AN EVALUATION OF TWO MODELS OF UNDERGRADUATE STATISTICS

The paper reports on a large scale evaluation of two alternative models of undergraduate statistics courses. The traditional course orientation was compared with a problem-solving orientation in which the emphasis was on real world problem-solving, during the winter and spring quarters of 1973–74. The evaluation battery included behavioral and problem-solving skill measures. The findings indicate that improvements in statistics programs can be made.     

ORGANIZATIONAL CHOICE AND SOME CORRELATES OF INDIVIDUALS' EXPECTANCIES1

This study uses expectancy theory to predict the sorority choices of 121 undergraduate students. Results show that the complete, multiplicative expectancy model is only a slightly better predictor of choice behavior than other versions of the model. Several personal and situational correlates of individuals' expectancies of entering sororities also are examined. Results show significant relationships between expectancy and subjects' self-esteem, perception of value similarity with sorority members, and number of perceived friendships with sorority members.     

SOME ASPECTS OF THE DYNAMIC PROPERTIES OF ECONOMETRIC MODELS*

Recent efforts by several authors have resulted in the development of techniques for analytically describing the dynamic properties of linear stochastic difference equation models ¹ 1 For examples of this work see Chow [1]; Chow and Levitan [2] [3]; Howrey [8] [9]; Howrey and Kelejian [10] and Howrey and Klein [11].
. Since these techniques have not been extensively applied to econometric models and consequently are not generally familiar to economic modelers, the purpose of this paper is to summarize the techniques these researchers have developed and to illustrate them using a simple (and admittedly unrealistic) econometric model.     

DYNAMIC DISAGGREGATE CHOICE MODELS,WITH AN APPLICATION IN TRANSPORTATION

A standard assumption of disaggregate mode-choice models is that an individual faced with a choice among several available alternative transportation modes compares their utilities. These utilities are almost always expressed as a linear composite measure of various perceived benefits which are assumed constant. However, the individual's perceptions change as he learns, acquires new habits, or adapts to different physical, economic, and social circumstances. In order to account for these changes, two dynamic models of model-choice behavior are developed herein. These two models are based on two common postulates. (1) One alternative is preferred over another only if the absolute difference in their utilities exceeds a positive constant; otherwise, the decision maker is indifferent toward the two alternatives. (2) If an alternative is preferred, it will be chosen with certainty. In the indifference state, the individual is postulated to randomly choose one of the two alternatives (Model 1) or choose the same alternative as was most recently chosen (Model 2). Choice probabilities derived from these two models are shown to differ from those obtained using the conventional logit model. If there is a strong loyalty toward a mode, the logit model underestimates its choice probability when that mode is less attractive than the competing mode. The results are illustrated using numerical examples.     

SIMULATION OF INFORMATION CHOICE

Beginning with the information economics framework and a multi-period decision model [15], this paper considers the use of computer simulation methods within an information system choice environment. Actual decision behavior is replaced by optimal decision rules, and simulation is used to evaluate the effects of parameter changes in the environmental model. Simulation is shown to be functional (1) in estimating the value of alternative information structures within a fifteen period decision model and (2) in providing sensitivity and statistical data which would be useful both for different decision maker utility functions and for a variety of information system design questions.     

REPLICATION OF A CHOICE MODEL

This study provides an operational replication of a proposed multiattribute choice model. The necessity of replication in the decision sciences in general and in consumer behavior in particular is discussed. Several alternative forms of multiattribute choice models are considered. Results are supportive of earlier efforts in this area.     

QUANTITATIVE METHODS IN THE UNDERGRADUATE CURRICULA OF AACSB MEMBER INSTITUTIONS

Since the discipline of quantitative methods varies more widely from institution to institution than any other discipline, a survey was conducted to establish a profile of the undergraduate quantitative methods curricula. The survey was made among member institutions of the American Association of Collegiate Schools of Business in order to determine the current status of the structure and orientation of undergraduate programs in quantitative methods, faculty background and requirements, undergraduate course requirements for each of the major areas in business, and directions of future changes. This paper presents the survey results.     

MODELS OF PARTS-ORIENTING SYSTEMS*

An analytical model to estimate, evaluate, and compare the behavior and performance of parts-orienting systems for automated manufacturing systems is developed. The model can be applied to parts-orienting systems for both traditional series-structured manufacturing systems and nontraditionally structured flexible manufacturing systems. Numerical examples are given for typical system configurations such as the pure series system, the pure parallel system, and the pure feedback system.     

THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN INTEGRATIVE CURRICULUM IN AN UNDERGRADUATE BUSINESS PROGRAM*

This paper describes how the core portion of the undergraduate business program at Indiana University was revised to facilitate integration of basic functionally oriented decision making skills and thus help students gain a deeper understanding of the interdependence of business decisions. It relates, in essence, why and how a single computer-oriented case study which demanded a solution to a large-scale, unified finance-marketing-production problem was used at Indiana University, mentions how we plan to accomplish further integration of functional material, and provides some insight into student reaction to what was, in fact, a massive project from both student and administrative points of view.     

DYNAMIC MODELS OF BOND REFUNDING*

Dynamic programming models of bond refunding have been given by Weingartner [14], Kalymon [8] and Elton and Gruber [4]. This paper gives a formulation of this problem that lends itself to extensions including the term structure of interest rates, delayed-call provisions, and “rolling over” the outstanding debt. Finally, the cost of computation is examined, along with some examples.     

