复杂交互行为影响下的网络舆情演化分析

如今网民参与网络舆情的现象愈加普遍,但国内网络舆情治理体制不完善,网络舆情事件易造成严重的负面影响,研究网络舆情的重要性日渐显著。基于演化博弈研究复杂网络中的网络舆情能够反映网络舆情形成和演化的实际情况,可以为引导相关主体参与网络舆情的行为和控制网络舆情的演化提供科学依据。本文在网络舆情的复制动态模型中引入两个可以反映网民复杂交互行为的因素:创建新博弈连接的行为偏好以及维持博弈连接的时间长短,在此基础上构建网络舆情演化博弈模型。根据演化博弈均衡解,分析、解释个体复杂交互行为因素以及网民初始得益对网络舆情演化的影响并针对不同情境提出相应的舆情治理建议。研究表明在交互连接达到稳态时,网络舆情博弈的得益矩阵会发生改变,新的得益矩阵由原来得益矩阵中的元素乘以其相应的博弈连接类型的活跃连接占比而构成。本文定量地解释相关主体间复杂的交互行为,研究结果对网络舆情危机处理以及疏导,减少网络舆情事件对社会的危害等都有参考价值。     

The SERVICE Framework: A Public‐service‐dominant Approach to Sustainable Public Services

In this paper we argue that the new public management has been a flawed paradigm for public services delivery that has produced very internally efficient but externally ineffective public service organizations. Subsequently we develop the SERVICE framework for sustainable public services and public service organizations. This framework is rooted within the public‐service‐dominant business logic and emphasizes the need for a focus on external value creation rather than internal efficiency alone.     

Macroeconomic Effects of Public‐Sector Unions

Motivated by the highly unionized public sectors, the high public shares in total employment, and the public‐sector wage premia observed in Europe, this paper examines the importance of public‐sector unions for macroeconomic theory. The model generates cyclical behavior in hours and wages that is consistent with data behavior in an economy with highly unionized public sector, namely Germany during the period 1970–2007. The union model is an improvement over a model with exogenous public employment. In addition, endogenously determined public wage and hours add to the distortionary effect of contractionary tax reforms by generating greater tax rate changes, thus producing higher welfare losses.     

公共管理与中国发展——公共管理学科发展的回顾与前瞻

从20世纪70年代末起在中国大地开始进行的历史性变革到现在已经超过20年了。在这场变革中 ,以经济学为代表的许多社会科学学科做出了重要的贡献。随着中国改革的深入与发展 ,随着改革重点从提高效率为主到效率与公平兼顾 ,从市场经济体制的建设向民主与法制社会的转变 ,越来越多的改革实践问题向中国的社会科学领域的学者 ,尤其是向公共管理领域的学者 ,提出了挑战。如果说经济学在中国前一时期的改革与发展中成为社会科学领域中的带头学科 ,那么中国未来的改革与发展则迫切要求公共管理加入到带头学科的行列之中。随着公共管理专业硕士 (MPA)学位教育在中国的开展 ,更多的人们开始了解公共管理这个学科领域在中国改革与发展中的重要地位与作用 ,开始关注这个学科的工作及成果。本刊自2002年第2期开始 ,创办“中国公共管理论坛”这个栏目 ,就是希望能够在中国公共管理领域的学者之间 ,在公共管理领域的学者和实践者之间 ,搭起一座桥梁 ,提供一个学术交流的园地 ,使公共管理不辱使命 ,承担起历史的重任 ,为中国进一步的改革与发展做出其应有的贡献。本栏目的创办得到了清华大学公共管理学院的大力支持 ,他们还专门为本期组织撰写了首篇文章 ,旨在理清国内外公共管理学科的历史发展脉络 ,对有关公共管理学     

