内生规则、官方规则与社会秩序

近年来对法制本土资源、民间法的研究已呈红火之势,然而,对其中的一些基本问题却仍然没有较为清晰的认识,如民间法的构成、民间法与国家法的关系以及民间法、国家法与社会秩序之间的关系等问题就存在这样或那样的误解。本文拟从一个生活中的实例出发,力图对民间法研究中的这些基本论题,特别是后一问题作一些引玉之分析。     

The essential ranking of decision rules in small panels of experts

For small panels of experts (e.g., boards of managers, courts, specialized committees), n 5, this paper provides an algorithm for ranking the seven efficient and commonly used weighted majority rules by their respective performance. These rules are terned efficient since they constitute the set of potentially optimal decision rules in uncertain, symmetric, pairwise choice situations. The main contribution of this study is the discovery of an essential ordering of six of these rules which entails that the set of possible ranking of the seven rules is almost single peaked.The essential ordering significantly reduces the number of possible rankings of the rules, and thus, simplifies the development of the ranking algorithm. The essential ordering has important applications when the available information on the experts' decisional skills is incomplete.     

The impact of risk sharing on efficient decision

A group of risk-averse members must choose among monetary risks and payoff-sharing rules. Departure from the status quo requires unanimous consent. Such groups drill for oil, bail out nations, and make hostile takeover bids. Assume agreement on probabilities. As is well known, if all members have identically shaped HARA utility functions, efficient group act-choices follow another such function independently of payoff sharing. We show that all other groups inevitably have complex efficient behavior, accepting gambles among individually unacceptable lotteries in almost every status quo position. We also develop proper risk aversion for groups, and treat disagreement on probabilities.Support of the Associates of the Harvard Business School (Pratt) and the Business and Government and Energy and Environmental Policy Centers (Zeckhauser) is gratefully acknowledged. We received helpful comments from Scott Johnson, Mark Machina, and a referee. Jay Patel provided assistance beyond the call of collegiality.     

Choice procedure consistent with similarity relations

We deal with the approach, initiated by Rubinstein, which assumes that people, when evaluating pairs of lotteries, use similarity relations. We interpret these relations as a way of modelling the imperfect powers of discrimination of the human mind and study the relationship between preferences and similarities. The class of both preferences and similarities that we deal with is larger than that considered by Rubinstein. The extension is made because we do not want to restrict ourselves to lottery spaces. Thus, under the above interpretation of a similarity, we find that some of the axioms imposed by Rubinstein are not justified if we want to consider other fields of choice theory. We show that any preference consistent with a pair of similarities is monotone on a subset of the choice space. We establish the implication upon the similarities of the requirement of making indifferent alternatives with a component which is zero. Furthermore, we show that Rubinstein's general results can also be obtained in this larger class of both preferences and similarity relations.The nontransitiveness of indifference must be recognized and explained on any theory of choice and the only explanation that seems to work is based on the imperfect powers of discrimination of the human mind whereby inequality becomes recognizable only when of sufficient magnitude.     

Order in Transitional China and Its Institutional Logic

The development of order in transitional China is not merely a matter of institutional supply, but also a matter of defining the state’s special roles and functions in the transition period. Since reform and opening up, China has sought to realize the twin governance aims of high speed development of the socialist economy and maintenance of stability, which require that the state simultaneously undertake the dual roles of modern government and national capital. The consequent adjustments to the governance structure are expressed in the state’s devolution of power to the market while reserving government pricing power; devolution of power to local governments while reserving power over central tasks; and affirming social rights while reserving the power to approve social organizations. At the institutional level, the externalities produced by this “quasi-decentralized governance structure” are marked by the shrinkage of arrangements for collective welfare, the absence of mechanisms for routine security in ordinary life, and the development of mechanisms that allow the government to profit from the market. This may result in the instrumentalization of government functions and the capitalization of public power, producing imbalances in the distribution of social rights, wealth and risk, or in other words, social instability.     

