Shared planning: a new foundation for quality criteria.

The Chinese word for crisis has two characters. One for danger and one for opportunity. A crisis is a time for awakening to new perspectives and for asking different questions. The widely touted "liability crisis" in the health care field provides just such a time for new approaches. Perhaps there is a way to establish market mechanisms for decision making that gives expression to the desires and values of consumers while respecting the abilities and preferences of physicians. Quality might then be the result of natural selection or, more accurately, of market demand. Such a system would acknowledge that quality in medicine is not for defining. It's for having. Quality should be obtained in bargaining for services, not in mandates of professional regulation.     

Quality Provision with Heterogeneous Consumer Reservation Utilities

This study examines a firm's quality and price decisions when consumers differ not only in their willingness‐to‐pay for quality but also in their reservation utility for the basic product. We find that while the firm offers lower‐quality products when consumers' valuations for quality deteriorate, the optimal quality may increase with a negative shift in consumers' reservation utilities. We also investigate the optimal price and quality of the products within a vertically differentiated product line when the number of products is exogenously given. The existing literature shows that when consumers differ only in their willingness‐to‐pay for quality, the firm sets the efficient quality for consumers with the highest valuation for quality, whereas the concern for cannibalization pushes down the quality of inferior products. We find that when consumers are heterogeneous in both their reservation utility and valuation for quality, the concern for cannibalization may distort the quality upwards, even for consumers with the highest willingness‐to‐pay for quality. In addition, a low‐quality product may enjoy a higher profit margin than a high‐quality product within the product line.     

Estimation of Dietary Exposure to Chemicals: A Case Study Illustrating Methods of Distributional Analyses for Food Consumption Data

There are a number of sources of variability in food consumption patterns and residue levels of a particular chemical (e.g., pesticide, food additive) in commodities that lead to an expected high level of variability in dietary exposures across a population. This paper focuses on examples of consumption pattern survey data for specific commodities, namely that for wine and grape juice, and demonstrates how such data might be analyzed in preparation for performing stochastic analyses of dietary exposure. Data from the NIAAA/NHIS wine consumption survey were subset for gender and age group and, with matched body weight data from the survey database, were used to define empirically-based percentile estimates for wine intake (μl wine/kg body weight) for the strata of interest. The data for these two subpopulations were analyzed to estimate 14-day consumption distributional statistics and distributions for only those days on which wine was consumed. Data subsets for all wine-consuming adults and wine-consuming females ages 18 through 45, were determined to fit a lognormal distribution ( R ²= 0.99 for both datasets). Market share data were incorporated into estimation of chronic exposures to hypothetical chemical residues in imported table wine. As a separate example, treatment of grape juice consumption data for females, ages 18–40, as a simple lognormal distribution resulted in a significant underestimation of intake, and thus exposure, because the actual distribution is a mixture (i.e., multiple subpopulations of grape juice consumers exist in the parent distribution). Thus, deriving dietary intake statistics from food consumption survey data requires careful analysis of the underlying empirical distributions.     

Designing a performance measurement system for the research activities: A reference framework and an empirical study

Designing a performance measurement system (PMS) for R&D activities is a very critical but challenging task for supporting decision making and people motivation. Therefore, the subject is widely discussed in literature, but the use of a PMS for R&D is still uncommon among companies.The paper aims at making a step further in the field, elaborating a reference framework that describes the logical steps for the definition of a PMS for R&D. Moreover, the problem of designing an effective PMS is in-depth studied in a real context, a biotech company that operates in the field of pharmaceutical research.     