Belief in Public Efficacy, Trust, and Attitudes Toward Modern Genetic Science

Government and policymakers want to engage the public in a dialogue about the conduct and consequences of science and increasingly seek to actively involve citizens in decision-making processes. Implicit in this thinking is that greater transparency and public inclusion will help dispel fears associated with new scientific advancements, foster greater public trust in those accountable, and ultimately increase the acceptability of new technologies. Less understood, however, are public perceptions about such high-level involvement in science and how these map onto public trust and attitudes within a diverse population. This article uses the concept of public efficacy -- the extent to which people believe that the public might be able to affect the course of decision making -- to explore differences in trust, attentiveness, and attitudes toward modern genetic science. Using nationally representative data from the 2003 British Social Attitudes Survey, we begin by examining the characteristics of those who have a positive belief about public involvement in this area of scientific inquiry. We then focus on how this belief maps on to indicators of public trust in key stakeholder groups, including the government and genetic scientists. Finally, we consider the relationship between public efficacy and trust and attitudes toward different applications of genetic technology. Our findings run contrary to assumptions that public involvement in science will foster greater trust and lead to a climate of greater acceptance for genetic technology. A belief in public efficacy does not uniformly equate with more trusting attitudes toward stakeholders but is associated with less trust in government rules. Whereas trust is positively correlated with more permissive attitudes about technologies such as cloning and gene therapy, people who believe in high-level public involvement are less likely to think that these technologies should be allowed than those who do not.     

基于公理设计和功能过剩的公共住房撮合分配方法

公共住房的合理分配是关系保障性安居工程成败及可持续发展的"生命线"。公共住房分配中缺乏科学规划和依据,既难以保障公共住房资源分配的"公平正义",也在一定程度上造成了效率缺失。本文借鉴双边匹配思想,给出了一种基于公理设计和功能过剩的公共住房撮合分配方法,构建了一个公共住房撮合分配多目标优化决策模型。文中给出的公共住房分配案例计算表明,该方法有利于提高公共住房撮合分配的科学性、合理性及正确性,具有一定的可行性和适用性。基于相关系数权重的数值模拟试验,研究进一步探讨了住房保障的发展阶段、住房保障策略与最优撮合分配结果的关系,为公共住房分配提供了一些策略:在住房保障起步和发展阶段,应当优先考虑较高的保障覆盖面,同时也应避免公共住房对保障需求过剩;在住房保障发展成熟和完善阶段,则应当注重提高住房保障的保障水平,尽力满足住房保障对象更高水平的住房改善需求。     

Möglichkeiten der Öffentlichkeitsarbeit für Krankenhäuser

Possibilities of public relations for hospitals While it is normal for hospitals in the USA to advertise or to do public relations, it is rather uncommon in Germany. Since hospitals in Germany are faced with rising competition and budget restrains of the public health system it seems they are recognizing more and more, that it is difficult to compete in the market without doing public relations. Therefore basic possibilities to reach certain target groups with public relations are presented. Subsequently the case of the Schlosspark-Klinik demonstrates, how it is possible to create public relations, which are strictly oriented towards the main strategy of the hospital.     

财政风险:从经济总量角度的分析

在干预公共风险的过程中,政府会承受各种各样的支出压力,这些支出压力表现为政府的各种形式的负债,即未来一个时期政府资源的流出。作为公共主体,政府面对的债务是不确定的,不能仅仅从会计学角度来认定。公共债务与经济总量是一种历史的循环关系,不同的循环状态决定了政府财政风险是趋向收敛还是发散。不同的债务结构对经济总量及其增长产生不同的影响,因而具有不同的风险。认清不同公共债务类型的来源、不确定性程度及其风险可控性,是把握公共债务与经济总量的关联向哪一种循环转化的重要一环,仅仅关注债务总量是远远不够的,抽象地谈公共债务负担率的高低没有意义。改善公共债务结构,降低整个公共债务的不确定性程度至关重要,这比控制债务规模更迫切。     

基于博弈分析的公共服务民营化中的责任关系研究

公共服务民营化改革中,存在着政府与公共服务的代理企业之间的责任不清和相互推诿的问题。在分析政府与代理企业的责任分工的基础上,运用混合博弈方法,分析探讨了通过监督等措施来促使公共责任实现的途径,并根据以上分析建立公共服务民营化中的从公众到代理企业的责任关系模型。     

舆论危机的异化极化效应研究

随着Web2.0时代的到来,网络媒体逐渐成为舆论生成、传播和交锋的主阵地,舆论危机的形成及其异化也成为日益突出的社会风险问题.本文以舆论的异化演化机理为研究对象,通过梳理典型事件舆论话题的异化过程,对其基本内涵、表现形式和演化模式等进行系统总结.随后,研究以舆论超网络模型为基础,借鉴社会影响理论的基本原则,提出舆论异化机理的极化算法,并对其具体流程进行解析和实现.最后,本文以“7·23甬温动车事故”为例,对舆论危机的异化极化过程和影响因素进行系统仿真和实证分析.     

