建国以来新疆人口的省际迁移状况分析

新疆人口总数中。省际迁移人口占有重要的地位。文章分析了建国以来新疆人口迁移特点,结果表明：新疆人口迁移活动主要表征为国家有计划的迁移和人口自发迁移。迁移过程具明显的时间阶段性;迁入人口以文化素质较低的农村男性青壮年为主：人口迁入地区主要为开发程度高、经济发展快、交通便利的地区;人口迁入主因是国家政策及大量土地资源的吸引．人口迁出主因是区域经济发展不平衡、产业结构调整,祖籍亲缘关系、户籍管制的放松;省际人口迁移促进了新疆的经济发展以及新疆与其他省区的交流,但同时也带来了一些不刺影响。     

山东省迁往东北的移民“回流”问题探析

在全国改革开放的进程中,各省市区的改革开放的时间、范围、程度不同以及其他原因,省际间的人口迁移发展也不平衡,出现了一种逆向迁移。这种逆向迁移大体上可分为两类：一类是一般类,即由过去的净迁入地区变为净迁出地区,或由净迁出地区变为净迁入地区。从省际人口迁移的系统统计资料看,属于前种情况的有黑龙江、吉林、新疆、青海等省区。这种逆转的典型是黑龙江省,在过去近百年的时期里,一直是我国的主要移民迁入省。解放后前30年累计净迁入700多万人,而近10年来则变为净迁出省份。1990年人口普查表明,1985年～1990年共迁出人口…     

都市人口的定义问题

1、在进行推算之前,有必要先检查一下各种定义,因为“都市”和“农村”的人口资料是根据这些定义来确定的。例如,按某些定义,“都市”地区是处于一定的地理界线之内的,因而“都市”人口只随出生、死亡和迁移而增加。但根据另外一些定义,“都市”地区的地理范围可以不断扩大,因而“都市”人口除因出生、死亡和迁移而增加外,还可由于地区的重新划分而扩大。     

含迁移要素的区域人口随机预测方法及其应用--以浙江省宁波市为例

以宁波市为例,基于宁波市“六普”与“五普”数据,首先利用年龄别死亡率对同批次队列人口进行年龄移算,即人口留存分析,对比2010年的实际人口数和无迁移模式下的封闭人口数之差,进一步测算两次普查期间分性别、年龄别人口的净迁移量和净迁移率。然后,将迁移率与出生率和死亡率整合,构建多要素随机人口预测模型,预测宁波市未来人口变化趋势,并评估迁移、死亡、出生三要素对人口变动的弹性影响效果。结果表明：人口净迁入对宁波市人口总量变化影响最大,而低死亡率和低出生率是未来50年加剧宁波市人口老龄化的主要原因。未来50年内,劳动力人口净迁入对降低宁波市人口老年负担系数的作用有限。鼓励夫妇生育二孩,优化人才引进与落户机制,尽快建立起应对高龄社会的公共服务体系尤其是长期照护体系,应是宁波市人口政策改革的当务之急。     

中国省际人口流动与 人力资本流动差异性分析

人力资本流动与人口流动相关却不相同,本文采用2010-2016年全国流动人口动态监测数据,从流动方向和流动强度两方面对我国省际人口流动引致的人力资本流动现象加以研究。结果表明从流动方向分析,各省人口净流动方向基本呈现时间一致性并且流入流出区域具有稳定性。在调查期间人口净流出省份为16个,人口净流入省份为15个,没有明显变化。人力资本净流向与人口净流向完全一致,但省际人口净流向与高级人力资本净流向并不完全一致,山西、广西、重庆等省市的高级人力资本净流向始终与总人力资本净流向相反。本文采用流出流入比率和迁移选择中心两种指标测算人力资本流动强度,结果基本一致。人力资本流动中心与人口流动中心分布均较为固定。2010年人力资本流动强度最大的省份在2016年的流动强度也更强,流动强度在省际呈现惯性和马太效应。人力资本流入最强地区包括北京、天津、上海三个直辖市,人力资本流出最强省份始终包括安徽、四川、河南等省份。以人力资本流出弹性衡量人力资本流出强度与人口流出强度的相对强弱,东部地区、东北地区省份人力资本的流出强度始终大于人口流出强度,西部地区省份差异较大。考虑各省近五年经济增长状况,人口流动或者人力资本流动对经济增长的影响是非线性的。     

