Decision Making in Cross‐Functional Teams: The Role of Decision Power*

Through a series of game‐theoretical models, this study systematically examines decision making in cross‐functional teams. It provides a framework for the design of an organization‐specific decision‐making process and for the alignment of a team's microdecision with the “optimal” decision that maximizes the firm's payoff. This study finds that even without changing the team leader, firms could change and even dictate the team's microdecision outcome via adjusting the team member's seniority, empowering team members with veto power or involving a supervisor as a threat to overrule the team decision. This finding implies that to reposition products in the marketplace, structuring cross‐functional teams’ microdecision‐making processes is essential.     

A Smooth Model of Decision Making under Ambiguity

We propose and characterize a model of preferences over acts such that the decision maker prefers act f to act g if and only if 𝔼_μφ(𝔼_πu○f) 𝔼_μφ(𝔼_πu○g), where 𝔼 is the expectation operator, u is a von Neumann–Morgenstern utility function, φis an increasing transformation, and μis a subjective probability over the set Πof probability measures πthat the decision maker thinks are relevant given his subjective information. A key feature of our model is that it achieves a separation between ambiguity, identified as a characteristic of the decision maker's subjective beliefs, and ambiguity attitude, a characteristic of the decision maker's tastes. We show that attitudes toward pure risk are characterized by the shape of u, as usual, while attitudes toward ambiguity are characterized by the shape of φ. Ambiguity itself is defined behaviorally and is shown to be characterized by properties of the subjective set of measures Π. One advantage of this model is that the well‐developed machinery for dealing with risk attitudes can be applied as well to ambiguity attitudes. The model is also distinct from many in the literature on ambiguity in that it allows smooth, rather than kinked, indifference curves. This leads to different behavior and improved tractability, while still sharing the main features (e.g., Ellsberg's paradox). The maxmin expected utility model (e.g., Gilboa and Schmeidler (1989)) with a given set of measures may be seen as a limiting case of our model with infinite ambiguity aversion. Two illustrative portfolio choice examples are offered.     

Formal Infrastructure and Ethical Decision Making: An Empirical Investigation and Implications for Supply Management

Building on Rest's (1986) conceptual model of ethical decision making, we derive and empirically test a model that links an organization's formal ethical infrastructure to individuals’ moral awareness of ethical situations, moral judgment, and moral intention. We contribute to the literature by shedding light on the importance of a multifaceted formal ethical infrastructure—consisting of formal communication, recurrent communication, formal surveillance, and formal sanctions—as a crucial antecedent of moral awareness. In so doing, we discern how these four elements of a formal ethical infrastructure combine to collectively influence moral awareness based on a second‐order factor structure using structural equation modeling. We test our model based on survey data from 805 respondents with significant work experience across three separate ethical scenarios. Our results across the three scenarios provide overall support for our model. We found that a second‐order factor structure for the formal ethical infrastructure explains the variance among the four infrastructure elements and that a multifaceted formal ethical infrastructure significantly increases moral awareness. Our results further suggest a strong positive effect of moral awareness on moral judgment, which in turn was found to have a positive impact on moral intention. These results were substantiated when taking several individual and contextual control variables into account, such as gender, age, religiosity, work satisfaction, and a de facto ethical climate. Implications for theory, practice, and supply management are discussed.     

Quantile Uncertainty and Value‐at‐Risk Model Risk

This article develops a methodology for quantifying model risk in quantile risk estimates. The application of quantile estimates to risk assessment has become common practice in many disciplines, including hydrology, climate change, statistical process control, insurance and actuarial science, and the uncertainty surrounding these estimates has long been recognized. Our work is particularly important in finance, where quantile estimates (called Value‐at‐Risk) have been the cornerstone of banking risk management since the mid 1980s. A recent amendment to the Basel II Accord recommends additional market risk capital to cover all sources of “model risk” in the estimation of these quantiles. We provide a novel and elegant framework whereby quantile estimates are adjusted for model risk, relative to a benchmark which represents the state of knowledge of the authority that is responsible for model risk. A simulation experiment in which the degree of model risk is controlled illustrates how to quantify Value‐at‐Risk model risk and compute the required regulatory capital add‐on for banks. An empirical example based on real data shows how the methodology can be put into practice, using only two time series (daily Value‐at‐Risk and daily profit and loss) from a large bank. We conclude with a discussion of potential applications to nonfinancial risks.     

