The fatality and injury costs of expenditures

All production activities generate health risks to workers. This article employs input-output analysis in conjunction with job-risk data by industry to construct measures of the direct and indirect risks imposed by expenditures. Both fatalities and nonfatal injuries (which include illnesses) are considered. The occupational-risk component of expenditures is generally in the range of 3–4% of costs, with nonfatal injuries contributing the larger share. Expenditure levels that generate a fatality or a lost-workday injury are provided by industry, as are a variety of other measures that consider both created and avoided risks pertinent to risk-risk analyses and cost-effectiveness analyses, respectively.Viscusi's research was supported by EPA Cooperative Agreement number CA-814-388-02 with Duke University. Zeckhauser's research was supported by grant number SES91-11056 from the Decision, Risk and Management Science division of the National Science Foundation. Wassily Leontief and Mark Dreyfus provided excellent input. Please direct all correspondence to Professor Viscusi.     

The Value of a Statistical Life: A Critical Review of Market Estimates Throughout the World

A substantial literature over the past thirty years has evaluated tradeoffs between money and fatality risks. These values in turn serve as estimates of the value of a statistical life. This article reviews more than 60 studies of mortality risk premiums from ten countries and approximately 40 studies that present estimates of injury risk premiums. This critical review examines a variety of econometric issues, the role of unionization in risk premiums, and the effects of age on the value of a statistical life. Our meta-analysis indicates an income elasticity of the value of a statistical life from about 0.5 to 0.6. The paper also presents a detailed discussion of policy applications of these value of a statistical life estimates and related issues, including risk-risk analysis.     

Regulatory review of environmental policy: The potential role of health-health analysis

Health-health analysis (HHA) posits a seemingly unassailable criterion for regulatory assessment: policies intended to protect human health ought to exhibit positive health benefits. Despite the apparent logic of this criterion, it is important to ask whether it would aid in the quest for better public policies. In the context of environmental issues, we find that HHA can be useful by reminding us that it is thenet health impact of a proposed regulation that can be important. However, we also find that in most applications the health impacts of regulatory compliance costs are unlikely to be significant. Conventional benefit-cost analysis ought to remain the principal tool of economic assessment of environmental laws and regulations.     

Preferred allocations with uncertain implementation

In generating preferred courses of action based on benefit-cost analyses, policy scientists usually take implementation for granted. This should clearly not be the case, for rarely is implementation certain. Implementation considerations should become an integral part of any benefit-cost analysis. Various viewpoint concerning implementation are possible: not all of them can be modelled. This paper incorporates some facets of implementation into a multiple-objective, multiple-program resource allocation model. Implementation is introduced in terms of the likelihood of program acceptability. An outline of a more general approach is also presented. The implementation-allocation model developed is applied to a small-scale example which illustrates the types of insights obtainable. The impact of uncertain implementation is seen to be significant.     

服务于天气预报研究的超级计算机投资收益分析

在资源方面的潜在投资的几种成本收益分析方法方面，有几种适用于计算成本收益的经济学方法：（1）效益转移法；（2）基于调查的非市场价值评估法；（3）折扣法；（4）统计生命价值法；（5）专家启发法；（6）影响因素图表法；（7）敏感性分析法等。根据2003年进行的一项研究，特地评估了为美国国家海洋和大气管理局所购买的新的超级计算机设备的潜在收益。该超级计算机不仅有助于改进天气预报服务，而且能使许多经济部门潜在获益，如各种政府机构、一些私营工业部门和单个家庭住户等。通过咨询美国国家海洋和大气管理局的工作人员可知，这些经济部门主要集中在家庭住户、某些农作物和公共安全等领域。美国国家海洋和大气管理局购买的新的超级计算机潜在的社会效益是显著的。基于一些前提假设，仅家庭住户所得到的收益大约在3400万到23200万美元（以2002年美元为基准）之间。某些农业经济部门所获得的收益与避免因天气原因导致死亡的潜在收益一样多。这三个部门的平均总收益的现值约为11600万美元（以2002年美元为基准）。而这仅为总收益额的下限，因为它尚不包含其它几个也具有重要收益价值的行业，如建筑和能源行业等。美国国家海洋和大气管理局投资购买新型超级计算机的收益净现值约为10500万美元（以2002年美元为基准）。     

