基于非系统风险被定价的资本资产定价模型

从假定投资者没有持有市场投资组合出发,建立不完美市场投资组合下的资本资产定价模型.这一模型从理论上证明,在均衡时,不仅系统风险被定价,没有被分散的非系统风险也被定价.这一模型为非系统风险被定价提供了直接的证据.     

多元化经营与企业股价崩盘风险北大核心CSSCI

以2007~2017年上市公司为样本,实证考察了多元化与企业股价崩盘风险之间的关系。研究发现:多元化尽管有助于分散经营风险,但却会加剧股价崩盘风险,对于实施非相关多元化战略的企业尤其如此;作用机制的检验结果表明,信息不透明度和税收规避在多元化推高股价崩盘风险方面起到了部分中介作用。进一步地,国有企业两者正向关系更为显著;审计质量低、机构投资者持股比例较高时,企业多元化经营与股价崩盘风险之间的正向关系更显著;市场化程度较低、处于产业政策支持行业或者经济政策不确定性较低时,企业多元化经营更容易加剧股价崩盘风险。     

论企业年金投资风险的控制

企业年金在投资运营过程中会面临各种风险,这些投资风险根据来源性质可分系统风险和非系统风险。本文详细探讨了市场风险、利率风险、政策风险等系统风险的控制技术,指出可以通过加强管理和组合投资来规避非系统性风险。事实上,加强风险控制不仅是综合管理的需要,也有利于对投资绩效进行准确评估。     

多元化经营的利弊

<正> 当前,企业推行的多元化经营有其诱因,充满着风险和挑战,做好对多元化经营的利弊转化,就能更好地发挥它的优势,为企业创造较好的经济效益。 一、多元化经营的正面效应 1.分散风险。多元化经营将单一经营方式所承担的所有风险分散到各个风险单位,企业不仅拓宽了经营领域,减少了每一风     

商业银行集团客户的风险管理

随着市场经济的发展,企业经营逐步向多元化、集团化格局转变。这种发展趋势一方面使企业能够从多渠道获取利润,分散单一行业的周期性风险,另一方面也带来了由于非专注化经营形成的经营风险和多方面资金占压形成的资金链风险。2008年以来,全球金融危机不断蔓延,西方主要经济体发展明显放缓,部分新兴市场国家的经济内外交困,全球经济进入下行通道。     

企业财务风险传导的关键要素分析

伴随着企业生产经营的多元化、复杂化以及企业金融活动的不断创新,企业财务环境及运行形式正发生着巨大的变化,企业财务风险也日益多样化,并严重威胁着企业的生存和发展.如何对企业财务风险进行防范,是风险管理研究的重要内容.笔者预期通过探析财务风险在企业内部的动态传导规律,有效地控制和管理企业财务风险.     

基于归核化的企业多元化战略研究

多元化战略经营是企业发展到一定阶段进行扩张规模、规避风险的战略选择。20世纪80年代以来,企业多元化经营遇到了许多阻碍,许多多元化企业开始缩减其规模,重新回归主业,实施归核化经营。企业多元化经营必须基于核心能力才能取得成功。本文从目前企业战略发展的研究出发,提出了在企业初始阶段实施单一多元化战略的困难和问题,而基于归核化的企业多元化经营战略是企业的正确选择,以及企业为降低多元化经营风险可以采取的措施。     

企业多元化经营下财务风险的分析

在全球化经济背景和现代市场经济条件下,企业会通过改变自身的经营战略,以增强市场竞争力。多元化经营是寻求未来发展的一条关键途径,也存在一定的财务风险。本文通过分析多元化经营下财务风险的内容及其动因,同时提出了一些对策和建议,对人们了解多元化经营下财务风险的控制问题具有一定的指导意义。     

定向增发企业多元化扩张对“SEO业绩之谜”的影响研究

以2007~2019年实施定向增发的A股上市公司为研究样本,从多元化经营视角分析定向增发企业业绩下滑的原因。研究发现,定向增发后,企业多元化经营程度显著加深,且这一趋势在民营企业中表现更明显;定向增发企业在融资后的多元化经营行为会显著提高企业财务风险,并导致其全要素生产率下降。进一步研究还发现,大股东机会主义动机和管理层过度自信,是企业加深多元化经营的主要原因;定向增发企业通过多元化经营,更倾向于涉入非相关行业和产业政策所扶持的行业。     

