要因素。本文对困扰和阻碍我国经济增长方式转变的人口因素作初步探讨，以期对转型时期我国人口问题的认识和解决及其可持续发展有借鉴意义。一、困扰和阻碍我国经济增长方式转变的人口因素1．人口数量多，增长速度快，不利于资金积累，延缓国民经济整体技术水平提高，使经济增长方式转变基础薄弱。尽管我…     

西部地区加快转变经济发展方式的现实选择

"十二五"规划纲要指出:"转变经济增长方式"到"转变经济发展方式",再到"加快转变经济发展方式",是继续推进中国现代化的战略决策。西部地区经济增长速度和质量明显落后于全国,经济增长方式长期依赖于粗放型经济增长,不利于西部地区经济可持续发展。西部地区要加快经济发展方式的转变,从确定经济发展目标,转变政府职能入手,统筹各种经济关系,提升经济发展转变的内涵,真正实现西部地区经济发展方式的快速转变。     

中日人口年龄构成转变对经济发展影响的比较分析

当前经济上发达的国家都已实现了人口再生产由传统型转向现代型,在人口增长上已趋稳定,有的国家甚至下降。从人口年龄构成看,则转变为老年型。这一转变一方面由于人口稳定对社会经济起着一定的促进作用,另一方面而又因人口高龄化而对社会经济发展产生消极影响。日本是发达国家之一,但在第二次大战战后初期,人口基本上仍属于传统类型,然后却以异乎寻常的速度实现了人口转变,转向现代型的人口再生产。现在,我国的人口再生产也正处于向现代型转变之中,而其速度与日本相比,有过之而无不及。因而,比较研究中日两国在人口年龄构成转变上的异同及其对经济发展的影响,是有相当意义的。     

中印两国人口与经济发展比较

<正> 中印两国是世界上人口最多、同属亚洲且地理上毗邻的两个发展中国家。两国在自然、历史等方面都很近似。自50年代以来,两国都面临着因人口规模大且增长速度快而引起的一系列的社会经济问题。为此,两国政府都先后采取了人口控制政策,以期解决由人口增长过快而带来的各种问题。但由于社会经济制度不同,两国所经历的道路不一样,因此两国在人口与经济的发展方面又存在着很大的差异。把中印两国人口与经济的发展作一比较分析是很有意义的。‖一‖自50年代以来,中印两国都经历了迅速的人口增长过程,印度则更快一些。1951——1987年间,中国人口由5.63亿增加到10.92亿,36年人口净增加94.0%;     

扎扎实实做好人口资源环境工作推动经济社会发展实现良性循环--胡锦涛、温家宝在中央人口资源环境工作座谈会上发表重要讲话

中央人口资源环境工作座谈会2005年3月12日上午在人民大会堂举行。中共中央总书记、国家主席、中央军委主席胡锦涛主持座谈会并发表重要讲话。他强调,全面落实科学发展观,进一步调整经济结构和转变经济增长方式,是缓解人口资源环境压力、实现经济社会全面协调可持续发展的根本途径。要加快调整不合理的经济结构,彻底转变粗放型的经济增长方式,使经济增长建立在提高人口素质、高效利用资源、减少环境污染、注重质量效益的基础上,努力建设资源节约型、环境友好型社会。胡锦涛强调,调整经济结构和转变经济增长方式,是落实科学发展观的必然要求…     

Age–Period–Cohort Decomposition of U.S. and Japanese Birth Rates

Aggregate data on birth rates in the U.S. and Japan, classified by period and by age, are decomposed into age, period, and cohort effects using Bayesian cohort models that were developed to overcome the identification problem in cohort analysis. Main findings are fivefold. First, age, period, and cohort effects movements are all larger in Japan than in the U.S. Second, in both countries, age effects are the largest and are roughly consistent with the life-cycle movements showing an inverted U shape. Third, Easterlin’s cohort size hypothesis roughly fits U.S. birth rates but not Japanese birth rates. Fourth, despite rapid decline of total fertility rates in Japan in last three decades, period effects have been on an upward trend since the early 1990s. Finally, upward and downward cohort effects movements in Japan are derived by rapid economic growth and the Equal Employment Opportunity Law, respectively.     

美国第二产业内部结构演变趋势及经济效应研究

随着美国经济的不断发展,其第二产业内部结构逐步发生变化,特别是工业部门内部出现新特点和新的变化趋势。究其原因主要是因为科技成果在工业生产中的运用,投资结构、消费结构、政府政策等发生变化。同时,工业内部结构变动带来了一定的经济效应,并且美国第二产业内部结构演变趋势对中国第二产业的发展带来启示。     

人口结构因素对美国房地产业发展的影响

房地产业是美国经济的重要组成部分。二战后的美国房地产业发展呈现明显的周期波动状态。除货币市场、利率调整等经济因素和政府调控、政策调整等政治因素外,二战后美国人口结构变化也在很大程度上影响着房地产业的发展变化,其中,以人口年龄结构、家庭结构和空间分布结构对其影响最为显著。     

<Emphasis Type="Bold">Interstate Migration and Employer-to-Employer Transitions in the United States: New Evidence From Administrative Records Data</Emphasis>

Declines in migration across labor markets have prompted concerns that the U.S. economy is becoming less dynamic. In this study, we examine the relationship between residential migration and employer-to-employer transitions in the United States, using both survey and administrative records data. We first note strong disagreement between the Current Population Survey (CPS) and other migration statistics on the timing and severity of any decline in U.S. interstate migration. Despite these divergent patterns for overall residential migration, we find consistent evidence of a substantial decline in economic migration between 2000 and 2010. We find that composition and the returns to migration have limited ability to explain recent changes in interstate migration.     

