叙利亚库尔德人内战前后的政治发展

叙利亚内战爆发前,库尔德人曾是这个国家饱受欺压和排斥的少数民族。为争取民族权利,叙利亚库尔德人从内战前就开始组织政党开展民族运动。叙利亚内战爆发后,叙利亚库尔德人的政治组织建立了自己的武装。在以美国为首的西方国际反恐联盟的支持下,库尔德人武装通过打击极端组织"伊斯兰国"控制了叙北部库尔德人居住的大片土地,并极力寻求政治自治。在俄罗斯的积极支持下,库尔德政治力量提出了战后在叙利亚建立联邦制的构想。目前,叙利亚库尔德人已经在叙北部建立了库尔德联邦区,并期望内战结束后建立自己的自治区。但叙利亚库尔德人的政治发展进程正受到来自土耳其及国内其他阿拉伯反对派的阻挠和抵制等不利因素的影响。     

委任统治时期叙利亚库尔德民族主义运动研究

一战后,法国确立了对叙利亚的委任统治。委任统治期间,在法国当局分而治之的民族政策影响下,叙利亚境内库尔德民族主义运动发展迅速。叙利亚库尔德人不但组建了政治实体霍伊布联盟,积极推进库尔德文化复兴运动以凝聚民族共同体意识,而且与基督教名人联合共同发起了以贾兹拉为中心的自治运动。叙利亚库尔德民族主义运动的兴起与战后中东地缘政治格局变动、法国的民族分治政策、土耳其库尔德民族主义、亚美尼亚民族主义等因素都密切相关。整个委任统治时期,尽管叙利亚库尔德民族主义运动并没有实现民族自治的最终诉求,但是这场运动本身培育了叙利亚库尔德人的民族共同体意识,对战后中东地缘政治局势产生了复杂影响,成为现代叙利亚库尔德问题的重要历史根源。     

中东社会转型与库尔德问题

在"阿拉伯之春"政治风潮带来的中东社会转型过程中,中东地区库尔德人也以争取民族权利和自治为目标开展了所谓"库尔德之春"的民族运动。由于历史和现实的原因,中东地区伊拉克、土耳其、伊朗、叙利亚等国家库尔德人的政治和社会地位虽然存在明显差别,但他们都希望能够借助当前的中东社会转型,为自己赢得更加充分的公民地位、少数民族权利和高度自治。然而,无论是他们当前面临的"伊斯兰国"组织威胁,还是他们与所在国家主体民族之间的矛盾,以及他们所在国家政府对库尔德民族权利要求不同程度的压制,都表明库尔德人争取民族权利的民族运动仍将经历一个漫长的过程。     

叙利亚库尔德武装的性质及其影响探析

叙利亚库尔德武装以"叙利亚民主力量"的身份,积极反抗"伊斯兰国"组织的暴行,实际上其构成仍然是以库尔德人为主体的单一民族力量,它在国内与叙利亚反对派、叙利亚政府都保持距离,在国际上受到美俄等域外大国的财政援助和军事支持。虽然叙利亚库尔德武装在反恐战争中取得了丰硕战果,然而,国际社会的同情并不能改变叙利亚库尔德武装本身既抑制了"伊斯兰国"组织的扩张,又破坏了中东地区现有力量平衡的双重性质。更严重的是,叙利亚库尔德武装甚至会引发地区其他国家库尔德民族的连锁反应,其所奉行的"库尔德民族主义"的极端化趋势渐显,有可能成为中东地区恐怖主义的新源头。     

反恐抑或自治：叙利亚库尔德人反恐的双重性研究

2013年至2019年是极端组织“伊斯兰国”在叙利亚和伊拉克肆虐的黑暗时期。民主联盟党领导的叙利亚库尔德武装与美军结成反恐联盟,在击败极端组织“伊斯兰国”斗争中发挥了十分重要的作用,是美军依赖的最主要地面战斗力量。叙库尔德人积极参与反恐,一方面是由于自身受到了切实恐怖威胁,另一方面是希望借此争取美国支持,谋求国际合法性,以推动自治进程。然而,库尔德人基于反恐之上的自治存在内生缺陷。美国与库尔德人的反恐联盟具有脆弱且实用主义色彩浓厚等特点,双方属于临时交易性质的战术盟友关系。库尔德人以反恐为工具,而美国同样将库尔德人作为反恐工具,无意支持库尔德人自治或独立。这一工具性决定了库尔德人自治的脆弱性,致使库尔德人面临不确定的未来。叙库尔德问题的解决必须在叙利亚全国对话框架内进行,而借助外部力量强加解决的方案注定会失败。     