建国以来东北地区人口迁移与区域经济发展分析

东北地区是我国在建国初期重点建设的重工业基地,在东北地区的建设和开发过程中,大量外来人口迁入使东北地区人口增长速度一直高于全国平均水平。80年代经济体制改革以后,东北地区从人口净迁入转变为净迁出地区,特别是90年代中期以来,东北老工业基地显现出衰落的迹象,人口净迁出的速度加快,东北地区内部人口从北向南迁移的趋势增强,人口分布与区域经济分布的一致性提高。     

1953年以来东北三省人口跨省迁移研究——基于普查存活比法

东北三省人口负增长近年来受到广泛关注,人口外流被认为是东北人口大幅减少的主要因素,但现有研究对东北人口跨省迁移规模的估计方法相对有限,关于迁移流动对东北人口规模和结构影响的认识尚不清晰。本文使用1953年以来的全国人口普查数据,利用普查存活比法系统测算1953-2020年东北三省净迁移人口规模、性别年龄结构的特征和变迁,评估人口迁移对东北三省人口发展的影响。研究发现东北人口净迁移经历了人口大量净迁入、净迁入萎缩、人口波动净迁出、大量净迁出四个阶段。各阶段净迁移人口年龄结构特征可依次概括为：劳动年龄人口及随迁儿童大量净迁入、劳动年龄人口及儿童净迁出、老年人口净迁出和全年龄人口净迁出。新中国成立初期人口净迁入提高了东北人口增量和人口红利,1982年后人口迁移对东北人口存量削弱作用逐步增强并在2000年后成为东北人口变动的主导因素。劳动力外迁消减了东北人口红利,老年人口外迁降低了老龄化程度、延长了东北人口红利,但这两种作用已逐步消失。黑龙江人口变动受人口净迁移影响最大,吉林次之,辽宁最为有限。当前,东北三省均已进入以人口净迁出为主导的人口负增长阶段,应从振兴经济、改善民生、引导观念等多方面着...     

我国八十年代末期区域间人口迁移和经济发展

<正> 以往对迁移的研究多集中在对迁移原因的研究,而对迁移结果的研究则尚少(廖正宏:《人口迁移》)。本文试用空间均衡的理论讨论中国八十年代末期人口迁移对区域“人口分布”与“经济发展分布”的影响。本文第一部分说明了数据的来源及其局限;第二部分讨论了人口再分布对区域间人口分布与经济发展分布影响的四种可能性;第三部分     

东北老工业基地人口资源与经济发展研究

东北老工业基地是近年来国家重点改造区域,对人口资源需求较大,但近年来辽吉黑三省人口始终保持净迁出状态,东北老工业基地面临严峻的人口资源匮乏问题,成为地区经济发展的障碍。以区域为中心的经济发展符合市场主体多元化发展的需要,区域经济发展可以促进人口资源的有效配置,合理配置人口资源可以实现公共领域中的所有资源及价值的最大化使用,可以缓解人口资源流失对区域经济发展产生的负面影响,进而推动东北地区经济的发展。     

近年来苏联的人口迁移政策

在社会生活中,人口的迁移活动无疑起着积极的作用,这突出地表现在经济、社会和人口的构成等方面。人口的地区再分布能够消除各地区和各居民点对劳动力的需求与实际存在之间的不平衡状况。因此有必要在符合经济发展的需要和保障人口潜力平衡的基础上制定出人口迁移政策。但是,不适当的迁移政策会加深迁移给社会所带来的不良影响。另外,迁移过程规模过大也会破坏人口、经济和社会的结构。     