企业多元化用工风险及其规避

随着市场经济发展,企业的经营模式不断创新,用工模式也随之变化,形成多元化用工格局。本文从多元化用工形式展开研究,首先界定多元化用工概念并对其进行详细分类,接着阐述多元化用工产生的动因,然后以企业视角分析多元化用工产生的风险并对这些风险提出建议。     

论人力资本投资风险与风险防范

根据人力资本的自然属性和社会属性的特点，从政府、企业和个人三个不同层面剖析了人力资本投资的风险原因，最后分别从以上3个层面提出了防范措施，以供政府、企业和个人进行政策决策和人力资本投资选择时借鉴和参考。     

基于风险分解的股指期货套期保值策略研究

本文构建了基于方差分解的股指期货套期保值模型,并求解了相应的最优套期保值比率。将总体风险分解为系统风险与非系统风险,根据套保目标,通过在两类风险之间分配不同的权重可以提高组合整体表现。研究表明,方差分解套期保值模型更能有效地反映投资者对于风险类别的不同偏好,克服了H-D模型及MV模型的不足,具有良好的概括能力且更有利于套保目标的实现。     

On the Meaning and Use of the Risk Appetite Concept

The risk appetite concept has been given considerable attention recently in enterprise risk management contexts. A number of definitions exist, most with a link to risk acceptability, but also values and goals. The usefulness of the concept is, however, disputed; some authors argue that we can in fact do better without it. In this article, we provide a thorough discussion of what the risk appetite concept is actually trying to express and how it best can be used in the relevant decision making. The main purposes of the article are (i) to argue that the risk appetite concept, suitably interpreted, has a role to play in risk management, (ii) to show that the risk appetite concept is well supported by some types of risk perspectives and not by others, and (iii) to show how the risk appetite concept is linked to other related concepts, such as risk seeking and risk acceptability. The risk perspectives studied range from expected value and probability based definitions of risk to views on risk, that are founded on uncertainties.     

具有联盟优先关系的模糊合作博弈的目标规划求解模型

用合作博弈研究实际管理问题中的分配方案时，常常存在一些不重要联盟或无效联盟，这些联盟影响公平合理的分配方案。因此，联盟的重要程度成为求解合作博弈必不可少的因素。本文考虑了联盟的重要性和局中人参与联盟的不确定性，研究了具有优先关系的模糊联盟合作博弈(简称为模糊合作博弈)。首先，借助于目标规划模型的优先因子可以表征联盟重要程度的思想，通过构建多优先级目标规划模型，得到模糊合作博弈新的解。其次，证明了构建的多优先级目标规划模型的解和模糊合作博弈的核心之间具有重要对应关系。最后，通过数值实例和比较分析，说明本文提出的多优先级目标规划模型求解模糊合作博弈问题的合理性和有效性。研究表明：(1)本文提出的多优先级目标规划模型考虑不同联盟重要程度，得到的解符合“多劳多得”原则，能够更公平合理解决实际管理中的分配问题。(2)本文的目标规划模型同时适用于求解存在联盟特征函数值缺失的合作博弈。与已有合作博弈的解进行比较分析，该模型无需估算无效联盟的特征函数缺失数据得到的分配值更为准确。从而，说明本文给出的目标规划求解模糊合作博弈解的模型，更符合许多管理学问题的实际情况。(3)通过多优先级目标规划模型最优解是否存在可判断模糊合作博弈的核心存在情况，若核心存在则该模型通过目标规划软件包可得到核心内的一个解，这样也得到了一个判断合作博弈核心是否存在的标准。(4)目标规划模型可弥补已有合作博弈解的一些不足，如核心可能为空集，Shapley值和最小二乘预核仁可能不满足个体合理性等。本文构建的多优先级目标规划模型不仅能求解联盟具有优先关系的模糊合作博弈，而且能够求解一般合作博弈的解，该目标规划模型作为合作博弈一种新的求解方法，能更有效地解决实际管理中的分配问题，具有更加广泛的应用价值。     

A Risk-sharing Approach to Transfer Pricing and Incentive Compensation Problems under Exchange Rate Uncertainty*

This study examines the transfer pricing and incentive compensation problems in a multinational enterprise facing currency risk. It is shown that, in the presence of diverse risk preferences among managers, the Hirshleifer (1956) transfer pricing rule results in inefficient resource allocation decisions by division managers. Following the approach developed by Kanodia (1979), two transfer pricing and compensation systems are proposed. The proposed systems enable central management to achieve efficient resource allocation and partial or global risk sharing. It is also argued that the proposed plans can be implemented in conjunction with existing transfer pricing systems that primarily serve tax and tariff concerns.     