土耳其周边外交中西亚土库曼人的角色与影响

受族裔认同、地缘政治和库尔德问题等因素的复合驱动,近十余年来土耳其与西亚土库曼人经历了相互“重新发现”和认同增强的过程。土耳其试图将土库曼人扶植为本国的地区代理人,服务于其周边外交目标的实现。在叙利亚,土库曼人成为土耳其干涉叙内政、打击库尔德人和推行地区干涉政策的重要工具;在伊拉克,土耳其利用土库曼人制衡库尔德地区的独立野心,保持土在伊北部的影响力。然而,受到叙伊国内局势、土库曼人族群特征、土与叙伊两国中央政府及库尔德人之间复杂关系的影响,土耳其与两国土库曼人的互动方式及效果存在明显差异。叙利亚土库曼人的代理人色彩更浓厚,伊拉克土库曼人的伙伴角色则较为模糊和尴尬。土耳其与西亚土库曼人的密切互动乃至捆绑进一步撕裂了土周边国家内部的族群关系,加剧了其国内政治与治理格局的碎片化和脆弱性。     

21世纪的库尔德问题

21世纪的库尔德问题是,库尔德人内部不团结,居住国伊拉克、叙利亚、土耳其与伊朗等国的库尔德人对自己问题难以达成共识,以美国为首的西方国家为了各自利益对库尔德问题 继续横加干涉,使库尔德问题越发复杂化等,库尔德问题的解决还有很长的路要走,这也许是21世纪中东地区乃至世界的症结之一.     

“外围战略”视域下的以色列库尔德政策

为突破阿拉伯国家的围困和孤立,以色列建国后制定并实施了"外围战略",并将其与库尔德人的关系视为"外围战略"的重要组成部分。以色列对伊拉克、土耳其、叙利亚和伊朗四国的库尔德人采取的政策各有差异,重点且公开支持伊拉克库尔德人,对其他三国库尔德人则采取较为谨慎的政策。在整体上,以色列库尔德政策呈现出利益化、差异化、隐秘化和动态化的特点。作为"外围战略"的具体表现,以色列与库尔德人保持的长期战略互动在一定程度上减少了其周边安全威胁,并获得了一定的政治和经济利益。尽管库尔德问题复杂多变,但未来以色列仍会继续秉持国家利益至上的原则,深化发展"外围战略"的理念与布局,灵活调整其库尔德政策。     

21世纪的库尔德问题

21世纪的库尔德问题是，库尔德人内部不团结，居住国伊拉克、叙利亚、土耳其与伊朗等国的库尔德人对自己问题难以达成共识，以美国为首的西方国家为了各自利益对库尔德问题继续横加干涉，使库尔德问题越发复杂化等，库尔德问题的解决还有很长的路要走，这也许是21世纪中东地区乃至世界的症结之一。     

叙利亚库尔德人罗贾瓦自治的理论与实践

2011年叙利亚内战爆发后,叙利亚库尔德人利用内战和反恐战争的机遇,控制了叙利亚北部和东北部地区的大片土地,建立了罗贾瓦自治实体。罗贾瓦自治的理论源于奥贾兰的“民主邦联主义”。它强调以直接民主、性别平等和永续发展为原则,主张政治上实行直接选举,经济上实施自救计划和建立“民主—生态”社会。根据这一理论,罗贾瓦自治区建立后实行了民主选举,成立了旨在代表各群体利益的权力机构和社会组织,并在积极维持经济秩序的同时探索出合作社发展道路。然而,罗贾瓦自治始终面临着挑战：从外部看,它不仅受到土耳其的军事威胁,而且由于巴沙尔政府的坚决反对,罗贾瓦无法获得合法的自治地位,只能维持事实上的自治;从内部看,由于利益分配不均与政治分歧严重,库尔德人民保卫军与库尔德全国委员会难以达成和解,阻碍了罗贾瓦自治的发展进程并令其前途难卜。     