Preference extension rules for ranking sets of alternatives with a fixed cardinality

This paper analyzes the problem of deriving a ranking of fixed-cardinality subsets of a universal set from a given ranking of the elements of this universal set. Only subsets with a given number of elements are being ranked, which is where the approach in this paper differs from the literature on extension rules that establish preference relations on the power set of the universal set. Common examples for areas where such preferences on subsets with a fixed cardinality are needed are elections of committees of a given size, many-to-one matchings, and decision problems under ignorance. The main result of the paper is a characterization of a class oflexicographic rank-ordered rules by means of two axioms, namely, aresponsiveness condition used in the matching literature and a well-knownneutrality requirement which ensures that the names of the alternatives are irrelevant for the ranking of the sets.     

On the inference rules in legal logic

推论规则是逻辑学研究的核心内容。法律逻辑是一门应用逻辑,但它并不是形式逻辑的推论规则在法律领域中的简单运用,而是形式逻辑的推论规则加上法律领域中的特殊推论规则的结果。因此,法律逻辑中的推论规则与形式逻辑中的推论规则相比,既有共性的一面,又有个性的一面。其共性表现为形式逻辑的基本推论规则是构成法律逻辑中的推论规则必不可少的组成部分,其个性表现为法律逻辑中有着与形式逻辑中的推论规则所不具有的特殊推论规则——证明责任规则。     

Identifying endogenous fiscal policy rules for macroeconomic models

The forecast and policy simulations based on macroeconomic models are used in many instances as an important input into policy decision-making. In this paper, we present a model-based method for identifying fiscal closure rules in stochastic macroeconomic models. The methodology is based on the stability analysis of the model at hand, with an endogenous derivation of a reaction on the part of the fiscal authority to state variables in the model. The rule achieves the dual aim of imposing solvency on the fiscal sector and generating a state-contingent dynamic adjustment in a framework consistent with the properties of the model. The approach differs from the standard practice of deriving fiscal closure rules in large macroeconomic forecasting models in both its derivation and implementation. An example of the endogenously derived rule, including some illustrative results, is provided using a small calibrated macro model     

发展和谐文化要处理好四个关系

和谐文化是社会主义文化建设的重要组成部分,是社会主义和谐社会建设的引领。建设和谐文化,要处理好主导文化与多元文化的关系、文化冲突和文化相融的关系、文化继承和创新的关系、人与社会发展的"两本"关系。     

中俄日三角关系的互动规律

近年来,中日关系的不稳定引发俄日、中俄关系的变化。本文通过对中俄日三角关系及其相互影响规律的研究,认为日本加强与俄罗斯的合作有着多层的战略考虑,其基本意图是满足国内经济需求,改善日俄关系,平衡中国的崛起。从长远来看,日本虽极力拉拢俄罗斯,但对中俄两国合作产生的负面作用有限,中俄关系的发展前景更为乐观。在中俄战略协作伙伴关系不断加强的趋势下,中俄日三角关系的互动始终呈现两边长、一边短的状态,这与日本和美国建立、发展紧密的同盟关系,从而对中俄两国构成直接的安全威胁有关。受中俄日三角关系特点的制约,东北亚地区的多边合作很难展开。     

Disciplining qualitative decision exercises: Aspects of a transempirical protocol

This paper defines and defends certain procedural and instrumental initiatives taken to constitute a transempirical protocol. This protocol is intended to provide one avenue for extending the bounds of rationality to decision exercises where there are only limited opportunities for effecting objective or empirical discipline. That is, the practical purpose of the protocol's facilities is to help prevent decision exercises that must be conducted in the face of a signal sparsity of objective/empirical predicates from degenerating into an uncontrolled retreat from reason.The paper is divided into two essentially self-contained parts. Part I will try to establish the rationale for the transempirical protocol in light of the reach and limits of other decision-theoretic platforms, and briefly introduce the set of provisions it entails. Part II will then go through a technical elaboration of these provisions, suggesting how they might be brought towards operational significance.     

