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1.
A Monte Carlo simulation is incorporated into a risk assessment for trichloroethylene (TCE) using physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling coupled with the linearized multistage model to derive human carcinogenic risk extrapolations. The Monte Carlo technique incorporates physiological parameter variability to produce a statistically derived range of risk estimates which quantifies specific uncertainties associated with PBPK risk assessment approaches. Both inhalation and ingestion exposure routes are addressed. Simulated exposure scenarios were consistent with those used by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in their TCE risk assessment. Mean values of physiological parameters were gathered from the literature for both mice (carcinogenic bioassay subjects) and for humans. Realistic physiological value distributions were assumed using existing data on variability. Mouse cancer bioassay data were correlated to total TCE metabolized and area-under-the-curve (blood concentration) trichloroacetic acid (TCA) as determined by a mouse PBPK model. These internal dose metrics were used in a linearized multistage model analysis to determine dose metric values corresponding to 10-6 lifetime excess cancer risk. Using a human PBPK model, these metabolized doses were then extrapolated to equivalent human exposures (inhalation and ingestion). The Monte Carlo iterations with varying mouse and human physiological parameters produced a range of human exposure concentrations producing a 10-6 risk.  相似文献   

2.
The relative contribution of four influenza virus exposure pathways—(1) virus-contaminated hand contact with facial membranes, (2) inhalation of respirable cough particles, (3) inhalation of inspirable cough particles, and (4) spray of cough droplets onto facial membranes—must be quantified to determine the potential efficacy of nonpharmaceutical interventions of transmission. We used a mathematical model to estimate the relative contributions of the four pathways to infection risk in the context of a person attending a bed-ridden family member ill with influenza. Considering the uncertainties in the sparse human subject influenza dose-response data, we assumed alternative ratios of 3,200:1 and 1:1 for the infectivity of inhaled respirable virus to intranasally instilled virus. For the 3,200:1 ratio, pathways (1), (2), and (4) contribute substantially to influenza risk: at a virus saliva concentration of 106 mL−1, pathways (1), (2), (3), and (4) contribute, respectively, 31%, 17%, 0.52%, and 52% of the infection risk. With increasing virus concentrations, pathway (2) increases in importance, while pathway (4) decreases in importance. In contrast, for the 1:1 infectivity ratio, pathway (1) is the most important overall: at a virus saliva concentration of 106 mL−1, pathways (1), (2), (3), and (4) contribute, respectively, 93%, 0.037%, 3.3%, and 3.7% of the infection risk. With increasing virus concentrations, pathway (3) increases in importance, while pathway (4) decreases in importance. Given the sparse knowledge concerning influenza dose and infectivity via different exposure pathways, nonpharmaceutical interventions for influenza should simultaneously address potential exposure via hand contact to the face, inhalation, and droplet spray.  相似文献   

3.
A screening approach is developed for volatile organic compounds (VOCs) to estimate exposures that correspond to levels measured in fluids and/or tissues in human biomonitoring studies. The approach makes use of a generic physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model coupled with exposure pattern characterization, Monte Carlo analysis, and quantitative structure property relationships (QSPRs). QSPRs are used for VOCs with minimal data to develop chemical-specific parameters needed for the PBPK model. The PBPK model is capable of simulating VOC kinetics following multiple routes of exposure, such as oral exposure via water ingestion and inhalation exposure during shower events. Using published human biomonitoring data of trichloroethylene (TCE), the generic model is evaluated to determine how well it estimates TCE concentrations in blood based on the known drinking water concentrations. In addition, Monte Carlo analysis is conducted to characterize the impact of the following factors: (1) uncertainties in the QSPR-estimated chemical-specific parameters; (2) variability in physiological parameters; and (3) variability in exposure patterns. The results indicate that uncertainty in chemical-specific parameters makes only a minor contribution to the overall variability and uncertainty in the predicted TCE concentrations in blood. The model is used in a reverse dosimetry approach to derive estimates of TCE concentrations in drinking water based on given measurements of TCE in blood, for comparison to the U.S. EPA's Maximum Contaminant Level in drinking water. This example demonstrates how a reverse dosimetry approach can be used to facilitate interpretation of human biomonitoring data in a health risk context by deriving external exposures that are consistent with a biomonitoring data set, thereby permitting comparison with health-based exposure guidelines.  相似文献   

