White and nonwhite trends in first birth timing: Comparisons using vital registration and current population surveys

The magnitude of racial differences in first birth timing vary greatly depending upon the data sources from which they are estimated. Vital registration data (Heuser 1976; with updates from the National Center for Health Statistics 1974–1990) show that in recent years nonwhites have higher risks of a first birth at virtually all ages compared to whites. As a result very large and historically novel differentials in childlessness are forecast using these data (see Rindfuss et al. 1988; Chen & Morgan 1991; Morgan & Chen 1992). However, retrospective fertility history data collected from the 1980, 1985 and 1990 Current Population Surveys (CPS) suggest much smaller racial differences in completed childlessness and isolate racial differences in probabilities of first births at young ages. Differences also exist between theses two series for whites prior to the mid-1960s but not afterwards. Reasons for these differing estimates are suggested and examined. We conclude that a substantial portion of the differences result from an accumulation of biases in the vital registration estimates that affect primarily estimates of first birth timing. Thus, the CPS data provide a more firm basis for racial comparisons of first birth timing.     

Marital decision-making and the timing of first birth in rural China before the 1990s

Using a sample of couples drawn from the three provinces of Guangdong, Shandong, and Shaanxi, we investigated whether couples’ increasing freedom to choose whom to marry influenced the timing of first birth in rural China during the four decades before the 1990s. The shortening of first-birth intervals in the period is found to be associated with the shift from arranged to free-choice marriages. The association is attributed largely to increased intimacy and coital frequency after marriage together with postponement of age at first marriage.     

Land Use and Marriage Timing in Nepal

I examine the relationship between patterns of land use and marriage timing in the Chitwan Valley, a rural area in south-central Nepal. In this setting, I conceptualize a relevant dimension of land use as the portion of land in each neighborhood devoted to agriculture. Using discrete-time event history models, I examine the relationship between the proportion of land devoted to agriculture and the rate of marriage among 811 never-married individuals aged 15–20 years. Agricultural land has a positive association with marriage rates. As potential intervening mechanisms between agricultural land and marriage rates, I propose nonfamily organizations, school and work activities, and local marriage markets. A portion of the relationship between land and marriage rates appears to be mediated through the accessibility of nonfamily employers. Respondents’ actual employment activities, however, fail to mediate the effects of agricultural land or nonfamily employers. The precise mechanisms linking land use to marriage remain unclear.     

A cohort analysis of the timing of first birth and fertility in Ghana

This paper examines the nature of the inverse association between age at first birth and fertility across successive generations of Ghanaian women. Within the context of enhanced non-marital opportunities for contemporary women and declining fertility, we develop a rationale for and test the hypothesis that in a medium fertility environment as currently found in Ghana, the effect of age at first birth on fertility becomes more important than ever before. Five birth cohorts were identified (1938–1944; 1945–1949;1950–1954; 1955–1959; 1960–1964)from a merged file of the 1988, 1993 and 1998 Ghana Demographic and Health Surveys. The analyses were restricted to women over 35 years old at the time of the surveys, which allowed us to use current parity as a reasonable proxy for completed fertility. Preliminary results suggest that women who had first births early tend to have a higher number of births than those whose first births occur late, regardless of birth cohort. In multivariate analyses, the effect of age at first birth as a determinant of fertility was found to be more substantial among later cohorts. The implications of the findings are discussed.     

Urban influences on farmland use in New York State

This article assesses the relationship between demographic change and structural adjustments in agriculture. A number of demographic and economic analyses have posited an inverse relationship between post-1950 exurban population growth and agricultural viability, especially in the Northeast Region of the USA. To test this hypothesis, a multivariate model of percent change in county land in farms over the period 1950–1987 is estimated, and the findings only partially support the population hypothesis. Estimation results indicate that the effect of core metropolitan status is significant, but that the effects of rural population change, rural nonfarm population change, and county population deconcentration are not. The analysis demonstrates that maintenance of land in farm use largely depends upon economic forces that are national and regional in scope, and almost exclusively outside the purview of state and local farmland protection programs.     

The cost of vaginal birth at home,in a birth centre or in a hospital setting in New South Wales: A micro-costing study

BackgroundWomen want greater choice of place of birth in New South Wales, Australia. It is perceived to be more costly to health services for women with a healthy pregnancy to give birth at home or in a birth centre. It is not known how much it costs the health service to provide care for women planning to give birth in these settings.AimThe aim of this study was to determine the direct cost of giving birth vaginally at home, in a birth centre or in a hospital for women at low risk of complications, in New South Wales.MethodsA micro-costing design was used. Observational (time and motion) and resource use data collection was undertaken to identify the staff time and resources required to provide care in a public hospital, birth centre or at home for women with a healthy pregnancy.FindingsThe median cost of providing care for women who plan to give birth at home, in a birth centre and in a hospital were similar (AUD $2150.07, $2100.59 and $2097.30 respectively). Midwifery time was the largest contributor to the cost of birth at home, and overhead costs accounted for over half of the total cost of BC and hospital birth. The cost of consumables was low in all three settings.ConclusionIn this study, we have found there is little difference in the cost to the health service when a woman has an uncomplicated vaginal birth at home, in a birth centre or in a hospital setting.     

