The salience of PAN-national hispanic and Asian identities in U.S. marriage markets

In this paper I test whether "Hispanic" and "Asian" identities are salient in the U.S. marriage market. That is, I determine whether the different Asian and Hispanic national groups intermarry often enough to suggest that Asian and Hispanic pan-national identities are important. Analysis of census data from 1980 and 1990 suggests that both Hispanic and Asian pan-national identities are significant forces. Variations in the strength of pan-national Hispanic and Asian associations by region, education, and nativity are discussed.     

Relation of marriage and education to fertility in the U.S.S.R

Abstract One-half of the variation in Soviet fertility as measured by the child-woman ratio is attributable to the proportion of married women in the 20-24 age group. The familar sociological hypothesis of an inverse relation between human fertility and education also is fully substantiated with data for the 36 major ethnic groups in the U.S.S.R. The second and third best predicting variables fall into the two extreme age groups: (a) those 16 to 19 years of age with more than seven years of school completed and (b) those men and women aged 60 and over with the equivalent formal education. Results of this study support the modified hypothesis that complements previously publicized findings. It asserts that variations in fertility attributable to the traditionally religious values can be explained in terms of the age-specific marriage and educational differentials known to have existed in the past and still characteristic of the multi-national society in the Soviet Union.     

The slowing metabolism of marriage: Figures from 1988 U.S. marital status life tables

Marital status life tables for the United States, 1988, show a continuing retreat from marriage. For both sexes, the proportion ever marrying declined and the average age at first marriage rose. The 1988 rates imply that 43% of marriages end in divorce. That represents a slight decline from the 1983 figure, and suggests that divorce has peaked at a level below that estimated in earlier analyses.     

Through a glass, darkly: U.S. marriage discourse and neoliberalism

This article draws together research insights on marriage in the U.S. to argue that over the last 40 years we are able to see an active engagement with neoliberalism in discussions on the subject. Using discourse analysis, I consider how the underlying assumptions that inform the key concepts of autonomy, individualism, responsibility, and universality have been re-semanticized through neoliberal ideology to change the ways that Americans think of marriage (and themselves). In light of these changed assumptions, this article urges a reexamination of the activism and identity politics around marriage as well as further academic research on the topic.     

The age pattern of first-birth rates among U.S. women: The bimodal 1990s

Between 1990 and 2002, the age pattern of Type I first-birth rates (i.e., the hazard of a first birth) among U.S. women was bimodal. This pattern, driven by changing differential fertility patterns among racial and ethnic groups, reached its apex at the mid-1990s and had almost vanished by the decade's end. Research on first-birth timing has tended to focus on Type II first-birth rates and therefore has failed to identify this larger, bimodal pattern. This article presents the benefits of using Type I rates, documents the emergence of the bimodal pattern via two new measures of bimodality, and uses a decomposition analysis to discuss the pattern's causes.     

The fecundability of U.S. women

Abstract In this note I shall define fecundability as the probability that a non-pregnant woman will achieve a recognizable pregnancy during a month of exposure to risk.     

The fecundability of U.S. women

In this note I shall define fecundability as the probability that a non-pregnant woman will achieve a recognizable pregnancy during a month of exposure to risk.     

The formation and stability of ideal family size among young people

A sample of 1,123 sixth, ninth, and twelfth graders in two Southern counties was questioned to ascertain how many children they think is ideal. More than three-fourths of the students in each grade had given thought to an ideal number of children for themselves; fewer had thought about the ideal number for the average American couple. Two and three children were the modal responses; mean ideal sizes were 3.02 for self and 3.16 for the average couple. The range of acceptable fertility behavior, “too few” or “too many” children, is defined by medians of 1.56 and 5.96. Ideal and acceptable family sizes increase slightly in the higher grades. A sex difference in ideals appeared only at grade 12; girls wanted more children. Negroes wanted fewer children than did whites at grade 6, more at grade 12. Size of family of orientation was directly related to ideals at grades 6 and 9, but the relation was curvilinear at grade 12. The direct relation between ideals and socioeconomic status became more pronounced at grade 12. Ideal sizes were larger for Catholics than for other religious groups. The study lends at least minimal support to the notion that early socialization affects ideas about family size.     

Diverging fertility among U.S. women who delay childbearing past age 30

In this paper I examine the evolving association between educational attainment and the timing of births. In the late 1970s, women with four-year college degrees had lower first birth rates before age 30 than women with less education, but rates of first births were similar for the two groups after age 30. From the 1970s to the 1990s, first birth rates decreased before age 30 for all women, but increased after age 30 only for women with four-year college degrees. Parity 2 birth rates also increased for college graduates with a first birth after age 30. These results document widening educational differences in fertility timing between 1975 and 1995, which may reflect period changes at later ages in women's work and family lives.     

