伊拉克、黎巴嫩、巴勒斯坦政治结构比较研究

美国于2003年发动的伊拉克战争对中东地区政治制度产生了深刻影响,一些中东国家或政权的政治结构和政治力量对比因此出现了重大变化。其中,尤以伊拉克、黎巴嫩、巴勒斯坦的变化最为显著,它们按照政党制、议会制、选举制的模式各自进行了政治制度变革的尝试,并取得了一定进展,但总体尚不成熟。从西方引进的民主制度无疑改变了这些国家或政权的政治生活,有一定的积极作用,但不是治本良药,中东地区的问题需依靠地区自身来解决。     

伊拉克、黎巴嫩、巴勒斯坦政治结构比较研究

美国于2003年发动的伊拉克战争对中东地区政治制度产生了深刻影响,一些中东国家或政权的政治结构和政治力量对比因此出现了重大变化.其中,尤以伊拉克、黎巴嫩、巴勒斯坦的变化最为显著,它们按照政党制、议会制、选举制的模式各自进行了政治制度变革的尝试,并取得了一定进展,但总体尚不成熟.从西方引进的民主制度无疑改变了这些国家或政权的政治生活,有一定的积极作用,但不是治本良药,中东地区的问题需依靠地区自身来解决.     

简析中东现代化进程中的民族宗教因素及其前景

中东地区是东西方文化的交汇之地，冷战结束以后，中东地区的民族独立国家开启了现代化进程，但因错综复杂的民族宗教因素，对其发展产生了一定的不可抗力影响，伴随着国际政治斗争的开展，民族和宗教因素在其中的作用和影响越来越突出。只有通过协调民族关系、加强宗教对话，才能有助于现代化进程的快速发展。     

中东热点问题走向和中国外交政策及其实践

2007年中东地区形势动荡不安，继续成为国际形势变化的焦点。巴以争端、伊拉克问题和伊朗核问题三大热点依然是影响中东局势演变的主轴。由于地区内外因素的变化，热点问题出现了值得注意的新动向。本文探讨了中东地区局势演变的主要动因、最新走向以及中国应对中东热点问题的政策及其实践。     

功能衰微与泛政治化：苏丹政党政治的演变与特点

在苏丹政坛上出现过的政党大致可以分为宗派政党、左翼政党、政治伊斯兰政党、地区政党和政权党五种类型。从政党体系的角度看,苏丹经历过多党制、一党制和政权党主导下的多党制三种政党体系。多党制是殖民时代延续下来的政党体系,体系中的主导政党是宗派政党。后两种政党体系是军队干政后建立的,这一过程涉及政党与军队的“共谋”。政党在军队干政中扮演了积极角色,主动引入军队的力量以打击政治对手或追求自己的政治目的。这在一定程度上是政党之间非制度化竞争的表现。从长期来看,军队的介入削弱了政党在政治生活中的制度化功能。自巴希尔执政以来,政党的社会基础逐渐流失,政治代表与表达功能弱化。与此同时,各类社会组织开始发挥本应由政党行使的代表和表达功能。这些组织通过非制度化方式参与政治,它们的兴起是苏丹社会泛政治化的表现。在泛政治化社会中,政党作为制度化政治参与渠道的作用受到了极大限制。     

中东能源结构性矛盾与中国—中东石油合作

中国—中东石油合作对中国能源安全战略意义重大,中国能源安全本质上是中东地缘政治安全。中东地缘政治具有结构性矛盾、长期化和难以解决等特点,影响到中东石油的安全和稳定供应、国际能源市场供求、国际油价稳定,也意味着中国能源安全将长期受中东和其他地区能源地缘政治的影响。尽管近年来中国—中东能源合作取得长足进步,但双方存在的问题和限制性因素仍显而易见。迄今为止,中国在中东特别是海湾产油国没有获得如苏丹那样的参与当地油气勘探、开发和生产的重大上游油气合作的突破性成果,中国与中东的油气合作仍然任重道远。本文在论述有关问题的基础上,对我国与中东的能源合作提出了一些对策建议。     

欧美中东政策差异及欧盟中东方案探析

从新地缘政治角度看，扩大后的欧盟拥有新的边境和邻国。在大欧洲框架下，中东成为欧盟新的外部环境在欧盟共同外交和安全政策中也具有战略优先权。本文在简述欧美共同战略认知框架基础上，论述欧盟的中东方案，其内容涉及欧盟致力于中东和平与稳定的外交目标、和平进程中的原则与措施等。同时也指出了中东地区的安全困境及其出路。     

中东热点问题走向和中国外交政策及其实践

2007年中东地区形势动荡不安,继续成为国际形势变化的焦点.巴以争端、伊拉克问题和伊朗核问题三大热点依然是影响中东局势演变的主轴,由于地区内外因素的变化,热点问题出现了值得注意的新动向,本文探讨了中东地区局势演变的主要动因,最新走向以及中国应对中东热点问题的政策及其实践.     