The transition to parenthood in Puerto Rico: Occupational status and the timing of first births

This study examines the relationship between occupational status and fertility timing during a period of rapid development in Puerto Rico. Our fundamental hypothesis is that women with higher status occupations face greater opportunity costs than those with less valued jobs and therefore will be more likely to postpone parenthood until later ages than women without such high costs. We test this hypothesis using event history techniques with data from the 1982 Puerto Rico Fertility and Family Planning Assessment, an island-wide survey of women between the ages of 15 and 49. The analysis examines the effects of occupational status on the timing of first births, and finds strong support for the basic hypothesis, especially regarding the post-ponement of teen births. After the teen years, the effects are less pronounced. Overall, it appears that employment opportunities have played an important role in childbearing decisions in Puerto Rico.An earlier version of this paper was presented at the annual meeting of the Population Association of America, Denver, Colorado, 30 April–2 May 1992.     

The age at first birth and timing of the second in Costa Rica and Guatemala

This paper explores the relationship between the age at first birth and the timing of subsequent fertility in Costa Rica and in four rural villages and two urban areas of Guatemala. The results indicate that, for Costa Rica, the age at first birth is significantly related to the tempo of subsequent births, and that this association, at least for the interval to second birth, remains significant when socio-economic factors and marital status at the time of first birth are held constant. While the results suggest that the age at first birth is related to timing of the second in the Guatemalan sample as well, the association is weaker and less consistent than in Costa Rica.     

Marital decision-making and the timing of first birth in rural China before the 1990s

Using a sample of couples drawn from the three provinces of Guangdong, Shandong, and Shaanxi, we investigated whether couples' increasing freedom to choose whom to marry influenced the timing of first birth in rural China during the four decades before the 1990s. The shortening of first-birth intervals in the period is found to be associated with the shift from arranged to free-choice marriages. The association is attributed largely to increased intimacy and coital frequency after marriage together with postponement of age at first marriage.     

Exploring factors influencing adverse birth outcomes in a regional hospital setting in Ghana: A configuration theoretical perspective

BackgroundUnderstanding the complexity of factors that influence adverse childbirth outcomes at health facilities can be enhanced by the theoretical articulation of the interplay between external socio-structural and internal technical dynamics of the birthplace in context. Guided by configuration theory, this study explored the factors that influence adverse birth outcomes at a regional hospital setting in Ghana.MethodsQualitative data were collected from the Upper West regional hospital in Ghana. In-depth interviews were administered to 30 purposively selected respondents comprising 20 postpartum mothers and 10 midwives. The data was electronically audio-recorded, transcribed and analysed using thematic analysis.FindingsThe study revealed three key dimensions of socio-technical configurations shaping adverse birth outcomes within the hospital setting. These are mother-midwife personality and behavioral dynamics including personality clashes and poor communication; birth process dynamics consisting of diverse paradigms of safe birthing process and socio-technical conflicts on caesarean section; and birthplace context, comprising nature of the birthing environment, confidence in the safety of the birthplace and national health policy implementation challenges. These socio-technical interactions result in late reporting at facilities by mothers and delay in care delivery by midwives, contributing to adverse birth outcomes.ConclusionIn line with configuration theory, our study positions the influences of adverse birth outcomes in hospital settings in alignment with a subtle and iterative interplay of socio-technical factors. To comprehensively address adverse birth outcomes in hospital settings, health policymakers and practitioners need to understand and contextualise the socio-technical interactions that shape notable outcomes at specific hospital settings.     

Household demographic factors as life cycle determinants of land use in the Amazon

This paper seeks to broaden the application of demographyto environmental studies by complementing existing macro-level approaches, which feature aggregate populations, with a micro-level approach that highlights household life cycles. I take up the case of small farm households in the Brazilian Amazon to present a theoretical framework that identifies demographic characteristics which dispose families to engage in different forms of land use as household age structures change. Empirical models show that net of theeffects of farmer background, neighborhood context, institutional context, and off-farm incomes, demographic variables indicative of the household life cycle exert significant effects on the prominence of land uses with distinct environmental ramifications. The findings not only reveal micro-level demographic factors which affect Amazon land cover, they yield implications forfuture changes in rainforest landscapes in northern Brazil, and suggest household life cycle models as an avenue for further demographic research on environmental change in Latin America and other contexts.     

Household demographic change and land use/land cover change in the Brazilian Amazon

Demographic interest in population and environment has grown in recent decades. One of the most prominent research areas in this tradition addresses the impact of population on land use and land cover change. Building on this tradition, we examine the effects of household demographic composition on land use and land cover on small farms in two study areas in the Brazilian Amazon. Fixed effects regression models of used area and forested area show few consistent effects of changes in household demography on land use and land cover change. Effects are inconsistent with the household life cycle model that currently dominates the literature on household demographic effects in frontiers. Changes in the number of children and women, particularly young women, have the most significant effects on land use and land cover change. We conclude by arguing that households strategically access cash for investment in agriculture and that specific strategies are determined by economic and institutional context.