网络舆论危机事件的蔓延扩散效应研究

随着Web2.0时代的到来,网络媒体已成为公共危机及其风险传播的主要途径,舆论危机的形成和演化也成为日益突出的社会风险问题。其中,网络舆论的蔓延过程及其机理的研究是舆论危机研究的重点,并逐渐受到学者的关注和社会的重视。本文以舆论危机的蔓延机理为研究对象,通过收集和梳理近年来发生的20起网络舆论危机事件,对舆论蔓延的基本内涵、表现形式和驱动因素等进行系统总结。随后,以蔓延驱动因素的研究为指导,考虑蔓延的"内部影响因子"和"外部影响因子"等,构建舆论蔓延扩散的一般性模型,并对模型的极值点和拐点等进行剖析。最后,本文以"7·23甬温动车事故"为例,对其网络舆论的蔓延扩散模型进行拟合、回归和分析。     

考虑公众参与环境行为的公共健康两方博弈演化模型研究

公众参与环境行为是深化生态文明改革的重要组成部分,对化石能源消费排放引发的公共健康水平有着不可忽视的影响。将“公众参与”作为博弈模型的主要策略参数,“政府”与企业设为公共健康影响主要主体。运用演化博弈构建了公共健康影响主体交互机制博弈模型,基于复制动态方程原理与问卷调查数值仿真方法,详尽分析了公共健康主体各相关要素交互演化路径的变化快慢。研究结果表明：模型有{监管,不转型},{监管,转型}两个演化稳定策略。公众参与环境治理程度以及公众自身健康关心度对企业能源转型和政府监管演化路径有显著正向影响,同时与“政府”和企业自身特征相关;公共健康损失赔偿大小是政府监管与企业实行能源转型的重要因素;政府监管知识掌握程度、能源政策执行力、企业能源转型成本大小及额外收益极大影响公共健康主体演化路径;学习型“政府”的监管更能有效加快企业能源转型。同时发现,只有各主体参数共同改变,其中公众参与环境行为群体达90%以上时,公共健康损失才会显著下降;单一主体不能有效作用于公共健康水平;目前,{政府不监管,实行能源转型}这一最理想演化博弈策略在我国国情下还未出现。本文为激发公众参与环境行为、助推企业能源转型与提升公共健康政策的制定提供了新的视角。     

Public–private versus public ownership and economic performance: evidence from Italian local utilities

In the last century local public services have often been reformed. The declared outcome of the most recent reforms is the privatization and liberalization of the sector. However, in almost all European countries, the privatization of local public services has been only partial, because local governments have sought to privatise a minority stake in the public owned-companies, while remaining committed to retaining public ownership and control over the longer-term as a means of protecting public interest. The phenomenon of mixed public–private companies emerged as a result of this process. In this context, the article investigates whether differences in financial performance can be found between public–private companies and totally public-owned enterprises. Empirical quantitative studies on this particular topic are quite lacking at the moment. The present study tries to fill this gap through an empirical analysis on a sample of 623 Italian local utilities. The results of the study suggest that there are differences in economic performance between local utility companies with varying degrees of public ownership. In particular, public–private utilities show better economic performance than publicly owned firms, especially in terms of profitability. The results also seem to suggest that the majority private ownership is not necessary for better performance. In other terms, public–private partnership—and not private majority ownership—seems to be the key point for good performance.     

Determinants of the Job Satisfaction of Public Officials: Testing the Mediation Effect of Organizational Commitment

Public Organization Review - Extant public management research investigated the determinants of public employees’ job satisfaction. However, most public management studies tested the...     