美国石油地缘战略与中东地区安全

中东地区在地缘政治上处于连接欧、亚、非三大洲的枢纽地位,迄今为止还没有建立起真正的安全机制,中东国际关系具有极强的传动性、脆弱性和复杂性.长期以来,美国在中东的首要国家安全利益是控制该地区的石油,确保美国对中东市场和中东海空战略航道的控制,以中东地缘战略为依托,实现在全球经济、政治和安全事务等方面的战略主动权.随着美国进一步实施在中东建立政治新格局,中东地区安全与中东石油安全相互依存关系也将不断增强.     

中东变局中的国际话语权竞争及对中国的启示

导致中东变局的根本动因是该地区各国内部政治和社会转型的迫切需求,但国际舆论尤其是占据强势地位的西方话语,对整个局势的发展产生了深刻影响。从当前中国持续崛起,与美国等西方大国在全球政治、经济等领域竞争和摩擦增多的大背景看,西方利用其掌控国际舆论的优势,在中东变局中不断制造话语和设置议题,甚至不惜诋毁中国相关政策,不仅是为引导局势走向,更有维系其国际事务主导地位、遏制中国影响力上升的一面。近年来,中国采取了更为积极进取的中东政策,但话语构建和议题设置能力相对不足,常常不得不在西方设置的话语和议题陷阱中被动应对。本文重点考察中东变局中的国际话语权竞争及对中国的若干启示。     

Electorally Threatening Women? Understanding Gender Quotas in the French Socialist Party

ABSTRACT

Almost three decades ago, the French Socialist Party (PS) adopted a quota for women in the party leadership and for female candidates, and in the ensuing 25 years, the quota was increased and implemented at various times. The history of the PS' s gender-based quota raises the following questions: Why do party leaders adopt gender quotas at one time, increase quotas at another, and implement them in some elections, but not in others? In other words, how can we account for the decisions of political actors? This work seeks to answer these questions by examining the demands and actions of PS feminists. It shows that party women demanded gender quotas and frequently backed up their demands with ideational and electoral arguments that often appealed to male party officials. However, the success of these proposals did not depend on the ability of Socialist women to make convincing arguments; rather it depended on the presence of male party officials who had electoral incentives to support them. This work thus underscores the importance of taking party officials' electoral incentives into consideration when analyzing women's political representation.     

Bandwagon, underdog, and political competition: the uni-dimensional case

This article studies the effects of bandwagon and underdog on the political equilibrium of two-party competition models. We adapt for voter conformism the generalized Wittman?CRoemer model of political competition, which views political competition as the one between parties with factions of the opportunists and the militants that Nash-bargain one another, and consider three special cases of the general model: the Hotelling?CDowns model, the classical Wittman?CRoemer model, and what we call the ideological-party model. We find that the presence of voter conformism significantly affects the nature of political competition, and its effect on political equilibrium is quite different depending on the model one uses. In the Hotelling?CDowns model, political parties put forth an identical policy at the equilibrium, regardless of the type of voter conformism, and this is the only equilibrium. In both the ideological-party and classical Wittman?CRoemer models, parties propose differentiated policies at the equilibrium, and the extent of policy differentiation depends on the degree of voter conformism.     

后穆巴拉克时代的埃及穆斯林兄弟会

穆巴拉克政权倒台后,穆斯林兄弟会成为埃及政坛最具实力的政治力量。它通过组党、组建政治联盟、引导过渡期政治安排等措施,巩固了其在政治格局中的优势地位。由于穆兄会在组织结构、经济实力等方面的优势,加之埃及世俗政治力量的式微,它旗下的自由与正义党有望在议会选举中胜出。迄今为止,穆兄会的政治议程尚不明朗,但政治现实将促使其趋于务实。穆兄会的经济政策与穆巴拉克政权相似,使其难以领导埃及实现经济转型。与此同时,穆兄会的崛起将促进阿拉伯国家伊斯兰党派走向联合,引发阿拉伯世界地缘政治结构的变动。当然,穆兄会上台也为埃及与以色列和美国的关系带来较大的负面影响。     

The Impact of Europeanization upon Party Systems in Slovakia and Romania

Usually the concept of Europeanization refers to processes that download the European Union (the EU) regulations and institutional structures to the domestic level. Moreover, in the last few years the specialized literature has become increasingly preoccupied by the development of national patterns of government through the impact of European policies, processes and institutions. The developments and changes in domestic systems—much more visible in the new member states—suggest that the EU has enormous political and institutional influence. In line with this view, the paper examines the different degrees in which Europeanization has become a transforming political process, particularly in two new post-Communist democracies: Slovakia and Romania. More specifically, the interest is to survey the impact and the way in which Europeanization was incorporated in the rationale of party discourse, identity and policies in the Central-Eastern countries in the pre-accession period.      