On the Need for Rethinking Current Practice that Highlights Goal Achievement Risk in an Enterprise Context

This article addresses the issue of how performance and risk management can complement each other in order to enhance the management of an enterprise. Often, we see that risk management focuses on goal achievements and not the enterprise risk related to its activities in the value chain. The statement “no goal, no risk” is a common misconception. The main aim of the article is to present a normative model for describing the links between performance and risk, and to use this model to give recommendations on how to best structure and plan the management of an enterprise in situations involving risk and uncertainties. The model, which has several novel features, is based on the interaction between different types of risk management (enterprise risk management, task risk management, and personal risk management) and a structure where the enterprise risk management overrules both the task and personal risk management. To illustrate the model we use the metaphor of a ship, where the ship is loaded with cash‐generating activities and has a direction over time determined by the overall strategic objectives. Compared to the current enterprise risk management practice, the model and related analysis are founded on a new perspective on risk, highlighting knowledge and uncertainties beyond probabilities.     

论控股公司的风险与回报率

在完备的资本市场中,控股公司并不能给股东带来更多的好处,因此它并没有存在的依据;在非完备的资本市场中,控股公司通过多样化投资,能够在同等风险水平上增加小投资者的财富或者在相同回报率的水平上降低小投资者的投资风险。控股公司多层控股使整个控股公司体系的财务杠杆比率很高,因此控股公司实质上采取了高财务风险、高回报率的融资政策。     

A Value Measure for Public‐Sector Enterprise Risk Management: A TSA Case Study

This article presents a public value measure that can be used to aid executives in the public sector to better assess policy decisions and maximize value to the American people. Using Transportation Security Administration (TSA) programs as an example, we first identify the basic components of public value. We then propose a public value account to quantify the outcomes of various risk scenarios, and we determine the certain equivalent of several important TSA programs. We illustrate how this proposed measure can quantify the effects of two main challenges that government organizations face when conducting enterprise risk management: (1) short‐term versus long‐term incentives and (2) avoiding potential negative consequences even if they occur with low probability. Finally, we illustrate how this measure enables the use of various tools from decision analysis to be applied in government settings, such as stochastic dominance arguments and certain equivalent calculations. Regarding the TSA case study, our analysis demonstrates the value of continued expansion of the TSA trusted traveler initiative and increasing the background vetting for passengers who are afforded expedited security screening.     

Managing Enterprise Risks of Technological Systems: An Exploratory Empirical Analysis of Vulnerability Characteristics as Drivers of Exploit Publication*

Enterprises experience opportunistic exploits targeted at vulnerable technology. Vulnerabilities in software‐based applications, service systems, enterprise platforms, and supply chains are discovered and disclosed on an alarmingly regular basis. A necessary enterprise risk management task concerns identifying and patching vulnerabilities. Yet it is a costly affair to develop and deploy patches to alleviate risk and prevent damage from exploit attacks. Given the limited resources available, technology producers and users must identify priorities for such tasks. When not overlooked, vulnerability‐patching tasks often are prioritized based on vulnerability disclosure dates, thus vulnerabilities disclosed earlier usually have patches developed and deployed earlier. We suggest priorities also should focus on time‐dependent likelihoods of exploits getting published. We analyze data on software exploits to identify factors associated with the duration between a vulnerability discovery date and the date when an exploit is publicly available, a time window for patching before exploit attack levels may escalate. Actively prioritizing vulnerability patching based on likelihoods of exploit publication may help lessen losses due to exploit attacks. Technology managers might apply the insights to better estimate relative risk levels, and better prioritize protection efforts toward vulnerabilities having higher risk of earlier exploitation.     

基于BP网络的人力资源管理风险预警模型

基于现有研究成果的局限性,本文将BP网络引入企业的人力资源管理风险预警的研究之中.首先从BP网络本身的特点和我国企业薄弱的基础管理水平两个方面,阐述了将BP网络引入企业人力资源管理风险预警研究的可行性;然后依据对人力资源管理风险内涵的界定、国内外专家的实证研究结果和意见等,将企业人力资源管理风险进行了分类;在此基础上,建立了企业人力资源管理风险预警指标体系,构建了基于BP网络的企业人力资源管理风险预警模型,并对模型进行了训练和测试;最后将其运用到某企业人力资源管理风险预警之中,指出其在判断企业人力资源管理风险状况、分析企业人力资源管理风险的主要来源、提出企业规避人力资源管理风险的对策方面有较大的应用价值.