An Empirical Analysis of the Effect of Supply Chain Disruptions on Long‐Run Stock Price Performance and Equity Risk of the Firm

This paper investigates the long‐term stock price effects and equity risk effects of supply chain disruptions based on a sample of 827 disruption announcements made during 1989–2000. Stock price effects are examined starting one year before through two years after the disruption announcement date. Over this time period the average abnormal stock returns of firms that experienced disruptions is nearly –40%. Much of this underperformance is observed in the year before the announcement, the day of the announcement, and the year after the announcement. Furthermore, the evidence indicates that firms do not quickly recover from the negative effects of disruptions. The equity risk of the firm also increases significantly around the announcement date. The equity risk in the year after the announcement is 13.50% higher when compared to the equity risk in the year before the announcement.     

RFID for Better Supply‐Chain Management through Enhanced Information Visibility

Mostly fueled by mandates, adoption, and implementation of the RFID, technology in the retail industry is growing rapidly. At these early stages of adoption, one puzzling issue for retailers and suppliers is the compelling business case for RFID. In order to explore the potential business case for RFID, we conducted a case study using actual RFID data collected by a major retailer for the cases shipped by one of its major suppliers. We show the physical layout of the RFID readers on a partial supply‐chain covering product movement from distribution centers to retail stores. First, in the analysis phase, we identify several performance metrics that can be computed from the RFID readings. Next, using this RFID data, we compute the values of those performance metrics. These values represent mean time between movements at different locations. Then, we discuss how these measures can assist in improving logistical performance at a micro supply chain level of operations between a distribution center and a retail store. We present how such information can be valuable to both the retail store operator and the supplier. We also discuss the initial lessons learned from actual RFID data collected in the field, in terms of data quality issues.     

Supply‐Chain Research Opportunities with the Poor as Suppliers or Distributors in Developing Countries

Many social enterprises and some companies have developed supply chains with the poor as suppliers or distributors to alleviate poverty and to create revenues for themselves. Such supply chains have created new research opportunities because they raise issues fundamentally different from those examined in the existing operations management literature. We report this phenomenon of supply chains with the poor as suppliers or distributors in developing countries and identify operations management (OM) research opportunities. We also provide some stylized models to serve as potential seeds for modeling‐based research in this area.     

讨价还价过程与供应链的利润最大化均衡

是否存在一组贴现因子使得轮流出价的讨价还价的完美子博弈均衡刚好实现供应链总体利润最大?本文研究表明当博弈双方的贴现率都趋近于1,各企业利润之和将收敛于供应链的总体利润最大化均衡.接着,证明了当双方的贴现率严格地小于1时,供应链的总体利润不可能达到利润最大化均衡.最后,通过具体的算例来说明所得到的结论.     

Stable and Coordinating Contracts for a Supply Chain with Multiple Risk‐Averse Suppliers

We analyze a decentralized supply chain with a single risk‐averse retailer and multiple risk‐averse suppliers under a Conditional Value at Risk objective. We define coordinating contracts and show that the supply chain is coordinated only when the least risk‐averse agent bears the entire risk and the lowest‐cost supplier handles all production. However, due to competition, not all coordinating contracts are stable. Thus, we introduce the notion of contract core, which reflects the agents' “bargaining power” and restricts the set of coordinating contracts to a subset which is “credible.” We also study the concept of contract equilibrium, which helps to characterize contracts that are immune to opportunistic renegotiation. We show that, the concept of contract core imposes conditions on the share of profit among different agents, while the concept of contract equilibrium provide conditions on how the payment changes with the order quantity.     

Building Supply Chain Resilience through Virtual Stockpile Pooling

Stockpiling inventory is an essential strategy for building supply chain resilience. It enables firms to continue operating while finding a solution to an unexpected event that causes a supply disruption or demand surge. While extremely valuable when actually deployed, stockpiles incur large holding costs and usually provide no benefits until such a time. To help to reduce this cost, this study presents a new approach for managing stockpiles. We show that if leveraged intelligently, stockpiles can also help an organization better meet its own regular demand by enabling a type of virtual pooling we call virtual stockpile pooling (VSP). The idea of VSP is to first integrate the stockpile into several locations’ regular inventory buffers and then dynamically reallocate the stockpile among these locations in reaction to the demand realizations to achieve a kind of virtual transshipment. To study how to execute VSP and determine when it can provide the most value, we formulate a stylized multi‐location stochastic inventory model and solve for the optimal stockpile allocation and inventory order policies. We show that VSP can provide significant cost savings: in some cases nearly the full holding cost of the stockpile (i.e., VSP effectively maintains the stockpile for free), in other cases nearly the savings of traditional physical inventory pooling. Last, our results prescribe implementing VSP with many locations for large stockpiles, but only a few locations for small stockpiles.     