4.
Current practice in carcinogen bioassay calls for exposure of experimental animals at doses up to and including the maximum tolerated dose (MTD). Such studies have been used to compute measures of carcinogenic potency such as the TD50 as well as unit risk factors such as q 1 * for predicting low-dose risks. Recent studies have indicated that these measures of carcinogenic potency are highly correlated with the MTD. Carcinogenic potency has also been shown to be correlated with indicators of mutagenicity and toxicity. Correlation of the MTDs for rats and mice implies a corresponding correlation in TD50 values for these two species. The implications of these results for cancer risk assessment are examined in light of the large variation in potency among chemicals known to induce tumors in rodents.  相似文献   

5.
Based on a variety of maternal occupational and residential inhalation exposure scenarios, estimates of infant exposure to the dry-cleaning solvent tetrachlorothylene (perchloroethylene, PCE) in breastmilk were made. Physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling indicates that infants may be exposed to elevated levels of PCE in breastmilk due to their mothers' inhalation of PCE. The PBPK-predicted breastmilk PCE concentrations agree very well with measured concentrations, where available. Based on this analysis, infants may be exposed to this workplace chemical via breastmilk at doses corresponding to rather high levels of risk. Predicted breastmilk doses provide the infant with little margin of exposure to doses associated with adverse health effects. In addition, the estimated increased cancer risks associated with these infant exposures are large under certain exposure scenarios. The actual concentrations of PCE in breastmilk of exposed mothers can only be known with certainty if monitoring is conducted. Due to the widespread exposure potential, monitoring studies should be undertaken so that the appropriate risk management alternatives can be better evaluated.  相似文献   

6.
Parodi et al. (1) and Zeise et al. (2) found a surprising statistical correlation (or association) between acute toxicity and carcinogenic potency. In order to shed light on the questions of whether or not it is a causal correlation, and whether or not it is a statistical or tautological artifact, we have compared the correlations for the NCI/NTP data set with those for chemicals not in this set. Carcinogenic potencies were taken from the Gold et al. database. We find a weak correlation with an average value of TD50/LD50= 0.04 for the non-NCI data set, compared with TD50/LD50= 0.15 for the NCI data set. We conclude that it is not easy to distinguish types of carcinogens on the basis of whether or not they are acutely toxic.  相似文献   

7.
In Part 1 of this article we developed an approach for the calculation of cancer effect measures for life cycle assessment (LCA). In this article, we propose and evaluate the method for the screening of noncancer toxicological health effects. This approach draws on the noncancer health risk assessment concept of benchmark dose, while noting important differences with regulatory applications in the objectives of an LCA study. We adopt the centraltendency estimate of the toxicological effect dose inducing a 10% response over background, ED10, to provide a consistent point of departure for default linear low-dose response estimates (betaED10). This explicit estimation of low-dose risks, while necessary in LCA, is in marked contrast to many traditional procedures for noncancer assessments. For pragmatic reasons, mechanistic thresholds and nonlinear low-dose response curves were not implemented in the presented framework. In essence, for the comparative needs of LCA, we propose that one initially screens alternative activities or products on the degree to which the associated chemical emissions erode their margins of exposure, which may or may not be manifested as increases in disease incidence. We illustrate the method here by deriving the betaED10 slope factors from bioassay data for 12 chemicals and outline some of the possibilities for extrapolation from other more readily available measures, such as the no observable adverse effect levels (NOAEL), avoiding uncertainty factors that lead to inconsistent degrees of conservatism from chemical to chemical. These extrapolations facilitated the initial calculation of slope factors for an additional 403 compounds; ranging from 10(-6) to 10(3) (risk per mg/kg-day dose). The potential consequences of the effects are taken into account in a preliminary approach by combining the betaED10 with the severity measure disability adjusted life years (DALY), providing a screening-level estimate of the potential consequences associated with exposures, integrated over time and space, to a given mass of chemical released into the environment for use in LCA.  相似文献   