Ideological versus Downsian political competition

We analyze a one-dimensional model of spatial political competition with two parties and uncertainty on the distribution of voters' types. We assume that parties are formed by regular members and professional politicians; members care about the policy enacted, while professional politicians, on the contrary, care only about winning the election. We consider two possibilities: that members choose the political platforms and that professional politicians are the ones who choose such platforms. The expected utility for party members is analyzed under these two cases. We find that when professional politicians have no informational advantage, it is on the interest of both parties to let professional politicians choose the platforms. Only in the case in which professional politicians have much better information than the members of the party about voters is it possible that party members obtain a greater expected utility choosing the platforms themselves rather than letting the professional politicians choose. Received: 31 May 1999/Accepted: 1 March 2001     

Issue Conclusion: Sociology,Political Inequality,and Democracy Beyond 2020

The articles in this special issue all contribute to a broader and richer understanding of racial and gender politics. They help reveal how racialized and gendered barriers to political participation reflect and reproduce intersecting racialized and gendered systems of domination. In doing so, they provide insights that can be applied to uncover political processes, cultivate political praxis, and draw our awareness to empowering modes of social and political transformation. Given all this, I propose a renewed sociology of political inequality that focuses on advancing democracy. This agenda includes (1) emphasizing the state of democracy over the state of political party competition, (2) highlighting how democratizing social change happens at various levels, (3) developing and practicing empirically grounded public advocacy, (4) seeing social and political structures are interconnected, and (5) employing sociology in the service of democracy.     

Political compromise and endogenous formation of coalitions

A one-dimensional model of spatial political competition with endogenous party formation is developed. It is proved that at equilibrium there are only two parties. These parties propose alternatives in the extreme positions of the policy space. The adopted policy, however, is a compromise between these two extremes. Received: 28 May 1996 / Accepted: 5 February 1997     

Aggregate uncertainty in the citizen candidate model yields extremist parties

We extend the citizen candidate model of electoral competition with sincere voting to allow for k ≥ 2 states of aggregate uncertainty. We discuss and characterize the equilibrium set in this framework. We provide conditions for the existence of two-party equilibria when k = 2 and show that the policies of the two parties in any such equilibrium are not only divergent but that the parties are extremist: when the political mood is left-wing, the left-wing party wins decisively with a platform that is to the left of the left-wing median voter, while when the political mood is right-wing, the right-wing party wins decisively with a platform that is to the right of the right-wing median voter. We then provide conditions under which such equilibria remain robust for an arbitrary value of k.     

“We are all Hizbullah now”: narrating the Party of God

This essay is the first examination of the literary output of the Lebanese political party and militia Hizbullah. It examines a series of little-known fiction and non-fiction texts including novels, memoirs and autobiographies by Hizbullah fighters, supporters and sympathisers. At the same time, it seeks to place such Hizbullah narratives within the context not only of the Party’s media strategy but of the publishing industry in Lebanon more widely. The essay also argues that Hizbullah narratives consistently explore a cluster of key themes including the Karbala tragedy, Anti-Zionism and, in particular, the “infitah” or “Lebanonisation” of the Party. In conclusion, the essay argues that narratives of Hizbullah reflect the Party’s own gradual evolution over its 30-year existence from a purely sectarian group to a broader resistance movement that attracts support from across the religious and political spectrum.     

A theory of income taxation where politicians focus upon core and swing voters

We construct an equilibrium model of party competition, in which parties are especially concerned with their core and swing voters, concerns which political scientists have focused upon in their attempts to understand party behavior in general elections. Parties compete on an inifinite-dimensional space of possible income-tax policies. A policy is a function that maps pre-fisc income into post-fisc income. Only a fraction of each voter type will vote for each party, perhaps because of issues not modeled here or voter misperceptions of policies. Each party??s policy makers comprise two factions, one concerned with maximizing the welfare of its constituency, or its core, and the other with winning over swing voters. An equilibrium is a pair of parties (endogenously determined), and a pair of policies, one for each party, in which no deviation to another policy will be assented to both its core and swing factions. We characterize the equilibria: they have the property that both parties propose identical treatment of a possibly large interval of middle-income voters, while the ??left?? party gives more to the poor and the ??right?? party more to the rich. An empirical section uses the data of Piketty and Saez on taxation in the US to assess the model??s predictions. We argue that the model is roughly confirmed.