基于讨价还价博弈下的供应链回购合同研究

分析了由一个供应商和一个零售商组成的系统.不确定性需求实现之后,系统成员能够对交易合同参数进行讨价还价,从而确定双方之间的收益分配比例.研究得出,首先,相对于分散控制系统,基于讨价还价下的分散控制系统中,成员之间讨价还价会对供应商收益产生负面影响;而对于供应链系统和零售商而言,收益变化趋势取决于双方之间的讨价还价能力的大小.其次,相对于回购控制系统中,在对回购价格进行讨价还价的回购控制系统中,供应商和零售商在期初所签订的回购合同具有抗讨价还价性;而在对批发价格进行讨价还价的回购控制系统中,回购合同是否具有抗讨价还价性,取决于零售商和供应商之间的相对谈判权利.     

供应链中CSR运作:相互激励、CSR配置与合作

基于Baron为代表的战略CSR观点和一条由上游制造商和下游零售商构成的两级供应链,用制造商和零售商是否被要求实施CSR行为来描述供应链中的CSR配置,分别建立求解了三种CSR配置下的三阶段非合作运作模型。相应的均衡社会业绩和经济业绩之间的比较结果表明,在消费者对供应链中的CSR行为具有积极反应的条件下,由于制造商和零售商的CSR行为之间的策略性互补性导致的相互激励机制,使得“制造商和零售商各自为自己的CSR行为负责”这一CSR配置获得的经济业绩和社会业绩均较高。进一步,合作运作下的Nash讨价还价解显示,由于合作的运作方式可以克服非合作运作中存在于产品交易阶段的双重加价的问题和CSR策略性行为互动阶段的CSR行为动机不足问题,从而可以进一步提高社会业绩和经济业绩。这些结果一方面为解决"哪个节点企业应当对供应链整体的社会责任行为负责"这一争议提供了一个理论回应;另一方面,指出供应链中的CSR行为的管理,重点不是CSR在供应链中如何配置,而在于是否采用合作的运作方式。     

考虑交易安全风险控制投入的在线旅游供应链网络均衡模型

基于包括供应商、平台和消费市场的三层供应链网络结构,利用变分不等式刻画均衡态时在线旅游供应链网络各成员的最优经济行为,以及平台交易安全风险控制投入对供应链平台企业、供应链整体的风险水平和期望收益的影响。研究发现,在平台企业风险控制投入相同情况下,平台和消费市场的产品交易数量和价格大致相同,验证了模型的合理性和有效性。其次,随着交易安全风险控制投入的增加,平台自身交易安全风险下降,供应链网络整体的交易安全水平和交易数量上升,但平台自身的期望收益下降。最后,随着更多的平台加入,平台的期望收益下降,市场需求价格下降,消费者获利。但部分平台企业的搭便车行为,会导致供应链整体的交易安全风险水平上升。     

Channel Coordination with a Risk‐Neutral Supplier and a Downside‐Risk‐Averse Retailer

We investigate how a supply chain involving a risk‐neutral supplier and a downside‐risk‐averse retailer can be coordinated with a supply contract. We show that the standard buy‐back or revenue‐sharing contracts may not coordinate such a channel. Using a definition of coordination of supply chains proposed earlier by the authors, we design a risk‐sharing contract that offers the desired downside protection to the retailer, provides respective reservation profits to the agents, and accomplishes channel coordination.     

物联网环境下的农产品供应链风险评估与控制

随着物联网技术的快速发展,物联网环境下的农产品供应链模式日趋成熟。我国农产品供应链正处在由传统农产品供应链向现代农产品供应链转型的关键时期。新技术手段的应用、新的供应链运作模式,在提升农产品供应链的价值和降低传统供应链风险的同时,也带来了新的风险。首先,根据物联网环境下的农产品供应链运作模式,按照物联网的三个层次对整个农产品供应链上的风险加以识别,总结出来物联网环境下的农产品供应链风险因素包括感知层风险、网络层风险、应用层风险以及其他风险。然后,使用OWA算子对风险因素进行定量评估与排序,接着依据风险评估的结果使用供应链风险扩散收敛模型找出衡量供应链风险波动的定量指标。最后,根据前面模型的计算结果,提出了物联网环境下的农产品供应链风险管理与控制的措施和建议。     