8.
Mark Nicas 《Risk analysis》1996,16(4):527-538
An adverse health impact is often treated as a binary variable (response vs. no response), in which case the risk of response is defined as a monotonically increasing function R of the dose received D. For a population of size N , specifying the forms of R(D) and of the probability density function (pdf) for D allows determination of the pdf for risk, and computation of the mean and variance of the distribution of incidence, where the latter parameters are denoted E[S N] and Var[ S N], respectively. The distribution of S N describes uncertainty in the future incidence value. Given variability in dose (and risk) among population members, the distribution of incidence is Poisson-binomial. However, depending on the value of E[S N], the distribution of incidence is adequately approximated by a Poisson distribution with parameter μ= E[S N], or by a normal distribution with mean and variance equal to E[S N] and Var[ S N]. The general analytical framework is applied to occupational infection by Mycobacterium tuberculosis (M. tb). Tuberculosis is transmitted by inhalation of 1–5 μm particles carrying viable M. tb bacilli. Infection risk has traditionally been modeled by the expression: R(D) = 1 – exp(– D ), where D is the expected number of bacilli that deposit in the pulmonary region. This model assumes that the infectious dose is one bacillus. The beta pdf and the gamma pdf are shown to be reasonable and especially convenient forms for modeling the distribution of the expected cumulative dose across a large healthcare worker cohort. Use of the the analytical framework is illustrated by estimating the efficacy of different respiratory protective devices in reducing healthcare worker infection risk.  相似文献   

9.
10.
We review approaches for characterizing “peak” exposures in epidemiologic studies and methods for incorporating peak exposure metrics in dose–response assessments that contribute to risk assessment. The focus was on potential etiologic relations between environmental chemical exposures and cancer risks. We searched the epidemiologic literature on environmental chemicals classified as carcinogens in which cancer risks were described in relation to “peak” exposures. These articles were evaluated to identify some of the challenges associated with defining and describing cancer risks in relation to peak exposures. We found that definitions of peak exposure varied considerably across studies. Of nine chemical agents included in our review of peak exposure, six had epidemiologic data used by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA) in dose–response assessments to derive inhalation unit risk values. These were benzene, formaldehyde, styrene, trichloroethylene, acrylonitrile, and ethylene oxide. All derived unit risks relied on cumulative exposure for dose–response estimation and none, to our knowledge, considered peak exposure metrics. This is not surprising, given the historical linear no‐threshold default model (generally based on cumulative exposure) used in regulatory risk assessments. With newly proposed US EPA rule language, fuller consideration of alternative exposure and dose–response metrics will be supported. “Peak” exposure has not been consistently defined and rarely has been evaluated in epidemiologic studies of cancer risks. We recommend developing uniform definitions of “peak” exposure to facilitate fuller evaluation of dose response for environmental chemicals and cancer risks, especially where mechanistic understanding indicates that the dose response is unlikely linear and that short‐term high‐intensity exposures increase risk.  相似文献   

11.
Recent advances in quantitative morphology provide all the tools necessary to obtain structural information in the lung that can be quantified and interpreted in the three-dimensional world of toxicology. Structural hierarchies of conducting airways and parenchyma of the lung provide: (1) numbers of cells per airway, lobe, or lung; (2) surface areas of cells, airways, and alveoli; (3) length of airways and vessels; and (4) volumes of cells, alveoli, airways, vessels, and individual lobes or the entire lung. Unbiased sampling of these subcompartments of the lung requires fractionation of lobes or individual airways. Individual airways of proximal and distal generations are obtained by airway microdissection along one axial pathway and comparisons made between airway generations. Vertical sections of selected airways are used to sample epithelium and interstitium. Using this unbiased approach of quantitative morphology, we have shown that inhalation of low ambient concentrations of ozone ([O3]0.15 ppm) near or at the United States National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) (0.12 ppm O3) induces significant alterations in bronchiolar epithelium and interstitium in nonhuman primates but not rats. The alterations do not appear to be concentration- or time-dependent, thereby bringing into question the current NAAQS that may be at or above the threshold for distal airway injury in primates. Unbiased morphometric methods are critical in a quantitative evaluation of toxicological injury of mammalian tracheobronchial airways.  相似文献   