Social multipliers in sexual initiation decisions among U.S. high school students

In this article, I use a national sample of high school students to test for several types of social influences on the decision to have sexual intercourse. I find evidence of endogenous social interactions (social multipliers), where the propensity of an individual choosing to have sex varies with the average behavior in his or her school. Additionally, the magnitude of the social multipliers and several other interesting risk factors differ by gender and by race. These findings might help explain the large variation in sexual initiation across schools in the United States. These results also add to the debate over school vouchers and ability grouping because social multipliers imply changes in school-wide rates of sexual behavior with moderate changes in school-body composition. In this way, school vouchers and ability grouping might exacerbate the situation of high rates of teenage pregnancy and out-of-wedlock births in some communities. To show the potential benefits and costs of public policies that cause students to change schools, I present the results of several simulation exercises that predict the school-level changes in rates of sexual initiation following changes in school composition.     

The status of women in the rural U.S.S.R.

Degree of sex equality in rural areas of the U.S.S.R. is assessed with reference to a multi-variable model which specifies demographic, technological, social, and ideological factors associated with sex stratification. Such analysis reveals that the emphasis in the U.S.S.R. on women's participation in production as the key to sex equality ignores other dimensions of sex stratification which are not changed using this tactic. In particular, rural traditions of higher birth rates, more authoritarian families, greater religious emphasis, and male scorn for women have kept the status of rural women even lower than that of their urban counterparts. Additionally, the agrarian techno-economic base and lack of institutional supports for childcare and housework help perpetuate sex stratification. Increasing sex differentiation is probably in store for the Soviet Union, because official pronatalist policies are likely to be facilitated by expanding the service sector, which will further increase the division of labor in the market.     

The Quality of Life Among U.S. States

Categories of Schwartz and Mukherjee are used to select twelve measures with direct or indirect influence on QoL of the 50 States and the D.C. Included are such recognized indicators as health, housing, longevity, a toxic-free environment, crime, etc. From a factor analysis of these data, four factors emerge, identified as Security, Mastery, Harmony and Autonomy. Three partially-independent measures provide verification of the QoL measures: the KIDS COUNT Index, the Southern Regional Council QoL of workers Index and a state-by-state Stress Index. I then test hypotheses relating to QoL: the economic hypothesis that the production of wealth enhances welfare (QoL), a demographic hypotheses concerning migration and urbanization, an hypothesis that religious adherents influence QoL, and psychological hypothesis that a better QoL generates less stress, and others.     

The effect of divorce costs on marriage formation and dissolution

Exploiting the theoretical parallels between the matching of workers to jobs in the labour market and the matching of individuals in the marriage market, we use a search theoretic model of marriage formation and dissolution to examine the effect of divorce costs on both decisions. By introducing learning at both stages of the marital decision process, we show that divorce costs not only affect the probability of divorce but also the probability of marriage. Interestingly, to what extent divorce costs affect the marital status distribution depends on the information regarding the quality of the potential marriage that individuals receive while encountering marital offers. Received: 30 July 1996/Accepted: 7 December 1998     

The U.S. federal effort in developing social indicators

As an introduction to this issue, some historical background of the effort of the U.S. Federal goverment in tracking social trends and making use of social indicators is reviewed. The 1934 study, Recent Social Trends in the United States, and the monographs analyzing demographic trends sponsored by the U.S. Bureau of the Census, are seen as antecedents to the current support accorded what has become a kind of triennial Social Indicators publications. The three subject-matter social indicators volumes of the Federal government — Science Indicators, The Condition of Education and Health: U.S.A. — are reviewed in this volume, and the programs of several other agencies, the Bureau. etc., to develop and communicate social indicators are discussed. The forecast for the future of social indicators includes the development of social accounts, the improvement of models that have criterion social indicators as the dependent variable, and the appreciation of the statistical system to provide the information needed for improved monitorship and understanding. These are seen as joint endeavors of the public and private sectors.     

The ambiguities of U.S. temporary foreign worker policy

Expansion of temporary worker programs has figured prominently in recent proposals to reform United States immigration policy. The Florida sugar cane industry has been using foreign workers from the English-speaking Caribbean since 1943. The 8000 to 9000 workers annually admitted under section H-2 of the 1952 Immigration and Nationality Act to cut cane constitute the largest legal nonimmigrant labor force in the United States. Examination of the Florida H-2 program reveals that existing temporary worker policy is ambiguous, if not contradictory, on the issues of the displacement of domestic workers; the characteristics and value of H-2 workers; their impact on local communities in the United States; and the effects of seasonal labor migration on the migrant and his country. Suggestions for improving policy include strengthening of statutory guidelines and administrative agencies, adoption of a more market-sensitive adverse effect wage rate, making farm labor more attractive to American workers, removing distinctions between foreign and domestic workers, and measures to improve the lot of the migrant and his home society.This article is drawn from a study funded by a grant from the National Institute for Child Health and Human Development (R01-HD-14277-01). The Center for Latin American Studies and the Division of Sponsored Research of the University of Florida provided additional financial support for field work in the Caribbean. Fuller discussions of the results are found in McCoy (1984a), McCoy and Wood (1982) and Wood and McCoy (forthcoming). The author would like to acknowledge the suggestions of Jose Alvarez, Robert Bach, Marian Houston, Steve Sanderson and Charles Wood, his collaborator on the larger project. The comments of David North and especially Edwin Reubens on an earlier version, presented at the 1984 meeting of the American Political Science Association, are also appreciated.     