不确定多属性决策双目标组合赋权模型研究

本文提出了灰距离熵的概念,并把灰距离熵作为区间灰数相离度的一个度量标准,建立了不确定多属性决策属性值的灰距离熵离差最大化模型。并在此基础上, 讨论了基于灰距离熵和极大熵的双目标规划组合赋权模型。从而实现了决策属性区间权重向点值权重的转化。最后并结合具体实例,验证了模型的有效性。     

The Cry Wolf Effect and Weather‐Related Decision Making

Despite improvements in forecasting extreme weather events, noncompliance with weather warnings among the public remains a problem. Although there are likely many reasons for noncompliance with weather warnings, one important factor might be people's past experiences with false alarms. The research presented here explores the role of false alarms in weather‐related decision making. Over a series of trials, participants used an overnight low temperature forecast and advice from a decision aid to decide whether to apply salt treatment to a town's roads to prevent icy conditions or take the risk of withholding treatment, which resulted in a large penalty when freezing temperatures occurred. The decision aid gave treatment recommendations, some of which were false alarms, i.e., treatment was recommended but observed temperatures were above freezing. The rate at which the advice resulted in false alarms was manipulated between groups. Results suggest that very high and very low false alarm rates led to inferior decision making, but that lowering the false alarm rate slightly did not significantly affect compliance or decision quality. However, adding a probabilistic uncertainty estimate in the forecasts improved both compliance and decision quality. These findings carry implications about how weather warnings should be communicated to the public.     

基于方差分析的资本结构决策模型

本文利用统计学原理与风险决策分析方法,提出了资本结构决策新的方差分析方法和矩阵模型.与原有的基于概率分析的方法比较,本文建立的模型方法克服和舍弃了模糊性和难操作性,有效地权衡了风险与收益,使资本结构决策模型更富可操作性和广泛适用性,能够为企业最优资本结构决策提供一定的决策依据.     

Medical Decision Making and Elective Surgery: The Case of Hysterectomy

Review and analyses of three sources of data are presented indicating that 25% of hysterectomies are elective. Annual mortality associated with elective hysterectomy is estimated to be 319, or about 12,122 woman years. Cost-benefit analyses of mortality, life expectancy, morbidity, psychological sequelae, as well as dollar expenditures, reveal high costs and relatively limited benefits. Explanations for this apparent anomaly in decision making are explored and include economic incentives, system structure, sexism, and cancer prophylaxis. Principles of risk perception are discussed in terms of potential biases associated with the cancer prophylaxis motive. It is suggested that physicians' judgements of risk may be more salient to the decision process than those of prospective patients.     

User Acceptance Enablers in Individual Decision Making About Technology: Toward an Integrated Model

Building on recent unique, yet potentially complementary, approaches to understanding the formation of user perceptions about technology (Venkatesh, 1999; Venkatesh & Speier, 1999), the present work reanalyzes the data from both studies to develop an integrated model of technology acceptance. The integrated model specifically examines the influence of pre‐training and training environment interventions (termed user acceptance enablers) to understand how user perceptions are formed prior to system implementation. The model is then further extended and tested using longitudinal data in a field setting. The results indicate that the integrated model emerged as a better predictor of user behavior when compared to the existing models.     

基于有限合作机制的群决策熵模型研究

研究一类具有合作机制的群决策问题。提出两阈值的合作函数对决策人之间的合作关系进行模糊分类,采用模糊测度方法度量决策人和决策人集的权力指数,建立合作群决策的非线性规划熵模型集结权力指数,并基于极大熵的最优化原理求解该模型。利用Choquet模糊积分计算备选方案的综合评价值,并对备选方案排序选择最优方案。最后通过算例分析并验证合作群决策模型和运用模糊积分方法求解模型的合理性、有效性。     

两层群决策的双平台学习与协调模型

为解决现有分层决策方法无法反映决策者真实风险态度、难以保证学习与协调效率或效果的问题,构建了决策信息双平台提取模式和双平台学习协调结构,在此基础上提出了决策信息单平台学习修正模型、基元前景价值双平台系统协调模型以及双平台学习协调分析方法。该新模型方法不仅能够就上下两层在知识结构上的分布性认知优势应用学习修正定理有效地消除两层决策者在单平台上的认知偏差,而且还能系统协调双平台上差异性的决策信息,从而保证所做出的是科学有效决策。基于蒙特卡洛模拟的验证结果表明,新模型方法具有科学有效性和实际应用可行性。     

Decision Analysis and Risk Management Decision Making: Issues and Methods

This paper provides an overview of decision analysis and its use in risk management decision making. The paper discusses the distinctive characteristics of decision analysis and compares these characteristics with those of its principal alternative—cost–benefit analysis. The paper also discusses each of the steps in a decision analysis and the strengths and limitations of the method.     