12.
Estimates of dermal dose from exposures to toxic chemicals are typically derived using models that assume instantaneous establishment of steady-state dermal mass flux. However, dermal absorption theory indicates that this assumption is invalid for short-term exposures to volatile organic chemicals (VOCs). A generalized distributed parameter physiologically-based pharmacokinetic model (DP-PBPK), which describes unsteady state dermal mass flux via a partial differential equation (Fickian diffusion), has been developed for inhalation and dermal absorption of VOCs. In the present study, the DP-PBPK model has been parameterized for chloroform, and compared with two simpler PBPK models of chloroform. The latter are lumped parameter models, employing ordinary differential equations, that do not account for the dermal absorption time lag associated with the accumulation of permeant chemical in tissue represented by permeability coefficients. All three models were evaluated by comparing simulated post-exposure exhaled breath concentration profiles with measured concentrations following environmental chloroform exposures. The DP-PBPK model predicted a time-lag in the exhaled breath concentration profile, consistent with the experimental data. The DP-PBPK model also predicted significant volatilization of chloroform, for a simulated dermal exposure scenario. The end-exposure dermal dose predicted by the DP-PBPK model is similar to that predicted by the EPA recommended method for short-term exposures, and is significantly greater than the end-exposure dose predicted by the lumped parameter models. However, the net dermal dose predicted by the DP-PBPK model is substantially less than that predicted by the EPA method, due to the post-exposure volatilization predicted by the DP-PBPK model. Moreover, the net dermal dose of chloroform predicted by all three models was nearly the same, even though the lumped parameter models did not predict substantial volatilization.  相似文献   

13.
Population growth in California has increased the pressure to convert agricultural land to commercial, industrial, or residential uses. In the ensuing property transactions, buyers and sellers must address the presence of toxic materials in soils such as pesticides, several of which are known to the State of California to cause cancer under Proposition 65. While this statute does not specifically address soil contaminants, the potential scope of its enforcement is sufficiently broad that owners of former agricultural properties may be obliged to provide warning of exposure to potential buyers, occupants, or construction workers about exposure to residues in soil from pesticide applications. However, Proposition 65 provides no guidance on how to assess exposures to chemicals in soil. The U.S. EPA Risk Assessment Guidance for Superfund (RAGS) provides a method for assessing soil-related exposure pathways that is consistent with the intent of Proposition 65. Using this approach, we have calculated the lifetime average concentrations of DDT in soil corresponding to the no-significant-risk level stipulated under Proposition 65 (1 × 10−5) for a hypothetical residential exposure scenario. The concentration of DDT in soil corresponding to a no-significant-risk ranges from 7.9-18.8 mg/kg, depending upon which exposure pathways are deemed to be complete for residential land use. It is argued that Proposition 65 forces the assessment and possible cleanup of such a situation through the threat of creating a health risk perception that could affect the market value of a property.  相似文献   