Are Public Expenditures Associated with Better Child Outcomes in the U.S.? A Comparison across 50 States

Our article utilizes variation across the 50 U.S. states to examine the relationship between public expenditures on children and child outcomes. We find that public expenditures on children are related to better child outcomes across a wide range of indicators including measures of child mortality, elementary school test scores, and adolescent behavioral outcomes. States that spend more on children have better child outcomes even after taking into account a number of potential confounding influences. Our results are robust to numerous variations in model specifications and to the inclusion of proxies for unobserved characteristics of states. Our sensitivity analyses suggest that the results we present may be conservative, yet our findings reveal a strong relationship between state generosity toward children and children's well-being.     

A POLITICAL ECONOMY OF THE SOCIAL WAGE: THE NET SOCIAL WAGE IN AUSTRALIA, 1964–65 TO 1991–92

This article attempts to place the concept and measurement of the social wage into a context of political economy. Several variations on the conventional method of measuring the social wage are proposed and applied to Commonwealth outlays for the period 1964–65 to 1991–92. It is argued that the resulting concept is better suited to an analysis of the impact of government social expenditures on capital accumulation. While the alternative ‘Net Social Wage’ concept must be a qualifiable measure of the redistributive impact of such expenditures, it is argued also that it is a more meaningful one than the conventional measure presented in most studies on this subject.     

The Proportion of Gaming Revenue Derived from Problem Gamblers: Examining the Issues in a Canadian Context

The legitimacy of government-sponsored gambling and its continued expansion depends in part on the impact that gambling has on society and the extent to which gambling revenue is derived from vulnerable individuals. The purpose of the present article is to try to establish a valid estimate of the proportion of gaming revenue derived from problem gamblers in Canada. Using recent secondary data collected in eight Canadian provinces, we estimate this proportion to be 23.1%, compared to a problem gambling prevalence rate of 4.2%. This estimate must be seen as tentative, however, as self-reported expenditures are 2.1 times higher than actual provincial gaming revenues.     

A reappraisal of the social security-fertility hypothesis: A bidirectional approach

There has been considerable debate in the literature regarding the social security-fertility hypothesis. By analyzing 81 countries for which data was available, numerous econometric models were developed to test both the relative importance of social security as a causal factor affecting fertility and the subsequent effect of lower fertility levels on social security expenditures. By controlling for economic development and testing the model at different points in time, the social security variable was found to be causally linked to subsequent fertility levels as well as fertility levels being causally linked to subsequent social security expenditures. Furthermore, the appropriate response lag was identified and various nonlinear functional forms were utilized to control for economic development. Finally, a Chow test was employed to show the existence of structural change between the developed and less developed nations.     

Out-of-Pocket Expenditures and the Financial Burden of Healthcare Among Older Adults: By Nativity and Length of Residence in the United States

Newly arrived older immigrants in the United States tend to be greatly affected by increasing out-of-pocket healthcare expenditures due to their limited insurance options. To examine such disparities in the out-of-pocket expenditures, this study analyzed the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey by immigrant status. Major findings of this study indicated that although recent immigrants had lower total healthcare expenditures, they spent much higher proportions of their annual income on out-of-pocket medical payments, compared with their US-born counterparts. Dramatically higher out-of-pocket burdens among recent immigrants represent a barrier to necessary healthcare, which needs to be addressed from both public health and economic perspectives.     