Exposure Reconstruction for the TCDD-Exposed NIOSH Cohort Using a Concentration- and Age-Dependent Model of Elimination

Recent studies demonstrating a concentration dependence of elimination of 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin (TCDD) suggest that previous estimates of exposure for occupationally exposed cohorts may have underestimated actual exposure, resulting in a potential overestimate of the carcinogenic potency of TCDD in humans based on the mortality data for these cohorts. Using a database on U.S. chemical manufacturing workers potentially exposed to TCDD compiled by the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH), we evaluated the impact of using a concentration- and age-dependent elimination model (CADM) (Aylward et al., 2005) on estimates of serum lipid area under the curve (AUC) for the NIOSH cohort. These data were used previously by Steenland et al. (2001) in combination with a first-order elimination model with an 8.7-year half-life to estimate cumulative serum lipid concentration (equivalent to AUC) for these workers for use in cancer dose-response assessment. Serum lipid TCDD measurements taken in 1988 for a subset of the cohort were combined with the NIOSH job exposure matrix and work histories to estimate dose rates per unit of exposure score. We evaluated the effect of choices in regression model (regression on untransformed vs. ln-transformed data and inclusion of a nonzero regression intercept) as well as the impact of choices of elimination models and parameters on estimated AUCs for the cohort. Central estimates for dose rate parameters derived from the serum-sampled subcohort were applied with the elimination models to time-specific exposure scores for the entire cohort to generate AUC estimates for all cohort members. Use of the CADM resulted in improved model fits to the serum sampling data compared to the first-order models. Dose rates varied by a factor of 50 among different combinations of elimination model, parameter sets, and regression models. Use of a CADM results in increases of up to five-fold in AUC estimates for the more highly exposed members of the cohort compared to estimates obtained using the first-order model with 8.7-year half-life. This degree of variation in the AUC estimates for this cohort would affect substantially the cancer potency estimates derived from the mortality data from this cohort. Such variability and uncertainty in the reconstructed serum lipid AUC estimates for this cohort, depending on elimination model, parameter set, and regression model, have not been described previously and are critical components in evaluating the dose-response data from the occupationally exposed populations.     

Reproductive and Developmental Risks from Ethylene Oxide: A Probabilistic Characterization of Possible Regulatory Thresholds

Ethylene oxide is a gas produced in large quantities in the United States that is used primarily as a chemical intermediate in the production of ethylene glycol, propylene glycol, non-ionic surfactants, ethanolamines, glycol ethers, and other chemicals. It has been well established that ethylene oxide can induce cancer, genetic, reproductive and developmental, and acute health effects in animals. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency is currently developing both a cancer potency factor and a reference concentration (RfC) for ethylene oxide. This study used the rich database on the reproductive and developmental effects of ethylene oxide to develop a probabilistic characterization of possible regulatory thresholds for ethylene oxide. This analysis was based on the standard regulatory approach for noncancer risk assessment, but involved several innovative elements, such as: (1) the use of advanced statistical methods to account for correlations in developmental outcomes among littermates and allow for simultaneous control of covariates (such as litter size); (2) the application of a probabilistic approach for characterizing the uncertainty in extrapolating the animal results to humans; and (3) the use of a quantitative approach to account for the variation in heterogeneity among the human population. This article presents several classes of results, including: (1) probabilistic characterizations of ED10s for two quantal reproductive outcomes-resorption and fetal death, (2) probabilistic characterizations of one developmental outcome-the dose expected to yield a 5% reduction in fetal (or pup) weight, (3) estimates of the RfCs that would result from using these values in the standard regulatory approach for noncancer risk assessment, and (4) a probabilistic characterization of the level of ethylene oxide exposure that would be expected to yield a 1/1,000 increase in the risk of reproductive or developmental outcomes in exposed human populations.     

Labor Utilization Effects of Labor Scheduling Flexibility Alternatives in a Tour Scheduling Environment

This study used a factorial experimental design and a new modeling methodology to investigate the impact of a number of labor scheduling flexibility alternatives and labor requirements characteristics on labor utilization within a tour scheduling environment. Break-placement flexibility and shift-length flexibility were found to be extremely effective in improving labor utilization for all labor requirement distributions used. Flexibility with respect to the number of days included in a tour schedule resulted in substantial improvement in labor utilization for all labor requirements distributions exhibiting daily and/or weekly variation. Surprisingly, virtually no improvement in labor utilization was achieved for any labor requirement distribution by the removal of requirements for consecutive days off. In addition, almost no improvement was found by allowing the shift start time to vary across the working days included in tours. High labor requirement amplitude was found to have a strong adverse effect on labor utilization while longer operational days were associated with improved labor utilization for all labor requirement distributions. We discuss the implications of these results for service operations management and provide suggestions for future research.     