伊拉克战后库尔德人分离主义倾向的变化与发展

建立自己的独立国家是伊拉克库尔德人多年来的政治目标。伊拉克战争结束后,面对周边国家对于库尔德分离倾向的压力和反对,再加上库尔德地区内部存在各种问题,库尔德领导人在伊战后政治重建中采取了务实的态度。为争取更大程度的区域自治,他们在宪法草案中确定了伊拉克国家的联邦主义性质。并利用和美国政府的密切关系,在伊过渡政府中占据了大量重要职位。但这并不意味着库尔德人彻底放弃了分离主义目标。从目前来看,库尔德人对分离主义的取舍将和伊战后重建的成败紧密联系在一起。如果伊战后重建最终失败并爆发内战,库尔德人依然会寻求自己的独立道路。     

Pensioners' political parties in Israel

Involvement and participation of older persons in politics and political systems reflect the extent to which they are integrated into their society. During the last two decades, political parties of pensioners have emerged in a number of countries, including Israel, and have run candidates in national elections. If only 10% of those aged 65 and older had voted for pensioners' parties in Israel, they would have qualified for two "pensioners" seats in the Knesset (Israel's parliament). However, they suffered complete defeat, as has been the case in most other countries. This article first describes the phenomenon of pensioners' political parties in Israel, examines the circumstances around their emergence, and presents their goals. Second, it identifies and analyzes the causes for their political defeat. Third, it discusses alternatives to political parties to promote the interests of the older population. Finally, implications for further research are raised.     

The Coming Failure of Mission-Oriented Social Research

Abstract

An effort has been made to examine systematically the effects of various types of status inconsistencies and perceived stress on support for radical political parties within various class and age categories in order to clarify ambiguities in previous research. In general, two broad hypotheses have been suggested: that stressful life situations are more likely to lead to radical support among young people since they are less committed to the political system and traditional political parties and are more open to change; and that stressful life situations are more likely to lead to radical political support among older people since they have less hope for their situation to improve. To test these hypotheses, we examine support for the separatist Parti Quebecois using a 1970 survey with 1587 francophone respondents from the province of Quebec. Findings from multiple regression suggest the following: political alienation is more likely to PQ lead to support among those under 35; status inconsistency is more likely to lead to PQ support among those in mid-life (36–59); and worry about financial future is the strongest predictor of support among those over 60. The findings confirm expectations about age differences in the effects of status concerns on radical political support.     

Transnational political practices and the receiving state: Turks and Kurds in Germany and the Netherlands

This article examines how the social and political contexts in receiving countries affect the transnational political practices of migrants and refugees, such as their mobilization around political events in their homeland. The case study explores the political participation of Turks and Kurds in Germany and the Netherlands in its full complexity, that is in both the immigration country and in homeland politics. The findings suggest that transnational political practices should not be reduced to a function of the political opportunity structures of particular receiving countries for two main reasons: (a) more inclusive political structures, which provide for more participation and co‐operation on immigrant political issues, may at the same time, and for that very reason, serve to exclude dialogue on homeland politics; (b) homeland political movements may draw on a different range of resources than their immigrant political counterparts, including those outside the local political institutional context.     

Turkey's Education Policies towards Syrian Refugees: A Macro‐level Analysis

This study discusses the transformation of Turkey's education policies towards Syrian refugees in three major stages. It argues that education policies in these different stages reflect the general perception of and political vision for Syrian refugees by the Turkish state, and that they are also instruments through which this political vision is materialized and declared. The remarkable evolution of Turkey's education policies towards Syrian refugees, from early policies that aimed at temporary accommodation to later policies that have aimed at full integration, needs to be understood in this framework of a changing vision in addition to the security concerns. Lastly, the article argues that, while the current strategy of complete integration of Syrians into formal education system is certainly positive, it also brings about a number of significant challenges related to the political and legal context in Turkey that will have to be handled in its realization.     