A Continuous‐Review Inventory Model with Disruptions at Both Supplier and Retailer

We consider a continuous‐review inventory problem for a retailer who faces random disruptions both internally and externally (from its supplier). We formulate the expected inventory cost at this retailer and analyze the properties of the cost function. In particular, we show that the cost function is quasi‐convex and therefore can be efficiently optimized to numerically find the optimal order size from the retailer to the supplier. Computational experiments provide additional insight into the problem. In addition, we introduce an effective approximation of the cost function. Our approximation can be solved in closed form, which is useful when the model is embedded into more complicated supply chain design or management models.     

Commentary on Knowledge Creation and Dissemination in Operations and Supply‐Chain Management

The title of this paper might have been Knowledge Creation and Dissemination in the POM Domain . Instead, these accomplished authors (who shall be dubbed with honorable intentions as RSST) define the POM domain as Operations and Supply‐Chain Management. Thereby, they leave no doubt that the POM domain spans the entire supply chain from shovels in the mine and seeds in the ground to recycled waste that is remanufactured and sold as new (as well as refurbished) products. RSST declare that sustainability of the ecosystem cycle must be achieved (even in the face of disaster conditions) by all institutions. RSST believe that practitioners can be taught the necessary attitudes and skills by business and engineering schools. It is noteworthy that the ecosystem cycle they describe is accompanied by marketing and financial decision cycles running parallel from inception of ideas to the “end of life” closure that starts a new cycle for closed‐loop product planning. For these coexisting, interdependent, all‐encompassing systems, the RSST team leaves no doubt about the evolution of teaching and research opportunities for young POM scholars. These authors focus on the fact that everything that is not morphing is likely to become counterproductive in the not too far future. This is a critical point of view which is based on the fact that the status quo is highly vulnerable. Also, very special is the RSST warning that changes are required in the status quo which must be made without damaging the existing fabric. This non‐disruptive way of doing POM business has been remarkably successful for the cohesion of the field over the past 25 years. There is agreement that it is great to shake things up without tearing those things apart. All of this leads to the conclusion that the advice of these authors (RSST) is correct and valuable. Debate and disputation of these points is encouraged and expected by the RSST team.     

Promotion Planning and Supply Chain Contracting in a High–Low Pricing Environment

Demand forecast errors threaten the profitability of high–low price promotion strategies. This article shows how to match demand and supply effectively by means of two‐segment demand forecasting and supply contracts. We find that demand depends on the path of past retail prices, which leads to only a limited number of reachable demand states. However, forecast errors cannot be entirely eliminated because competitive promotions entail some degree of random (i.e., last‐minute) pricing. A hedging approach can be deployed to distribute demand risk efficiently over multiple promotional campaigns and within the supply chain. A retailer that employs a portfolio of forward, option, and spot contracts can avoid both stockouts and excess inventories while achieving the first‐best solution and Pareto improvements. We provide an improved forecasting method as well as stochastic programs to solve for optimal production and purchasing policies such that the right amount of inventory is available at the right time. By connecting a stockpiling model of demand with the supply side, we derive insights on optimal risk management strategies for both manufacturers and retailers in a market environment characterized by frequent price promotions and multiple discount levels. We employ a data set of the German retail market for a key generator of store traffic—namely, diapers.     

供应链提前期风险空间传递机理与控制策略

针对供应链结构特性,本文分析了供应链提前期风险在链状供应链上的空间传递机理;根据风险因素作用的特点,将提前期风险划分为节点企业自身提前期风险、物流延期风险和传递风险。在此基础上,构建了供应链提前期风险空间传递模型和供应链提前期风险控制机理框架,并提出了关键的控制策略;最后通过算例分析验证了模型的有效性。     

差别定价闭环供应链协调应对生产成本扰动研究

文章以一个新产品和再造品存在差别定价的闭环供应链为研究对象,考虑突发事件干扰新产品和再造品生产成本的情况,研究了集中式决策闭环供应链的应对策略,以及收益共享契约协调分散式决策闭环供应链的问题。研究表明:在突发事件干扰下,对于集中式决策闭环供应链,当两种产品生产成本的扰动程度均较小时,原稳定环境下的最优产量决策具有一定的鲁棒性;至少一种产品生产成本的扰动程度较大时,受干扰程度较大的产品应按其生产成本扰动相反的方向进行调整其原稳定环境下的最优产量决策,而另一种产品最优产量的调整方向受扰动程度较大产品生产成本的扰动程度、两种产品的替代系数以及额外单位生产或处理成本的影响。对于分散式决策闭环供应链,两种产品生产成本的扰动程度均较小时,原稳定环境下的收益共享契约仍有效;至少一种产品生产成本的扰动程度较大时,则需改进原稳定环境下的收益共享契约以再次协调闭环供应链,且改进后的契约也能够协调稳定环境下的闭环供应链。最后,通过数值算例验证了模型的合理性及契约协调的有效性。     