Change of Thought: Findings on Planning for Shrinkage from a Regional Design Competition

Shrinkage or ‘no growth’ is expected to condition the long-term perspective of many Western cities and regions. Planning for shrinkage differs substantively from planning for growth and therefore calls for a change of thought in spatial planning. In our paper, we analyse how planning professionals responded to a ‘planning for shrinkage’ challenge in a regional design competition. We found that they fully adapted to the shrinking perspective, took a strategic approach, and promoted a leading role for local inhabitants. Collaboration with local inhabitants and entrepreneurs, creating new alliances, and timing emerge as key themes for planning professionals in planning for shrinkage.     

The Role of Society in Engineering Risk Analysis: A Capabilities-Based Approach

This article proposes a new conceptual framework in engineering risk analysis to account for the net impact of hazards on individuals in a society. It analyzes four limitations of prevailing approaches to risk analysis and suggests a way to overcome them. These limitations are a result of how societal impacts are characteristically accounted for and valued. Prevailing approaches typically focus too narrowly on the consequences of natural or man-made hazards, not accounting for the broader societal impacts of such hazards. Such approaches lack a uniform and consistent metric for accounting for the impact of the nonquantifiable consequences (like psychological trauma or societal impacts) and rely upon implicit and potentially inaccurate value judgments when evaluating risks. To overcome these limitations, we propose an alternative, Capabilities-Based Approach to the treatment of society in risk analysis. A similar approach is currently used by the United Nations to quantitatively measure the degree of development in countries around the world. In a Capabilities-Based Approach, the potential benefits and losses due to a hazard are measured and compared in a uniform way by using individual capabilities (functionings individuals are able, still able, or unable to achieve) as a metric. This Capabilities-Based Approach provides a foundation for identifying and quantifying the broader, complex societal consequences of hazards and is based on explicit, value judgments. The Capabilities-Based Approach can accommodate different methods or techniques for risk determination and for risk evaluation and can be used in assessing risk in diverse types of hazards (natural or man-made) and different magnitudes that range from minor to catastrophic. In addition, implementing a Capabilities-Based Approach contributes to the development of a single standard for public policy decision making, since a Capabilities-Based Approach is already in use in development economics and policy.     

Methodology for setting risk-based concentrations of contaminants in soil and groundwater and application to a model contaminated site

In Japan, environmental standards for contaminants in groundwater and in leachate from soil are set with the assumption that they are used for drinking water over a human lifetime. Where there is neither a well nor groundwater used for drinking, the standard is thus too severe. Therefore, remediation based on these standards incurs excessive effort and cost. In contrast, the environmental-assessment procedure used in the United States and the Netherlands considers the site conditions (land use, existing wells, etc.); however, a risk assessment is required for each site. Therefore, this study proposes a new framework for judging contamination in Japan by considering the merits of the environmental standards used and a method for risk assessment. The framework involves setting risk-based concentrations that are attainable remediation goals for contaminants in soil and groundwater. The framework was then applied to a model contaminated site for risk management, and the results are discussed regarding the effectiveness and applicability of the new methodology.     

Mehr als nur Überleben — Anerkennung und Selbstbehauptung

More than survive — acknoledgement and self-assertiveness. Coaching for feministic researchers The need for coaching for feminist women academics arises from the unfavourable conditions of their employment at Universities. This relates, in particular, to the conditions which are important for professional ?power“ such as the need for acknowledgement and the opportunity for assertiveness. Group coaching for women, in this case, serves to strengthen women’s belief in themselves which then becomes a resource and a basis for self-assertiveness. Solidarity and a long-term career perspective are indispensable.     