The Disconnection In Online Politics: the youth political web sphere and US election sites, 2002-2004

In recent years, candidates and other political actors have dramatically increased their presence and activities online. Although the notion of these activities reaching beyond a limited set of early-adopters is relatively new, younger citizens have long been at the forefront of new developments on the web and continue to make up a substantial proportion of those seeking political information online. Given longstanding concern over levels of civic and political engagement among young people, questions concerning what young people seeking information and opportunities for political involvement online might find there are particularly relevant. In particular, we explore political websites that are directly targeted at younger voters (e.g. Rock the Vote and similar sites), websites produced by candidates and political parties, and possible linkages between these two web spheres. Based on content and hyperlink analyses spanning the 2002 and 2004 US election cycles, we find a complex evolution of the online political information environment offered to youth. Although the youth engagement web sphere experienced dramatic growth during this time period, our data also identify a reluctance of many mainstream political actors to speak directly to young people through the web, and a surprising underdevelopment of linkages between youth politics websites and the wider web of political information online. We conclude by considering the implications of these patterns for future research on the role of new media in processes of political communication and engagement.     

The Politics of Expanding Healthcare Access to the Poor and Informal Sectors

How do the politics of agenda setting and policy adoption operate in the arena of healthcare reform in the industrializing world? Literature on the twenty‐first‐century developmental state emphasizes the role of democratic competition and civil society in causing political parties to take up new agendas, while power resources theory stresses the role of left‐wing political parties and labor unions in policy adoption. Yet, core tenets of these theories have not been considered extensively in light of dynamics in the industrializing world. This article examines the politics of policy adoption in countries that have recently aimed to provide healthcare access and financial protection to the poor and people in the informal sector in Mexico and Turkey. In line with literature on the twenty‐first‐century developmental state, we find democratic competition to play an important role in causing political parties to take up new agendas. However, examination of the cases illuminates surprising dynamics that challenge important elements of sociological theory: right‐leaning political parties played important roles in adoption, while labor unions and left‐wing parties oppose reform in the cases. Public health‐minded physicians leading change teams played important roles in agenda setting and leading the process of implementation.     

Determinants of Attitudes towards Immigration: Testing the Influence of Interculturalism,Group Threat Theory and National Contexts in Time of Crisis

Since 2008 a profound crisis, not only economic but also political, has been affecting the EU. The Eurobarometers carried out by the European Commision show an increased percentage of people who see their country as not having benefitted from being an EU member. In addition, the presence of extreme‐right parties has grown recently in several democracies. These parties adopt not only an anti‐European but also an anti‐immigrant stance. It is precisely the growing strength and visibility of this link between anti‐Europeanism and anti‐immigration in ideological positions that has prompted our research. Using data from the Eurobarometer 71.3 (2009) for eleven countries, we confirm a correlation between intercultural dialogue – measured using a proxy variable: European identification – and tolerance. Results also corroborate group threat theory. However, the best model takes into account national contexts. These findings show the relevance of studying national historical and cultural traditions to understand how prejudices develop.     

Consuming Projects in Uncertain Times: Making Selves in the Galilee1

Abstract Reception and identification processes, crucial to understand situations of political conflict, have been studied in relation to particular events, rituals, or media. This article proposes a different approach. It explores how ordinary people, through projects of their own which exhibit particular forms of intentional cultural production and consumption, manifest historically situated notions of selves. I use the idea of “projects” to understand the interconnections between global consumer culture, identity, and nationalism as they are manifested in the everyday lives of Palestinian citizens of Israel. To exemplify these interconnections, I focus on two significant, creative projects through which Palestinian inhabitants of the Western Galilee shape and manifest selves in history. Though these projects appear very different on the surface, they are used to address the same central question – that is, to understand how senses of self in history and attending identities are materially and discursively constituted by members of a national minority in the ever-present context of political conflict. They show that people are not passive consumers of homogenizing rituals and discourse and reveal how, through a bricolage of objects and ideas, people inscribe intentions, meanings, ways of thinking, and self-narration in places and histories.     

Nichts genaues weiss man nicht!?

What do voters really know about party platforms and how do they perceive the contents? Are there any relationships between party election platforms and electoral behavior? Despite of much research on parties, there are hardly any answers to these questions. If political parties devise programmes in order to influence political attitudes or electoral behavior, it will be necessary that these programmes are read by people. But it seems to be unclear if and how people do so. This article shows clearly that voters don’t know much about party manifestoes. Still, programmes are more important for voters than many people believe. Programmes are also an important factor for electoral behavior. But there is still a lack of data to get evident results.