Impacts of USAID and development assistance toward counterterrorism efforts: Empirical evidence in context of Pakistan

This article studies whether the pursuit of foreign aid for counterterrorism purposes militarizes or mitigates terrorism. It focuses on the USAID and official development assistance (ODA) flows to Pakistan, which recently has experienced an increase due to the presence of deadliest terrorist organizations. By using the time series data from 1985 to 2016, the paper investigated the foreign aid and terrorism nexus for pre‐9/11 and post‐9/11 periods. The empirical estimations of autoregressive distributed lag bound testing approach reported that an increase in military expenditures fuels terrorism in post‐9/11 period and the ODA helps to control terrorism from the country. On the contrary, USAID reported insignificant response toward terrorist attacks in pre‐ and post‐9/11 periods, suggesting that the foreign aid from the United States has no significant impact on counterterrorism policies for Pakistan. The outcomes of the current study can be utilized in policymaking of counterterrorism and to explore the nexus between foreign aid, terrorism, and military expenditures. The paper concludes that the concerns about the use of foreign aid as counterterrorism tool are warranted, but that actual manifestations are nuanced.     

Demographic and Welfare State Predictors of Out-of-Pocket Health Expenditures: A Path Analytic Model

ABSTRACT

Out-of-pocket (OOP) payments are principal components of financing healthcare and have a significant effect on poverty in numerous developing countries. The present study seeks to ascertain the relation among demographic, welfare state, and OOP health expenditure indicators using a path analysis. National representative household budget data from the Turkish Statistical Institute for 2015 were used. To test the goodness of fit of the model, multiple fit indices were utilized. The model fit for redefined path analytic model data was good (X²/df = 70.20/9 = 7.8; RMSEA = 0.032; GFI = 1.00; AGFI = 0.99; CFI = 0.99). The results of the analysis revealed that demographic and welfare indicators are causally related to OOP health expenditures, and income was a mediating factor for this interrelationship. Designing of socially inclusive policies on the basis of the values of equity is essential to combat poverty due to OOP health expenditures in developing countries.     

Drafting “better regulation”: The economic cost of regulatory complexity

Different public agencies are seeking to draft “better regulation”. Complex or poorly drafted norms are more difficult for economic agents to implement, tending to erode economic efficiency. The literature has so far concentrated on the analysis of regulatory complexity as a phenomenon related to the “quantity” of norms. This article guides the process of adopting new regulations, taking into account that norms can also be complex due to new “qualitative” reasons such as linguistic ambiguity or relational structure (references between legal documents). To perform the analysis, we develop new indicators for legibility and regulatory interconnectedness. Specifically, we construct a new database (RECOS – REgulation COmplexity in Spain) by extracting information from 8171 norms (61 million words) which comprise the regulations of all the Spanish Autonomous regions. Our analysis reveals the relationship between measures of “qualitative” complexity and relevant economic (productivity) and institutional (judicial efficacy) variables. This research shows that the new dimensions of regulatory complexity matter, yield significant results and should be taken into account in governments’ “better regulation” policies.     

Crowding Out or Welfare Promotion? How Foreign Aid Affects Social Expenditures in Latin American Welfare Systems

Foreign assistance constitutes a significant share of government revenue in many low‐ and middle‐income economies and is targeted at poverty reduction and the promotion of social and economic well‐being. This study therefore examines fiscal responses by Latin American welfare states to the inflow of such aid. As a form of external non‐tax revenue, aid can function as a substitution for public welfare expenditure, with a crowding out effect being the likely outcome. This article investigates whether overall aid and aid that is particularly targeted at the social sector substitutes public welfare provision and, if so, whether it also substitutes its function. A time‐series cross‐section analysis of 19 Latin American countries for the period 1980–2008 provides limited support for the assumption that foreign aid payments influence the welfare budget. It is only the health care sector in middle‐income countries which experiences a small decrease in expenditures. Social security and education expenditures are not affected.     

The effect of information on health risk valuations

This article examines the effect of familiarity with chronic lung disease on people's willingness to pay to reduce their risk of contracting chronic bronchitis, and on their willingness to increase their risk of auto death to reduce chronic bronchitis risk. We find that persons who have a relative with chronic lung disease are willing to give up more income to reduce their risk of chronic bronchitis than persons with no first-hand knowledge of the disease; however, their willingness to increase their risk of auto death to reduce their risk of chronic bronchitis is no different, on average, than persons with no first-hand knowledge of lung disease. This suggests that responses to risk-risk tradeoffs may be more stable than responses to risk-income choices.This research was sponsored by Resources for the Future and by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Policy Planning and Evaluation, Alan Carlin and Joel Scheraga, project officers. We thank Robert Mitchell for his help in conducting focus groups, and Caroline Harnett and Sari Radin for research assistance. Stan Presser, Sue Dowden, and Tim Triplett of the University of Maryland's Survey Research Center administered the survey. We especially thank Stan Presser for his suggestion that we sample relatives of people with chronic lung disease. We also thank Kip Viscusi, Wes Magat, and Joel Huber for making available their computer programs and data, and Ajay Kalra for programming help. Paul Portney and John Mullahy provided useful comments on an earlier draff of the article, as did two referees.     