基于绿色投资效率的港航供应链投资策略研究

在IMO环境政策约束日趋严格的背景下,绿色投资成为港航企业提升自身竞争优势的方式之一。本文以港口主导的供应链为研究对象,分析三种投资场景与不同成员投资的利益关系,即从绿色技术投资效率对港航供应链的成本效应、绿色技术投入效应、经济效应和市场效应等方面展开分析,最后分析不同投资策略对消费者剩余和社会福利的影响。研究表明：港口绿色技术投资在一定程度上会增加整体供应链的成本投入;当绿色技术投资效率逐步提高时,绿色投入水平不断下降,降低了绿色投入的成本,从而达到“投入高效率,投入水平低增长,整体收益高增长”的投资效果;无论是承运人或是港口进行绿色技术投入,均会增加市场的服务价格,相较于非绿色技术投入,绿色技术投入时会增加整体市场的需求数量;从消费者剩余的角度考虑,承运人绿色技术投入相较于港口绿色技术投入产生的消费者剩余大,也会在一定程度上减少因价格“传递效应”带来的不利影响;从社会福利的角度考虑,虽然绿色投资可能会降低社会福利,但承运人投资产生的社会福利优于港口绿色投资时产生的社会福利;从保护环境的角度,政府的政策制定具有较高的优先级,有助于提升环境收益。研究结果进一步丰富了港航企业绿色投资的研究成果,可为合理权衡绿色技术投资效率,为港口供应链成员的绿色投资决策提供一定的参考,对绿色港口供应链的良性发展具有一定的指导意义。     

Assessing End‐Of‐Supply Risk of Spare Parts Using the Proportional Hazard Model

Operators of long field‐life systems like airplanes are faced with hazards in the supply of spare parts. If the original manufacturers or suppliers of parts end their supply, this may have large impacts on operating costs of firms needing these parts. Existing end‐of‐supply evaluation methods are focused mostly on the downstream supply chain, which is of interest mainly to spare part manufacturers. Firms that purchase spare parts have limited information on parts sales, and indicators of end‐of‐supply risk can also be found in the upstream supply chain. This article proposes a methodology for firms purchasing spare parts to manage end‐of‐supply risk by utilizing proportional hazard models in terms of supply chain conditions of the parts. The considered risk indicators fall into four main categories, of which two are related to supply (price and lead time) and two others are related to demand (cycle time and throughput). The methodology is demonstrated using data on about 2,000 spare parts collected from a maintenance repair organization in the aviation industry. Cross‐validation results and out‐of‐sample risk assessments show good performance of the method to identify spare parts with high end‐of‐supply risk. Further validation is provided by survey results obtained from the maintenance repair organization, which show strong agreement between the firm's and the model's identification of high‐risk spare parts.     

政府激励政策下人造板绿色供应链谈判-协调机制研究

当前我国人造板产业面临效率低下、资源浪费和环境污染等问题,上下游企业缺乏合作与协调。本文界定了人造板绿色供应链系统,运用契约理论和纳什谈判理论,分别构建了政府激励政策下人造板绿色供应链集中优化决策、分散均衡决策和谈判协调决策模型,从而建立了相应的收益分享-成本分担契约谈判协调机制,并基于相关行业和企业经验数据,与传统人造板供应链进行了对比数值分析。研究结果表明:(1)收益分享-成本分担契约谈判-协调机制能够很好地实现人造板绿色供应链的协调运营,提高资源效率,降低环境负影响和提升运营绩效。(2)人造板绿色供应链管理模式下供应链及其成员的最优利润均高于传统管理模式,谈判协调决策情形下供应链及其成员的最优利润均高于分散均衡决策情形。(3)制定有"门槛"的增值税即征即退政策和适当的环境税政策,自建经济林场、选用经济型枝桠材,强化技术研发和工艺改进,有助于提高人造板供应链运营绩效。