IBM Japan's market-driven personnel strategy

This article describes the changes in strategy and in personnel policy at IBM Japan. These changes were prompted by new trends in the labour market and in society. Three new directions in human resource planning were established:

1. (1) more active hiring and utilization of women,

2. (2) training an increasing number of new recruits

3. (3) utilization and motivation of middle-aged and older employees who are also increasing in number.

This strategy has to be viewed in the context of the personnel policy of the parent company and the specific arrangements in Japan.     

Establishing corporate objectives at Solvay

A step by step account of the method used for determining corporate objectives at the Solvay Company, one of Europe's major chemical manufacturers, written by the Assistant Director of Long Range Planning. He emphasises the need for:

1. 1. a careful analysis of data to establish facts about the past and the probable future of the company and its environment.

2. 2. a “hierarchy of objectives” varying from the “grand design” to the specific project.

3. 3. objectives which are quantified and specific.

4. 4. a dialogue amongst management to set objectives which are realistic and acceptable to line executives.

The article is supplied with practical examples, taken from the chemical industry and business generally.     

U.S. government recognizes new institutional form

A new institutional form has been growing in the United States since World War II for helping to accomplish technology-intensive public programs and improve public policy. The form — a so-called “Federally-Funded Research and Development Center” (FFRDC) — has now been officially recognized at a very high level of the Government.This article describes FFRDCs and their history, lists the important roles they can play on public problems, and concludes that the advantages they offer will not be fully utilized if they continue to be treated by some as an anomaly in the institutional makeup of the U.S. economy.     

Environmental scanning—Does it help the chief executive?

Firms must correctly identify and analyze the nature of their strategic environments, their strategic oppurtunities and problems, and, formulate the precise strategy sets for corporate strategy for accomplishing the chosen organizational objectives and goals. This articles reports on a survey. Chief executives of industrial corporations provided their insights and experience (see Appendix I) and the findings are analyzed for the implications for other practising chief executives. The nature of environment which is strategic to a particular firm has considerable influence upon the firm's choice of strategies. The correct understanding of this influence is critical to the firm's organizational effectiveness. Only after a correct understanding can the chief executive formulate the precise mix of strategies and meld them in the strategy sets of the corporate strategy.The major findings indicate that the levels of difficulty experienced in accomplishing firm's objectives and goals depend upon the perceived nature of complexity, unpredictability and dynamism of the firm's strategic environments. The levels of clarity on strategic issues also depend upon these same attributes of environments. The formulation of strategy sets of corporate strategy are indicative of the ways by which the chief executive and his management team expect the firm to achieve its major objectives and goals by monitoring the strategy sets to keep in tune with the changing realities of the firm's strategic environments. General management, marketing and finance, were the vital group strategies, followed by production and research and development. External relations, personnel and procurement were the least important strategies. Firms operating in simple and stable environments experienced the least difficulty in achieving corporate goals, while firms in dynamic and complex environments experienced the greatest difficulty.     

Dynamic capabilities,entrepreneurial rent-seeking and the investment development path: The case of Samsung

As noted by Narula and Dunning [Narula, R., Dunning. J.H., 2000. Industrial Development, Globalization and Multinational Enterprise: New Realities for Developing Countries. Oxford Development Studies, 28, 141–167.], it has been observed that some of the more advanced developing countries, those rapidly ‘catching-up’, outpaced the postulated Investment Development Path (IDP), in which the strategic asset-seeking type of outward foreign direct investment is supposed to occur in later stages, i.e., when countries reach the higher “developed” levels of economic progress. Firms who led the outpacing in those countries did so through their entrepreneurial commitment to upgrade technological capabilities to maintain and augment their O-advantages rather than because of the overall economic development of their home country. Samsung Electronics' recent success in the semiconductor industry allows us to identify and analyse the factors whereby it not only utilised status-quo resources but also developed dynamic capabilities as it rose to the top. Aggressive and risk-taking investment behaviour in search of entrepreneurial rent and the effective policy of managing technology development contributed to the extraordinary achievement of Samsung Electronics. The company's remarkable transformation over the last decade or so can shed light on how a firm's dynamic capabilities, the ability to improve its O-advantages by reconfiguration, transformation and learning, contribute to its home country's idiosyncratic development path.     