Effect of child benefit payments on child outcome expenditures in South Korea

Extensive research has shown the positive impact of conditional child benefits on child outcomes. However, there is limited work on the impact of universal child benefit payments on how families spend on child outcomes. Our study explores this issue. This study examined the relationship between child benefit payments on child outcome expenditures using longitudinal data from the Korean National Survey of Tax and Benefit (N = 3681 households) and a household- and year-fixed effects regression model. We found that child benefit payments are positively associated with child outcome expenditures across family income groups. Furthermore, the analysis results suggest that compared to high-income family groups, low- and middle-income family groups increase spending on child outcome expenditures in response to child benefit payments. Finally, the policy implications of this are discussed.     

Dynamics of the Welfare Mix in the Republic of Korea: An Expenditure Study Between 1990 and 2001

Although non-State sectors have played an important role in people's welfare, their expenditures have usually been excluded from social policy studies when measuring the welfare efforts of a nation. This article experiments with a new approach synthesizing welfare mix research using an expenditure study as a tool and applies the model to the Korean case. It presents the following major findings: first, the welfare system of the Republic of Korea has presented a genuine welfare mix in which the role of non-State sectors has been of immense importance; and second, the dynamics of the welfare mix since 1997 have been largely due to the growing role of the State in social welfare, both directly and indirectly. Based on these findings, this article ultimately urges the necessity of the welfare mix approach in comparative social policy research.     

DISABILITY AND PRODUCTIVE EMPLOYMENT: A PREDICTION OF FAILURE AND A PROPOSAL FOR CHANGE

This article will argue that recent disability services legislation has selectively interpreted the concepts of normalisation and integration to focus on employment for people with an intellectual disability as a major policy goal. It will be contended that the nature of the contemporary labour market is such that this goal cannot be fulfilled and therefore that the aim of enhancing quality of life cannot be achieved. The article recommends an approach to the reorientation of policy which is based upon a critical analysis of the cultural position of people with disabilities. In this regard, the notion of cultural productivity is introduced as a framework within which some solutions may be found.     

Forecasting the cost of U.S. Health Care in 2040

One of the most important debates among health economists in rich nations is whether advances in biotechnology will spare their health care systems from a financial crisis. We must consider that prevalence rates of chronic diseases declined during the twentieth century and that this rate of decline has accelerated. However, health care costs may continue to increase even as the age of onset of chronic diseases is delayed, because the proportion of a cohort living to late ages will increase. The accelerating decline in the prevalence of chronic diseases during the course of the twentieth century supports the proposition that increases in life expectancy during the twenty-first century will be fairly large, but the effect on health care in the U.S. will be modest. The income elasticity for health services is calculated at 1.6, meaning that income expenditures on health care in the U.S. are likely to rise from a current level of about 15 percent to about 29 percent of GDP in 2040.     

Multi-level administrative structure and the distribution of social service expenditures: A Nebraska example

During the decade of the 1980s Nebraska restructured its social service (welfare) delivery system. Prior to the change, administrative responsibility for many social service programs was shared between the state and county governments. The restructuring brought the entire program under state administration. A primary reason for this policy change was to eliminate administrative inconsistencies evident in the decentralized structure. This article utilizes 1980 and 1990 data on the distribution of Food Stamp and AFDC program expenditures in Nebraska to analyze the impact of the restructuring on expenditure distribution. The results indicate that expenditures were more equally distributed and that arbitrary decision making was reduced when social service administration was centralized.