14.
In the days following the collapse of the World Trade Center (WTC) towers on September 11, 2001 (9/11), the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) initiated numerous air monitoring activities to better understand the ongoing impact of emissions from that disaster. Using these data, EPA conducted an inhalation exposure and human health risk assessment to the general population. This assessment does not address exposures and potential impacts that could have occurred to rescue workers, firefighters, and other site workers, nor does it address exposures that could have occurred in the indoor environment. Contaminants evaluated include particulate matter (PM), metals, polychlorinated biphenyls, dioxins, asbestos, volatile organic compounds, particle-bound polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, silica, and synthetic vitreous fibers (SVFs). This evaluation yielded three principal findings. (1) Persons exposed to extremely high levels of ambient PM and its components, SVFs, and other contaminants during the collapse of the WTC towers, and for several hours afterward, were likely to be at risk for acute and potentially chronic respiratory effects. (2) Available data suggest that contaminant concentrations within and near ground zero (GZ) remained significantly elevated above background levels for a few days after 9/11. Because only limited data on these critical few days were available, exposures and potential health impacts could not be evaluated with certainty for this time period. (3) Except for inhalation exposures that may have occurred on 9/11 and a few days afterward, the ambient air concentration data suggest that persons in the general population were unlikely to suffer short-term or long-term adverse health effects caused by inhalation exposures. While this analysis by EPA evaluated the potential for health impacts based on measured air concentrations, epidemiological studies conducted by organizations other than EPA have attempted to identify actual impacts. Such studies have identified respiratory effects in worker and general populations, and developmental effects in newborns whose mothers were near GZ on 9/11 or shortly thereafter. While researchers are not able to identify specific times and even exactly which contaminants are the cause of these effects, they have nonetheless concluded that exposure to WTC contaminants (and/or maternal stress, in the case of developmental effects) resulted in these effects, and have identified the time period including 9/11 itself and the days and few weeks afterward as a period of most concern based on high concentrations of key pollutants in the air and dust.  相似文献   

15.
Calculation of Benchmark Doses from Continuous Data   总被引:20,自引:0,他引:20  
A benchmark dose (BMD) is the dose of a substance that corresponds to a prescribed increase in the response (called the benchmark response or BMR) of a health effect. A statistical lower bound on the benchmark dose (BMDL) has been proposed as a replacement for the no-observed-adverse-effect-level (NOAEL) in setting acceptable human exposure levels. A method is developed in this paper for calculating BMDs and BMDLs from continuous data in a manner that is consistent with those calculated from quantal data. The method involves defining an abnormal response, either directly by specifying a cutoff x0 that separates continuous responses into normal and abnormal categories, or indirectly by specifying the proportion P0 of abnormal responses expected among unexposed subjects. The method does not involve actually dichotomizing individual continuous responses into quantal responses, and in certain cases can be applied to continuous data in summarized form (e.g., means and standard deviations of continuous responses among subjects in discrete dose groups). In addition to specifying the BMR and either x0 or P0 , the method requires specification of the distribution of continuous responses, including specification of the dose-response θ(d) for a measure of central tendency. A method is illustrated for selecting θ(d) to make the probability of an abnormal response any desired dose-response function. This enables the same dose-response model (Weibull, log-logistic, etc.) to be used for the probability of an abnormal response, regardless of whether the underlying data are continuous or quantal. Whenever the continuous responses are normally distributed with standard deviation σ (independent of dose), the method is equivalent to defining the BMD as the dose corresponding to a prescribed change in the mean response relative to σ.  相似文献   

16.
17.
Estimating Consumer Exposure to PFOS and PFOA   总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4  
Perfluorinated compounds have been used for more than 50 years as process aids, surfactants, and for surface protection. This study is a comprehensive assessment of consumer exposure to perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS) and perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) from a variety of environmental and product-related sources. To identify relevant pathways leading to consumer exposure to PFOS and PFOA a scenario-based approach has been applied. Scenarios represent realistic situations where age- and gender-specific exposure occurs in the everyday life of consumers. We find that North American and European consumers are likely to experience ubiquitous and long-term uptake doses of PFOS and PFOA in the range of 3 to 220 ng per kg body weight per day (ng/kgbw/day) and 1 to 130 ng/kgbw/day, respectively. The greatest portion of the chronic exposure to PFOS and PFOA is likely to result from the intake of contaminated foods, including drinking water. Consumer products cause a minor portion of the consumer exposure to PFOS and PFOA. Of these, it is mainly impregnation sprays, treated carpets in homes, and coated food contact materials that may lead to consumer exposure to PFOS and PFOA. Children tend to experience higher total uptake doses (on a body weight basis) than teenagers and adults because of higher relative uptake via food consumption and hand-to-mouth transfer of chemical from treated carpets and ingestion of dust. The uptake estimates based on scenarios are within the range of values derived from blood serum data by applying a one-compartment pharmacokinetic model.  相似文献   