Successfully implementing strategic decisions

Ninety-three company presidents completed a questionnaire evaluating the implementation of one strategic decision each in their respective firms. Ten strategy implementation problems were experienced during implementation by over 50 per cent of the sample group. Firms experiencing high success in implementation, according to an index of implementation success, were compared with the low-success firms to determine which problems were rated at significantly different levels. In 11 instances, the mean rating for the high-success implementation firms was significantly lower in terms of problem intensity. Follow-up interviews with 21 presidents (plus 25 governmental agency heads later on) identified five factors which help promote successful implementation.     

基于股价预测的泛证券投资组合策略

本文基于期望效用最大化和L₁-中位数估计研究了在线投资组合选择问题。与EG（Exponential Gradient）策略仅利用单期价格信息估计价格趋势不同,本文将利用多期价格信息估计价格趋势,以提高在线策略的性能。首先,基于多期价格数据,利用L₁-中位数估计得到预期价格趋势。然后,通过期望效用最大化,提出一个新的具有线型时间复杂度的在线策略,EGLM（Exponential Gradient via L₁-Median）。并通过相对熵函数定义资产权重向量的距离,进而证明了EGLM策略具有泛证券投资组合性质。最后,利用国内外6个证券市场的历史数据进行实证分析,结果表明相较于UP（Universal Portfolio）策略和EG策略,EGLM策略有更好的竞争性能。     

基于方案占优和排序稳健性的多属性决策方法

在多属性决策问题中,不同的属性权重会产生不同的评价结果。由于实际问题的复杂性与不确定性,决策者对于属性权重的确定也存在不确定性。这些不确定既来自现实问题的复杂性和可变性,也来自决策者选择的模糊性与随机性。目前已有的研究主要是将不确定的权重信息转化为相对确定的信息（如转化为区间数等）,硬性地消除了不确定,从而给决策结果带来较大风险。本文从方案排序的视角出发,研究在权重空间下,方案的占优关系和排序的稳健性。首先,定义了占优矩阵用于刻画不确定权重信息下方案两两比较的占优关系;其次,分析了方案的排序区间,即在所有可能存在的权重组合下,方案的最好排序和最差排序。然后,定义了方案的全排序排序概率,并且给出了排序概率的计算方法。进而,我们给出了方法的决策步骤和实施过程。最后,本文将该方法应用到某远洋集团的港口评估当中。     

基于心智模型的恐怖主义袭击扩展式演化博弈分析

政府反恐措施与恐怖分子袭击手段存在着相互观察、适应性演化的过程。本文首先构建了政府作为先行动者、恐怖分子作为后行动者的斯塔克伯格博弈模型,进一步建立了恐怖袭击问题的扩展式演化博弈模型。由于扩展式演化博弈的均衡分析需要考虑代际内和代际间不同层次的信念学习,造成了演化分析的复杂性。本文将"心智模型"概念引入到演化博弈,采取了心智模型演化解的分析方法,得出了简化后的演化均衡解。最后,结合新疆墨玉县6.28暴恐事件进行算例分析,比较怀特流形演化解和心智模型演化解的差异。心智模型演化解的结果表明,根据恐怖分子群体中选择袭击比例是否高于临界值,政府策略收敛到防御或者不防御。该求解方法通过将普遍接受的社会规范引入到演化过程分析,不仅简化了怀特流形的分析过程,而且均衡解展示了更为丰富的、更为切合实际管理问题的演化特征。     

和谐一致性与组织绩效

绩效良好的组织往往在环境、组织、领导和战略(EOLS)之间保持着高度的和谐一致.和谐管理理论认为,和谐的管理可以带来良好的组织绩效,一致性是和谐的基础.该文系统回顾和借鉴了西方战略理论中有关一致性的研究成果,通过对216家中国公司的实证分析发现,绩优组织中的环境、组织、领导和战略,以及表示它们变量之间的一致变动的显著相关性更为明显.对 EOLS 一致性的实证研究结论支持了和谐理论中一致性的基本假设,同时也丰富和发展了西方战略一致性理论在中国情景下的应用.     

Strategic thinking with computers

The author describes the development of a system of cognitive mapping as a strategic management tool. Strategic Options Development and Analysis (SODA) has been used extensively by project teams working on strategic issues. A typical programme is described and the procedure is based on attention to the ownership of data as the basic material, and on the design of strategy workshops using the owned data. This appendix describes the use of the system in practice and the benefits and drawback perceived in running the strategy workshop.     