Bidirectional relations between internalizing symptoms and peer victimization in late childhood

The present study investigated bidirectional relations between peer victimization and internalizing symptoms, with a focus on three forms of victimization (physical, verbal, relational) and two types of internalizing symptoms (depressive, anxious). In the fall and spring, children (N = 1,264–1,402 fourth and fifth graders depending on time point and data source) reported on their victimization, and teachers reported on children’s depressive and anxious symptoms. In a model including the broad constructs of victimization and internalizing symptoms, bidirectional relations emerged, with earlier victimization predicting increases in later internalizing symptoms and earlier internalizing symptoms predicting increases in later victimization. These bidirectional relations did not hold in two additional models, the first of which included the three forms of victimization and internalizing symptoms and the second of which included victimization and the two types of internalizing symptoms. Rather, results of the first model suggested that earlier internalizing symptoms predicted later physical, verbal, and relational (marginal) victimization, and the second model did not fit the data well. Findings are discussed in terms of implications of bidirectional relations between victimization and internalizing symptoms.     

Evaluating second-order probability judgments with strictly proper scoring rules

Empirical studies have demonstrated that uncertainty about event probabilities, also known as ambiguity or second-order uncertainty, can affect decision makers choice preferences. Despite the importance of second-order uncertainty in decision making, almost no effort has been directed towards the development of methods that evaluate the accuracy of second-order probabilities. In this paper, we describe conditions under which strictly proper scoring rules can be used to assess the accuracy of second-order probability judgments. We investigate the effectiveness of using a particular strictly proper scoring rule the ranked probability score - to discourage biased assessments of second-order uncertainty.     

Similarity and preferences in the space of simple lotteries

A. Rubinstein's similarity-relation approach to decision making under uncertainty is extended by introducing a new concept of correlated similarity relations. It is shown that every expected utility preference is consistent with the -difference similarity relation on the prize space and some correlated similarity relations on the probability space, and that a similarity relation on the prize space and correlated similarity relations on the probability space overdetermine the preference (in A. Rubinstein's sense).Earlier versions were presented at the Edwin Smart Symposium on Games and Economic Behavior, Ohio State University, 1989, the ESEM 1989 Meeting, the EEA 1989 Meeting, the Workshop on Rational and Boundedly Rational Principles of Strategic Behavior, Universität Bielefeld, 1989, and the ASSET 1991 Meeting. We wish to thank the comments received from the participants in those meetings and the stimulating suggestions of S. Ch. Kolm, R. D. Luce, and an anonymous referee. Financial support from the Universidad del Pais Vasco-Euskal Herriko Unibertsitatea, DGCYT (PS 87-0039) and Gobierno de Navarra are gratefully acknowledged.     

Illustrating the interface of family and peer relations through the study of child maltreatment

The developmental study of social adaptation in maltreated children provided the context for examining the linkages between family and peer relations. Participants included 115 school-age children; 59 were maltreated. Teachers and peers in the classrooms of the targeted children provided assessments of the social functioning of individual children. Mothers completed an assessment of their parenting practices. The results demonstrated that teachers perceived maltreated children, particularly physically abused children, as lower in social competence and social acceptance and higher in externalizing behavior problems. Peers were more likely to actively withdraw from or reject maltreated children. Patterns of peer-perceived aggression and withdrawal were examined, and maltreated children who were both aggressive and withdrawn were particularly deficient in social effectiveness. Maltreatment and parenting practices were related to differences in social effectiveness. Continuities in relationship disturbance from families to peers were discussed.     

Psychosocial treatment and relations between children in residential boarding schools and their parents

The present study examined the impact of psychosocial treatment for children in residential boarding schools on relations with their parents and family, and on the extent of the children's satisfaction with the boarding school. Fifty-one boarding schools (91% of the boarding institutions in Israel) participated in the longitudinal study. The sample consisted of 418 respondents, including boarding school directors, social workers, psychologists, programme directors, counsellors, therapists, and house mothers. The findings reveal that the children maintained a moderate level of contact with their parents and families. The children's overall level of satisfaction with the boarding school was found to be moderate, and increased to the extent that they received more hours of psychosocial and therapeutic care.