Racial residential segregation in the sun belt

In recent years demographic researchers have devoted considerable attention to two topics: (1) migration to the sun belt and (2) racial and economic transformation of neighborhoods. This study addresses both, and develops a theoretical and analytical model to test the relationship of intra-urban and inter-urban migration patterns as they relate to race and social class. The study measures and analyzes patterns of racial and economic transition in neighborhoods for two Oklahoma SMSAs. Comparisons are made between differential degrees of residential segregation accounted for by in-migrants, utilizing U.S. Census tracts for 1970 and 1980. The model, once specified and evaluated, demonstrates that patterns and factors traditionally associated with residential segregation may have less relevance forsun belt cities in the coming decades.     

从人口普查看美国200余年社会政治的变化

自 1790年到 2 0 0 0年 ,美国每隔十年就进行一次人口普查。本文根据美国人口普查的历史资料和 2 0 0 0年人口普查的最新资料 ,对 2 0 0余年来美国社会经济及政治的变化进行了分析。     

Divergent Patterns in the Ethnic Transformation of Societies

The uneven timing of the demographic transition in different countries of the world will lead to divergence between countries in ethnic and religious homogeneity. Developed‐country populations that began their fertility transitions relatively early are becoming increasingly diverse with respect to the ethnic origin and religion of their inhabitants, primarily as a result of high recent levels of immigration. Many demographic patterns of the developed world, such as low death and birth rates, are becoming universal. It might be expected that less developed countries will also turn from emigration to experiencing immigration, as their populations age and their economies develop. This essay suggests, however, that future ethnic diversity arising from immigration may be less marked in many of those developing countries than in the West, especially among latecomers to the fertility transition. Five reasons are advanced as impediments to the globalization of ethnic heterogeneity arising from immigration: demographic, economic, political, and factors related to resource constraints, and climate change. The essay considers what social, economic, and political consequences might arise if high levels of ethnic diversity, and possibly ethnic replacement, remained an idiosyncratic peculiarity of today's developed countries, which would therefore diverge in important ways from the rest of the world as the twenty‐first century unfolds.     

The Role of Relative Cohort Size and Relative Income in the Demographic Transition

This paper summarizes the results of other analyses by the author with regard to the importance of relative cohort size (RCS) in determining male relative income (the income of young adults relative to prime-age workers) and general patterns of economic growth, and in turn influencing fertility in the currently more-developed nations. It then goes on to demonstrate that these same effects appear to have been operating in all of the one hundred-odd nations which have experienced the fertility transition since 1950. Parameter estimates based on the experience of all 189 countries identified by the United Nations between 1950 and 1995 are used to simulate the effects on fertility of migration from Third to First World countries. This exercise suggests that we get the best of all possible outcomes with migration: population is reduced in “overcrowded” Third World nations, total world population growth is substantially reduced, and scores of children are given the opportunity of growing up with all the educational and health advantages of U.S. residents.     

A brief for a tax-based U.S. immigration policy

This paper briefly reviews the present state of U.S. immigration policy from an economic perspective. It contends that the present system confounds two independent dimensions of immigration policy—residence and employment. It argues that far too much attention is paid to who is admitted to the U.S. and far too little to what people do once they enter. The proposed policy is a system of taxes and transfer payments designed to regulate the employment of foreign nationals and to compensate domestic workers who are adversely affected economically. The paper works out the economics of the tax and demonstrates that such a system could ideally remove all adverse economic effects of immigration.     

Who Enjoys the Fruits of Growth? Impact of Governments and Markets on Living Standards in Germany,The Netherlands and the U.S.A., 1987–1996

The 1980s and 1990s have been decades of quitegood economic growth in North America and muchof Western Europe. But how have the fruits ofgrowth been shared? This paper reviews changingincome distributions in the U.S., Germany and theNetherlands. These three countries may be takenas exemplars and leading economic performers in``the three worlds of welfare capitalism''(Esping-Andersen, 1990). The U.S. is a liberalwelfare-capitalist state, Germany a corporatiststate, and the Netherlands (less clearly) asocial democratic welfare-capitalist state. Thepaper focuses particularly on income changes inthe bottom, middle and top quintiles and takesa ten year period into account.Previous analyses have shown that labor andmarket income dispersion are increasing, withincreased returns to human capital. Thepotential impact of government through thetax-transfer system has been largely ignored.All three governments redistribute income fromthe rich to the poor. However, the paper showsthat only the Dutch government hasredistributed sufficiently to ensure that thebottom quintile has gained along with others.In Germany and the U.S. the poorest quintile wasconsiderably worse off in absolute terms at theend of the decade.than the beginning. TheGerman government somewhat counteracted thetrend towards greater income dispersion byredistributing to the poorest quintile, so theloss of market income was partly compensated. In the U.S. the impact of government on thepoorest quintile stayed about the same, so thisgroup ended up with about the same decrease indisposable income as market income.The U.S., Germany and the Netherlands are theonly three countries for which ten or moreconsecutive years of panel data are available.The data come from the PSID-GSOEP EquivalentFile 1980-97 and from a comparable fileconstructed from the Dutch SEP data.