考虑服务水平与动态转移规律的共享单车投放策略研究

为实现共享单车行业的精细化、科学化的运营管理,解决共享单车的过度投放问题。首先,对单车运营系统进行分析和描述,明确投放量优化涉及的核心研究问题。将研究范围界定在单车投放环节,利用马尔可夫链与状态转移矩阵来分析和描述单车的流转过程;从需求被满足概率的角度描述共享单车系统的服务水平并据此分析各投放点的单车需求量。在分析和描述的基础上,提出单车投放量优化的核心问题。其次,基于需求量的约束与单车流转规律,构建不同调度方案下的投放量优化模型,结合可行解空间变化对目标函数最优值的影响,分析最优单车投放量的性质。得出结论认为：（1）对时空的细分,有助于更准备地把握需求,最优单车投放量也会增加。（2）可以通过调度频率的增加,减少单车的投放量,但投放量有上、下限。最后,结合案例数据,对状态转移概率矩阵和服务水平约束下节点的需求量进行了计算,并据此对优化模型进行数值求解,展示了所构建模型的应用过程,说明了模型对于解决具体问题的可操作性和有效性。文章的模型及相应的求解过程,可为解决资源的优化配置问题提供参考和借鉴。     

Explaining performing R&D through alliances: Implications for the business model of Italian dedicated biotech firms

In recent years management scholars and practitioners have been interested in Research and Development (R&D) partnering, especially in high-tech industries. While the motivations of research partnership formation have been widely explored in literature, little attempt has been undertaken to examine the effects of research partnerships on R&D productivity and the implications for business models of the new ventures. In this paper we try to shed some light on the business models of the young ventures involved in R&D partnerships and their effect on R&D productivity. Our hypotheses are that experience in previous alliances, repeated partnerships and tight relationships have positive effects on R&D productivity while rigid governance structures and public R&D subsidies have negative effects on such productivity. We discuss how these aspects affect the business models of biotech firms. We test our hypotheses on a sample of 55 Italian DBFs (Dedicated Biotech Firms). Results support our hypotheses. Managerial implications and further issues for future research are discussed.     

Trait Predictors of Aggression and Crash‐Related Behaviors Across Drivers from the United Kingdom and the Irish Republic

Aggressive driving is acknowledged as a contributor to motor vehicle crashes. This study explored a theoretical model of aggressive expression and crash‐related outcomes using self‐report data collected, using an online questionnaire, from drivers in the United Kingdom and the Republic of Ireland. The proposed model tested whether the personality traits of boredom proneness, sensation seeking, and impulsivity, coupled with trait driving anger, predicted aggressive driving; and whether aggressive driving predicted crash‐related outcomes (loss of concentration and control, near misses, and moving violations). The structural model was confirmed, with aggressive expressions of anger being found to mediate the relationships driving anger and impulsivity had with the crash‐related outcomes. Multigroup invariance analysis showed that the model remained invariant across drivers from the United Kingdom and Ireland, suggesting that the contributing factors for aggressive expression and crash involvement are similar across both countries. When self‐reported crash‐related conditions were compared between drivers in the United Kingdom and Ireland, drivers in the United Kingdom reported more aggressive driving, more minor crashes, more incidents of road rage, and more frequent losses of concentration and vehicle control.     

带预算约束的广告主均衡报价研究——基于纳什均衡角度

从广告主角度出发，研究基于纳什均衡概念的带有预算约束的关键词拍卖问题。首先推导出纳什均衡下各个广告主报价的上界和下界。其次给出广告主报价向上偏离无利可图的充要条件，并进行了数值分析。此外，通过数值实例分析了广告主报价向下偏离时对其收益的影响。利用各个广告主报价的上下界和预算刻画了带有预算约束的纳什均衡。最后，利用广告主报价在纳什均衡下的上界给出报价向量是带预算约束的纳什均衡的充要条件。对于广告主制定预算策略具有参考作用。     

考虑后悔规避的灰色群体偏离靶心度决策方法

针对指标值、指标权重以及状态概率均为区间灰数的风险型多指标群决策问题,考虑决策者的后悔规避的心理行为,提出基于后悔理论和区间灰数信息的群体偏离靶心度决策方法。该方法将后悔理论融入到群决策过程中,建立了各决策者的综合灰色感知效用矩阵,由此定义了群体灰色正负靶心以及灰色群体偏离靶心度;以灰色群体偏离靶心度综合值最大化为目标、同时结合极大熵原理构建优化模型并解出最优专家权重向量,利用灰色群体偏离靶心度大小对方案进行排序;最后,通过具体算例验证了该方法的有效性和实用性。     