From Soviet to Europe: Returns to Education Puzzle in Bulgaria

This article makes a systematic presentation of returns to education in Bulgaria, a country that has witnessed a number of dramatic structural changes over the last two decades. It examines the headway of returns to education for Bulgaria in two observed economic regimes — from communism to EU membership. The findings show a steady increase in returns to education for both men and women until 2003. The average returns to one additional year of education rose from 1.1 per cent in 1986 to 5.1 per cent in 2003 for men and from 2.1 to 5.9 per cent for women. Quantile regression estimations between 1986 and 2003 evince that the most prominent increase in the wage premium occurred at the top end of the distribution, where the rate of returns to education increased in particular for women — from a negative and insignificant sign in 1986 to 7 per cent in 2003. However, this increasing trend in returns to education seems to take an inverted U‐shape in 2007, the year when the country joined the EU, which poses a new puzzle to be resolved. To this end, the current article introduces possible explanations for such a puzzle and sheds lights on a number of insightful policy implications.     

A Risk Analysis for Airborne Pathogens with Low Infectious Doses: Application to Respirator Selection Against Coccidioides immitis Spores

Probability models incorporating a deterministic versus stochastic infectious dose are described for estimating infection risk due to airborne pathogens that infect at low doses. Such pathogens can be occupational hazards or candidate agents for bioterrorism. Inputs include parameters for the infectious dose model, distribution parameters for ambient pathogen concentrations, the breathing rate, the duration of an exposure period, the anticipated number of exposure periods, and, if a respirator device is used, distribution parameters for respirator penetration values. Application of the models is illustrated with a hypothetical scenario involving exposure to Coccidioides immitis, a fungus present in soil in areas of the southwestern United States Inhaling C. immitis spores causes a respiratory tract infection and is a recognized occupational hazard in jobs involving soil dust exposure in endemic areas An uncertainty analysis is applied to risk estimation in the context of selecting respiratory protection with a desired degree of efficacy.     

A Simulation of Partial Information Use in Decision Making: Implications for DSS Design

Information matrices are often the output produced by a decision support system. These matrices are a common method for expressing a decision situation under different decision-making scenarios. The decisions involved in designing a decision support system to generate the information matrix are important and involve several cost and benefit components. A designer needs guidance in making effective design decisions in this context. Such guidance can be provided by considering the relationships among specific design decisions, costs, and benefits. The general objective of this study is to provide a comprehensive framework for this purpose. This study is the first to develop and present a comprehensive cost-benefit framework for evaluating design decisions for a variety of scenarios. The specific objective of this research is to provide guidance regarding the number of available information dimensions to incorporate in a computer-based decision aid. Simulation experiments are conducted with a completely specified model based on the cost-benefit framework (including needed assumptions) to evaluate how many information dimensions to include for a specific information matrix size to achieve a balance between information use costs and decision quality. Based upon extensive simulation analyses for a hypothetical decision maker, the practical guideline found for designers is to include only the top half of the relevant information dimensions in any specific decision support system. Over a large number of repeating choice decisions, the savings in cognitive effort and information gathering costs clearly offset relatively minor losses in decision quality.     

A Seasonal Index for Business

This paper explores the problem of obtaining a multiplicative seasonal index for forecasting sales from a small set of historical data (as is common in business applications) and in the presence of a trend. It is shown that the standard method for generating a seasonal index (from a centered moving average) contains a systematic error. This error is transmitted through to forecasts that use the seasonal index and causes higher than necessary safety stocks and other consequences. The paper presents two alternative consistent methods for estimating the seasonal index in the presence of a trend, one for a multiplicative (nonlinear) trend and one for an additive (linear) trend. These methods may be run easily on a spreadsheet program or on statistical software. The nonlinear method is suggested as a convenient alternative to the standard method in many circumstances.     