太原理工大學经济管理学院

太原理工大学经济管理学院成立于1998年7月,由原山西矿业学院经济贸易系和原太原工业大学企业管理系合并组建而成。管理学科始办于1984年,是国内理工科院校中较早开办经济管理类专业的学校之     

SMALL PANELS OF EXPERTS IN DICHOTOMOUS CHOICE SITUATIONS*

This paper analyzes an expert resolution problem under an uncertain dichotomous choice situation. The experts share a common system of norms and therefore they all prefer the alternative that best suits their purpose. The selection of such an alternative is referred to as a correct choice. Our analysis of optimal decision rules for panels of independent experts is pursued for n-member decision-making bodies, n≤ 5. The suggested optimality criterion is the maximization of the probability of the panel's making the correct choice. Within our framework, this criterion is equivalent to the more common criterion of expected-utility maximization. For three-member panels of experts, the expert resolution problem is solved and illustrated by means of a medical application. For four-member panels, we list the three relevant decision rules, specify the conditions for all possible rankings of these rules, and, finally, present an extended consulting application. We conclude by listing seven relevant decision rules in the case of five-member decision-making bodies.     

MANAGERIAL USE OF DYNAMIC STRUCTURAL MODELS*

Dynamic structural models were introduced as early as 1958 as “Industrial Dynamics, but there has been little managerial use and little response in the academic world. Yet, the basic modeling methods provide an important mode for examining the broad interacting effects of large systems. More recent work appears to make structural and dynamic models understandable and accessible to individuals not trained in the decision sciences. The nature of the modeling methods is such that managers and policy makers in public systems can be involved directly in the model building process. The authors hope that this survey paper may help rekindle interest.     

CHOICE DILEMMA AS A PREDICTOR OF GROUP RISK BEHAVIOR1

Interest in the Choice Dilemma Questionnaire (CDQ) has centered around the risk shift paradigm rather than around using the CDQ as a measure of an individual's risk preferences. Using 45 lower and middle management bankers as subjects in a computer-based simulation game, the authors found a significant relationship (p < .05) between risk propensity of group members and an independent measure of group risk behavior. Thus, the CDQ may be a more general measure of risk preference than is commonly assumed.     

AN EMPIRICAL EVALUATION OF INDIVIDUAL ITEM FORECASTING MODELS

A computer simulation experiment was replicated to correct errors in an earlier paper and to compare seven individual item forecasting models across five different demand patterns. Results confirm previous findings that the better forecasting model depends upon the demand pattern and the forecast horizon, as well as the noise level. Nevertheless, exponential double smoothing emerged as the most robust model.     

SPECIFICATION AND ESTIMATION OF LOGICALLY CONSISTENT LINEAR MODELS

The implications of constrained dependent and independent variables for model parameters are examined. In the context of linear model systems, it is shown that polyhedral constraints on the dependent variables will hold over the domain of the independent variables when a set of polyhedral constraints is satisfied by the model parameters. This result may be used in parameter estimation, in which case all predicted values of the dependent variables are consistent with constraints on the actual values. Also, the implicit constraints that define the set of parameters for many commonly used linear stochastic models with an error term yield values of the dependent variables consistent with the explicit constraints. Models possessing these properties are termed “logically consistent”.     

ON THE SOLUTION OF SPATIAL EQUILIBRIUM MODELS*

Recent advances in mathematical programming methods and computing technology have the potential for overcoming the many formidable barriers to the widespread solution of nonlinear spatial models. In particular, the recent public availability of the software package MINOS/AUGMENTED has major implications for both policy and theoretical research involving spatial models. In this paper, mathematical programming formulations of two highly nonlinear spatial models are provided, model solutions presented, and associated computational experience discussed. In addition, related work is discussed briefly and suggestions are advanced concerning the potential role of the package in furthering the objectives of this related work. Subject Areas: Mathematical Programming, Transportation, and Urban and Regional Planning.     

THE CHOICE OF EXCHANGE‐RATE REGIME AND SPECULATIVE ATTACKS

We develop a framework that makes it possible to study, for the first time, the strategic interaction between the ex ante choice of exchange‐rate regime and the likelihood of ex post currency attacks. The optimal regime is determined by a policymaker who trades off the loss from nominal exchange‐rate uncertainty against the cost of adopting a given regime. This cost increases, in turn, with the fraction of speculators who attack the local currency. Searching for the optimal regime within the class of exchange‐rate bands, we show that the optimal regime can be either a peg (a zero‐width band), a free float (an infinite‐width band), or a nondegenerate band of finite width. We study the effect of several factors on the optimal regime and on the probability of currency attacks. In particular, we show that a Tobin tax induces policymakers to set less flexible regimes. In our model, this generates an increase in the probability of currency attacks. (JEL: F31, D84)     

SOME TESTS OF BINOMIAL PROBABILITY ASSESSMENTS

A replication of the Alpert-Raiffa probability assessment experiment is used to motivate the development of several tests for evaluating assessors. The tests permit an evaluation of an assessor's accuracy in estimating target quantities and in estimating his own uncertainty as well. Assumption of normal subjective distributions permits the determination of subjective variances. Data from trial assessments are employed to test models which assert that assessed quantities are equal to subjectively assessed error variances. Several tests of the latter type are compared using data from individual, as well as pooled, assessors.