我国人口老龄化水平的区域差异及其分解研究

本文运用方差及其分解等区域差异研究方法,定量分析了我国人口老龄化水平在东、中、西部及省际问的差异,结果表明：我国的人口老龄化水平区域差异不均衡,东、中、西部区域对应人口老龄化水平的“高、中、低”。区际间的差异及东部区域的省际差异有减小的趋势但是总体省际间差异却在不断扩大．尤其是中部和西部区域的省际差异。为此,需要社会共同努力应对人口老龄化水平不均衡所带来的影响。在此基础上,提出了相关的对策措施。     

Key natural impacting factors of China’s human population distribution

China is a large country with a population of 1.292 billion, accounting for 1/5 of the world population. However, the geographical distribution of population is greatly unbalanced. There are many factors contributing to the unbalanced population distribution, including natural condition, social and economic development, and transportation infrastructure. In this article, we specifically explore how natural factors (resource and geographical factors) influence the population distribution. We use the multiple linear regression to analyze how the county population and prefecture (districts under city administration) population density is influenced by different natural factors. The analysis is conducted at two scales: the national scale and the regional scale (including east region, northeast region, middle region and west region). Our results show that arable land proportion, precipitation, elevation, accumulated temperature (also called Effective Accumulated Temperature (EAT), means the sum of daily temperature for the period of daily mean temperature (Td) above 10°C) and the distance from energy distribution location, the distance from main rivers are the significant factors for all the counties in China. For the prefectures, the significant impacting factors include elevation, arable land proportion and distance from the main rivers. For the east region, elevation and arable land proportion are the significant impacting factors of population distribution. For the northeast region, arable land proportion, precipitation and accumulated temperature are the significant impacting factors. For the middle region, arable land proportion, accumulated temperature, distance from energy distribution location and elevation are the significant impacting factors. For the west region, arable land proportion, precipitation, distance from the main rivers, distance from energy distribution location and accumulated temperature are the significant impacting factors.     

中国人口老龄化区域差异与收敛性研究

本文通过对中国人口老龄化空间分布特征的分析，得出各地区人口老龄化程度普遍加深且存在空间聚集性，呈现东部沿海－中部－西部内陆的扩张规律，形成了沿长江流域严重老龄化聚集地带。此外，全局和局部 Moran 指数显示我国人口老龄化存在显著的全局和局部空间正相关关系。于是考虑空间相关性，借鉴经济增长收敛性的研究方法，建立空间计量模型，发现我国地区间人口老龄化存在绝对β收敛，且收敛速度较快。     

Relating briefly the natural resources and the population problems of China]

Problems in population, manifested primarily as either "over" or "under" population, are ultimately related to the development of natural resources. Land is the most basic of natural resources. China's land mass is largely mountainous, with 56% of its more than 2000 counties, 1/3 of its population, 40% of its cultivated land and a majority of its forests, situated in mountainous regions. The quality and the distribution of the various kinds of land are complex and uneven. Although China is rich in forests, grazing, and arable land compared to the rest of the world, its 1 billion population makes the land a limited resource. The limitations of the land are also seen in soil erosion, soil that is increasingly turning into sand, and deforestation. Water resources are not considered scarce, yet compared to the rest of the world, it is limited. Its distribution is very uneven, with more water in the east and west, and less in the north and south. In the southwest mountainous border regions, for instance, water is abundant, but the population and arable land there is such that the demand for water is low. Moreover, droughts and heavy precipitation make the annual water supply unpredicatable. The demand for water becomes increasingly greater as agricultural production develops further, the population increases and as the cities continue to expand. living matter as a resource includes all the animal and plant life that is necessary for livelihood, but only forests and grasslands are discussed here. China's forests, if their use is not abused, can serve as a continuous supply for manufactured products. But its distribution is uneven and sparse. Population control will be ineffective if the forests are not replenished and developed. Grasslands are the primary source for animal products. The natural grasslands, found mainly in the north and west, are not as productive as that of other nations due to the nature of China's topography, the vagaries of climate, and deterioration. Energy, the source for fuel, includes such natural resources as coal, petroleum, natural gas, hydraulic, and solar power. China is among the world's richest in energy resources, yet the supply is sometimes insufficient when spread among 1 billion people.     