甘肃生态环境与农业的可持续发展

作者在分析了农业开发对甘肃生态环境变化的多种影响后指出,生态恶化加大甘肃农业的环境和经济成本,并提出抓住生态建设契机、加快农业结构战略性调整的五项对策。     

How obstetricians and pregnant women decide mode of birth in light of a recent regulation in Brazil

Background

In Brazil, 88% of births among women with private insurance are caesarean sections, even though a caesarean rate above 15% is associated with greater maternal and child morbidity and mortality. Aiming to reduce unnecessary caesarean sections in the private sector, in July 2015 the Brazilian government enacted Resolução Normativa 368, a regulation requiring the use of partograms, pre-natal cards to document pregnancies, and consent forms for elective caesareans, and recommending that obstetricians provide women with an informational letter about birth.

Unilateral collaboration: The practices and understandings of traditional birth attendants in southeastern Nigeria

Background

Despite the promotion of hospital-based maternity care as the safest option, for less developed countries, many women particularly those in the rural areas continue to patronise indigenous midwives or traditional birth attendants. Little is known about traditional birth attendants’ perspectives regarding their pregnancy and birth practices.

Population density,urban centrality,and agricultural intensification in Jordan

This paper explores the relationship between population growth, agricultural production, and urban development. Ongoing debate in the literature regarding the relationship between population and economic development is restricted by the limited availability of time series data and the difficulty of evaluating causality using cross-sectional data. This analysis uses the special case of Jordan with its massive refugee flows to evaluate the influence of a sudden and exogenous change in population in urban areas on the intensification of agricultural production. Spearman Rank Order correlations are calculated from time series data to show that the districts which experienced the most rapid population growth and increases in population density also exhibited the largest increases in agricultural intensity. Cross-sectional analysis in which measures of agricultural intensification were predicted by population density and urbanization factors reveals a significant interaction between density and urban centrality, where centrality is an indicator of the accessibility of urban goods to rural communities. The results suggest that population density has a strongly positive effect on agricultural intensity in areas with few urban goods and services available, whereas the influence of population density on agricultural intensity is substantially reduced in areas with a greater diversity of urban goods and services.This article is based on a paper presented at the 1992 Meeting of the Southern Demographics Association, Charleston, SC, 15–17 October 1992.     

Premarital first births: The influence of the timing of sexual onset versus post-onset risks in the United States

Motivated by long-standing debates between abstinence proponents and sceptics, we examine how socio-economic factors influence premarital first births via: (i) age at first sexual intercourse and (ii) the risk of a premarital first birth following the onset of sexual activity. Factors associated with an earlier age at first intercourse will imply more premarital first births owing to increased exposure to risk, but many of these same factors will also be associated with higher risks of a premarital first birth following onset. Our analyses confirm previous findings that women from disadvantaged backgrounds are younger at first intercourse and have higher premarital first-birth risks than women from more advantaged backgrounds. However, differences in onset timing have a strikingly smaller influence on premarital first-birth probabilities than do differences in post-onset risks. Our findings thus suggest that premarital first births result primarily from differences in post-onset risk behaviours as opposed to differences in onset timing.     

Modelling period fertility: Schooling and intervals following a birth in Eastern Africa

We describe a regression-based approach to the modelling of age-, order-, and duration-specific period fertility, using retrospective survey data. The approach produces results that are free of selection biases and can be used to study differential fertility. It is applied to Demographic and Health Survey data for Ethiopia, Kenya, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe to investigate differential trends in fertility by education. Parity progression fell and the intervals following each birth lengthened between the 1970s and 2000s in all four countries. Fertility fell most among women with secondary education. In contrast to other world regions, postponement of successive births for extended periods accounted for much of the initial drop in fertility in these African countries. However, family size limitation by women with secondary education in Ethiopia and Kenya and longer birth spacing in Zimbabwe also played significant roles. Thus, birth control is being adopted in Eastern Africa in response to diverse changes in fertility preferences.     

Mrs Stone and Dr Smellie: British eighteenth-century birth attendance and long-run levels and trends in maternal mortality discussed in a north European context

This is a book review turned research paper. The aim is to estimate the differences in the maternal mortality rate (MMR) between untrained midwives, expert midwives, and the famous obstetrician Dr Smellie in eighteenth-century Britain. The paper shows that the birth attendance practices of the expert midwife Mrs Stone and of Dr Smellie were very similar, though Stone used her hands whereas Smellie used forceps. Both applied the same invasive techniques to successfully deliver women with similar fatal complications, techniques that untrained midwives and most surgeons of the time could not perform. However, the same procedures, if used for normal births, would have increased the MMR. So, the key to the low MMR of both was that they kept interventions away from the majority of births that were normal. The paper quantifies the likely MMR for a ‘Stone and Smellie style’ birth attendance and concludes that the wider dissemination of their techniques can explain the decline in the British MMR.