A Public Transportation Decision‐Making Model within a Metropolitan Area

Understanding the decision‐making factors associated with public transportation is essential in strategic development of public transportation to improve acceptance and utilization of mass transit systems. This research analyzes factors affecting attitudes toward public transportation and the choice of transportation mode by investigating the public transportation decision‐making process of working professionals using a survey methodology. The objectives of this research are to model the transportation decision‐making process of public transportation users in a metropolitan area and to determine key factors that affect the public transportation choices made by potential public transportation users. This study contributes to the literature by developing and testing an integrated theoretical framework for modeling an individual's public transportation decision‐making process using four independent variables: Perceived Public Transportation Security, Knowledge, Price, and Convenience. We develop the proposed theoretical framework based upon the extant literature and tested it using partial least squares structural equation modeling (PLS‐SEM). Based on the Theory of Reasoned Action, the Theory of Planned Behavior, and utility theory, we develop the factors and refine associated items using confirmatory factor analysis.     

Public Procurement and Public Financial Management in Africa: Dynamics and Influences

Public Organization Review - How do public procurement practices influence effective public financial management (PFM) in Africa? Notwithstanding the several public procurement reforms to improve...     

Social Amplification of Risk in the Internet Environment

This article analyzes the dynamic process of risk amplification in the Internet environment with special emphasis on public concern for environmental risks from a high‐speed railway tunnel construction project in South Korea. Environmental organizations and activists serving as social stations collected information about the project and its ecological impact, and communicated this with the general public, social groups, and institutions. The Internet provides social stations and the public with an efficient means for interactive communication and an open space for active information sharing and public participation. For example, while the website of an organization such as an environmental activist group can initially trigger local interest, the Internet allows this information to be disseminated to a much wider audience in a manner unavailable to the traditional media. Interaction among social stations demonstrates an amplifying process of public attention to the risk. Analyses of the volume of readers’ comments to online newspaper articles and public opinions posted on message board of public and nonprofit organizations show the ripple effects of the amplification process as measured along temporal, geographical, and sectoral dimensions. Public attention is also influenced by the symbolic connotations of risk information. Interpretations of risk in religious, political, or legal terms intensify public concern for the environmental risk.     

Doing More with Less? Employee Reactions to Psychological Contract Breach via Target Similarity or Spillover during Public Sector Organizational Change

Many countries are facing the twin pressures of austerity and recession following the 2007–2008 global financial crisis. This paper uses the UK public sector and a major national announcement of budget cuts signalling extensive organizational cutbacks as its setting. We examine (a) whether organizational changes following the national announcement affect public sector employees' psychological contract breach, (b) whether employee reactions to psychological contract breach are consistent with the target similarity model and vary across foci, namely the organization, co‐workers and public service users, and (c) whether some of these relationships are moderated by job insecurity or public sector commitment. We collected longitudinal survey data before and after the announcement of budget cuts, using a sample of 340 employees from a range of public organizations and locations. Results largely confirm the hypotheses. Increases in organizational change predicted psychological contract breach, which in turn predicted decreases in contributions towards the organization; however, contributions towards co‐workers and public service users were unaffected, which can be explained with a target similarity, rather than a spillover, model. Furthermore, the relationship between breach and employee behaviours directed toward the public was moderated by job insecurity and public sector commitment.     

Public Knowledge of and Involvement with Metropolitan and Local Strategic Planning in Australia

Despite academic and practitioner debate surrounding public involvement in planning, little is actually known about the extent to which the public is aware of the planning process. The focus of this paper is the examination of the underlying, latent public knowledge of the planning system in Australia. This latent knowledge (or more accurately, the absence of this knowledge) emerges as a barrier to public involvement. This paper examines public perceptions of the importance of metropolitan and local strategic plans, knowledge of these plans, the main sources of this knowledge, and the extent to which the public is likely to become involved with strategic planning process. The paper concludes that despite large segments of the population viewing strategic planning as important, only a small proportion is actually aware of the plans themselves, while an even smaller proportion is likely to become involved in the planning process.