Bayesian Methods for Model Uncertainty Analysis with Application to Future Sea Level Rise

This paper addresses the use of data for identifying and characterizing uncertainties in model parameters and predictions. The Bayesian Monte Carlo method is formally presented and elaborated, and applied to the analysis of the uncertainty in a predictive model for global mean sea level change. The method uses observations of output variables, made with an assumed error structure, to determine a posterior distribution of model outputs. This is used to derive a posterior distribution for the model parameters. Results demonstrate the resolution of the uncertainty that is obtained as a result of the Bayesian analysis and also indicate the key contributors to the uncertainty in the sea level rise model. While the technique is illustrated with a simple, preliminary model, the analysis provides an iterative framework for model refinement. The methodology developed in this paper provides a mechanism for the incorporation of ongoing data collection and research in decision-making for problems involving uncertain environmental change.     

COMPETITION AND RELATIONAL CONTRACTS: THE ROLE OF UNEMPLOYMENT AS A DISCIPLINARY DEVICE

Abstract When workers are faced with the threat of unemployment, their relationship with a particular firm becomes valuable. As a result, a worker may comply with the terms of a relational contract that demands high effort even when performance is not enforceable by a third party. But can relational contracts motivate high effort when workers can easily find alternative jobs? We examine how competition for labor affects the emergence of relational contracts and their effectiveness in overcoming moral hazard in the labor market. We show that effective relational contracts do emerge in a market with excess demand for labor. Long‐term relationships turn out to be less frequent when there is excess demand for labor than they are in a market characterized by exogenous unemployment. However, stronger competition for labor does not impair labor market efficiency: higher wages induced by competition lead to higher effort out of concerns for reciprocity.     

Estimating output mix effectiveness: An applied scenario approach for the Armed Forces

The ability of public sector policy makers to prioritize has a huge impact on the effectiveness of public service provision. Public services can take the form of final outputs demanded by consumers or of intermediate outputs contributing to a process of realizing the higher goals of society. In doing the right things, policy makers choose a mix of intermediate outputs maximizing their preference value for public service outcomes, while managers do things right when responsible for producing outputs efficiently. This distinction enables us to pinpoint important reasons for inefficiencies in the provision of public services. Taking advantage of the method of scenario based planning, a model for measuring effectiveness is developed for situations where traditional methods such as two-stage regressions fail due to long time lags and lack of variation in the variables. Scenarios take the role of outcomes in the modeling of outcome mapping functions, where each scenario represents a set of environmental variables. The model is specified for the provision of defense outcomes, where the lag between changes in input and impacts on outcomes are substantial. From a sample of 12 combat units in the Norwegian Armed Forces, producing different outputs, we find that inefficiencies in output mix can explain most of the changes in overall effectiveness over a four-year period of time.     

Moral Aspects of Executive Leadership

This paper argues that the crisis in management is a crisis in leadership and that the heart of leadership is the moral challenge for managers to see themselves and others as colleagues and collaborators. The search for a new leadership paradigm is a call to foster the human spiritual dimension which respects the deepest concerns and values of everyone in the enterprise. Islamic beliefs and heritage provide a natural basis for transformational leadership and for implementing a paradigm shift which integrates spirituality and work. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Universal equation for the relative change in profit of manufacturing company

In contemporary conditions of the company's business operations, where high dynamics of costs, sales volume and change of production programme is present, it is of crucial importance to investigate their effects on the change of profit. Starting from cost–volume–profit equation, the aim is to arrive at a universal equation that will simultaneously measure a relative change in profit for a number of products, not only under the influence of change in sales volume but also of other relevant variables, such as sales price, fixed and variable costs. The basic hypothesis is that it is possible to establish in a form of universal equation the dependence between the change in profit and change in influential variables. In this investigation, first it was observed the partial influence of some variables on the change in profit and their dependence was determined for a single product, and then for more than one product. Finally, by summing up all those effects, a universal equation of profit change was obtained. The derived universal equation for the relative change in profit along with simultaneous effects of several variables makes possible for the company management to more simply determine the profit for diverse conditions of business operations. The universal equation for the relative change in profit was applied in one company and the results obtained confirm its significance.