18.
Due to the hydrophobic nature of synthetic based fluids (SBFs), drilling cuttings are not very dispersive in the water column and settle down close to the disposal site. Arsenic and copper are two important toxic heavy metals, among others, found in the drilling waste. In this article, the concentrations of heavy metals are determined using a steady state "aquivalence-based" fate model in a probabilistic mode. Monte Carlo simulations are employed to determine pore water concentrations. A hypothetical case study is used to determine the water quality impacts for two discharge options: 4% and 10% attached SBFs, which correspond to the best available technology option and the current discharge practice in the U.S. offshore. The exposure concentration ( CE ) is a predicted environmental concentration, which is adjusted for exposure probability and bioavailable fraction of heavy metals. The response of the ecosystem  ( RE )  is defined by developing an empirical distribution function of predicted no-effect concentration. The pollutants' pore water concentrations within the radius of 750 m are estimated and cumulative distributions of risk quotient  ( RQ = CE / RE )  are developed to determine the probability of RQ greater than 1.  相似文献   

19.
Humans are continuously exposed to chemicals with suspected or proven endocrine disrupting chemicals (EDCs). Risk management of EDCs presents a major unmet challenge because the available data for adverse health effects are generated by examining one compound at a time, whereas real‐life exposures are to mixtures of chemicals. In this work, we integrate epidemiological and experimental evidence toward a whole mixture strategy for risk assessment. To illustrate, we conduct the following four steps in a case study: (1) identification of single EDCs (“bad actors”)—measured in prenatal blood/urine in the SELMA study—that are associated with a shorter anogenital distance (AGD) in baby boys; (2) definition and construction of a “typical” mixture consisting of the “bad actors” identified in Step 1; (3) experimentally testing this mixture in an in vivo animal model to estimate a dose–response relationship and determine a point of departure (i.e., reference dose [RfD]) associated with an adverse health outcome; and (4) use a statistical measure of “sufficient similarity” to compare the experimental RfD (from Step 3) to the exposure measured in the human population and generate a “similar mixture risk indicator” (SMRI). The objective of this exercise is to generate a proof of concept for the systematic integration of epidemiological and experimental evidence with mixture risk assessment strategies. Using a whole mixture approach, we could find a higher rate of pregnant women under risk (13%) when comparing with the data from more traditional models of additivity (3%), or a compound‐by‐compound strategy (1.6%).  相似文献   

20.
We employ the intake fraction (iF) as an effective tool for expressing the source-to-intake relationship for pollutant emissions in life cycle analysis (LCA) or comparative risk assessment. Intake fraction is the fraction of chemical mass emitted into the environment that eventually passes into a member of the population through inhalation, ingestion, or dermal exposure. To date, this concept has been primarily applied to pollutants whose primary route of exposure is inhalation. Here we extend the use of iF to multimedia pollutants with multiple exposure pathways. We use a level III multimedia model to calculate iF for TCDD and compare the result to one calculated from measured levels of dioxin toxic equivalents in the environment. We calculate iF for emissions to air and surface water for 308 chemicals. We correlate the primary exposure route with the magnitudes of the octanol-water partition coefficient, Kow, and of the air-water partitioning coefficient (dimensionless Henry constant), Kaw. This results in value ranges of Kow and Kaw where the chemical exposure route can be classified with limited input data requirements as primarily inhalation, primarily ingestion, or multipathway. For the inhalation and ingestion dominant pollutants, we also define empirical relationships based on chemical properties for quantifying the intake fraction. The empirical relationships facilitate rapid evaluation of many chemicals in terms of the intake. By defining a theoretical upper limit for iF in a multimedia environment we find that iF calculations provide insight into the multimedia model algorithms and help identify unusual patterns of exposure and questionable exposure model results.  相似文献   

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