目标导向层次分析方法

对含有抽象属性的多属性层次结构而言,层次分析法即AHP（包括DIS-AHP、ABS-AHP、IDE-AHP和SUP-AHP四种具体方法）会因比率比较基准缺失、权重内涵模糊不清或方案评价不保序而缺乏科学理性。为发展AHP,基于摆幅置权（SW）判断模式和多属性决策属性价值公度方法,首先给出了能为层次结构抽象属性上的SW判断提供支持的规约性多属性决策属性价值公度方法,然后由此并结合多属性价值理论给出了能够克服现有层次分析法内在缺陷的目标导向层次分析方法即ToAHP。相对于AHP,ToAHP在判断模式与权重内涵、方法建构的理论基础和相关假设检验、方案评价保序与其内在数理依据上具有明显的相对科学合理性。应用分析表明：在输入信息可比的条件下,ToAHP明显优于AHP的四种分析方法之中最具可信性的SUP-AHP方法。     

供应链企业投资RFID技术的博弈均衡研究

本文以两条竞争供应链（每条供应链均包含一个制造商和一个零售商）为研究对象,基于其是否投资无线射频识别（Radio Frequency Identification,RFID）技术,分别构建了两条供应链均不投资RFID（N情景）、供应链1投资RFID（S1情景）,供应链2投资RFID（S2情景）,及两条供应链均投资RFID（T情景）的收益模型,求解出相应的最优解并探讨供应链投资RFID的均衡策略。研究发现：相较于N情景,单条供应链投资RFID技术对其竞争供应链成员收益产生"负外部性"。当RFID成本较低时,供应链的均衡策略为T情景;当RFID成本较高时,错放率较低的供应链不采用RFID技术,其竞争供应链将采用RFID技术以提高自身的竞争力。     

Supply Chain Strategy,Product Characteristics,and Performance Impact: Evidence from Chinese Manufacturers*

Supply chain management has become one of the most popular approaches to enhance the global competitiveness of business corporations today. Firms must have clear strategic thinking in order to effectively organize such complicated activities, resources, communications, and processes. An emerging body of literature offers a framework that identifies three kinds of supply chain strategies: lean strategy, agile strategy, and lean/agile strategy based on in‐depth case studies. Extant research also suggests that supply chain strategies must be matched with product characteristics in order for firms to achieve better performance. This article investigates supply chain strategies and empirically tests the supply chain strategy model that posits lean, agile, and lean/agile approaches using data collected from 604 manufacturing firms in China. Cluster analyses of the data indicate that Chinese firms are adopting a variation of lean, agile, and lean/agile supply chain strategies identified in the western literature. However, the data reveal that some firms have a traditional strategy that does not emphasize either lean or agile principles. These firms perform worse than firms that have a strategy focused on lean, agile, or lean/agile supply chain. The strategies are examined with respect to product characteristics and financial and operational performance. The article makes significant contributions to the supply chain management literature by examining the supply chain strategies used by Chinese firms. In addition, this work empirically tests the applicability of supply chain strategy models that have not been rigorously tested empirically or in the fast‐growing Chinese economy.     

Warning Systems and Defense Policy: A Reliability Model for the Command and Control of U.S. Nuclear Forces

The U.S. Command, Control, Communication and Intelligence System (C³I) includes sensors (e.g., satellites and radars), communication links, and computer systems that allow gathering and processing of information that a missile attack on the continental United States may be on the way. The choice of a policy of response to such an attack depends in part on the reliability of the information coming from the C³I. We consider in this study four possible response policies: (1) launch on impact, (2) launch on attack assessment, (3) launch under attack, and (4) launch on warning. We propose a method to compute, for each policy, the probability of accidental nuclear strike and the probability of being unable to respond due to a malfunction of the C³I or to partial destruction of the response forces. We include in our system the launch authorization steps (permissive action links) and a very crude analysis of the survivability of second strike forces. We examine the variations of probabilities of Type I and Type II errors and the tradeoffs involved when shifting from a policy of launch on impact to another launch policy. We conclude that this simple but powerful method allows one to gain a good grasp on some of the complex issues involved.