The Process of Familization of Migration in China

China is a transitional and developing country with the largest population and number of farmers in the world, and shows a striking feature of urban-rural dual structure. The major content in China＇s rising modernization is the process of urbanization transformation, urbanization of small and middle-sized city in China should become the basic path selection. Which involves three important issues： concept, people, and institution. Only based on the modernization of concept, people and institution, there will automatically generate the modernization of industry, agriculture, technology and national defense, and thus consistently developing prosperous of both the country and the citizens.     

迁移与滞留：广东省人口老化的区域特征研究

论文描述了广东省人口老化的基本过程,分别从经济区、大城市、农村、外来人口聚集区与人口大规模外流区等多个层面上分析了人口老龄化的区域特征。指出了区域发展不平衡导致的青年人的流动和老年人口滞留在经济相对滞后的区域是影响人口老化区域差异的重要因素。     

人力资本对我国区域经济发展影响之实证研究

本文分析了我国的人口素质存量现状、各省时人力资源的利用效率以及净迁移率、人口年龄结构和人力资本等与人均GDP的关系。使用了横截面回归和1990年、2000年两次人口普查面板数据分析相结合的方法．研究发现：其一,人力资本教育投资发挥着重要效应,平均受教育年限对提高人均GDP有明显的促进作用。同时8年平均受教育年限是个基本分界点：其二,区域间存在较大的人力资本利用效率的差异,有10个省市人力资本利用效率较高．其中90％集中在东部地带。其三。人口迁移对人均GDP即经济效率的提高有显著性影响。文章呼吁重视9年义务教育、鼓励人口自由迁移和充分把握我国的人口机会窗口期。     

Effects of migration on the educational levels of the black resident population at the origin and destination, 1955–1960 and 1965–1970

Using the 1960 and 1970 census data, this paper analyzes the net effects of the interregional migration of black males on the educational levels of the resident black male population at the regions of origin and destination. Significant variations are observed in the educational selectivity of out-migrants from each region, by region of destination. Comparing the educational levels of the return migrants to the South with those of the resident population in the nonsouthern regions provides no evidence that the return migrants are "failed" migrants. The net effect of interregional migration on the educational levels of the black male resident population at the regions of origin and destination is insignificant in most age groups, for both the 1955--1960 and 1965--1970 periods. In particular, in-migration from the South to nonsouthern regions has little effect on the educational levels of the resident population in most age groups. In fact, for nonsouthern regions, out-migration is more detrimental to the educational level of the resident black male population than is in-migration from the South. Furthermore, the net effect of interregional migration has declined from the 1955--1960 period to the 1965--1970 period.     

Spatial Effect of Population –Economic Distribution Consistency in China

China＇s male marriage squeeze and its potential consequence have attracted much attention and given rise to debate, but most studies contribute this squeeze to sex structure and neglect the age structure, and some studies use flawed method to study the contribution of age structure in this squeeze. In this paper we develop an indicator of Spousal Sex Ratio （SSR） and apply a decomposition method into age and sex structure. Based on the data from China＇s 2010 census and projection, we predict that from 2010 to 2020, the age structure will be the dominant factor for China＇s male marriage squeeze, and from 2020 to 2034, the contribution of sex structure will be increasing, whereas that of age structure will be decreasing. From 2034 to 2045, China＇s male marriage squeeze will mainly from imbalanced sex structure, and the age structure will contribute little or negatively to China＇s male marriage squeeze.     

四川省人口区域分布与区域经济发展

四川省人口区域分布与中国人口分布有极相似之处:东密西疏。这种不平衡的分布有它的规律性,必然性,靠单方面的人为的力量改变这种分布不均是困难的。这种人口的分布影响到了区域经济的发展。认识到这种人口分布的客观性和规律性,才能正确引导川西经济的可持续发展。