基于限制优势关系的粗糙决策分析模型

针对信息不完全的偏好多属性决策问题,给出一种基于拓展粗糙集的决策分析模型.首先提出限制优势关系的概念;然后在限制优势关系下得到知识的粗糙近似,给出分类决策规则.对比分析证明,限制优势关系既保留了扩展优势关系的优点,又在一定程度上克服了扩展优势关系的局限性.最后通过一个实例验证了所提出的模型对信息不完备决策系统的处理更符合实际情况。     

Programmed Strategic Decision Making: The View From Mintzberg's Window1

A class of decisions, asset mix decisions made by pension fund managers, which exhibit characteristics of both programmed and strategic choices is examined in this paper. The decisions are classified using the scheme developed by Mintzberg et al., (1976) to highlight the circumstances under which strategic decisions may be programmed. The types of strategic decisions which lend themselves to programming are considered. The advantages and disadvantages of programming strategic decisions are also discussed.     

多属性相对变权决策模型及方法

为克服多因素变权决策方法以及多属性决策Choquet积分模型没有科学反映多属性决策过程中决策者点依赖偏好关联行为的技术缺陷,在借鉴摆幅置权方法和网络分析法技术要点的基础上,运用数据包络分析的相对评价思维,提出一种全新的评价与决策方法即多属性相对变权决策方法。相对于多因素变权决策方法,新方法可以直接反映决策者的点依赖偏好结构,从而可以克服前者在反映点依赖偏好关联行为上所存在的源于决策分析者的武断随意性;相对于多属性决策Choquet积分模型,新方法可以反映决策者的点依赖偏好关联行为,并且在多数实际决策场合可以较有效地规避Choquet积分模型在决策参数判断上的指数复杂性难题。案例应用验证表明：新方法可以给出与决策者关于偏好依赖关联定性看法及客观事实非常相符的选择结论,可以更好地反映决策者的具体偏好。     

移情关系影响下的群体共识决策模型研究

群体成员之间的社会关系及其网络结构特征是影响群决策的重要因素。移情关系是客观存在于一些现实群决策问题中的一种社会关系,但目前考虑移情关系的群决策研究尚不多见。为拓展群决策模型的应用范围,面向移情网络环境提出一种群体共识决策方法,并揭示移情关系对群体共识决策的影响规律。首先,从偏好交互影响的角度出发,构建局部移情模型和全局移情模型,并由此确定移情关系影响下决策者偏好演化的结果。其次,利用个体偏好分解为内在偏好和移情偏好的结构特点,为群体共识达成过程设计一种有效的移情关系引导的反馈机制,该机制可以通过内在偏好层面的偏好调整实现个体偏好层面的共识收敛。最后,数值仿真分析表明：群体成员之间的移情关系提升了群体共识水平,而且全局移情关系比局部移情关系更有利于群体共识的达成;移情网络结构和群体规模是影响移情网络环境下群体共识达成的重要因素。相关决策模型和研究结论可为移情网络环境下的群体共识决策提供理论和方法支持。     

Intergenerational Risk Decision Making: A Practical Example

There is no such thing as intergenerational decision making, at least not yet. In fact, there is no such thing as intragenerational decision making in the context of maximizing overall social good given resource limitations, there are just decisions being made in an ad hoc fashion. Even if one assumes that there is such a thing as intragenerational decision making, no uniform standard or guidance exists to make societal decisions for the common good. Risks to society are judged unevenly within the same agency and across agencies. Decisions are made in isolation and not weighed in the societal context of what is intra or intergenerationally important. The National Academy of Public Administration (NAPA) has set forth a framework for intergenerational decision making that provides a consistent and fair basis for making tough decisions in order to address difficult issues such as the long-term disposal of nuclear wastes. NAPA recognizes that there is an intergenerational obligation that must encompass broader questions than the narrow issue of waste disposal since resources are finite and needs are great. The fundamental principles are based on sustainability with the overarching objective that "no generation should needlessly, now or in the future, deprive its successors of the opportunity to enjoy a quality of life equivalent to its own." Coupled with this objective are four supporting principles of trusteeship, sustainability, chain of obligation, and precaution. The NAPA process also recognizes that no decision can be final and that a "rolling future" view is better than making decisions for "all time." It attempts to balance the needs of the present with those of the future in an open and transparent process that is aimed at producing a decision, not just endless analysis. The U.S. Congress and president should develop a rational standard by which to judge laws that involve intra and intergenerational issues relative to the overall societal good. Present regulations need to be evaluated relative to a uniform level of risk and benefit to assess where the limited money available can do the most good for both the present and future generations in the context of NAPA sustainability principles. It is hoped that decision makers will take a serious look at this process since it can work to resolve stakeholder stalemate.