The impact of U.S. immigration upon internal migration

The potential adverse effect of immigrants on job opportunities for natives continues to influence debate about immigration policy in the United States. Many studies have examined wage and employment outcomes; by contrast, we examine internal migration. We ask whether or not natives are more likely to depart from or less likely to move to metropolitan areas with high concentrations of immigrants. After controlling for other influences on migration, we find that metropolitan areas with higher concentrations of immigrants have only slightly lower rates of inmigration of natives. Such metropolitan areas also exhibit slightly lower rates of out-migration, contrary to expectation. These results suggest that the effect of immigrants on labor market redistribution of natives is modest.Research reported here was supported by a grant from the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation. We would like to thank Kofi Benefo for helpful comments.     

U.S. women at work

Women made up 43% of the U.S. labor force in 1980, up from 29% in 1950, and 52% of all women 16 and over were working or looking for work compared to 34% in 1950. The surge in women's employment is linked to more delayed marriage, divorce, and separation, women's increased education, lower fertility, rapid growth in clerical and service jobs, inflation, and changing attitudes toward "woman's place." Employment has risen fastest among married women, especially married mothers of children under 6, 45% of whom are now in the labor force. Some 44% of employed women now work fulltime the year round, but still average only $6 for every $10 earned by men working that amount. This is partly because most women remain segregated in low paying "women's jobs" with few chances for advancement. Among fulltime workers, women college graduates earn less than male high school dropouts. Working wives were still spending 6 times more time on housework than married men in 1975 and working mothers of preschool children are also hampered by a severe lack of daycare facilities. Children of working women, however, appear to develop normally. Equal employment opportunity and affirmative action measures have improved the climate for working women but not as much as for minorities. The federal income tax and social security systems still discriminate against 2 income families. Woman's position in the U.S. labor force should eventually improve with the inroads women are making in some male-dominated occupations and gains in job experience and seniority among younger women who now tend to stay in the labor force through the years of childbearing and early childrearing, unlike women in the 1950s and 1960s.     

The fertility effect of catastrophe: U.S. hurricane births

Anecdotal evidence has suggested increased fertility rates resulting from catastrophic events in an area. In this paper, we measure this fertility effect using storm advisory data and fertility data for the Atlantic and Gulf-coast counties of the USA. We find that low-severity storm advisories are associated with a positive and significant fertility effect and that high-severity advisories have a significant negative fertility effect. As the type of advisory goes from least severe to most severe, the fertility effect of the specific advisory type decreases monotonically from positive to negative. We also find some other interesting demographic effects.     

Correlates of divorce in the U.S.S.R.

The theoretical rationale of this study is that conditions associated with divorce reside outside the family within a broader social system where the family finds itself located. The absence of major differences in divorce law from one place to another within the Soviet Union makes it possible to explore this hypothesis by examining areal differentials in divorce rates. Crude divorce rates and crude marriage rates for 1960 have been published in Vestnik Statistiki for 109 political-administrative areas in the Soviet Union. Several indicators of modernization are available for the same areas from the 1959 U.S.S.R. Census of Population. About 80 per cent of the variation among areas with respect to the crude divorce rate is accounted for by six variables: the crude marriage rate, the percentage of urban population, and the employee-worker ratio in the labor force, each of which is positively associated with the divorce rate; and the proportion of poorly educated women, the ratio of children to adult males, and the mean household-family size, each of which is negatively associated with the divorce rate.     

Toward a U.S. population policy

The gratifying media results from a concerted national and local publicity effort when Zero Population Growth (ZPG) released its recommendations for a national population policy are reported. Support was received from 10 members of Congress and local leaders. 8 ZPG chapters and the Washington office held press conferences casting the meaning of increased population growth in regional terms. In Cincinnati, ZPG focused on the shortage of landfill space, in San Francisco the water shortage, and in Massachusetts the rapid urbanization of prime farmland. The Congressmen emphasized that the U.S. must have a comprehensive population policy before it can tell other countries they must. Among the ZPG policies recommended are: zero population growth by 2008, increased funding for family planning services and education, special programs for teenagers, greater public education on population dynamics, increased funding for contraceptive research, enforcement of existing immigration laws, comprehensive review of immigration policy, equal rights for women, and more equitable income tax policy.